Playoff Scenarios

[adam]

With 3 weeks left, we are in a great spot. NO and LAR both look vulnerable. MIN looked horrible as well. 

1. NO 11-2 (@CAR, vs PIT, vs CAR)
2. LAR 11-2 (vs PHI, @ARZ, vs SF)
3. CHI 9-4 (vs GB, @SF, @MIN)
4. DAL 8-5 (@IND, vs TB, @NYG)
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5. SEA 8-5 (@SF, vs KC, vs ARZ)
6. MIN 6-6-1 (vs MIA, @DET, vs CHI)
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7. CAR 6-7 (vs NO, vs ATL, @NO)
8. PHI 6-7 (@LAR, vs HOU, @WAS)
9. WAS 6-7 (@JAX, @TEN, vs PHI)
10. GB 5-7-1 (@CHI, @NYJ, vs DET)

Scenarios:

1. 1-win, 10-6, Division winner, 4th seed, more than likely get SEA at home WC weekend. Dallas would have the tiebreaker over us if we both finish at 10-6.
2. 2-wins, 11-5, Division winner, 3rd seed, would play the 6th seed (MIN/CAR/PHI/WAS) at home, then 2nd seed (LAR) in LA
3. 3-wins, 12-4, Division winner, a chance at the 2nd seed if either NO or LAR lose 2 of 3. If we tie LAR or NO at 12-4, we would win the Conference tie breaker. 
4. 0 wins, 9-7, Division winner if Minnesota loses at least one game. If MIN wins 3 and we lose 3, MIN wins Division, we slide to WC#2 (w/ at least one loss each from CAR, PHI, and WAS who could do no better than 8-8. WAS and PHI play each other, so there is one loss, and I can't see CAR beating NO twice. So even without another win, it looks like we would still make the playoffs. WC#2 would play in Dallas in this scenario.

So right now we have a slim chance at a bye, will more than likely play at home WC. the #3 seed is the most probable.

An interesting dilemma may present itself in Week 17. We might be locked into the 3 or 4 seed and could use Week 17 to give ourselves a bye. In doing so, we could allow MIN into the playoffs (if they win out).

[Connorbear]

If the Packers can beat us, they have a legitimate chance of making the playoffs. Three of the teams in front of them could/should lose at least 1 game.  Their only real competition in the Vikings who would need to lose 2 since they have tie-breaker in head-to-head competition. 

My point - Eliminate the Packers from the playoffs this weekend. This is a game we should win. 

Peace

 

[BearFan2000]

Thanks for taking the time to hash all those scenarios.  The NFL is where weird things can happen and with 3 weeks to go who knows how it all shakes out.  We do have a slim shot at a 1 or 2 seed and for that to happen either NO or LA needs to stumble.  Both have favorable schedules the rest of the way.  Possibly NO's is harder as they face Carolina twice, Pit is out of playoff contention or at least on the bubble.  Carolina is fighting for a wild card. and needs  to win out if possible.  Rams have Philly who like Carolina is playing for something.  AZ and SF have nothing but draft position to play for.  If one of them stumbles I feel like it'd be NO but that isn't a given.  

All we can control is guaranteeing us at least a #3 seed meaning we need to go 2-1 or 3-0.  Beat GB, and lock up the division while effectively ending any hopes the cheeseheads have at playoffs.  SF has nothing to play for other than draft position, and By week 17 the vikings could be out of contention as well.  I'd like to see us win out and finish 11-5 and let the seeding fall the way it will.  Worst case we host a home wild card game and likely play on the road for the division round game.  If we win the first game and lose or even make it to the conference championship this season will have been a huge step in the right direction.  I'm proud of my Bears they have really got things turned around and have a firm stepping stone for next season and beyond.

[Chitownhustla]

If we beat the Packers they are out, if the Vikes win the next two we could eliminate them as well, correct? How sweeet would that be if we eliminated both of these two freak heads. 

 

 

How does NO and LA look vulnerable????? 

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, Connorbear said:

Eliminate the Packers from the playoffs this weekend.

YES

[adam]

7 hours ago, Chitownhustla said:

If we beat the Packers they are out, if the Vikes win the next two we could eliminate them as well, correct? How sweeet would that be if we eliminated both of these two freak heads. 

 

 

How does NO and LA look vulnerable????? 

If the Vikings win 2 of 3, they are 8-7-1, which would require any of the teams below them to go 9-7 to beat them (or win out). That seems really unlikely based on how they have played recently and their schedules. The best way for us to have a chance at knocking the Vikings out is if they go 1-1 before playing us and we beat them to finish 7-8-1, and one of CAR, PHI/WAS go 2-1 to finish 8-8 and face us in the 1st round.

You ask how NO and LAR look vulnerable? Just watch the DET/LAR game and the NO games against TB and DAL. The Saints are 1-1 in their last two games against TB and DAL, and their total offense the last 3 games has been 298 yds, 176 yds, 312 yds with Brees not topping 201 passing yards in the last 3 games (w/ an INT in every game). They don't look like the same team and the numbers say the same. If you group games together, they are playing their worst football right now, which doesn't normally bode well for the remainder of the season/postseason. 

For the Rams, it's very similar. They had a bye in Week 12 and look like a totally different team the last two weeks against DET and us. They beat DET, but Goff looked like crap in both games. The Rams had their worst two games the last two weeks and are trending in the wrong direction. Now they play Philly, who needs a win to stay in the playoff hunt. After that game, it gets easier for them with a game in Arizona and then against SF. Both of those are Division games, so those are always tough.

[BearFan2000]

After yesterday's slate of game the playoff picture becomes more interesting.

Some key matchups

Rams lost and dropped to 11-3 (now only 1 game up on us.

We won and moved up to 10-4

Cowboys lost and dropped to 8-6

Philly with a win at 7-7 only a game back of the Cowboys.

Minnesota won moving them to 7-6-1

Seattle lost and dropped to 8-6

Saints and Panthers play tonight.  A saint's win all but cements them as the #1 seed while Carolina would drop to 6-8 and essentially knocks them out.  

 

Should the Rams lose one more and we win out we could end up the #2 seed we hold the tie breaker between us and LA.  It's not likely given the remaining schedules but there is a slim chance.  I wouldn't have picked the Eagles over the Rams yesterday either.  

As it stands now

#1 seed Saints (Tonight @ CAR, vs Pit,  vs CAR)  Likely finish 13-3.  I feel they could lose one of the Carolina games or Pitt.

#2 seed Rams (@ AZ, vs SF)  likely finish 13-3.  Both AZ and SF are trash.  If the Rams can't beat both them they don't deserve a first round bye.

#3 seed Bears (@ SF, @ Min) likely finish 12-4.  I believe we can win out.  Minn is likely playing for a playoff spot in week 17 they will give us all we can handle.  

#4 seed Dallas (vs TB, @ NYG) likely finish 10-6 they have a favorable bounce back game after getting shutout by the Colts.  They should beat the Giants.

#5 seed Seahawks (vs KC, vs AZ) likely finish 9-7 I don't think they get past the Chiefs but handle the Cards easily.  

#6 seed Vikings (@ Det, vs CHI)  likely finish 8-7-1  They should beat Detroit but it will be a tough one.  I see them losing to us but again a close hard fought one)

in the hunt

Philly (vs Hou, @ Wash) likely finish 8-8 they will have a tough time against Houston, but I think they take care of the Skins)

Washington (@ Ten, vs Wash) likely finish 7-9  I don't see them winning either of their remaining games.  If they were to win one my guess would be Philly but won't matter.

I'll be rooting hard for Detroit next week.  A loss and they move to 7-7-1 and are going to need help get the #6 seed.  I can see Philly pushing them for that last spot.  We could essentially have a shot at knocking the Vikings out of the playoffs in week 17.  How awesome would it be to have eliminated both the Packers and the Vikings from the playoffs in a 3 week span?

Should be an interesting next two weeks.

 

 

[adam]

1. NO 12-2 (vs PIT, vs CAR) - goes 1-1 finishes 13-3.
2. LAR 11-3 (@ARZ, vs SF) - goes 2-0, finishes 13-3
3. CHI 10-4 (@SF, @MIN) - goes 2-0, finishes 12-4.
4. DAL 8-6 (vs TB, @NYG) - goes 2-0, finishes 10-6.
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5. SEA 8-6 (vs KC, vs ARZ) - goes 1-1, finishes 9-7.
6. MIN 7-6-1 (@DET, vs CHI) - goes 1-1, finishes 8-7-1.
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7. PHI 7-7 (vs HOU, @WAS) - goes 1-1, finishes 8-8.
8. WAS 7-7 (@TEN, vs PHI) - goes 0-2, finishes 7-9.

#1 Seed – win out and LAR finishes 1-1 and NO finishes 0-2.
#2 Seed – win out and either LAR finishes 1-1 or NO finishes 1-2.
#3 Seed – win 1 of 2 or DAL with 1 loss or tie.
#4 Seed – lose 2 and DAL wins 2
 

We seem to control who we play if we end up with the #3 seed. If we beat MIN in Week 17, they either end up missing playoffs with one of the 7-7 teams winning their last two or finish as the 6 Seed (where I am projecting them). If we rest players and MIN wins in Week 17, they would slide to the #5 seed and we would more than likely play Seattle as the #6. 

 

[BearFan2000]

I’d say as long as we have even a slim shot at the #1 or #2 seed, then we play to win. We rest guys only if they are dinged and they can use the time to get heathy. If we’re up big late in games then pull guys. All we need is to win out and if LA stumbles at all we move up to #2. 

[adam]

1. NO 13-2 (vs CAR) 
2. LAR 12-3 (vs SF) 
3. CHI 11-4 (@MIN) 
4. DAL 9-6 (@NYG)
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5. SEA 9-6 (vs ARZ)
6. MIN 8-6-1 (vs CHI)
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7. PHI 8-7 (@WAS)

Seeding Scenarios (4):
1. First Round Bye and #2 Seed – CHI win and LAR loss
2. #3 Seed and plays MIN: SEA win and CHI loss or CHI win and PHI loss
3. #3 Seed and plays PHI: CHI and PHI win
4. #3 Seed and plays SEA: SEA loss and CHI loss

So if we win against MIN, we can get the #2 seed or play PHI or MIN. If we lose to MIN, we could play SEA or MIN. The only way we play SEA is if they lose to ARZ, which is very unlikely. So it ultimately comes down to the CHI vs MIN game and the PHI vs WAS game. Assuming PHI wins like SEA, then with a win we play PHI, with a loss we would re-play MIN at home WC weekend. Interesting scenarios. I would rather win to have a shot at the #2 seed and bring on PHI. That would give us a chance to win the Division at home against GB (while knocking them out of the playoffs), knocking MIN out of the playoffs in MIN, then knocking off the World Champs in Soldier Field before heading to play LAR in LA. Our playoff path would be at home against PHI, at LAR, then at NO. That would be an impressive run.

[eback]

You play who you play but who would you rather face round 1? 

Minny or Philadelphia? 

[adam]

1 hour ago, eback said:

You play who you play but who would you rather face round 1? 

Minny or Philadelphia? 

Tough call, Cousins completely chokes in Prime Time games, but Minnesota is probably the better team on paper. Philly looks like they are playing with confidence with Foles at QB and with the return of Sproles. It is really tough to beat teams in back to back weeks, so I would lean towards playing Philadelphia.

Also, it wouldn't even feel like an achievement to beat a team in Week 17 just to get to play them again in the WC round. At least a game against Philly would feel like a step forward. Also, it would suck to lose to Minnesota, at home, in the playoffs (regardless of the outcome of Week 17). That would really be a bad ending to a truly unexpectedly great season. 

This is my favorite narrative: Beat GB, clinch Division and knock them out of the playoffs, then beat Minnesota in Week 17, knocking them out of the playoffs. Then beat the World Champs in the WC round, followed by the Rams and Saints, before beating the Chiefs in the Super Bowl. Talk about all demons exorcized in one year. That would be insane.

[Mongo3451]

One more demon would be to whack Alshon who scorned us to go to Philly...?

[bschmaranz]

23 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

One more demon would be to whack Alshon who scorned us to go to Philly...?

Scorned us?  We didn't offer him a deal.  He wound up taking a shitty 1 year deal in Philly.

[Mongo3451]

We offered a multi year deal.  He turned it down for the one year deal.

[Stinger226]

It is hard to say who is the best team to play. I would have to say, Philly is probably the worst of the 3 teams. Foles is on a roll, but he hasnt been playing good defenses.They running game isnt good, the biggest threat is their TE. I would say Minny is getting better and SEA has a good running game and scrambling QB. 

Give me PHILLY

[BearFan2000]

22 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

It is hard to say who is the best team to play. I would have to say, Philly is probably the worst of the 3 teams. Foles is on a roll, but he hasnt been playing good defenses.They running game isnt good, the biggest threat is their TE. I would say Minny is getting better and SEA has a good running game and scrambling QB. 

Give me PHILLY

My initial preference would be to play Philly as it would be tough to play the same team twice in a row (third time in a season).  Ertz could be a challenge especially if we don't have Jackson back.  But then so could Diggs, Thelen, and to some extent Rudolf.   I would still prefer Philly.  How far we get in the playoffs could hinge on Eddie Jackson's health.  He's my x factor.  

[adam]

Just look at the Passing Defenses, we don't want to play Minnesota again and Philly has a horrible pass defense (worst in the league allowing 280+ yards a game). I am taking Philly.