adam Posted November 13, 2018 Report Share Posted November 13, 2018 My Scouting Report: The Vikings are coming off a bye, so I looked back at their last 3 games to see anything that stood out. First, they went 2-1 beating the Lions 24-9, losing to the Saints 30-20, and beating the Jets 37-17. Diggs had a rib injury against the Saints, DNP against the Lions, then had the bye. In their most recent game against the Lions, Stafford went for 25/36 for 199, no TD's or INTs, but he was sacked 10 times. Protection is going to be huge. I would like to see some planned rollouts and screens to keep the pass rush honest. On offense, they got Dalvin Cook going with 10/89 yds with Thielen being the highest targeted receiver with 7. The offense looked a lot different without Diggs. Stopping Thielen is going to be key if Diggs is out. Thielen has more receiving yards (947) than our top two receivers, which means we can limit more production by focusing on one player than Minnesota can against us. We have 5 receivers with over 300 yards receiving and 3 runners with over 200 rushing yards. Minnesota have 3 and 1 respectively. In the two games before the DET game, against NO and NYJ, Dalvin Cook did not play, and Diggs did, totaling 26 targets and 18 receptions, more than Thielen at 17 targets and 16 receptions. So the Bears game might be the first with Cook and Diggs both playing since September. They are way more balanced with Cook in the lineup. Against DET, their Run/Pass split was almost 50/50. Without Cook in the two other games, they were 36/64 leaning heavily towards the pass. Cousins is having a great season, he is completing 71% of his passes and has a 17-5 TD/INT ratio with over 2600 yards. He has thrown 3 picks in his last 4 games, so we will need to capitalize on any mistakes. Cousins has been sacked 24 times (just under 3 per game) and has lost a fumble 6 times. So with his INTs, he averages over a turnover a game. Cousins seems very consistent regardless of down or distance except for 2nd and 8-10 yards where he has a 72.5 Rating, 2 INTs and 3 sacks in 40 attempts. 3rd down is where Cousins takes most of his sacks. He has been sacked 13 times in 95 attempts on 3rd down. We really need 4-5 sacks and two turnovers from him. They are 3-0 when they win the turnover battle, and 1-3-1 when they lost it. Turnovers will decide this game. I think our defense will be up to the task limiting the Vikings to 21 or less. When they score over 23, they are 4-1-1, and when they score 21 or less, they are 0-2. So 21 is the magic number for our defense (and Special Teams). Our losses have come when the opponents have scored 24, 31, and 38. When we allow 22 or less, we are undefeated. So again, 21 seems like the sweet spot. So their defense has allowed 27 pts or more 4 times, and went 0-3-1 in those games. So the magic number for our offense is 27. Put up 4 TD's, 3 TDs and 2 FG's (made) and we should be in good shape (easier said than done). Minnesota allowed 30 against the Saints, 29 against GB, and 39 against the Rams. Comparably to us, they held ARZ and NYJ both to 17, but somehow allowed 27 against Buffalo. We allowed 14 against ARZ and 10 against NYJ, while only 9 to Buffalo. So in common games, we look a lot better. The Vikings defense is very similar to ours, good against the run and pass, tied for the league lead in sacks (31) but only 8 INTs. So the pressure is going to be key. Hunter is 2nd in the league with 11.5 sacks, but no other player has more than 3.0, so stopping Hunter is going to be huge. Hunter also has 13 TFL's, with is next closest teammate at 5. Hunter is the key up front. Hendricks is their leading tackler at LB and Harrison Smith is 2nd at S. Knowing where Smith is will be key. He has 4 TFL, 2 sacks, 5 PD, and 3 INTs from the Safety position to go with 47 tackles. Odds makers have us as -2.5 favorites, which really means nothing since we are at home. I think this might slip to -3.0 by game time, especially with the forecasted weather. As long as we don't have any Special Teams blunders, I think we win, have a decent lead and then allow a late TD which makes the score look closer. Bears 27-21 This is probably the biggest regular season game we have experienced this late in the year, in 6 years, since 2012 (Lovie's last season). We were 7-1 that year and then the wheels fell off and we finished 3-5 but every game had meaning from November on. That season we were 7-1, then lost 2 straight, won one to go to 8-3, then proceeded to lose 3 straight to go to 8-6 before winning the last two games and finish 10-6. Week 17 was brutal, we beat Detroit in the early game behind 4x Olindo Mare FG's (lol) and then had to watch Minnesota's Blair Walsh hit a GW FG with no time left on the clock to win 37-34 against GB in an afternoon game, who they would play again the following week and lose to in the WC round. If GB wins in Week 17, they would've gotten a bye and we would've played in the WC game at SF. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted November 13, 2018 Report Share Posted November 13, 2018 This game is going to be a slugfest. The 12th man pulls the team through with blue collar toughness. Bears 24-21 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted November 13, 2018 Report Share Posted November 13, 2018 I scanned a couple Vikings forums last night. Since they've been on a bye there were plenty of comments before we played Detroit and they were pretty much of the usual variety talking about the upcoming easy game, Bears are over-rated, etc. The tone changed after we won Sunday because that is the same Detroit team (think active players) they faced and they didn't dominate them like we did. They still have trouble pass protecting and we must take advantage of that in a big way. Cousins will throw up a prayer now and then when he's under pressure. On offense we could use a boost from Shaheen. At a minimum I'd like to have Sims on the field again to help contain some of the edge rush and help the running game. I'm sure someone will say he's not very good blah blah but he's a better blocker inline than Burton, Braunecker, or Brown. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connorbear Posted November 13, 2018 Report Share Posted November 13, 2018 Activate Shaheen and go ahead and cut White. It's time to move on. Peace Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted November 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2018 52 minutes ago, Connorbear said: Activate Shaheen and go ahead and cut White. It's time to move on. Peace Yeah, I agree. What a waste of a pick. I can't believe they didn't try to move him already, they were probably waiting to see how Robinson looked coming off the injury. I think they know now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted November 13, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 13, 2018 Playoff Odds: LAR 100% vs KC NO 99.2% vs PHI CHI 86.8% vs MIN WAS 75.0% vs HOU CAR 76.5% @DET MIN 43.9% @CHI GB 42.1% @SEA KC 100% vs LAR NE 93.9% BYE PIT 92.5% @JAX HOU 79.9% @WAS LAC 92.4% vs DEN TEN 41.9% @IND BAL 32.8% vs CIN Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted November 13, 2018 Report Share Posted November 13, 2018 Wouldn’t it be ironic if this game came down to the kickers; where the Bears are currently in a bit of a slump with their kicker where Minnesota has notoriously struggled the last few years...with more than one kicker? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted November 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 14, 2018 5 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said: Wouldn’t it be ironic if this game came down to the kickers; where the Bears are currently in a bit of a slump with their kicker where Minnesota has notoriously struggled the last few years...with more than one kicker? No, that would suck. Let's get a blow-out win and put the rest of the league on notice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChileBear Posted November 15, 2018 Report Share Posted November 15, 2018 As of today, we are 3pt U-dogs to the Queens. Right now I'm looking forward to this! Finally, games that mean something for the Bears in Nov, and not draft order. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan2000 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 19 hours ago, ChileBear said: As of today, we are 3pt U-dogs to the Queens. Right now I'm looking forward to this! Finally, games that mean something for the Bears in Nov, and not draft order. Amen! I like that we are considered the underdogs on our own field against the Vikings who while they are good are not without their flaws and not an unbeatable opponent. I have a feeling this one is going to be hard fought. This game means so much to both of these teams. For the Vikings they need thew into close the gap in the standings, we need the win to increase the gap. There's so much riding on this game that I expect both teams come out fighting. They are the more rested team but they also have a history of coming out flat after a bye. I don't think that will be the case this time. They will be prepared and gunning for us. So we need to bring our A game. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 I think we win something like 24-20 with a late defensive interception to cap the win. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted November 16, 2018 Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 https://www.nbcchicago.com/blogs/grizzly-detail/chicago-bears-minnesota-vikings-anthony-barr-andrew-sendejo-500701671.html No word on Shaheen. Team is keeping this one very close to the vest. Sims is ruled out for sure so we really need Shaheen this week. I expect him to come off IR on Sat. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted November 16, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 16, 2018 On 11/15/2018 at 12:40 PM, ChileBear said: As of today, we are 3pt U-dogs to the Queens. Right now I'm looking forward to this! Finally, games that mean something for the Bears in Nov, and not draft order. We are still either -2.5 or -3.0, which means we are favored. We are not underdogs anywhere that I can see. https://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/odds Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted November 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2018 Some additional numbers: DVOA: Offense/Defense/Special Teams CHI 7.9/-20.1/-5.1 MIN -2.8/-8.4/-2.5 Looking at DVOA, we have a more efficient offense and an absolute dominant defense compared to Minnesota. They have a slight edge on Special Teams (shocker). Looking at Minnesota's games, they had a terrible outing against the Rams, allowing over 550 total yards and 38 points. To ensure that was not an outlier, I removed that game and their best game, and did the same for the Bears to see how the numbers compared: CHI 371 Total Yards (OFF) 29.3 pts/g 304 Total Yards (DEF) 18.3 pts/g MIN 372 Total Yards (OFF) 25.6 pts/g 305 Total Yards (DEF) 22.4 pts/g So the offenses and defenses are literally within a yard of each other. Pretty crazy, but the Bears average about 4 pts more on offense and allow 4 less on defense for an 8 pt differential. If you play our offensive average vs their defensive average, you get 26 pts for us and 22 for them. So a score of: CHI 26 MIN 22 on a neutral field. If you give us +3 for home field or (+2 for us and -1 for them), you get Bears 28-21. So we will see how this goes, I had 27-21 in my first look, so it was interesting to see the numbers come up so close. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted November 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2018 My last one, under Zimmer, the Vikes are 2-2 coming out of the bye, but 1-2 on the road after a bye. Also, they outscore their opponent 23-7 in the first quarter and get outscored 30-16 in the 4th in those 4 games. So it is going to be crucial that the Bears get an early lead and neutralize this advantage. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted November 17, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 17, 2018 I am really hoping for a blow out victory where we can rest some starters in the 4th quarter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChileBear Posted November 17, 2018 Report Share Posted November 17, 2018 21 hours ago, adam said: We are still either -2.5 or -3.0, which means we are favored. We are not underdogs anywhere that I can see. https://www.oddsshark.com/nfl/odds DOH!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted November 18, 2018 Report Share Posted November 18, 2018 I would love to watch a blowout but that wont happen in this game, a close game is in the forecast. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted November 18, 2018 Report Share Posted November 18, 2018 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted November 18, 2018 Report Share Posted November 18, 2018 A few words from Danny Trevathan on tonight’s game: https://www.chicagobears.com/video/obsession-meets-opportunity Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted November 19, 2018 Author Report Share Posted November 19, 2018 Bears force a 3 and out on Vikings first drive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted November 19, 2018 Report Share Posted November 19, 2018 Yay Parkey...good for 3!!! followed by a KO out of bounds...boo Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted November 19, 2018 Report Share Posted November 19, 2018 Good to see Howard getting some carries. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Posted November 19, 2018 Report Share Posted November 19, 2018 Def. like I have not seen in decades for Bears. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted November 19, 2018 Report Share Posted November 19, 2018 4 minutes ago, Bill said: Def. like I have not seen in decades for Bears. Yes!!! I absolutely LOVE to see the defense dominate. Outside of that errant throw into triple coverage, Trubisky has been looking pretty solid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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