Trubisky QB Rating

[AZ54]

Lost in the frustration in the loss against MIami is the fact that, quietly, Trubisky has moved into 7th place in QB Rating in the NFL.   He sits behind Mahomes (5th and trending down) and Goff (6th) and ahead of in descending order:    Wilson, Wentz, Cousins, Rodgers, Brady, Roethlisberger, Dalton, Stafford, Newton, Watson, Carr, Luck, Prescott, among others.   

As I always say QB Rating has it's demerits so I'm not married to it as the best way, or even a good way, to evaluate QBs.  Nonetheless 7 games into the season there is some statistical relevance to it.  His surge forward two weeks ago was "solely" because of Tampa's bad defense. He continued playing well overall against Miami's good secondary.   The next game against New England will be interesting.  

First, NE just played against Mahomes so their defense gets to see the same offense two weeks in a row.  That may help them but it could be a big help for us because they've already shown their hand.   Those all out blitzes (cover 0) that rattled Mahomes several times are likely to be in the game plan against Trubisky.  It will be interesting to see what Nagy schemes up to counter it and how Mitch executes it.  They also focused heavily on delaying Kelce from getting into his routes with a LB often hitting him hard right off the LOS.   

[BearFan PHX]

Ratings are helpful, but they dont tell the whole story.

Im a realist about Trubisky. I call him a baby predator. Like a kitten that looks truly ferocious one moment, and then trip over her tail the next. This isnt meant as a put down to Trubisky, I truly think all the great NFL QBs went through this phase, and I like Nagy's approach of letting Trubisky play big, fail and learn, rather than trying to manage wins out of a young QB by playing it safe, and therefore failing to develop him into a real predator.

So Im high on Trubisky's future, but right now, he shows flashes, but he's not as good as the rating says.

The rating doesn't count interceptions that the defense drops. It doesnt count losing composure and chucking the ball up as a prayer.

It does say that you could edit a bunch of good plays into a reel and make it look like Trubisky has arrived as a dominant QB, you can do that with the kitten too. But you could also make a reel that makes him look dangerously flummoxed, and deeply flawed.

And Trubisky is neither of those things, or he is both. He is being asked to be Tom Brady, and he is falling short. Of course! The question is do you develop him as a bad Brady until he becomes a good one, or try to turn him into Trent Dilfer to win a couple more games? For me, theyre doing it just right. But hes not there yet, hes going to be uneven week in and week out this year. And thats OK.

But the rating is just an indication of what he will be when he grows up, and not who he is right now. Because if you hypothetically knew somehow that Trubisky would stay at exactly this level, and not progress, you'd be trying to figure out how to get another QB without a first or second round draft pick in your pocket. Rating or not.

[AZ54]

35 minutes ago, BearFan NYC said:

The rating doesn't count interceptions that the defense drops. It doesnt count losing composure and chucking the ball up as a prayer.

It does say that you could edit a bunch of good plays into a reel and make it look like Trubisky has arrived as a dominant QB, you can do that with the kitten too. But you could also make a reel that makes him look dangerously flummoxed, and deeply flawed.
 

That's true for all of these QBs including Brady throwing up a prayer into double coverage that happened to be answered by Josh Gordon a week ago.  I don't see where I said that he's arrived just that he's made more progress than he's being given credit for.  Three weeks ago everyone complained he had never put up multiple TD games like Mahomes or Watson have.  Now he's done it two weeks in a row.  To be fair I"m seeing more articles popup on the web saying he improved but at the moment it's only among some Bears fans. 

At the end of the day no QB is perfect.  If Bears fans applied the Trubisky microscope equally to other QBs they'd realize he's getting closer to the top 10 QBs where we want him to be.  The gap that remains is consistency but he's stringing together more and more good plays and drives.  As someone else said...Trubisky is not at the media-darling level where people ignore his mistakes like they do with Watson or Mahomes.  If he can put up a good game against NE the national narrative will start to change.  That is a tough ask but I'm looking forward to seeing how he answers it.   If he regresses then we're right back in the "why did we trade for him" argument.  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

Even though we lost, Trubisky and the offenses performance (minus the turnovers) was such a positive that I leave Sunday's game with a good taste in my mouth. Why, because Mitch's growth as a QB (and positive growth at that) is the key to the LT trajectory of this franchise. This week's performance was another step in the right direction. Was he perfect, absolutely not, but I saw way more good and bad and as a whole, certainly see more and more signs that this guy could be our franchise QB. None of that means he is at that point yet or that he is a slam dunk, but he's certainly making a lot more plays these past few weeks and I agree with the above posts that Nagy's approach to development hopefully fast-tracked some of his development.  

I hope we keep talking about his positive trajectory all year

[adam]

Trubisky is top 10 in a bunch of categories.  Very solid TD percentage, TD:INT ratio, etc. A very promising start. 

The only issue that stands out is his Situational Stats for the last two minutes of the half. He has a 19.5 Rating, 5/16, 31.2%, 0 TD and 1 INT. That has to improve. 

The real test will be next week at home against NE. With Mahomes just playing NE and Watson playing them last month, we will have a good comparison for the young QB's.

 

I am still sick of the media bias. Mahomes had two bad games before the NE game, and was having a bad game before this happened in the 2nd half:

1. 67-yard TD pass to Kareem Hunt, a 3 man rush, 5 seconds to pass, no defender within 5 yards of Hunt and no over-the-top coverage.
2. Starting from NE 29 yard line - short field, easy TD pass
3. Starting from NE 3 yard line - very short field, easy TD pass
4. 75-yard TD pass to Tyreek Hill, zero pass rush, 5 seconds to pass with no rusher within 4 yards of Mahomes and no defender within 5 yards of Hill in a single high safety look 

4 TD passes, and two long passes on what essentially was zero pass rush and blown coverage on both plays. The difference right now is that Mahomes is hitting all the deep balls, and Trubisky misses at least one easy long ball per game. Once he hits those, it will be hard to argue that Mahomes is better. 

 

[adam]

4-5 seconds to pass to Hill, 6 blockers, 4 rushers, no one even close to Mahomes at the throw.

 

Hill literally wide open, a few frames before this Hill was only one on screen. He has the single high safety to beat who takes a bad angle, easy TD.
 

Pass to Hunt, who broke off route, DB lost him staring into backfield, no over the top protection, the 2 deepest players are on KC. Easy TD.

So Mahomes gets credit for these and the 3 yard drive TD, when all he had to do is make an east toss with no pressure.

[BearFan PHX]

just so im clear, I dont think Trubisky is a top 10 QB right now today, stats or no, but I do think he's headed to being a top 5 QB. Im very glad to see him getting better and have patience this year for him to get the experience he needs to be a killer.

He's good enough that we will win games with him right now, but this is not the final product, not even close. and thats a positive statement!

[Alaskan Grizzly]

So...speaking of QB ratings; I’ll be curious after tonight’s game to see how Beathard’s measures up to Trubiksy’s performance against GB..in GB.  Beathard is looking pretty solid. 

And someone remind me again why the Bears got rid of Robbie Gould? 

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

So...speaking of QB ratings; I’ll be curious after tonight’s game to see how Beathard’s measures up to Trubiksy’s performance against GB..in GB.  Beathard is looking pretty solid. 

And someone remind me again why the Bears got rid of Robbie Gould? 

Gould was missing lots of FGs and extra points.  

[Stinger226]

7 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

So...speaking of QB ratings; I’ll be curious after tonight’s game to see how Beathard’s measures up to Trubiksy’s performance against GB..in GB.  Beathard is looking pretty solid. 

And someone remind me again why the Bears got rid of Robbie Gould? 

It doesn't matter what other QBs do its about progress MT makes game to game. Gould had a bad year when we let him go. The change of scenery caused him to work harder so now he  plays better. Hicks played with NO and NE but they let him go and now he is all star type play. That is just the way it works sometimes. 

[BearFan2000]

2 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

It doesn't matter what other QBs do its about progress MT makes game to game. Gould had a bad year when we let him go. The change of scenery caused him to work harder so now he  plays better. Hicks played with NO and NE but they let him go and now he is all star type play. That is just the way it works sometimes. 

Exactly,  we easily forget Gould was looking worse and worse his last couple years here.  He was costing us games.  And I agree 100% and he said it himself getting cut woke him up and made him refocus.  He's done well for the 49ers.  A lot of times we fall for the grass is greener thing.  Players get complacent and sometimes a change of scenery wakes them up.  I'm glad that happened with Hicks.

On to Trubiskey, from both a stats and the eye test something started clicking with him the week before the bye.  What I wanted to see was would he carry that into the Dolphins game after the bye?  The answer is yes.  He's not yet arrived and consistency and playing biggest in the clutch has progress to make before we start thinking of him in the top 10 of the league. But I like what I'm seeing out of him.  Success breeds confidence and confidence breeds success.  I feel like Mitch is growing in confidence.  Our D had it's worst game of the season.  If your offense in a close game blows up for 28 points in the second half you'd think you walk away with a win.  But we gave up 28 points and lost in OT.  We can talk about the INT in the end zone and it was a bad throw he didn't need to make.  His guy is covered throw it out the back of the end zone and live to fight another down and he'll learn from that.  But had the refs not screwed us on the previous play we end the drive with 7.  Instead they get the ball back and get a quick easy score.  that is a 14 pt swing and put us behind the 8 ball.  Then after that Mitch leads us right down the field to answer and we're up 28-21 with 3-4 min left.  All the D has to do is keep them out of the end zone and we win.  Then a stream of bad happens and we allow Friggin Osweiler and Wilson to connect on an improbably TD pass that reminds us of the times Rodgers and Cobb have burned us late in games.  But in OT after a very fortunate goal line fumble, Mitch drove the offense down into Parkey's FG range.  I don't agree with sitting on the ball once we got into his range.  Why not get at least one more first down?  We had time, make the FG as easy as possible.  We settled.  That's not on Mitch that's on the play calling.  A bad snap made the kick hard and Parkey misses.  Then the mistake of settling at the edge of his range the Dolphins take over needing merely to get 30 yards or so to get their kicker in range.  When our D had proved it couldn't stop a nose bleed.  I can only comment on the second half as I haven't seen the first half.  But from what I saw Trubiskey stepped up and put the Bears in a position to win even with the INT in the end zone.  He lead the offense to 28 second half points in most games that will get you a win.   So I'm encouraged with Trubiskey's future.  When you look at a lot of the greats their careers didn't start off great.  Payton Manning threw a ton of picks his first year, Rodgers looked awful at times when he took over, and you can go on.  Not saying he's either of those guys, but I like what I'm seeing.  And if we keep this staff and this offense around him for the long term he has a good chance to grow into that franchise QB we've been long searching for.  We haven't had consistent QB play but we also haven't had consistency around our QBs either.  Rodgers, Manning, Brady, Brees, etc.  One thing they all have in common is consistency in staff and system.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

On 10/16/2018 at 1:30 AM, Stinger226 said:

It doesn't matter what other QBs do its about progress MT makes game to game.

‘Doesn’t matter what other QBs do’...on a thread that started by comparing Trubisky to other QBs.  I see.  Should I not be curious about how well a third round backup QB did against the same team our 1st round ‘franchise’ QB played against only a few weeks previously?  Which plays into the second part of your comment and his ‘progress’.  I just find it interesting that Beathard did as well as he did given his ranking and background.  And ‘our QB’ is ‘progressing’ since his game with GB. 

As as far as Gould and his more recent success I found an article that summarized my thoughts on the matter.  I’ll summarize; “Last season, Bears kickers Connor Barth Mike Nugent and Cairo Santos, ...combined to miss six kicks, including two of four from beyond 50 yards.”  “In 2016, Barth missed five of 23 field goals, including two from 50 yards or beyond.

Since Pace dumped Gould before the 2015 season, the Bears’ all-time leading scorer has converted 62 of 65 field-goal attempts, including all four from 50 yards or longer. He has been good on 13 of 14 this season for the 49ers, including hitting all three attempts against the Packers on Monday night.” And, 

“Since Pace booted Gould, Bears kickers have missed 13 field-goal tries, or more than four times the number Gould has missed. ... Starting in 2016, Bears kickers have missed five attempts beyond 50 yards while Gould has been perfect.”

Sure the change of scenery perhaps helped Gould but what did it do for the Bears?  Thats more of a conviction of Pace than anything which still personally concerns me. 

Article here:  http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/ct-spt-bears-matt-nagy-cody-parkey-robbie-gould-rosenbloom-20181016-story.html

[Connorbear]

 I believe the Bears cutting Gould had more to do with Fox not trusting him than Pace moving on from him.  I'm happy that Gould was able to refocus his career but I simply don't see him having that success without being cut. 

Peace

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Gould was the highest paid kicker in the NFL on a team that was in the gutter at the time. He was missing game winning kicks, his kickoffs were not great, and he was not afraid to be vocal which imo the kicker should not be the face or voice of your franchise (even though it was nearly down to that). If Gould stuck around, would he rebound on his own and return to form bc he wasn't looking good that preseason they cut him. I believe the cut put him back into focus. He got pissed and it turned his career around. It happens and I do not hold it against Pace for the move. The group he brought in afterwards is a different story.

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Gould was the highest paid kicker in the NFL on a team that was in the gutter at the time. He was missing game winning kicks, his kickoffs were not great, and he was not afraid to be vocal which imo the kicker should not be the face or voice of your franchise (even though it was nearly down to that). If Gould stuck around, would he rebound on his own and return to form bc he wasn't looking good that preseason they cut him. I believe the cut put him back into focus. He got pissed and it turned his career around. It happens and I do not hold it against Pace for the move. The group he brought in afterwards is a different story.

agree with all of that.

[madlithuanian]

22 hours ago, BearFan NYC said:

agree with all of that.

Doubly so...

[Alaskan Grizzly]

On 10/17/2018 at 8:27 AM, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I do not hold it against Pace for the move. The group he brought in afterwards is a different story.

I’ll agree with all that.  As I said before, to me this is more a concern I have with Pace.  And quite honestly couldn’t remember specifically why it was Gould left.  Just recall at the time I didn’t like it . And although maybe not a popular idea, having an outspoken kicker isn’t all that bad; ergo Kevin Butler aka “Butthead”.  (As an interesting note of trivia: both Parkey and Gould broke records previously held by Butler. Team leading scorer (Gould) and rookie scoring record (Parkey)).

But enough about Gould.  This thread is about Trubisky.  Is he really improving? You be the judge.  

 

[ChileBear]

What I've seen so far this year, I like. Man, Alaska, you are becoming MR. NEGATIVE NANCY every week. Hey, hop on the improved wagon and just enjoy the new ride.

[adam]

I really like this site's take on stats: https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/qb

Check out the QB stats, Trubisky is 13th best QB based on DVOA (11th in QBR). 

The Bears as a team are 3rd only behind LAR and KC, even after the loss to Miami. Miami is 6th and NE is 9th. We have the 4th best odds to make the playoffs (74.7%) only behind LAR, KC, and NO. 

[Mongo3451]

Gotta say, I hate stats.  Eye test tells me Trubisky is getting better...

[Alaskan Grizzly]

5 hours ago, ChileBear said:

Man, Alaska, you are becoming MR. NEGATIVE NANCY every week

Perhaps it’s the slow turn of winter where the days are dark and the nights are long.  I actually consider my commentary as more critical.  But I’m curious what is ‘negative’ about what I’m saying?  Is it inaccurate or do you just not like the tone? 

[ChileBear]

9 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Perhaps it’s the slow turn of winter where the days are dark and the nights are long.  I actually consider my commentary as more critical.  But I’m curious what is ‘negative’ about what I’m saying?  Is it inaccurate or do you just not like the tone? 

Tone, I guess. What I have seen so far this year is a much improved offense from years past and I'm liking it. Doesn't mean I think they are perfect and you've got every right to analyze. Just think you need to look a bit more at the glass half full side.

[jason]

11 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Gotta say, I hate stats.  Eye test tells me Trubisky is getting better...

Co-signed. What I like the most is that if he throws a check-down or a pass for less than 10 yards, he can thread that needle with deadly accuracy.

However, he has serious flaws right now with three critical things:

1. The long ball. He floats it up and overthrows his receivers. Could be a mechanical issue.
2. The internal alarm clock. He has the propensity to run at a greater rate than I like. If the pocket is there, sit in it and find a receiver.
3. Decision making. Honestly, there should have been 4 interceptions by the Dolphins. If not more.

[adam]

33 minutes ago, jason said:

Co-signed. What I like the most is that if he throws a check-down or a pass for less than 10 yards, he can thread that needle with deadly accuracy.

However, he has serious flaws right now with three critical things:

1. The long ball. He floats it up and overthrows his receivers. Could be a mechanical issue.
2. The internal alarm clock. He has the propensity to run at a greater rate than I like. If the pocket is there, sit in it and find a receiver.
3. Decision making. Honestly, there should have been 4 interceptions by the Dolphins. If not more.

On #1, he has hit a few, but has also missed badly on others. We are probably 5-0 if he hits on the ones he missed. For #2, it seems like he gets happy feet without any pressure. Hopefully this will calm down with more reps. On #3, almost every game he has a couple of bad passes, which he probably got away with in college. With the tougher competition, he has to be better. The INT against Miami was to Braunecker with multiple defenders there, it almost looked like he threw it there blindly because the DB was standing there the entire time.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, ChileBear said:

Tone, I guess. What I have seen so far this year is a much improved offense from years past and I'm liking it. Doesn't mean I think they are perfect and you've got every right to analyze. Just think you need to look a bit more at the glass half full side.

Fair enough.  There’s a lot I like on the team; Nagy, Fangio, Mack, Howard, Robinson and a few I don’t trust; Trubisky, Cohen and Pace but all in all yes things are much better...so far.