Trubisky QB Rating

[Stinger226]

He is going to have good and bad games, by the end of the season we need to see few mistakes to have this follow his development. That should put us in the playoffs.

[ChileBear]

4 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

He is going to have good and bad games, by the end of the season we need to see few mistakes to have this follow his development. That should put us in the playoffs.

Look at both the MMQB at SI and Peter King at NBC sports. We are headed in the right direction. The D is so lovable (see Peter King), and the O is only going to improve (see interview with Nagy after the game at MMQB)

Like the direction the franchise is going.

LOVE MY BEARS!!!

[adam]

1 hour ago, ChileBear said:

Look at both the MMQB at SI and Peter King at NBC sports. We are headed in the right direction. The D is so lovable (see Peter King), and the O is only going to improve (see interview with Nagy after the game at MMQB)

Like the direction the franchise is going.

LOVE MY BEARS!!!

The MMQB article has some odd comments:

"Indeed, the Bears feature a lot of pre-snap motion, misdirection and multi-option designs. But the difference is, while Reid uses the scheme as a weapon to feature his young QB, Nagy uses the scheme as a tool to hide his. The Bears are Chiefs Lite."

So Nagy uses the scheme to hide Trubisky? That is what it is called now. Not playing to his strengths? If anything, we are handcuffed at RB because Howard now seems too one-dimensional, especially compared to Kareem Hunt. Yet the article states this about Howard: "Instead of just pounding the rock and relying on tailback Jordan Howard’s tackle-breaking prowess".... I like Howard and all, but tackle-breaking prowess? Like he is running over people. Howard has the 4th lowest YPC for qualified players. 

 

[adam]

By the way, Trubisky now is 190/290, 65.5%, 2304 yards, 19 TD, 7 INT, and a QBR of 75.2 (4th in NFL) only behind Brees, Mahomes, and Rivers.

In regards to QBR, Trubisky has the 3rd best game this year (TB), and 3 total games in the top 25, with the 19th (DET), and 23rd (NYJ).  Compared to other young QBs, Mahomes has one game in top 25, Watson has one game, and Mayfield has two.  Brees has 3 in the top 25. Trubisky's game against TB was the 47th best QBR game since 2006 (out of 6323 games).

 

Trubisky's 16-game projection now at: 338/516, 4096 yards, 34 TDs, 12 INTs

Kramer most yards: 3838 (1995), 258 yards ahead of pace for record

Kramer most TDs: 29 (1995), 5 TD's ahead of pace for record

Cutler most completions: 370 (2014)

Cutler most attempts: 561 (2014)

For fun:

Trubisky is now 19th for Passing Yards in franchise history with 4497, next up, Bobby Douglass with 4932. If Trubisky stays near his projection, he will surpass Grossman, Evans, Tomczak, Bukich, and Lujack to land in the top 10 by season's end. That's crazy. Mitch is also 19th with 10 wins (next up Zeke Bratkowski with 11) and 20th with 26 TD's (next up Douglass and Orton with 30).

Rushing QBs, Trubisky now 9th all-time in team history and is 18 yards from 8th. For a single-season, Trubisky is projected to have the 2nd best rushing season for a QB behind only Bobby Douglass' 968 yards in 1972. The 2nd best season right now is Douglass with 525, and Trubisky is projected to have 568 rushing yards.

[adam]

Career Passing Numbers for First Round QB's in the 2017 Draft (w/ analytical ranking system similar to PFF):

Passing Yards
1. Trubisky - 4497
2. Watson - 4088
3. Mahomes - 3434

Rushing Yards
1. Trubisky - 568
2. Watson - 537
3. Mahomes - 168

Wins
1. Trubisky - 10
1. Mahomes - 10
3. Watson - 9

Passing TD
1. Watson - 36
2. Mahomes - 31
3. Trubisky - 26

Rushing TD
1. Trubisky - 5
2. Watson - 3
3. Mahomes - 2

Comp
1. Trubisky - 386
2. Watson - 311
3. Mahomes - 253

Att
1. Trubisky - 620
2. Watson - 489
3. Mahomes - 380

Comp%
1. Mahomes 66.6%
2. Watson - 63.6%
3. Trubisky - 62.3%

Sacks
1. Mahomes - 19
2. Trubisky - 49
2. Watson - 49

INTs
1. Mahomes - 8
2. Trubisky - 14
3. Watson - 15

Ranking Pts (3 pts for 1st, 2 pts for 2nd, 1 pt for last):
1. Trubisky - 24
2. Watson - 19
2. Mahomes - 19

* Note - Over 20 is a franchise QB, under 20 is a QB with a great supporting cast of skill positions players that boost up his stats.

[AZ54]

8 hours ago, adam said:

Career Passing Numbers for First Round QB's in the 2017 Draft (w/ analytical ranking system similar to PFF):

Passing Yards
1. Trubisky - 4497
2. Watson - 4088
3. Mahomes - 3434

Rushing Yards
1. Trubisky - 568
2. Watson - 537
3. Mahomes - 168

Wins
1. Trubisky - 10
1. Mahomes - 10
3. Watson - 9

Passing TD
1. Watson - 36
2. Mahomes - 31
3. Trubisky - 26

Rushing TD
1. Trubisky - 5
2. Watson - 3
3. Mahomes - 2

Comp
1. Trubisky - 386
2. Watson - 311
3. Mahomes - 253

Att
1. Trubisky - 620
2. Watson - 489
3. Mahomes - 380

Comp%
1. Mahomes 66.6%
2. Watson - 63.6%
3. Trubisky - 62.3%

Sacks
1. Mahomes - 19
2. Trubisky - 49
2. Watson - 49

INTs
1. Mahomes - 8
2. Trubisky - 14
3. Watson - 15

Ranking Pts (3 pts for 1st, 2 pts for 2nd, 1 pt for last):
1. Trubisky - 24
2. Watson - 19
2. Mahomes - 19

* Note - Over 20 is a franchise QB, under 20 is a QB with a great supporting cast of skill positions players that boost up his stats.

Interesting approach to the analysis.  I'm not sure about the ranking at the end of it.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Rather than quote all that you did with the comparative stats on Watson, Mahomes and Trubisky I'll emphasize context.  We need to remember that of the three QB's used in the comparisons, Trubisky has the most starts.  Which can skew the numbers you used.  Since being drafted last year Trubisky has 21 starts (10 wins 11 losses), Watson has 16 starts (9-6) and Mahomes has 11 starts (10-1).  So stats like passing yards, rushing yards and attempts could be explained by the fact that he simply has had more time on the field to accomplish these things.  But...stats like completions and completion percentages, although third in this group, is still above 60% which is a good thing. 

I agree with what some others here observed in the last game.  The 'eye test' is telling me that Mitch is getting more comfortable in the offense.  I saw a few times where he was either looking off the safety to one side or simply going through his progressions and appeared to be comfortable in doing it.  I didn't see the 'happy feet' as we had seen in games past.  Minnesota we know has a pretty respectable defense so I'm hoping all the positive growth we saw in this game doesn't regress because of the pressure we know the Vikings can produce.  I think to counter them and give Mitch a better chance we really need to see more use out of Howard.  Still baffled why he isn't getting more use.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Rather than quote all that you did with the comparative stats on Watson, Mahomes and Trubisky I'll emphasize context.  We need to remember that of the three QB's used in the comparisons, Trubisky has the most starts.  Which can skew the numbers you used.  Since being drafted last year Trubisky has 21 starts (10 wins 11 losses), Watson has 16 starts (9-6) and Mahomes has 11 starts (10-1).  So stats like passing yards, rushing yards and attempts could be explained by the fact that he simply has had more time on the field to accomplish these things.  But...stats like completions and completion percentages, although third in this group, is still above 60% which is a good thing. 

I agree with what some others here observed in the last game.  The 'eye test' is telling me that Mitch is getting more comfortable in the offense.  I saw a few times where he was either looking off the safety to one side or simply going through his progressions and appeared to be comfortable in doing it.  I didn't see the 'happy feet' as we had seen in games past.  Minnesota we know has a pretty respectable defense so I'm hoping all the positive growth we saw in this game doesn't regress because of the pressure we know the Vikings can produce.  I think to counter them and give Mitch a better chance we really need to see more use out of Howard.  Still baffled why he isn't getting more use.

The Minnesota game is going to be a real test. This will be by far the best defense Trubisky has faced all season.  Its also one of the better offenses the Bears will face (especially now that Minnesota has Cook back in the backfield).  I will state right now, no matter how good or BAD the game ends up being, I'm not going to overreact.  This will be a good measure for the Bears as to where they stand...that said, the game to me has no measure on their LT future, albeit, I do think it is a good measuring stick to their current progress.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

The Minnesota game is going to be a real test. This will be by far the best defense Trubisky has faced all season.  Its also one of the better offenses the Bears will face (especially now that Minnesota has Cook back in the backfield).  I will state right now, no matter how good or BAD the game ends up being, I'm not going to overreact.  This will be a good measure for the Bears as to where they stand...that said, the game to me has no measure on their LT future, albeit, I do think it is a good measuring stick to their current progress.  

I think that is well stated and couldn't agree with you more.  One thing that has pestered me (in the good) in the back of my mind is that in the Bears' losses this year; they were all by a combined 11 points.  This includes a loss to the perennial winning team New England and the perennial 'pull the win out of their asses' Packers.  I have a general favorable feeling about this upcoming game against Minny and even if it doesn't swing to our favor, we'll have another shot of them before the year is out. 

To be frank, based on what I've seen this year I'm not worried about GB anymore. IMHO, Minnesota is really the only team that will give the Bears a run for the NFC North. 

[adam]

6 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Rather than quote all that you did with the comparative stats on Watson, Mahomes and Trubisky I'll emphasize context.  We need to remember that of the three QB's used in the comparisons, Trubisky has the most starts.  Which can skew the numbers you used.  Since being drafted last year Trubisky has 21 starts (10 wins 11 losses), Watson has 16 starts (9-6) and Mahomes has 11 starts (10-1).  So stats like passing yards, rushing yards and attempts could be explained by the fact that he simply has had more time on the field to accomplish these things.  But...stats like completions and completion percentages, although third in this group, is still above 60% which is a good thing. 

I agree with what some others here observed in the last game.  The 'eye test' is telling me that Mitch is getting more comfortable in the offense.  I saw a few times where he was either looking off the safety to one side or simply going through his progressions and appeared to be comfortable in doing it.  I didn't see the 'happy feet' as we had seen in games past.  Minnesota we know has a pretty respectable defense so I'm hoping all the positive growth we saw in this game doesn't regress because of the pressure we know the Vikings can produce.  I think to counter them and give Mitch a better chance we really need to see more use out of Howard.  Still baffled why he isn't getting more use.

Alaska, I was being a little tongue in cheek with the actual rankings understanding that Trubisky clearly had more games so would have more raw stats. 

However, how many top 10 WR's, TE's, and RB's does these QB's throw to?

Watson has Hopkins, who is a top 5 receiver, and Mahomes has Hill, Kelce, and Hunt all in the top 5 at their positions. So technically, Trubisky has the worst supporting cast for his career. 

[AZ54]

10 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

The Minnesota game is going to be a real test. This will be by far the best defense Trubisky has faced all season.  Its also one of the better offenses the Bears will face (especially now that Minnesota has Cook back in the backfield).  I will state right now, no matter how good or BAD the game ends up being, I'm not going to overreact.  This will be a good measure for the Bears as to where they stand...that said, the game to me has no measure on their LT future, albeit, I do think it is a good measuring stick to their current progress.  

Actually the Bills have a better defense than the Vikings.  It might not seem that way because they get zero help from their offense.  Giving up just 4.9 yards/play is 2nd best in the NFL while the Vikings are 7th and give up 5.3 yards/play.   The Bears are right behind Buffalo at 5.0 yards/play.    The Vikings are still a very good and sound defense.  With Everson Griffen back that helps them but we have Mack back in action.   My point is just that Trubisky has already seen this kind of pressure and stout run defense and that was on the road where audibles are hard to do.  

If you consider the defenses an even match, and on offense there is reasonable mix of good talent on both sides.  This game could simply come down to how well Trubisky plays versus Cousins. That should be a huge advantage for the veteran Cousins.  I know this much, a veteran team like the Vikings is going to arrive ready to deliver a knockout punch.  I think we can deliver a few of our own.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

11 hours ago, adam said:

Watson has Hopkins, who is a top 5 receiver, and Mahomes has Hill, Kelce, and Hunt all in the top 5 at their positions. So technically, Trubisky has the worst supporting cast for his career. 

Wasn’t Allen Robinson the top ranked FA at least at his position going into last off-season? Jordan Howard is a 1,000 yard rusher in each of his first two years.  And although not perhaps the top-ranked TE in the NFL, Trey Burton has won a Super Bowl.  I wouldn’t necessarily consider them the ‘worst’. 

[Connorbear]

18 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Wasn’t Allen Robinson the top ranked FA at least at his position going into last off-season? Jordan Howard is a 1,000 yard rusher in each of his first two years.  And although not perhaps the top-ranked TE in the NFL, Trey Burton has won a Super Bowl.  I wouldn’t necessarily consider them the ‘worst’. 

I would say last year his supporting cast was Howard, Cohen and a bunch of guys who are bottom feeder in the league (his first 12 games).  He now has a much improved supporting cast.  

Peace

[adam]

17 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Wasn’t Allen Robinson the top ranked FA at least at his position going into last off-season? Jordan Howard is a 1,000 yard rusher in each of his first two years.  And although not perhaps the top-ranked TE in the NFL, Trey Burton has won a Super Bowl.  I wouldn’t necessarily consider them the ‘worst’. 

If you had to rank the skill positions individually, WR would probably go Hopkins, Hill, Robinson; RB would go Hunt, Howard/Cohen, Miller; TE: Kelce, Burton. So lowest top end talent, but probably the best group as a whole. Also, consider what Trubisky had to throw to last year (Wright, Bellamy, and Inman were his leading WRs). 

[adam]

So much for Trubisky not being able to throw to his left.  /Narrative

[adam]

Trubisky now 4th in the NFL in QBR at 75.1, only behind Brees, Mahomes, and Rivers (75.4). 

[AZ54]

14 hours ago, adam said:

Trubisky now 4th in the NFL in QBR at 75.1, only behind Brees, Mahomes, and Rivers (75.4). 

Lose and he plays poorly and it will be a bunch of "I told you so" on Monday.  If he plays well and we win we're going to need a bigger bus for all the bandwagon media.  The most likely outcome is a middle of the road performance because they have a good defense.    

[Alaskan Grizzly]

11 hours ago, AZ54 said:

The most likely outcome is a middle of the road performance because they have a good defense. 

If Mitch plays within his current abilities, things should go fine.  I suspect we’ll see a more restrained version of the WCO which this offense is based on.  More short dumps, maybe a Howard sighting or two and less Trub trying to stretch the field.  That’s where bad happens.  

[adam]

Somehow Trubisky pulled off a QBR of 85.3 on SNF, and is now 3rd in the NFL behind Brees and Mahomes.

http://www.espn.com/nfl/qbr/_/type/player-week

[adam]

Hopefully that MNF game (which was epic) quells some of the national media narrative. Mahomes had some big plays to completely wide open receivers, but with the game on the line, he completely choked and threw back to back INT's to end the game when all they needed was a FG. He also threw a Pick-6 earlier and lost a fumble that was returned for a TD. He had 5 turnovers total, tying Nate Peterman for the most turnovers in the last few years. 

[AZ54]

49 minutes ago, adam said:

Hopefully that MNF game (which was epic) quells some of the national media narrative. Mahomes had some big plays to completely wide open receivers, but with the game on the line, he completely choked and threw back to back INT's to end the game when all they needed was a FG. He also threw a Pick-6 earlier and lost a fumble that was returned for a TD. He had 5 turnovers total, tying Nate Peterman for the most turnovers in the last few years. 

You do realize when their name is not Trubisky you are supposed to only count the positive plays?   Don't even get into the "that should have been an INT" realm either.   

If this was a Trubisky game there is zero doubt he gets roasted by the national media for all those mistakes.  He would have been the guy who was leading the race by far and crashed into the wall with nobody around him.  People wouldn't forget how he overthrew a 6'5" Travis Kelce early in the game.  It's week 11 why can't he get his timing down on these routes!   How he threw a pass at the ankles of a wide open 6'5" Travis Kelce as he crossed the middle for what would have been a big gain late in the game.   Or when he threw the ball into the dirt missing an open Kareem Hunt in the right flat near the end of the game.  The Pick Six?   OMFG when is he ever going to fix his throwing mechanics!   Yep, Mitch blew this game.  He scored or his turnovers were responsible for nearly as many points for the Rams (21pts) as their offense delivered.  At the end of the game, with his team still in it needing just a game tying FG, he fails to step up in the pocket and instead throws one more INT trying to force a ball into deep triple coverage near the endzone.   

I said back in Week 4 or so, this is Mahomes and with him you live by the big plays and you die by them too.  If he does not have elite offensive talent around him you will see more of these high turnover games.  If Andy Reid can corral him and bring him back a bit closer to Alex Smith in the future he'll be great.  For now I think he's most likely to follow Favre's career (TD leader and INT leader) with the highs and lows, some great seasons and maybe a few not so great.  In the meantime, if you can get to him he'll press and make mistakes.  

[adam]

6 hours ago, AZ54 said:

You do realize when their name is not Trubisky you are supposed to only count the positive plays?   Don't even get into the "that should have been an INT" realm either.   

If this was a Trubisky game there is zero doubt he gets roasted by the national media for all those mistakes.  He would have been the guy who was leading the race by far and crashed into the wall with nobody around him.  People wouldn't forget how he overthrew a 6'5" Travis Kelce early in the game.  It's week 11 why can't he get his timing down on these routes!   How he threw a pass at the ankles of a wide open 6'5" Travis Kelce as he crossed the middle for what would have been a big gain late in the game.   Or when he threw the ball into the dirt missing an open Kareem Hunt in the right flat near the end of the game.  The Pick Six?   OMFG when is he ever going to fix his throwing mechanics!   Yep, Mitch blew this game.  He scored or his turnovers were responsible for nearly as many points for the Rams (21pts) as their offense delivered.  At the end of the game, with his team still in it needing just a game tying FG, he fails to step up in the pocket and instead throws one more INT trying to force a ball into deep triple coverage near the endzone.   

I said back in Week 4 or so, this is Mahomes and with him you live by the big plays and you die by them too.  If he does not have elite offensive talent around him you will see more of these high turnover games.  If Andy Reid can corral him and bring him back a bit closer to Alex Smith in the future he'll be great.  For now I think he's most likely to follow Favre's career (TD leader and INT leader) with the highs and lows, some great seasons and maybe a few not so great.  In the meantime, if you can get to him he'll press and make mistakes.  

I know it was crazy. He should've had 5 INTs and 3 fumbles which would've been the most turnovers in modern football by one player. It's just funny that people are celebrating the game because it was the wild wild west with no defense. Fun to watch, but if I am a KC fan, I don't know how I feel. When dudes are not wide open, he looks like a completely different QB. 

I agree that he is destined for boom or bust status, a bunch of TDs and INTs.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

11 hours ago, adam said:

Hopefully that MNF game (which was epic) quells some of the national media narrative. Mahomes had some big plays to completely wide open receivers, but with the game on the line, he completely choked and threw back to back INT's to end the game when all they needed was a FG. He also threw a Pick-6 earlier and lost a fumble that was returned for a TD. He had 5 turnovers total, tying Nate Peterman for the most turnovers in the last few years. 

Yeah - His team still scored 50+ points. There is no debating Mahomes vs. Trubisky at this point. Maybe one day Trubisky gets into that sphere, but right now, Mahomes is playing like one of the best young QB's in NFL history (hell he's essentially playing like one of the best QB's in NFL history).  Yes, he had the two picks...one of which was just a tremendous play by the defense and he did have some turnovers.  

I am a big Trubisky fan, but there is no way if I were a GM I would pick Trubisky over Mahomes at this point (based upon what has happened on the field). None.  That said, I'm very happy the Bears made the move they did make and I'm a big believer in Mitch. Hopefully we continue to see him progress and continue to make more steps forward.  His leadership skills and moxie are strong and he seems extremely intelligent.  I am excited to see him continue to grow and have not yet put a ceiling on what Mitch is/can be. I do believe his floor seems to be a quality game manager who can make the occasional big play.  

By the way, I should make it clear, I have not yet said that Mahomes will always be better than Mitch. There are many factors to weigh between the two, including who has better personell, who has more experience in the same system, etc.  That said, I just can't argue the raw stats as Mahomes has been so amazing. Again, I am happy we have Trubisky and I am so exstatic Pace actually invested in the QB he believed in.  

[AZ54]

11 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Yeah - His team still scored 50+ points. There is no debating Mahomes vs. Trubisky at this point. Maybe one day Trubisky gets into that sphere, but right now, Mahomes is playing like one of the best young QB's in NFL history (hell he's essentially playing like one of the best QB's in NFL history).  Yes, he had the two picks...one of which was just a tremendous play by the defense and he did have some turnovers.  

I am a big Trubisky fan, but there is no way if I were a GM I would pick Trubisky over Mahomes at this point (based upon what has happened on the field). None.  That said, I'm very happy the Bears made the move they did make and I'm a big believer in Mitch. Hopefully we continue to see him progress and continue to make more steps forward.  His leadership skills and moxie are strong and he seems extremely intelligent.  I am excited to see him continue to grow and have not yet put a ceiling on what Mitch is/can be. I do believe his floor seems to be a quality game manager who can make the occasional big play.  

By the way, I should make it clear, I have not yet said that Mahomes will always be better than Mitch. There are many factors to weigh between the two, including who has better personell, who has more experience in the same system, etc.  That said, I just can't argue the raw stats as Mahomes has been so amazing. Again, I am happy we have Trubisky and I am so exstatic Pace actually invested in the QB he believed in.  

There is this thing called recency bias.  I listen to "analysts' talk up this game like it was the highest scoring game ever but I believe the Bears once put up 63pts on a team in the playoffs.   Somewhere in their own graphic there was a higher combined score from 1966 (or something way back when).  How that could possibly occur when the rules weren't as slanted towards the offense and these modern-day gurus weren't even born yet is beyond me.  History aside everyone is ignoring the bad defenses we just watched.  It's normal people like to celebrate offense.  As a Bears fan I like good defense.  There were some clear issues that I saw with both QBs (Goff and Mahomes) when they were under pressure.  We will get our chance to match up against the Rams soon and I'm very curious to see this one play out.  I believe we can compete against them.  

For now I view the Saints as the clear best team in the NFL and with Brees at the helm they won't likely have the issues Goff and Mahomes displayed last night when the game gets tight.  If we are deserving of being in the top 5 it will show up the next 3 weeks.  

Power Ranking    Def yds/gm      DVOA Ranking

1) Saints            16th                      24th

2) Rams             21st                     16th

3) Chiefs            30th                     26th

4)  Steelers        6th                      13th

5)  Patriots         24th                   17th

6)  Chargers      14th                    11th

7)  Bears            3rd                       1st

8)  Texans          7th                      3rd

9)  Panthers      13th                    25th 

10)  Vikings       5th                     5th

[adam]

Looks like Trubisky will be out for Thanksgiving with Bray being called up. The only good part to this move is that Cooper was cut. Hopefully Daniel can come thru and play like he did in the preseason.