I still don't want a RB in the draft

[jason]

Tarik Cohen got 99 carries last year to Jordan Howard's 250. The split figures to change a bit since Cohen is incumbent and Howard is gone. So let's call it 125/225.

Mike Davis got 112 carries in a 3-way rotation in Seattle last year. There's nearly no doubt at all he can carry more of the load. Additionally, for the coaching staff to dump Howard and pick up Davis, they had to feel pretty comfortable about his fit in the system and his ability to replace Howard for the most part. If there are roughly 225 carries to spread around, then Davis figures to get north of 150 of those carries. I'd guess 175-ish.

Which leaves 50 carries or so. That doesn't sound like a big need. Furthermore, it sounds like a great way to spread the love, depending on game situation, to backups like Nall, or Mizelle, or whoever.

Say no to drafting a RB this year, unless it's a massive upside pick like Bryce Love in the 5th or something like that.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

50 carrie's would be perfect to work in Bryce Love or the kid from Oklahoma who also got injured late, Rodney Anderson.  If we can get one in the 4th or 5th, meaning they might have to make a trade, I would be happy. Getting a every down rb back that fits this scheme would make this offense more deceptive imo.

[Mongo3451]

They'll be looking for a100+ carry guy.  It's dangerous to have Cohen carry more load, as it can affect his burst.  Nobody wants that.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

They'll be looking for a100+ carry guy.  It's dangerous to have Cohen carry more load, as it can affect his burst.  Nobody wants that.

A “100+ carry guy”?  Where would they find a durable guy like that?  

Sorry im feeling a bit cynical. 

In all seriousness though I think Nall might fit the durability role.  He’s younger and has done well in the health department so far.  

[AZ54]

I don't see Cohen picking up 25% more carries without it affecting him.  Plus he's still indecisive as a RB and makes bad decisions too often instead of taking what's there.  He's tough but he's just not that big and gets rag dolled too often.  I like what Nagy did keeping him outside the numbers more often than not so he has an option with the sideline to escape the big hits.  The upside is his ability to make big plays so you want his versatility back there especially later in the game.  I just think if we give him too much work load he'll lose some of that edge and won't be as explosive when the defense is tired late in the games, and really late in the season.  We also want to keep him fresh for punt returns.  I believe that's why we suffered through the few MIzzell carries per game last year when those carries could have easily gone to Howard.   

I think Nall is part of the plan or Pace wouldn't have cut Howard loose pre-draft.  It's just not his style to have a glaring need.  

[jason]

2 hours ago, AZ54 said:

I don't see Cohen picking up 25% more carries without it affecting him.  Plus he's still indecisive as a RB and makes bad decisions too often instead of taking what's there.  He's tough but he's just not that big and gets rag dolled too often.  I like what Nagy did keeping him outside the numbers more often than not so he has an option with the sideline to escape the big hits.  The upside is his ability to make big plays so you want his versatility back there especially later in the game.  I just think if we give him too much work load he'll lose some of that edge and won't be as explosive when the defense is tired late in the games, and really late in the season.  We also want to keep him fresh for punt returns.  I believe that's why we suffered through the few MIzzell carries per game last year when those carries could have easily gone to Howard.   

I think Nall is part of the plan or Pace wouldn't have cut Howard loose pre-draft.  It's just not his style to have a glaring need.  

You realize 25 more carries would be less than 2 more carries a game, right? That’s so minimal it’s negligible. It’s absurdly minuscule over the course of the season. Of course he could handle 25 more carries in a season.

Will literally less than 2 more carries a game really burn him out? It seems highly improbable to me.

The decisiveness is the only valid point.

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, jason said:

You realize 25 more carries would be less than 2 more carries a game, right? That’s so minimal it’s negligible. It’s absurdly minuscule over the course of the season. Of course he could handle 25 more carries in a season.

Will literally less than 2 more carries a game really burn him out? It seems highly improbable to me.

The decisiveness is the only valid point.

I do.  Nagy could have given those snaps to Cohen last year if he felt he could handle it and instead he gave them to Smokeless Mizzell.  Surprisingly Nagy even gave 1 snap to Mizzell in the playoff game for -1 yards.   All that just makes me think he used Cohen as much as he wanted to last year and stuck to his plan even in a critical situation.   If he wouldn't change then I don't think Nagy will next season.  

I don't view Davis as the replacement for Howard either.  I just don't think he can handle the workload.  He may however be the piece that let's Pace/Nagy take two off-seasons to find their new starting RB.   That assumes Nall can fill in for Howards snaps but even then I think we still draft one player at RB.  It just might not be as critical a need as many (most really) think it is.  That could let them feel good enough to take a chance on a player like Love or Anderson on day 3.  

[Mongo3451]

9 hours ago, AZ54 said:

I do.  Nagy could have given those snaps to Cohen last year if he felt he could handle it and instead he gave them to Smokeless Mizzell.  Surprisingly Nagy even gave 1 snap to Mizzell in the playoff game for -1 yards.   All that just makes me think he used Cohen as much as he wanted to last year and stuck to his plan even in a critical situation.   If he wouldn't change then I don't think Nagy will next season.  

I don't view Davis as the replacement for Howard either.  I just don't think he can handle the workload.  He may however be the piece that let's Pace/Nagy take two off-seasons to find their new starting RB.   That assumes Nall can fill in for Howards snaps but even then I think we still draft one player at RB.  It just might not be as critical a need as many (most really) think it is.  That could let them feel good enough to take a chance on a player like Love or Anderson on day 3.  

To expound upon that, Nagy may have given Cohen and Mizzell more carries than he wanted to, simply because he didn't feel good about his options with Howard.  That could create an even larger desire for a fresh new back.

[jason]

Fair enough, guys. I’m just not of the belief that the front office would get rid of a very good player if they didn’t feel like they had a guaranteed plan to replace him already established.

That leaves the RBs on roster, or something much scarier: a rookie they love already and will unnecessarily reach to get in a draft with minimal picks.

[AZ54]

8 hours ago, jason said:

Fair enough, guys. I’m just not of the belief that the front office would get rid of a very good player if they didn’t feel like they had a guaranteed plan to replace him already established.

That leaves the RBs on roster, or something much scarier: a rookie they love already and will unnecessarily reach to get in a draft with minimal picks.

Plan A I'm good with...essentially that's Nall.   Plan B I don't like at all.  We don't need to draft a RB a round earlier than they are graded.  We have enough other needs to fill that we should be grabbing the best player at any number of positions.

There is a plan C where they feel there are enough good prospects that we can let the draft fall to us and take the best of the remaining options at the appropriate draft slot.   I don't think we get out the 5th Rd without having a new RB.  

[Stinger226]

The bears are going to draft a RB. I personally think they would be fine with Davis,  Cohen,  Nall and Patterson getting 40 carries  but I think Nagy wants a guy he thinks fits his offense

3 rd Hooker/ S

4th Miller/OLB

5th Armstead / RB 

They have met with Singletary 4 times and Armstead 3. I think Singletary will be gone but Armstead  is still there. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

On 4/14/2019 at 7:42 AM, jason said:

Fair enough, guys. I’m just not of the belief that the front office would get rid of a very good player if they didn’t feel like they had a guaranteed plan to replace him already established.

That leaves the RBs on roster, or something much scarier: a rookie they love already and will unnecessarily reach to get in a draft with minimal picks.

This x2

And I like the idea of adding a ‘Singletary’ back to the team if only for nostalgic reasons.  

[adam]

I am thinking Patterson will get some carries as well (2-3 a game). So that's 30-50 carries there. I really think Davis can handle more than he had in Seattle, definitely 150-175. 

After his lack of use during Philly, it will be interesting to see how Nagy uses Cohen this year. 

My gut says we still draft a RB, but it won't be with the 3rd round pick. I am thinking that the 5th rounder would be a good spot if it is the right value. However, if a high rated RB falls into the 3rd, its hard to see us passing on him. 

Hopefully Pace just goes BPA and takes the best talent on the board. 

[Mongo3451]

34 minutes ago, adam said:

I am thinking Patterson will get some carries as well (2-3 a game). So that's 30-50 carries there. I really think Davis can handle more than he had in Seattle, definitely 150-175. 

After his lack of use during Philly, it will be interesting to see how Nagy uses Cohen this year. 

My gut says we still draft a RB, but it won't be with the 3rd round pick. I am thinking that the 5th rounder would be a good spot if it is the right value. However, if a high rated RB falls into the 3rd, its hard to see us passing on him. 

Hopefully Pace just goes BPA and takes the best talent on the board. 

My guess is that he has at least 5-8 backs he would jump on in various rounds.

 

[Stinger226]

If he goes BPA,  it won't be a RB in the 3rd. I think Jacobs,  Sanders,  and Mongomery are off the board in the second round.  Williams and Henderson go ahead of us in the third so the value won't be there with our pick. I think it will be Singletary in the 4th or Armstead in the 5th.

[BearFan PHX]

if a player falls at a position we dont necessarily need, but who is tremendously undervalued, we might just pick him and surprise everyone.

we might even trade up for such a player. I think we are legitimately looking for value now.

[AZ54]

2 minutes ago, BearFan NYC said:

if a player falls at a position we dont necessarily need, but who is tremendously undervalued, we might just pick him and surprise everyone.

we might even trade up for such a player. I think we are legitimately looking for value now.

I absolutely think this is the case in Rd 3.   It's really the only way to get an impact player out of this draft except we pick so late in Rd 3 it's going to be tough to find that gem.   It will not surprise me at all to see Pace trade up higher into Rd 3, maybe 5 to 10 spots, to grab someone who is falling.   He'd then trade back later in the draft to recoup his pick.   

This is a rare year because we don't have to extensively evaluate the top end prospects.   There will be scouting reports on them of course because you always want that for FA decisions down the road.  That means more time can be spent on players outside the top 100 even all the way down to UDFAs.  I expect Pace had his organization put in more time than usual on small school prospects.  When you start thinking about the 3rd Rd what do they think of WR Andy Isabella?   His long speed is legit and he runs routes all over the field.   

   

[BearFan PHX]

I agree with what youve said about round 3.

I think they scout ALL the players at ALL positions every year so that they understand weird trade scenarios that may arise, and so they have a book on the player when they become free agents in a few years.

This is a very interesting draft, and we might well get some surprises.

 

[Stinger226]

RB distribution;

Davis - 175

Rookie-100

Cohen -75

Patterson-40

Nall-50 

Trubisky-40

Last year we had 467 rushing plays. I think we have a uptick in rushing (480) with the offense being more efficient.

[jason]

21 hours ago, AZ54 said:

I absolutely think this is the case in Rd 3.   It's really the only way to get an impact player out of this draft except we pick so late in Rd 3 it's going to be tough to find that gem.   It will not surprise me at all to see Pace trade up higher into Rd 3, maybe 5 to 10 spots, to grab someone who is falling.   He'd then trade back later in the draft to recoup his pick.   

This is a rare year because we don't have to extensively evaluate the top end prospects.   There will be scouting reports on them of course because you always want that for FA decisions down the road.  That means more time can be spent on players outside the top 100 even all the way down to UDFAs.  I expect Pace had his organization put in more time than usual on small school prospects.  When you start thinking about the 3rd Rd what do they think of WR Andy Isabella?   His long speed is legit and he runs routes all over the field.   

   

Given the propensity to reach on small school projects, that should scare everyone a good bit.

[jason]

6 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

RB distribution;

Davis - 175

Rookie-100

Cohen -75

Patterson-40

Nall-50 

Trubisky-40

Last year we had 467 rushing plays. I think we have a uptick in rushing (480) with the offense being more efficient.

Why in the world would any coach give Cohen LESS carries than he had last year?

[Stinger226]

Because of his health. More as a WR maybe in the slot or catches as a RB.

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, jason said:

Given the propensity to reach on small school projects, that should scare everyone a good bit.

There is that.  

[Stinger226]

With Miller in the slot, I see no way we draft a slot WR in any round.