Week 1 - Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers Official Game Thread

[adam]

7:20pm, Sunday Night Football, September 9th, Bears +8, Over/Under 47.5, NBC
 

This felt like the longest preseason ever! I am so ready for real football.

Here is what I think about the Week 1 matchup with the Fudge Packers:

Based on last year's numbers, the Bears have the better defense, and you could argue now have better RB's, WR's, and TE's. The Packers have Graham, Adams, Cobb, and Montgomery compared to Burton, Robinson, Miller, Gabriel, Howard, and Cohen. I am not even counting Shaheen or White. 

QB is probably the only position the Packers have a definitive edge and that difference is hard to quantify. Rodgers was hurt last year and came back for one game to throw 3 picks and lose to Carolina. We have no idea what Trubisky will look like in live game action under Nagy. To me, Nagy so far compared to any recent HC has been night and day. Fox and Trestman were terrible and Lovie was great but Defensive-oriented. Nagy coupled with Vic seems like the perfect combination for this team. My biggest concern is the pass rush because Rodgers with time puts a lot of pressure on the secondary.

I think this game goes one of two ways. The Bears take everyone by surprise and the new weapons dominate the Packers and we win by 10+, or we are completely not ready for prime time and get crushed by 20+. I could be wrong but based on the small sample size and seeing how we looked with mostly our #2's against KC's #1's (that some have going to the SB), I would lean towards us being sharp and prepared.

Resting the starters and not showing our hand seems to be right in line with Nagy's way of thinking. He is going to gain an edge any way he can, and not getting good tape on Trubisky and Company goes a long ways towards that goal.

Bears 31 - Packers 20

So what do you guys think? How optimistic are you? 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Many good points in your edit. The Bears may have the better overall receiving corp but with Rodgers throwing and Graham in the mix they have an edge.  In the RB department I’m gonna say Howard gives the Bears an edge, however slight.  We know what Jordan can do against most teams (close to 100 yards rushing) but will this be the year he adds efficient pass catching to his repertoire?  

I agree Nagy and Fangio make a potent if not intriguing mix.  Mike Pettine has taken over the Packers D and prior to going to the Browns as HC he was putting out some pretty stout defenses.  Hard to say how his style will translate to Green Bay’s players but I expect we’ll see some pretty interesting blitz packages (as a side note, many are predicting the Packers in the lead for the Mack lottery - God I hope not).

After it’s all said and done I think the lack of game time participation in the preseason our offense will look a little rusty.  Our D will be ready (Vic wouldn’t allow any less) but they may be missing a few key pieces; Floyd and Smith.  I don’t see a blowout but I don’t see a win for the Bears.  

Maybe 21-17 or somewhere in that ballpark.   

*EDIT*:  With the recent and surprising acquisition of Mack I’d like to change my score prediction.  Packers 0, Bears 150!!!   DA BEARZZZ!!!!

[ChileBear]

Maybe not 150, but I think Mack changes things a bunch in our division.

[adam]

If the Packers were game planning already (which I assume they were) will have to make some huge adjustments with the acquisition of Mack. I hope he can get into town quick and get up to speed on the defense in such a short time. He may be limited in Week 1, but either way, just another thing for GB to worry about.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

Is he actually going to play week one? I presume he will be pretty limited and likely miss at least the first week? 

[adam]

Just now, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Is he actually going to play week one? I presume he will be pretty limited and likely miss at least the first week? 

I am sure he will play, maybe just on passing downs, but I would say his position and role (rushing the passer) has one of the easier transitions compared to other positions.

[BearFan2000]

It has been a long busy offseason and there has been so much anticipation of what it will all mean when the games count.  From a fan perspective for us we've been chomping at the bit to see this revamped Bears team hit the field.  What whirlwind this offseason has been.  Firing fox, Naggy hired, Vic retained, several key FA acquisitions, the draft, the drama surrounding getting Roquan signed and in house.  The crazy blockbuster trade that landed us Mack.  There is much reason for optimism this year and beyond.  Maybe we make the playoffs maybe we make a real push to make a deep playoff run.  We lived through 2 years of the freshman dumpster fire, the transition years of Fox who while he didn't produce wins or winning seasons, the locker room and team chemistry put us in a position to land Naggy and with that hire bring in talent that wanted to come here and be a part of something special.  Time will tell if Naggy can reach the potential we hope he can.  He's in a golden position to lead the Bears back to respectability.  If he's able to bring championships to Chicago he will own this city.  

I'm looking forward to this game, and it is very hard to predict how this will go.  I'm with Adam on this, I feel there's potential we could jump out and surprise people and take the Packers down.  Naggy has played things very close to the vest in preseason.  The Packers have to mostly rely on Cheifs film to scout for this matchup and it's very advantageous that we get the Packers week 1.  It's an important game not only because it's rivalry but it's also the only divisional game till week 10.  I also get the sense that unlike past Bears coaches who have taken the "just another game" mentality, he embraces the rivalry spirit and will have the guys pumped.  These games require an extra chip on your shoulder.

Prediction wise I could see this being a close game won in the fourth quarter, or a game won easily.  As long as our D keeps Rodgers and the offense in check, I see a Bears win.  Bears 28-24, but wouldn't be shocked at a more lopsided win in a game where we are in control and a late rally makes the score closer than the game was.  Unless we come out flat which I doubt will happen.  if anything we might come out a little too jacked up.  

[AZ54]

I can't predict because there are too many unknowns on our side of the ball.  On D it starts with Roquan and now Mack.  How much of an impact will they have the game?   On offense we saw nothing of Cohen in the preseason so we have no idea how he will be used, especially in conjuction with Gabriel stretching the field.  I think we match up far better than anyone gives us credit for.    

One thing I'm curious to see is our hurry up offense.  Between Nagy and Helfrich we know that is part our arsenal.  If we get the offense rolling early expect to see that in the first half.  

[adam]

Quote

 

Another Week 1 NFL pick we'll give away: The Green Bay Packers (-7.5) will get a big victory in Aaron Rodgers' return against the NFC North rival Chicago Bears on Sunday Night Football. 

The Bears are hoping offseason acquisitions like receiver Allen Robinson and tight end Trey Burton help revitalize their offense. And over the weekend, they traded for 2016 NFL Defensive Player of the Year Khalil Mack. However, the model is calling for only 18 points for Chicago and for Green Bay to cover the 7.5-point spread at Lambeau Field. You can also confidently back the Under (47.5) because that hits in 61 percent of simulations.

 

CBS Sports lol. "The Model" is only calling for 18 points from the Bears. It looks like they just took the averages from last year. If the projections are going to be wrong, they are going to be wrong on the Bears this year. It reminds me of Philly last year.

[BearFan2000]

9 hours ago, adam said:

CBS Sports lol. "The Model" is only calling for 18 points from the Bears. It looks like they just took the averages from last year. If the projections are going to be wrong, they are going to be wrong on the Bears this year. It reminds me of Philly last year.

Here's to wrecking their "model" this year.  These predictions are little more than "I'll believe it when I see it" with some lazy research thrown in for good measure.  They always assume Green Bay is great, Bears suck.  To an extent you can understand as we've not had a winning season in what 5 years? Respect is earned and the Bears while on paper have made vast improvements.  We as fans are more familiar and are quicker to see the potential.  But till it shows up on a football field and in the score board they won't believe.  GB has seen vastly more success than we have in recent years and that creates homers in the talking heads community.  We saw what Green Bay was without Rodgers it wasn't pretty.  They have one player propping up that team.  The first step in changing these perceptions is knocking off the Pack convincingly on Sunday night football.  The win would be satisfying enough but the added bonus of these "experts" eating crow would  be icing on the cake.

[Mongo3451]

Just because, lol.

[Connorbear]

4 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Just because, lol.

This is simply fantastic!

[killakrzydav]

I don't expect the bears to start beating the pack yet. GB vs Chi is one of the safest bets out there across the last ten plus ats and straight up.

[killakrzydav]

Packs side to clarify

[adam]

I don't have stats to back it up but I would think that the first few weeks of the season have the most upsets. The Bears +7.5 seems like a pretty good bet. I don't see the Bears losing by more than a TD. 

[Stinger226]

I would love to see 38- 23 but realistically it all comes down to being mistake free and  having only a few penalties. I suspect their will be some turnovers and those will tell the story. 

[killakrzydav]

Not in the bears recent history.

They are 2-8 straight up, 3-7, against the spread, and 7-3 over the total last ten meetings with GB winning and covering the last four early season matchup.

[killakrzydav]

Over the total of 47.5 would probably be the safest bet out there as a bears fan.

[CrackerDog]

Bears 24-20

[Stinger226]

If I am drunk on Koolaid, I say we win 38-23 but the sober me suspects 24- 16 Bears. Defense starts to shine, offense starts to show some pop.

[Bill]

I guess we will see if not playing the starters was a good thing the last two preseason games.  The Bears need to get out to a good start and keep the pedal to the metal.

[Chitownhustla]

12 hours ago, Bill said:

I guess we will see if not playing the starters was a good thing the last two preseason games.  The Bears need to get out to a good start and keep the pedal to the metal.

This is the most excited I have been in years. Still not expecting a win against GB. Its week 1 of a new offense, new HC and a lot of new pieces. Not saying we cant win, just that the Bears are playing Aaron Rodgers and he always gives the Pack a good chance at winning. Really excited to see this defense. Im fine with Nagy sitting the starters, once Shaheen went down I started praying for no more player injuries. We have had the most injuries the last 2 years. It will be very hard to win games if we see the same amount of injuries as we have seen the last two years. 

[Stinger226]

With total high expectations, even if they win, I will have some disappointment. Only blowing them out will satisfy my excitement. I have never told anyone that I thought I was very smart. 

I see the first play on offense: RIII and Gabriel sprinting downfield, Miller and Burton going underneath routes and Tariek Cohen coming out of the backfield to take a  pass  and going all the way.

[AZ54]

This is the first time in years I haven't had to think "if this one player" plays well we can win.  We have multiple options on both sides of the ball for game changing plays.    I see the offense and Nagy working to take advantage of their weakness and in experience at ILB.   Let's start with Cohen and Howard in the backfield with Cohen motioning out to the slot.  Run a play action fake off that.  

[adam]

Here is how some of the young QB's linked to Trubisky did today:

1. Watson 17-34, 50%, 176 yds, 1 TD, 1 INT, 62.9 QB Rating
2. Garoppolo 15-33, 45.5%, 261 yds, 1 TD, 3 INT, 45.1 QB Rating
3. Mahomes 15-27, 55.6%, 256 yds, 4 TD, 0 INT, 127.5 QB Rating

Mahomes looks legit, the other two looked really out of sync and probably played better defenses.