Trubisky QB Rating

[AZ54]

10 hours ago, adam said:

Looks like Trubisky will be out for Thanksgiving with Bray being called up. The only good part to this move is that Cooper was cut. Hopefully Daniel can come thru and play like he did in the preseason.

I"m really surprised Bray is getting called up.  I expected or was hoping that Trubisky could at least be the backup for the game.  That would indicate the injury was less severe.  Nagy is adamant that Trubisky won't take a snap this week.  Now I'm thinking he could miss a couple games.  

[Stinger226]

I think we have the luxury of a couple of weak opponents in the next few games, plus the mini bi- week to have him heal. Obviously it would have better for him to play to grow more, but I think it will all turn out okay. I think playing Daniel is a lift so we do not have a typical letdown after a big game last week. They all rally behind Chase and not relax. 

[adam]

7 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I think we have the luxury of a couple of weak opponents in the next few games, plus the mini bi- week to have him heal. Obviously it would have better for him to play to grow more, but I think it will all turn out okay. I think playing Daniel is a lift so we do not have a typical letdown after a big game last week. They all rally behind Chase and not relax. 

We play the Rams in two weeks, and depending if they lose a game between now and then might be for a first round bye. If he is not 100% for the Giants game, I would have no problem starting Daniel again with a full week of practice. 

[adam]

Why PFF is so inconsistent? Using pretty much any normal or advanced metric or grading system, and even the eye-ball test, it is clear that Mitch is playing much better this year. However, PFF has him playing worse than last year with a passing grade 17 pts lower. Come on. This is complete BS. Just look at some of the PFF grades vs the NFL QB Rating. They have the Miami game graded lower than the Minnesota game, yet in the Miami game, he had over 300 yds passing, 10.2 YPA, 3 TDs to 1 INT. This is where their grading system fails IMO. They have no idea what the play call was or if there was a mistake, if it was on the QB or receiver. On the flip side they had Adrian Amos as one of the top safeties last year, but no one on here really saw that or felt that way based on his stats or what we saw during the season. 

[adam]

Exhibit B, Pat Mahomes. Compare Trubisky's Miami game (71%/316yds/10.2/3/1 for a grade of 56.9) which is still 6 pts worse than any Mahomes games this year. Week 5 vs JAX, he threw for 313 yds, 57.9% Comp, 8.2 YA, 0 TD, and 2 INT, yet his score was a 69.0 (12 pts higher than Trubisky's MIA game). Come on man, this is complete BS. Take a look at some of the KC games, or Mahomes highlights, at least half of his big plays, his receivers are wide open.

[adam]

I took a look at Trubisky's numbers from all his starts in his career, averaged every 3 games together to see if there were any obvious trends (see pic below):

So since his first 3 starts (T1) in 2017, he is basically trending upwards in every statistical category. That is the good news. However, Since Week 6 of this season, he has dropped in every major statistical category and has had a steep drop off in the last two weeks. If he can get back to even just career averages, we are a deep playoff team. If he can play near his best, we have as good of a shot at a Super Bowl this year as any other team.

[Mongo3451]

Holy bipolar growth chart Batman!

[AZ54]

13 hours ago, adam said:

I took a look at Trubisky's numbers from all his starts in his career, averaged every 3 games together to see if there were any obvious trends (see pic below):

So since his first 3 starts (T1) in 2017, he is basically trending upwards in every statistical category. That is the good news. However, Since Week 6 of this season, he has dropped in every major statistical category and has had a steep drop off in the last two weeks. If he can get back to even just career averages, we are a deep playoff team. If he can play near his best, we have as good of a shot at a Super Bowl this year as any other team.

Is this a 3-game rolling average where you average the last 3 game together for each data point, or did you just group each 3 games together with an average value?  I think the rolling average will show a trend better.    

[adam]

2 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Is this a 3-game rolling average where you average the last 3 game together for each data point, or did you just group each 3 games together with an average value?  I think the rolling average will show a trend better.    

I just averaged the 3 together, but can easily do a rolling average for the same values. It will just smooth out some of the spikes.

[AZ54]

 

[adam]

Thru Week 16 (13 games):
Trubisky: 271/408, 66.4%, 3060 yds, 7.5 Y/A, 24 TD, 12 INT, 96.0 QB Rating

Bears Records:
1. QB Rating is the highest for a Bears QB with more than 10 games started
2. 24 TD's is 5th all-time for the franchise
3. 66.5% Comp % is the best of all-time in franchise history passing Jay Cutler (66.0%)
4. Needs 5 completions in Week 17 to move into 5th all-time for a single season

NFL QBR Leaders:

1. Mahomes - 81.4
2. Brees - 81.2
3. Roethlisberger - 73.5
4. Trubisky - 71.1
5. Rivers - 70.7

[AZ54]

10 hours ago, adam said:

Thru Week 16 (13 games):
Trubisky: 271/408, 66.4%, 3060 yds, 7.5 Y/A, 24 TD, 12 INT, 96.0 QB Rating

Bears Records:
1. QB Rating is the highest for a Bears QB with more than 10 games started
2. 24 TD's is 5th all-time for the franchise
3. 66.5% Comp % is the best of all-time in franchise history passing Jay Cutler (66.0%)
4. Needs 5 completions in Week 17 to move into 5th all-time for a single season

NFL QBR Leaders:

1. Mahomes - 81.4
2. Brees - 81.2
3. Roethlisberger - 73.5
4. Trubisky - 71.1
5. Rivers - 70.7

With 5:45 left in the game and the Bears protecting a 14-9 lead Trubisky took over the offense at the Chicago 14.  Against a SF defense that was playing well at home he led the Bears on a game clinching drive that would have killed the clock.  Until Robinson fumbled. 

That drive included forcing SF to burn their last timeouts by running the ball when everyone knew they'd run the ball with about 3:30 left in the game.  Prior to this Trubisky had scrambled for a first down and took a big late hit.   This led to the sideline fight  that resulted in the Bears having only two WRs in the game.  With offsetting penalties Trubisky was back to 3rd and 5 at the Chicago 31yd line.   He hit a quick pass for 4 yds.  Then Nagy, with confidence in his young QB, called for a QB sneak.   Remember when everyone said he couldn't handle snaps under center?   Trubisky runs for 2 yards netting another 1st down.  

Now with less than 4min left in the game the next two plays are runs designed to run down the clock or make SF burn timeouts.  SF chooses to use timeouts.   With a 3rd and 4 Trubisky hit AR12 for 6 yds and a first down.  Now with 3:14 left in the game, and SF with no timeouts remaining, the Bears need one more first down to win the game in victory formation.  Nagy appropriately calls two Jordan Howard run plays for 8 yds taking the clock to the 2min warning.  On the next play Trubisky hits AR12 for what should be the game winning first down and he then fumbles.  

Reporters subsequently change the narrative to the defense wins the game and, just like that, history erases what should have been one of Trubisky's best drives in his young career.  Certainly one of the best on the road in a critical game clinching situation.  

[adam]

14 hours ago, AZ54 said:

With 5:45 left in the game and the Bears protecting a 14-9 lead Trubisky took over the offense at the Chicago 14.  Against a SF defense that was playing well at home he led the Bears on a game clinching drive that would have killed the clock.  Until Robinson fumbled. 

That drive included forcing SF to burn their last timeouts by running the ball when everyone knew they'd run the ball with about 3:30 left in the game.  Prior to this Trubisky had scrambled for a first down and took a big late hit.   This led to the sideline fight  that resulted in the Bears having only two WRs in the game.  With offsetting penalties Trubisky was back to 3rd and 5 at the Chicago 31yd line.   He hit a quick pass for 4 yds.  Then Nagy, with confidence in his young QB, called for a QB sneak.   Remember when everyone said he couldn't handle snaps under center?   Trubisky runs for 2 yards netting another 1st down.  

Now with less than 4min left in the game the next two plays are runs designed to run down the clock or make SF burn timeouts.  SF chooses to use timeouts.   With a 3rd and 4 Trubisky hit AR12 for 6 yds and a first down.  Now with 3:14 left in the game, and SF with no timeouts remaining, the Bears need one more first down to win the game in victory formation.  Nagy appropriately calls two Jordan Howard run plays for 8 yds taking the clock to the 2min warning.  On the next play Trubisky hits AR12 for what should be the game winning first down and he then fumbles.  

Reporters subsequently change the narrative to the defense wins the game and, just like that, history erases what should have been one of Trubisky's best drives in his young career.  Certainly one of the best on the road in a critical game clinching situation.  

I agree, that was a huge drive. He also had another one earlier in the game that was over 7 minutes long.  The narrative stuff is beyond ridiculous. Now the national media is praising Jackson from Baltimore for doing less than Trubisky has done all year. Funny to see Trubisky have the best record (10-3) out of all the 2017 QBs (Mahomes is 11-4 and Watson is 10-5). KC is 0-2 in their last two games, Houston is 1-2 in their last 3, while the Bears went 3-0 against LAR, GB, and SF (who beat SEA).

[BearFan2000]

The media will never give Trubiskey his due respect.  They've been drooling over Mahomes since the early part of the year, and they can't help tripping over themselves to compliment him.  Jackson is the new shiny thing. When you break down his game if he's not getting yards with his feet he's a non factor, he's not going to beat you with his arm.  The media likes to get stuck on Trubiskey's bad games while ignoring his good games.  To them he will always be the guy we were dumb to trade up a spot to take. They have their narrative on Mitchel and are too lazy to actually study his season and see the improvement he's made.  It's low hanging fruit to say well the Bears are just a good defense who has to bail out the offense as usual.  

I really feel like next year with a full offseason in this offense Trubiskey and the offense can take a major step forward. With the D as strong as it is we could find ourselves in the conversation with the elite teams in the NFC.  That should get him some respect.  Overall though I sense that Mitch could care less what the media thinks.  

[adam]

1 hour ago, BearFan2000 said:

The media will never give Trubiskey his due respect.  They've been drooling over Mahomes since the early part of the year, and they can't help tripping over themselves to compliment him.  Jackson is the new shiny thing. When you break down his game if he's not getting yards with his feet he's a non factor, he's not going to beat you with his arm.  The media likes to get stuck on Trubiskey's bad games while ignoring his good games.  To them he will always be the guy we were dumb to trade up a spot to take. They have their narrative on Mitchel and are too lazy to actually study his season and see the improvement he's made.  It's low hanging fruit to say well the Bears are just a good defense who has to bail out the offense as usual.  

I really feel like next year with a full offseason in this offense Trubiskey and the offense can take a major step forward. With the D as strong as it is we could find ourselves in the conversation with the elite teams in the NFC.  That should get him some respect.  Overall though I sense that Mitch could care less what the media thinks.  

What are they not buying into? He has a 96.0 QB Rating (15th in NFL) and with his running, his QBR bumps him to #4 in the league. That is about right where he is as a player. What's wrong with that? He didn't get a year to sit and learn the system, and in some ways Loggains and Fox set Trubisky back some. 

[Stinger226]

I think the biggest thing we should be excited about is that Nagy is his teacher. He has some good traits but I trust his teachers.

[adam]

On 12/27/2018 at 5:13 AM, Stinger226 said:

I think the biggest thing we should be excited about is that Nagy is his teacher. He has some good traits but I trust his teachers.

Funny you should say that. I don't know if any of you are on Twitter, but if you are, you should follow Dan Orlovsky, yes, the ex-Lions QB. He breaks down Trubisky's games and loves him and Nagy. Here is his last one about in-game adjustments: 

 

 

[jason]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Funny you should say that. I don't know if any of you are on Twitter, but if you are, you should follow Dan Orlovsky, yes, the ex-Lions QB. He breaks down Trubisky's games and loves him and Nagy. Here is his last one about in-game adjustments: 

 

 

That's cool. I don't remember anyone reacting like that to anything Lovie ever did. Crowton maybe in his first year. Otherwise, this is uncharted territory for the Bears.

[BearFan PHX]

Trestman had some good route concepts, and got guys open with them his first year, but he had lots of other problems, and lost the team early. Nagy is the polar opposite.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

On 12/28/2018 at 3:47 AM, adam said:

Funny you should say that. I don't know if any of you are on Twitter, but if you are, you should follow Dan Orlovsky, yes, the ex-Lions QB. He breaks down Trubisky's games and loves him and Nagy. Here is his last one about in-game adjustments: 

 

 

I take everything Dan ‘run out of the back of the end zone’ Orlovsky says with a grain of salt.  But perhaps he’s a better analyst than QB.  And I think with Nagy being a former QB helps a lot with Trubisky.  Similar to Peterson in Philly and Frank Reich in Indy have been and are effective with their teams (funny they all are tied to Reid too).  

[adam]

Trubisky ends the season 289/434, 66.6% Comp%, 3223 yds, 24 TD, 12 INT, 95.4 QB Rating. He also ends the season with the 3rd highest QBR at 72.8, behind only Mahomes and Brees. 

[jason]

If you had told me at the end of the season Trubisky would have thrown for 3223, 24 TDs, and 12 INTs, I would have been pretty happy. But not ecstatic. Same as I am now. He was given the time, the weapons, an incredible defense, an offensive guru, and even the OL played significantly better. I expect more.

[adam]

8 minutes ago, jason said:

If you had told me at the end of the season Trubisky would have thrown for 3223, 24 TDs, and 12 INTs, I would have been pretty happy. But not ecstatic. Same as I am now. He was given the time, the weapons, an incredible defense, an offensive guru, and even the OL played significantly better. I expect more.

Yeah, we were all expecting some bigger numbers, but he did miss two games, played hurt in the Minnesota game and seemed to be sore/not 100% against the Rams. If you just project his averages for 16 games, he would end up with 3680 yards and 27 TDs, which would be much closer to the initial projections. If you take out the MIN and LAR games, his averages go way up to almost 4k yards and 30 TDs. I think that is where he will be with a full season next year. I know you can't cherrypick numbers, but he was hurt, missed games, and seemed way off against LAR. He had 5 INTs in those two games, and 7 in his other 12 games. 

Also, Burton and Cohen all ended with career highs in receptions, yards, and TDs, and Gabriel had his best year in terms of receptions and yards. The Robinson and Shaheen injuries might have had a slight impact on Trubisky's numbers. 

In his last 3 games, Trubisky completed 75.9% of his passes with 3 TDs and 0 INTs with a 3-0 record and 2 wins on the road. 

Ultimately, I think we over-rated the raw numbers a little bit. Did he need to reach 4000 passing yards and 30 TDs to have a successful season? What if he did that and we went 8-8?  Mahomes threw for over 5k yards and 50 TDs, yet KC ended up with the same record as CHI and Trubisky ended up with a better winning pct with an 11-3 record (.786) compared to Mahomes 12-4 (.750). 

[AZ54]

On 12/29/2018 at 1:12 PM, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I take everything Dan ‘run out of the back of the end zone’ Orlovsky says with a grain of salt.  But perhaps he’s a better analyst than QB.  And I think with Nagy being a former QB helps a lot with Trubisky.  Similar to Peterson in Philly and Frank Reich in Indy have been and are effective with their teams (funny they all are tied to Reid too).  

In the next year or two I think you will be seeing a lot more from Orlovsky.  He's already parlayed his little Youtube videos into a job at ESPN.  He hung around the NFL for 8 years and you don't do that as a backup QB unless you are working at your craft enough to run the offense in a pinch, or you're an elite athlete and can run like the wind.  At least he himself can make fun of that play where he was running outside the endzone.  

[AZ54]

7 hours ago, jason said:

If you had told me at the end of the season Trubisky would have thrown for 3223, 24 TDs, and 12 INTs, I would have been pretty happy. But not ecstatic. Same as I am now. He was given the time, the weapons, an incredible defense, an offensive guru, and even the OL played significantly better. I expect more.

Expect more as in the future, or expected more as in this year?  For the future I agree and I think that's fair to say.  For his first year in this offense, along with a lot of new WRs, I think he's grown tremendously since week 1.  

Nothing highlighted that more than his 75 yard drive that took up 9min late in the game after the Vikings closed within 3pts.  At one point on a third down the Vikings went with a heavy blitz.  Trubisky calmly made the hot read and threw it perfectly to Wims for a first down.  More importantly than the stats is that he setup that play with 3 backup WRs... on the road in that noisy stadium.   Amazingly nobody outside Chicago seems to give him credit for that drive.  If his name were Brady or Brees he'd have been cool and efficient dissecting the Vikings top 5 defense to put his team up by two scores late in the game.  But he's not, and he can't even get a mention on NFL Network.  I'm ok with that.  Stay out of the spotlight let everyone jump all over Big Dick Nic in Philly (apparently his new nickname) because he completed 85% of his passes against the Redskins.  Ignore the 85% Trubisky completed a week earlier.  

When I listened to his press conference after the game Trubisky is clearly seeing the field and understanding the offense far better than he ever has.