This years Rams breakout season(BEARS)

[Stinger226]

Last year LA had a high drafted QB, a good defense(ranked 12th)

 They added a high profile offensive mind in Sean McVay.

They added John Sullivan and Andrew Whitworth on the Oline.

They added Robert Woods,/WR in FA, and drafted Cooper Kupp/WR, Josh Reynolds/WR, Gerald Everett/TE in the draft.

They had left over from a 4-12 season, Todd Gurley and Travon Austin. 

They added Sammy Watkins by trade and ended up being the the tenth ranked offense in the league last year.

Goff had 3804 yards, 28 TDs, 7 ints. and rushed for 51 yards on on 28 carries.

Gurley rushed for 1305 yards-13 tds.

Receiving stats

 

Todd Gurley 64-788-6

Cooper Kupp 62-869-5

Robert Woods 56-785-5

Sammy Watkins3959315.2678

Tyler Higbee 25-295-1

Gerald Everett 16-244-2

Tavon Austin 13-473-0

Josh Reynolds 11-104-1

2018 Bears

We add Nagy and several high grade offensive coaches

Fangio came back and  the defense was ranked 9th in total defense

Last year MT had 2193 yards- 7 tds-7 int. Ran for 248 yards and 2 tds. (in 2016 Jared Goff 1093 yards-5 tds-7 ints ran for 16 yards and 1 td)

 

In 2016 Gurley ran for 885 yards at  a 3.2 clip and 5 tds. Last year Howard ran for 1122 yards at a 4.1 clip for 9 tds.

In 2016 Gurley had 43 recp. for 327 yards at a 74% catch rate. Last year Howard had 23 - 125-0 at a 72% catch rate.

We completely revamped our WR corp with the additions of A. Robinson-T. Gabriel-A. Miller plus adding Trey Burton at TE.

Conclusion.

Nagy and his staff looks to be as good  as the LA coaches of last year. They have more weapons than LA had last year plus not a player on their roster than has the potential of Tarik Cohen as a runner and WR threat. Defensively we will improve from this year with continuity in the backfield and a potential all pro ILB in Smith. I think we are going to double our win total from 5 to 10 this year even in a more difficult division.

MT is ahead of Goff in his second year.

Howard is not as good as Gurley receiving but could be his equal as a runner.Howard is a hard worker to be a better WR and will show up this year in his stats.

I think with the addition of A Miller , we could say that our WRs overall are better than the crew the Rams had last year.

We are much better with Burton-Shaheen and Sims than LA was last year at TE.

Our Oline has as much  potential to be better than what Rams produced last year. Rams were ranked 6th and the Bears were ranked 11th.

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

I’m curious how you can say:  “MT is ahead of Goff in his second year.”

Is it based solely on Trubisky vs Goff or who they have around them? 

[Stinger226]

By the stats he had in his first year.

Last year MT had 2193 yards- 7 tds-7 int. Ran for 248 yards and 2 tds. (in 2016 Jared Goff 1093 yards-5 tds-7 ints ran for 16 yards and 1 td)

[BearFan PHX]

Goff played 7 games to Trubisky's 12 tho

[Stinger226]

That is part of my point he gained more experience in his first year than Goff did in his first year.

[BearFan PHX]

I think Trubisky is headed for a breakout year too, but you cant say his first year numbers are better than Goffs when Goff played almost half as many games. They might be better called comparable.

[Stinger226]

I think part of the reason he is ahead in development is because he played more games not necessarily that he has more yards, not apples to apples comparison.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I think part of the reason he is ahead in development is because he played more games not necessarily that he has more yards, not apples to apples comparison.

"Last year MT had 2193 yards- 7 tds-7 int. Ran for 248 yards and 2 tds. (in 2016 Jared Goff 1093 yards-5 tds-7 ints ran for 16 yards and 1 td)"

The one glaring difference between the two (besides the 12 vs 7 starts) are the yardage.  Otherwise the TD/Int ratio is pretty similar as is the completion rate (Goff 54.6% Trub 59.4%).  The stats can be viewed in two ways.  One being the way you're reading them which by the raw numbers show Trubisky played more games than did Goff his first year.  However, between the two they were pretty 'apples to apples' in most other statistics. 

Interestingly enough, in their college careers Goff played 37 games and produced 12,195 yards (7.8 yd avg) through the air with 96 TDs and 30 INTs where Trubisky played in 31 games where he threw for 4,762 yards (8.3 yds avg) with 41 TDs and 10 INTs.  The efficiency rating weighed a bit more in Trubisky's favor during that time although Trubisky only had 13 actual 'starts' where Goff pretty much started all the games he played in. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

I was going to call you out on Trubisky's 31 starts as you mentioned  earlier, but see you fixed it in the end to 13.  Just a typo

[Alaskan Grizzly]

52 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I was going to call you out on Trubisky's 31 starts as you mentioned  earlier, but see you fixed it in the end to 13.  Just a typo

Actually not.  Trubisky did fill in for previous starter Marquise Williams on occasion before getting his own actual designation as starter in 2016.  So those other 18 games were in relief efforts for Williams.  And, oddly enough, Trubisky didn’t fare all that horribly in relief.  Found this article (below) that helps answer some of the questions skeptics like me have/had about Trubiskys potential.   

https://www.cleveland.com/pluto/index.ssf/2017/04/why_did_mitchell_trubisky_only.html

Its kinda the reverse issue that Alabama currently has with Tagavailoa and Hurts. 

 

 

[Stinger226]

My original statement was Trubisky is ahead of Goff in his development(in the NFL) at the same stage because he has played more games. They are comparable in stats but the breakout year Goff had in his second year is arguably with less talent on his offense. Gurley is clearly a better overall player than Howard but we have better TE talent and they had nothing like a player comparable to Cohen.I would argue our WRs are overall better talent than Goff's of last year. I think all of this puts him in a better position to have more success than Goff in his second year. 

[adam]

Another interesting perspective, looking at Team Offense/Defense Ratings:

2016 Rams (Offense 32nd, Defense 15th) - 2017 Bears (Offense 28th, Defense 14th)

2017 Rams (Offense 6th, Defense 6th) - 2018 Bears (TBD)

So the Bears last year actually had a better team than the 2016 Rams, who were dead last in offense. We survived Glennon which pulled down our offense a few spots. All things considered, I don't know if we make an offensive leap 26 spots like the Rams, but if we can get to 15th on offense and creep up a couple of slots on defense, we are a playoff team. The biggest difference is that the Rams have an elite Special Teams (top 3) while we finished 23rd. We need that to improve into the middle of the league in Special Teams. 

Looking at Skill positions, who would you take:
Goff, Gurley, Kupp, Watkins, Woods, Higbee, Everett vs Trubisky, Howard, Robinson, Gabriel, Miller, Burton, Cohen, Shaheen

Gurley is the only player I would take over our players. Tru, Robinson, Gabriel, Miller, Burton, Cohen, and Shaheen are all better one for one against the Rams players. Howard loses out to Gurley due to his stone hands.

We might even with in 1st Round Busts: Austin vs White

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Looking at Skill positions, who would you take:
Goff, Gurley, Kupp, Watkins, Woods, Higbee, Everett vs Trubisky, Howard, Robinson, Gabriel, Miller, Burton, Cohen, Shaheen

Gurley is the only player I would take over our players. Tru, Robinson, Gabriel, Miller, Burton, Cohen, and Shaheen are all better one for one against the Rams players. Howard loses out to Gurley due to his stone hands.

We might even with in 1st Round Busts: Austin vs White

At the risk of being dubbed a 'Debbie downer' I'll go the devil's advocate route and challenge some of these options.  For one they added Brandin Cooks to their arsenal this year.  And whether he ends up being their #1 WR all he's managed to do is get 1173yds / 8 TDs two seasons ago and 1082 / 7TDs last year.  Our guy; Robinson, hasn't had a complete season since 2015 where he got over 1000 yards.  To be frank, I'm concerned with how he'll pan out.  I've got to believe with all the money paid, he's going to do well.

Cooper Kupp (in his first year) got 869 yards and 5 TDs with the Rams last year.  Similar to how Stinger thinks Cohen is immeasurable for us, who do we put against Kupp?  The best we have is maybe Gabriel who only got 378 yds and 1 TD last year with ATL after going 579 yds the year before. (By the way, this was the same offense (ATL - Ryan)  that made Hester look like a  respectable receiver). 

Comparing our #1 TE's?  I'm guessing theirs will be Everett (who was  a 2nd round pick last year) who got 244 yds with 2 TDs.  While with PHI last year, Burton put up 248 yds and 5TDs.  Shaheen (himself a 2nd round pick last year) got 127 yds and 2 TDs.  Isn't Miller pretty much done or is he still planning on making a comeback?

Watkins went to KC on a mega-deal and Woods ended up with 781 yds and 5 TDS after his first year in LA.  Our comp maybe is White....who is still TBD. 

Mostly because I'm still not a believer in Pace, I'm skeptical in how most of 'our' players will pan out.  But because I like Nagy...I trust he'll get the best he can out of them.

 

[adam]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

At the risk of being dubbed a 'Debbie downer' I'll go the devil's advocate route and challenge some of these options.  For one they added Brandin Cooks to their arsenal this year.  And whether he ends up being their #1 WR all he's managed to do is get 1173yds / 8 TDs two seasons ago and 1082 / 7TDs last year.  Our guy; Robinson, hasn't had a complete season since 2015 where he got over 1000 yards.  To be frank, I'm concerned with how he'll pan out.  I've got to believe with all the money paid, he's going to do well.

Cooper Kupp (in his first year) got 869 yards and 5 TDs with the Rams last year.  Similar to how Stinger thinks Cohen is immeasurable for us, who do we put against Kupp?  The best we have is maybe Gabriel who only got 378 yds and 1 TD last year with ATL after going 579 yds the year before. (By the way, this was the same offense (ATL - Ryan)  that made Hester look like a  respectable receiver). 

Comparing our #1 TE's?  I'm guessing theirs will be Everett (who was  a 2nd round pick last year) who got 244 yds with 2 TDs.  While with PHI last year, Burton put up 248 yds and 5TDs.  Shaheen (himself a 2nd round pick last year) got 127 yds and 2 TDs.  Isn't Miller pretty much done or is he still planning on making a comeback?

Watkins went to KC on a mega-deal and Woods ended up with 781 yds and 5 TDS after his first year in LA.  Our comp maybe is White....who is still TBD. 

Mostly because I'm still not a believer in Pace, I'm skeptical in how most of 'our' players will pan out.  But because I like Nagy...I trust he'll get the best he can out of them.

 

5

I was comparing this year's Bears to last year's Rams. Trubisky>Goff, Gurley>Howard, Robinson>Kupp, Miller>Watkins, Gabriel>Woods, Burton/Shaheen>Higbee/Everett, Cohen>Austin.  Austin had 13-47 yds and 59 rushes for 270 yds. Cohen 53-353 and 87-370.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

46 minutes ago, adam said:

I was comparing this year's Bears to last year's Rams. Trubisky>Goff, Gurley>Howard, Robinson>Kupp, Miller>Watkins, Gabriel>Woods, Burton/Shaheen>Higbee/Everett, Cohen>Austin.

I figured.  But still in the case of Robinson, Miller, Gabriel and Cohen (and maybe even Trub); questions still remain.  What are you basing your measurements on?

[Stinger226]

Actually Debbie downer is to much of a compliment for you. You have to go much deeper to figure out the depth of your negative attitude. 

Nothing is guaranteed but it is clear, you don't like Pace so you are looking for things that could go wrong to us for your  argument. Adam was comparing 2018 Bears to 2017 Rams from their previous years and the first words out of your mouth is Brandon Cooks. Reading is a skill, you seem to need to work on that. Cooper Kupp will be compared to Anthony Miller this year which has not happened yet. Everett was their starter and you are comparing stats to Trey Burton last years stats, but  will be our #1 TE in Nagy's offense. When the season is over THEN you can compare Burton to Everett. You seem to correlate value with money paid. Watkins got a big contract so he must be good. Robinson got a big contract so he must be good. 

AND last but not least, Cohen is going to be a Tyreek Hill type of player for this team. I would say over 400 rushing and over 60 receptions with 7 TDs. Also some special team play PR and KR.

He had 4 TDs last year and had several called back for penalties and stepping out of bounds.

The "nobody special" Cohen was 10th last year in all purpose yards with a conservative head coach and lousy OC.

Last year PFF  had on some stupid stat Cohen rated as the best RB breakaway threat last year. 

Do they have crows in Alaska? I can see you feasting on them by the end of the year.

[adam]

11 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I figured.  But still in the case of Robinson, Miller, Gabriel and Cohen (and maybe even Trub); questions still remain.  What are you basing your measurements on?

Robinson's only question is related to his recovery and I can't see the Bears signing him to that big of a contract if there were health concerns. He was the top rated Free Agent and has produced with Blake Bortles at QB. Miller is based on projections. His college play projects favorably to the NFL. Gabriel has already produced in Cleveland and Atlanta, so putting up similar numbers doesn't seem like is a reach. Cohen has already showed he is a playmaker and will only be better with a year under his belt. Trubisky did what he did last year totally neutered by Fox and Co. This is really his first year with a real coach and OC. Hard to see him not improving, especially with all the weapons and options around him. Someone should be open on every play. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

On ‎5‎/‎22‎/‎2018 at 6:30 PM, Stinger226 said:

Actually Debbie downer is to much of a compliment for you. You have to go much deeper to figure out the depth of your negative attitude. 

Nothing is guaranteed but it is clear, you don't like Pace so you are looking for things that could go wrong to us for your  argument. Adam was comparing 2018 Bears to 2017 Rams from their previous years and the first words out of your mouth is Brandon Cooks. Reading is a skill, you seem to need to work on that. Cooper Kupp will be compared to Anthony Miller this year which has not happened yet. Everett was their starter and you are comparing stats to Trey Burton last years stats, but  will be our #1 TE in Nagy's offense. When the season is over THEN you can compare Burton to Everett. You seem to correlate value with money paid. Watkins got a big contract so he must be good. Robinson got a big contract so he must be good. 

AND last but not least, Cohen is going to be a Tyreek Hill type of player for this team. I would say over 400 rushing and over 60 receptions with 7 TDs. Also some special team play PR and KR.

He had 4 TDs last year and had several called back for penalties and stepping out of bounds.

The "nobody special" Cohen was 10th last year in all purpose yards with a conservative head coach and lousy OC.

Last year PFF  had on some stupid stat Cohen rated as the best RB breakaway threat last year. 

Do they have crows in Alaska? I can see you feasting on them by the end of the year.

Funny how you 'preach' about my reading comprehension (or lack thereof) then took the liberty to assume that by my saying both Robinson and Watkins getting big money meant they were "good" players (as if that was a negative).  Yet I didn't say that at all.   It is noteworthy however that Adam thought that Robinson potentially could be a good player because he was paid big money and a "top free agent" prospect.

You constantly contort my critical thinking style into 'negative attitude' because my opinion differs than yours.  As I've said over the years I can't help that you're super sensitive to your opinion being the one that is right...all the time.  I'm simply questioning how we can measure this year's players on the roster to players on the Rams from last year.  Forgive me for using prior (and established) statistics from which to measure.  Some of our players haven't played a full season in a few years (White and the aforementioned Robinson).  Others have done 'acceptable' (but not mind-blowing) with proven and explosive offenses (Burton and Gabriel). Where others haven't even played an NFL down yet (Miller).  I personally find it tricky (if not risky) to say that these players will do better than what LA had on its roster last year; or even this year for that matter. 

As I've repeated time and again, I don't WISH at all for our team to fail.  I just have a different take on it than you. That's all there is to it. 

And although we do have some crows in Alaska; Ravens are the predominant bird of that family.  Both in numbers and size. 

 

[Stinger226]

You are a negative person, and not everything that comes out of your mouth is negative, but overall, you are mostly critical and question everything. 

neg·a·tive

ˈneɡədiv/

adjective

 

(of a person, attitude, or situation) not desirable or optimistic.

"the new tax was having a very negative effect on car sales"

synonyms:

pessimistic, defeatist, gloomy, cynical, fatalistic, dismissive, antipathetic, critical;More

 

I  never claim that all of my thoughts are all right and jump on you because we disagree. I have agreed with your points before. Adams post for the projection of this years team will compare to the Rams last year. Obviously it hasn't happened yet, so it remains to be seen if the comparison is accurate. Many articles  written about the projection of this years team compares it to the Rams. So using established facts make it difficult to project this years team because of so many changes. For example , you can not compare what Burton did last year in Philly because he had limited targets. This year he is considered the #1 TE and will set double his targets in a more aggressive offense,  so your established facts are not apples to apples. I also think Robinson will play well but not because we paid him a lot of money, but because of his talent. 

Your words ( I've got to believe with all the money paid, he's going to do well.) when talking about Robinson. but you didn't say that, UMMM your words(Yet I didn't say that at all)

Now put this all together and realize that people can compare This years Bears to last years Rams because their is many similarities. Goff in his second year (Trubisky in his second year) New offensive minded coaching staff, UMM sounds familiar. Bringing in several new WRs , they did we did. New TE, we did. Has a top 10 RB, Gurley- Howard. Both have good defenses. 

If you read my posts, I criticize when it is deemed a mistake. (signing Glennon,) so I do not always wear rose colored glasses. Overall I am an optimist, but that does not mean I do not view things realistically . I criticize when necessary. I view this years team as a potentially good possible playoff team. 

 

here was your post:

At the risk of being dubbed a 'Debbie downer' I'll go the DEVILS ADVOCATE  route and CHALLENGE  some of these options.  For one they added Brandin Cooks to their arsenal this year.  And whether he ends up being their #1 WR all he's managed to do is get 1173yds / 8 TDs two seasons ago and 1082 / 7TDs last year.  Our guy; Robinson, hasn't had a complete season since 2015 where he got over 1000 yards.  To be frank, I'M CONCERNED ABOUT HOW HE PANS OUT.  I've got to believe with all the money paid, he's going to do well.

Cooper Kupp (in his first year) got 869 yards and 5 TDs with the Rams last year.  Similar to how Stinger thinks Cohen is immeasurable for us, who do we put against Kupp?  The best we have is maybe Gabriel who only got 378 yds and 1 TD last year with ATL after going 579 yds the year before. (By the way, this was the same offense (ATL - Ryan)  that made Hester look like a  respectable receiver). 

Comparing our #1 TE's?  I'm guessing theirs will be Everett (who was  a 2nd round pick last year) who got 244 yds with 2 TDs.  While with PHI last year, Burton put up 248 yds and 5TDs.  Shaheen (himself a 2nd round pick last year) got 127 yds and 2 TDs.  Isn't Miller pretty much done or is he still planning on making a comeback?

Watkins went to KC on a mega-deal and Woods ended up with 781 yds and 5 TDS after his first year in LA.  Our comp maybe is White....who is still TBD. 

Mostly because I'm still NOT A BELIEVER in Pace, I'm SKEPTICAL in how most of 'our' players will pan out.  But because I like Nagy...I trust he'll get the best he can out of them.

I pointed out your negative statements. You did a have a few positive things to say, but overall, your critical and pessimistic .

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

And you claim to be a student of Freud.  Perhaps I’ve given you too much credit. You continue to twist what I’m saying to fit your narrative. Please take some time and look up ‘critical thinking’ when you get a moment.  I know you are capable of finding definitions as you so cleverly demonstrated .

Frankly I suppose I could care less that you think I’m negative.  If it soothes you to think so; great for you. As far as the team goes I’m enthusiastic about a lot of the changes made and hopeful they will work out as planned.  I like Nagy. Think he’s got what it takes to coach.  Like a lot of the players on the team, despite some of the uncertainties I see.  We will all see how successful he is in orchestrating wins with the group he currently has.  

At this point we’ve wasted too much time on the personal banter and one-upmanship so I’m moving on.  

[Stinger226]

If you do not like the fact I label you as negative, then why all the push back on my statements? It not like being tattooed N on your chest and being chastised all your life. It is just something I noticed as a theme for you since I have been butting heads with you. So lets let this go to bed.

BUT one thing to remember we have disagreed on is the value of T. Cohen, I think he ends up being a play maker in the Nagy offense, and you do not think he is special. That will be proven over the year , one way or another. 

[Daventry]

I am hoping that Pace and Nagy and company will make the Bears better.  However, I am not entirely sold.

Pace's decisions are questionable are best; Glennon was a disaster is the easiest example.  Constantly trading up and losing draft picks is something I don't like to see either.

Burton was third string in Philadelphia.  Trubisky is unproven.  Robinson is coming off injury.  Our second round WR draft pick , Miller, has never played a down in the NFL so who knows?  Nagy is in his first year as a head coach.

I think there are reasons for hope but am have a wait and see attitude.  There is a lot to be done with the team to get it to a high level and we are in a tough division and have a tough schedule.

I am hopeful.  But will wait for results before drinking too much kool aid.