How do Bears Measure Up?

[AZ54]

After taking day to catch up on some games and performances around the league I have a sense where the Bears fit in. 

I see all the angst about our loss, mine included, but I don't think a single new Head Coach won their first game including the one who has won a Superbowl, John Gruden.   All these teams are in different states of repair but among this group we didn't fare so poorly.  There is a learning curve for all new HCs and their teams.  We need to keep that perspective as over-reaction Monday fades into the distance.  After looking around and seeing the Raiders, Lions, and Cardinals play.  The Giants have plenty of star power and didn't look so good either.   

Overall after looking at the landscape I'm ok with where we are at after what I saw in week 1.  If we had put up the dumpster fire that Detroit just did I'd be much more concerned.  They had serious issues on defense, offense, and special teams.  If Detroit continues that soft zone coverage with their LBs (including Christian Jones) Trubisky will throw for 400 yards against them with 200 being from the RBs.  Patricia will get that fixed but in Week 1 he couldn't have made things any easier for Darnold.  

Looking at the 2017 QB class including JimmyG, Trubisky's performance falls in the middle of the road, which wasn't too good overall.  Only Mahomes put up good numbers.  He'll be compared to Trubisky all year long but Mahomes has a 12 month head start in this offense.  Plus, unlike Mahomes, it's not just Trubisky learning the offense, it's everyone.  I'll be looking for some signs of growth over the next few games.   DeShaun Watson isn't moving around as well as he did last year.  Hopefully the coaches didn't rush him back too quickly.  Among these 4 QBs he struggled the most, which was unexpected.  

I still see the Bears glass half full and feel this roster can compete well with most teams in the league.  Nagy needs to show he's up to the task.  

 

 

 

[madlithuanian]

Well put...

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

3 hours ago, AZ54 said:

After taking day to catch up on some games and performances around the league I have a sense where the Bears fit in. 

I see all the angst about our loss, mine included, but I don't think a single new Head Coach won their first game including the one who has won a Superbowl, John Gruden.   All these teams are in different states of repair but among this group we didn't fare so poorly.  There is a learning curve for all new HCs and their teams.  We need to keep that perspective as over-reaction Monday fades into the distance.  After looking around and seeing the Raiders, Lions, and Cardinals play.  The Giants have plenty of star power and didn't look so good either.   

Overall after looking at the landscape I'm ok with where we are at after what I saw in week 1.  If we had put up the dumpster fire that Detroit just did I'd be much more concerned.  They had serious issues on defense, offense, and special teams.  If Detroit continues that soft zone coverage with their LBs (including Christian Jones) Trubisky will throw for 400 yards against them with 200 being from the RBs.  Patricia will get that fixed but in Week 1 he couldn't have made things any easier for Darnold.  

Looking at the 2017 QB class including JimmyG, Trubisky's performance falls in the middle of the road, which wasn't too good overall.  Only Mahomes put up good numbers.  He'll be compared to Trubisky all year long but Mahomes has a 12 month head start in this offense.  Plus, unlike Mahomes, it's not just Trubisky learning the offense, it's everyone.  I'll be looking for some signs of growth over the next few games.   DeShaun Watson isn't moving around as well as he did last year.  Hopefully the coaches didn't rush him back too quickly.  Among these 4 QBs he struggled the most, which was unexpected.  

I still see the Bears glass half full and feel this roster can compete well with most teams in the league.  Nagy needs to show he's up to the task.  

 

 

 

All the more reason Nagy needed to expose Trubisky to this offense more than less during the preseason.  To me, this was a calculated risk that he (Nagy) messed up. As it was, Trubisky had minimal starting experience in college and only 12 games last year (with a 'meh' performance) prior to Nagy coming to Chicago.  Another question that raised and with valid concern was why didn't Nagy use more of the proven commodity in Howard?  Especially as the game was winding down?  Was he trying to get too gimmicky? 

That being said, I seem to recall with the advent of this most recent CBA most teams don't really appear to have it together until about week 3-4.  These first few games are almost an extension of the preseason as many teams are still trying out new parts and players are still getting their legs beneath them.  ESPN did say that the new coaches were 0-7 this first week of action; a first in NFL history.  So we shouldn't feel too bad about it...as long as it doesn't continue. 

[AZ54]

20 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

All the more reason Nagy needed to expose Trubisky to this offense more than less during the preseason.  To me, this was a calculated risk that he (Nagy) messed up. As it was, Trubisky had minimal starting experience in college and only 12 games last year (with a 'meh' performance) prior to Nagy coming to Chicago.  Another question that raised and with valid concern was why didn't Nagy use more of the proven commodity in Howard?  Especially as the game was winding down?  Was he trying to get too gimmicky? 

That being said, I seem to recall with the advent of this most recent CBA most teams don't really appear to have it together until about week 3-4.  These first few games are almost an extension of the preseason as many teams are still trying out new parts and players are still getting their legs beneath them.  ESPN did say that the new coaches were 0-7 this first week of action; a first in NFL history.  So we shouldn't feel too bad about it...as long as it doesn't continue. 

It's a valid point about getting a bit more playing time for the offense to get in sync.  I think the issue isn't so much Trubisky knowing the offense as much as it is reading the defense and knowing where to go with the ball in that coverage.  In the preseason he just isn't likely to get good looks at much variety of coverages.   Apparently Green Bay used a lot of zone and we prepared all week for mostly man coverage.  

If we are going to legitimately challenge for a playoff spot this season history says we have to win this next game.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

28 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

It's a valid point about getting a bit more playing time for the offense to get in sync.  I think the issue isn't so much Trubisky knowing the offense as much as it is reading the defense and knowing where to go with the ball in that coverage.  In the preseason he just isn't likely to get good looks at much variety of coverages.   Apparently Green Bay used a lot of zone and we prepared all week for mostly man coverage.  

If we are going to legitimately challenge for a playoff spot this season history says we have to win this next game.  

True, but if he had more time simply working with the offense in 'game time' mode, he'd be that more in tune and better prepared to deal with changes like that.  Just to be clear, I don't blame him (Trubisky) solely for the loss, Nagy had a lot to do with it. 

And yes, I feel the Bears must win next week against Seattle to not only redeem themselves but not make Mack think he made a mistake in signing with this team.  lol.

 

[Chitownhustla]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

It's a valid point about getting a bit more playing time for the offense to get in sync.  I think the issue isn't so much Trubisky knowing the offense as much as it is reading the defense and knowing where to go with the ball in that coverage.  In the preseason he just isn't likely to get good looks at much variety of coverages.   Apparently Green Bay used a lot of zone and we prepared all week for mostly man coverage.  

If we are going to legitimately challenge for a playoff spot this season history says we have to win this next game.  

Still kind of shocked that they were not ready to play against Zone. I get that the Bears are used to seeing a lot of man against GB. Capers is gone and a new DC is in place. The offense should have been prepared for anything. The GB packers defense had no idea what the Bears would run on offense. The first half they had a hard time and adjusted in the 2nd half. The same should have happened on the Bears side of the ball. GB's offense switched to a quick passing attack in the 2nd half to negate the Bears pass rush. It's what good offenses do. You can do that when your QB has played in the same offense for his entire career. I don't expect Tru to be able to adjust the same way Rodgers does, but at least a little bit. 

 

The first half got us all fired up, the 2nd half was more realistic for a new HC and 2nd year QB in a brand new offense. I agree with Griz, the number 1 offense should have played more in the preseason. 

 

 

 

 

[Mongo3451]

Growing pains that they'll learn from.  The arrow is definitely up.

[Mongo3451]

Do you think there will be memes?

[Mongo3451]

Do you think there will be memes?

[Alaskan Grizzly]

38 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Do you think there will be memes?

I don't know why but something with 'Philly Special' in it comes to mind. 

Please don't tell me this was in the second half. 

[Mongo3451]

It has a story that puts it in perspective on CBS sports online.  Not nearly as bad as it looks...

[Chitownhustla]

37 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

It has a story that puts it in perspective on CBS sports online.  Not nearly as bad as it looks...

Watch it at full speed. By the time Tru saw him he was covered.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

41 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

It has a story that puts it in perspective on CBS sports online.  Not nearly as bad as it looks...

Yeah I found it. 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/examining-if-the-bears-mitchell-trubisky-really-did-miss-a-wide-open-td-against-the-packers/

Interesting take and given the context I do remember this play and the one before that they talk about where Trubisky overthrew Robinson.  In this play it seems that if the primary was Cohen sneaking out to the right flat then his next progression would have been one of the recievers on that side (also covered) or Burton coming across the field from left to right.  But yeah,  I could see where he hesitated due to not knowing if he could get the ball to Burton in a timely manner.  And the author is right, it's a heck of a lot easier to pick apart in the screenshot and slo-mo. 

By the way, wasn't Orlovsky (one QB in the article giving advise) the same one that ran out of the back of his own endzone once?  Hmmm... 

My understanding from the game was that the longer the game went on,  Trub seemed to resort more to check downs.  Again, why many wished he had played more in the pre-season AND (more importantly) why Nagy should have stuck with Howard as the game wore on. 

[madlithuanian]

22 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

All the more reason Nagy needed to expose Trubisky to this offense more than less during the preseason.  To me, this was a calculated risk that he (Nagy) messed up. As it was, Trubisky had minimal starting experience in college and only 12 games last year (with a 'meh' performance) prior to Nagy coming to Chicago.  Another question that raised and with valid concern was why didn't Nagy use more of the proven commodity in Howard?  Especially as the game was winding down?  Was he trying to get too gimmicky? 

That being said, I seem to recall with the advent of this most recent CBA most teams don't really appear to have it together until about week 3-4.  These first few games are almost an extension of the preseason as many teams are still trying out new parts and players are still getting their legs beneath them.  ESPN did say that the new coaches were 0-7 this first week of action; a first in NFL history.  So we shouldn't feel too bad about it...as long as it doesn't continue. 

Agreed!  The experiment looks like a fail.  That said, ultimately it probably doesn't matter a whole lot in the grand scheme of the season.  He got more out of Last Sunday than all of a preseason would have given him.  I'm actually kind of looking at game one as preseason for all involved.  If we learn, it's worth it.  If not, seats will be hot.

[madlithuanian]

16 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I don't know why but something with 'Philly Special' in it comes to mind. 

Please don't tell me this was in the second half. 

Seriously...  Either pitch it to Burton or run it in!

[DABEARSDABOMB]

18 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I don't know why but something with 'Philly Special' in it comes to mind. 

Please don't tell me this was in the second half. 

Quite a few former players have indicated that if Biscuit makes that throw, it is an interception vs. a catch. Screenshot looks far worse than reality...with Clinton Dix sprinting over in coverage.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Quite a few former players have indicated that if Biscuit makes that throw, it is an interception vs. a catch. Screenshot looks far worse than reality...with Clinton Dix sprinting over in coverage.  

Yeah Dan 'run out of the back of my own endzone' Orlovsky was one of them.  LOL. As was a few of the fellow GB players.

But you know the more I think about it, the throw he did eventually make was to Gabriel (for a loss) on the left of the field.  To me that was probably the riskiest of them all.  Not only was he passing across the field and essentially across his body, but to a blob of GB players (those that were being blocked by the line and not in on coverage to the right of the field) where Gabriel was behind.  To me that was the riskiest of all the possibilities. 

Like Mad pointed out, this whole GB experience was hopefully a huge learning curve for both Trub and Nagy.  Granted the team lost a huge lead and could do very little after starting out well on offense BUT considering who they were playing (Rodgers), where they were playing (GB) and how new everyone and everything on the Bears are, they didn't do that horribly bad.  At least they minimized stupid mistakes like penalties and turnovers.   

[AZ54]

2 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Yeah Dan 'run out of the back of my own endzone' Orlovsky was one of them.  LOL. As was a few of the fellow GB players.

But you know the more I think about it, the throw he did eventually make was to Gabriel (for a loss) on the left of the field.  To me that was probably the riskiest of them all.  Not only was he passing across the field and essentially across his body, but to a blob of GB players (those that were being blocked by the line and not in on coverage to the right of the field) where Gabriel was behind.  To me that was the riskiest of all the possibilities. 

Like Mad pointed out, this whole GB experience was hopefully a huge learning curve for both Trub and Nagy.  Granted the team lost a huge lead and could do very little after starting out well on offense BUT considering who they were playing (Rodgers), where they were playing (GB) and how new everyone and everything on the Bears are, they didn't do that horribly bad.  At least they minimized stupid mistakes like penalties and turnovers.   

If we flipped the 1st and 2nd half performances and we had come back to almost win the game everyone here is optimistic.  

 

 

[Bill]

Does anyone think Rogers would of made that play?  No, he's not in Rogers ball park but It will be nice to watch this season and see if he is headed in that direction.  I just hope it's a learning experience.  

[AZ54]

10 hours ago, Bill said:

Does anyone think Rogers would of made that play?  No, he's not in Rogers ball park but It will be nice to watch this season and see if he is headed in that direction.  I just hope it's a learning experience.  

Maybe but I've never been to an NFL game where I didn't see a QB miss wide open receivers.  I don't attend many games but still it's always been that way.  Even if I watch a bit of All 22 film I can find the same. 

Which Aaron Rodgers are we asking this about?  The veteran in his 14th season in the same offense, or the guy who completed 53% of his passes in mop up duty at the end of a blowout loss against the Ravens in his second season?    That Aaron Rodgers had 15 attempts with 8 completions, 0 TDs, 1 INT, and 3 sacks.   In the Fox era that was an entire game's worth of attempts.  There is 1 play with Rodgers in the video below.  Tell me if this pocket presence looks remotely like the QB we see 13 years later.

I don't know where Trubisky will end up among QBs in his career but a lot of what is being said about him this early in his career is over the top, especially for a QB in a brand new system in his second year.  Most rookie QBs are drafted with a relatively new coaching regime in place so there is usually some stability in the offense for two or three seasons.    Whether we like it or not it takes years for a QB to grow into the role.  It wasn't that long ago Bears fans wanted to sign Josh McCown for a couple years to be the starter.   The same Josh McCown who was coaching high school football when we called him.   McCown improved toward the end of his career no doubt and he's still on an NFL roster today and widely recognized as one of the best backup QBs in the league.   

Drew Brees, IMO, is a reasonable comp for Trubisky at this point in his career.  Not because of what he has become but because of what he was in his second season and nobody knew what he'd become.   2002  Chargers 16 games, under 61% comp,  3284yds, 17 TDs, 16 INTs.  It wasn't until his 4th season where Brees opened eyes around the league with a 65% comp, 27 TDs, 7 INTs but only 3150 yds.  

Ben Roethlisberger TDs/season in his first four years:    17, 17, 18, 32.   

Perhaps Carson Wentz in the last 4 games of his rookie season in this offense is a more fair comparison.  Yards:   314, 170, 152, 245    Comp%:   69, 52, 54, 63       TDs:  1, 0, 1, 2    INTs:  1, 1, 1, 0        Certainly at this point, the end of the 2016 season, all Eagles fans felt he'd be in the running for league MVP by the middle of the next season.  

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WentCa00/gamelog/2016/

I know stats are for dummies and there is enough NFL history that you can find whatever stats you want to support your argument.  My argument is that with just 13 starts in the NFL absolutely nobody knows what Trubisky will be in year 4.  After just 1 road game in year 2 it's way too early to write him off.  He's not Cade McNown or Rex Grossman because we already know he has the work ethic and desire to succeed.   I think he ends up somewhere between an Andy Dalton type as his floor, and top 5 QB as his ceiling.  Either way, at this point I think he deserves our patience and support as he learns his craft, especially in this new offense.   

  

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Maybe but I've never been to an NFL game where I didn't see a QB miss wide open receivers.  I don't attend many games but still it's always been that way.  Even if I watch a bit of All 22 film I can find the same. 

Which Aaron Rodgers are we asking this about?  The veteran in his 14th season in the same offense, or the guy who completed 53% of his passes in mop up duty at the end of a blowout loss against the Ravens in his second season?    That Aaron Rodgers had 15 attempts with 8 completions, 0 TDs, 1 INT, and 3 sacks.   In the Fox era that was an entire game's worth of attempts.  There is 1 play with Rodgers in the video below.  Tell me if this pocket presence looks remotely like the QB we see 13 years later.

I don't know where Trubisky will end up among QBs in his career but a lot of what is being said about him this early in his career is over the top, especially for a QB in a brand new system in his second year.  Most rookie QBs are drafted with a relatively new coaching regime in place so there is usually some stability in the offense for two or three seasons.    Whether we like it or not it takes years for a QB to grow into the role.  It wasn't that long ago Bears fans wanted to sign Josh McCown for a couple years to be the starter.   The same Josh McCown who was coaching high school football when we called him.   McCown improved toward the end of his career no doubt and he's still on an NFL roster today and widely recognized as one of the best backup QBs in the league.   

Drew Brees, IMO, is a reasonable comp for Trubisky at this point in his career.  Not because of what he has become but because of what he was in his second season and nobody knew what he'd become.   2002  Chargers 16 games, under 61% comp,  3284yds, 17 TDs, 16 INTs.  It wasn't until his 4th season where Brees opened eyes around the league with a 65% comp, 27 TDs, 7 INTs but only 3150 yds.  

Ben Roethlisberger TDs/season in his first four years:    17, 17, 18, 32.   

Perhaps Carson Wentz in the last 4 games of his rookie season in this offense is a more fair comparison.  Yards:   314, 170, 152, 245    Comp%:   69, 52, 54, 63       TDs:  1, 0, 1, 2    INTs:  1, 1, 1, 0        Certainly at this point, the end of the 2016 season, all Eagles fans felt he'd be in the running for league MVP by the middle of the next season.  

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/W/WentCa00/gamelog/2016/

I know stats are for dummies and there is enough NFL history that you can find whatever stats you want to support your argument.  My argument is that with just 13 starts in the NFL absolutely nobody knows what Trubisky will be in year 4.  After just 1 road game in year 2 it's way too early to write him off.  He's not Cade McNown or Rex Grossman because we already know he has the work ethic and desire to succeed.   I think he ends up somewhere between an Andy Dalton type as his floor, and top 5 QB as his ceiling.  Either way, at this point I think he deserves our patience and support as he learns his craft, especially in this new offense.   

  

 

I’d agree with most of what you say, with only this caveat.  Where were Brees, Brady and Rodgers drafted?  Not round one, pick 2.  For me, at this point, that’s the only real heartache I have with it.  I’m not a full fledged fan of Pace.  But this discussion is not about him, only that he brought us Trub.  

Sure Trub could prove to be a legitimate franchise QB and he could prove to have a better work ethic than did McNown or Grossman (also former 1st rounders).  But at this point we need results and measured success.  I don’t necessarily want for him to turn the franchise around in one day, week or even year...just sooner than later.  It took five (?) years for Rodgers to go from draftee to super bowl champ.  And three of those were while Favre was still playing. Trubskys audition is starting earlier and to be measured fairly he’ll have to produce faster.  

[adam]

On 9/12/2018 at 12:32 PM, madlithuanian said:

Seriously...  Either pitch it to Burton or run it in!

If he runs, it's hard to see him not making it inside the 10.  He admitted that he didn't want to force it and throw an INT in the Red Zone. So I think he didn't trust his arm there, but then threw to Cohen who was in a crowd anyway. So whos knows. I would rather seem pull it down and just go straight towards the end zone.

[AZ54]

13 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I’d agree with most of what you say, with only this caveat.  Where were Brees, Brady and Rodgers drafted?  Not round one, pick 2.  For me, at this point, that’s the only real heartache I have with it.  I’m not a full fledged fan of Pace.  But this discussion is not about him, only that he brought us Trub.  

Sure Trub could prove to be a legitimate franchise QB and he could prove to have a better work ethic than did McNown or Grossman (also former 1st rounders).  But at this point we need results and measured success.  I don’t necessarily want for him to turn the franchise around in one day, week or even year...just sooner than later.  It took five (?) years for Rodgers to go from draftee to super bowl champ.  And three of those were while Favre was still playing. Trubskys audition is starting earlier and to be measured fairly he’ll have to produce faster.  

Before the league changed the rules to make it harder to play defense it was easier to win games with a very good D and an average QB.  Because of the high failure rate teams didn't value QBs back then as much as they do today.   In today's NFL you either have a good QB or you are looking for one.  There isn't much middle ground anymore, certainly not as much as when Trent Dilfer won a Superbowl.  

That's one part of it.  I think what's in fashion in the draft is another and teams have to understand what other teams are likely to do.  Five years ago RB weren't being draft much in the first round so you could still find a good talent in the 2nd/3rd Rds.   Now drafting RBs early is the latest trend and if you want a good one you better not wait that long.   It's the same with QBs.  It's like Free Agency because the price of an elite RB just went way up this year.  Steelers could have had LeVeon Bell signed two years ago for far less guaranteed than what he'll end up with next year.    QB salaries too are through the roof when a guy like JimmyG gets a max type deal for 5 games.  Like it or not (most are in the not category) Trubisky was the QB Pace wanted among the top 3 that year an he wasn't going to take the risk of losing him.  Mahomes cost KC two first Rd picks.  Wentz cost the Eagles two 1st Rd picks.     

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Found this on YouTube.  All of Trubisky’s runs and passes from week 1.  My first brush of it was he looked good starting out but as the game wore on he got happy feet (as others pointed out) and became less accurate, even on the short throws.  

One big positive is that Howard seems to have cleaned up his receiving skills pretty nicely.  

 

[jason]

I don't believe that "if he throws it there will be an interception"-BS. Everyone saying that must have been away for a snack break when Trubisky threw a rocket into triple coverage and completed a ball to Robinson in a window smaller than Chris Collinsworth's sphincter after a night with Aaron Rodgers.