PFF hates Trubisky

[adam]

 

 

https://www.profootballfocus.com/news/pro-what-the-advanced-analytics-say-about-mitchell-trubiksy

I really don't get all the national hate for Trubisky. He is a nice kid, says the right things, isn't overly cocky or arrogant, and has played pretty damn well considering the circumstances (Fox/Loggains era). I find it funny when people compare him to Rodgers, Stafford, Cousins, etc. All vets. The funny thing is to check out their stats before they were all 25.

Before his 25-yr old season, Cousins played in 3 games, started 1 game, and had a total of 4 TDs, 3 INTs and 466 passing yards. In his first two years, he was 1-3, with 8 TD, 10 INT and 1320 passing yards. 

Stafford played a lot more before 25, but did basically nothing his first two years in the league, starting 13 games (3-10 record) with 19 TDs and 21 INTs with 2802 yds passing. 

Rodgers did not play his first 3 years, which is basically impossible nowadays, and did not have any stats before his 25-yr old season.

Trubisky has now started 26 games in his first two years, more than what Cousins, Stafford, and Rodgers did combined in their first two years. 

 

Trubisky's first two years: 31 TDs, 19 INT, 5416 yds, 15-11 record, 1x Pro-Bowl

Rodgers/Stafford/Cousins first two-year totals (6 cumulative years): 27 TDs, 31 INT, 4122 yds, 4-13 record.

Then I look at Goff, he went 0-7 in 2016 with only 1089 yds passing (5 TD to 7 INT), then improved to 11-4 with 3804 yds (28 TD and 7 INT) in 2018 before posting career highs with 4688 yds, 32 TDs and 12 INTs last year. The crazy thing for me is that I didn't think Goff looked that good. Yet he was always putting up big numbers with Kupp and Gurley having big games. 

It is hard for me to not see Trubisky on that same trajectory. He had 2193 yards in his rookie year, 3223 yds last year, so it would not surprise me if he had over 4500 yds this year. His TDs went from 7 to 24, so they should go into the mid 30's this year. INTs went from 7 to 12, so they will probably be in the high teens this year. If he does that, it will be hard for them to argue with his success.

 

Btw, PFF's grades are way too random. They should just say better than average, average, or below average. Even then, Trubisky would be below average in their eyes. Very weird.

[BearFan PHX]

PFF always has ridiculous claims. They have their own metrics, and they obviously dont work.

[madlithuanian]

Everyone hates Tru, but Chicago

[adam]

I still don't get it. Goff had similar numbers but never took the abuse that Trubisky has taken and Goff was the #1 pick. Watson could do no wrong, Mayfield is apparently a perennial Pro-Bowler, and Wentz is the 2nd coming. The only take that is fair is that the Bears would have been better off taking Mahomes at #3. That's it. That is a fair statement, but you could also say every team had the ability to draft Mahomes (either by picking or trading up) and only KC thought it was a good value at that time.

Why can't multiple players be good? 

I agree that PFF is not very accurate for the most part, so I quite don't understand the support they get, both in the media and financially. How could you possibly know if an incomplete pass was the QB's or WR's fault if you don't know the play call, route, timing, etc? That baffles me to this day. 

[BearFan PHX]

Honestly it all goes back to the idea that Pace screwed up by trading from 3 to 2 to get him. I dont think he did, but that was a media narrative. Add that to the amazing year Mahomes had, and you get the "story" that Trubisky is a big mistake. Which is a nice story, but bears (ha bears) no resemblance to reality.

 

[Stinger226]

Some of PFF has some merit, but if you look at there over all rankings according to like pro bowl players, there is something lacking. It is just a tool, part of an overall look at a player. Remember Amos had their highest ratings as a S 2 years ago and he was good but not among the elite at their position. It is just off of some of their metrics.

[adam]

6 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Some of PFF has some merit, but if you look at there over all rankings according to like pro bowl players, there is something lacking. It is just a tool, part of an overall look at a player. Remember Amos had their highest ratings as a S 2 years ago and he was good but not among the elite at their position. It is just off of some of their metrics.

So if traditional metrics work, then why even have some subjective secret formula that re-orders players based on something different? 

Amos is a great example. How would they know his assignment pre-snap and then determine if he did his job. He could've lined up in the wrong spot, didn't take a guy that was released, etc. Way too many variables to grade plays against what they think was supposed to happen. 

Check out this knucklehead (Sam Monson?) defending his position that ARob was basically the only reason Trubisky looked good (after saying Trubisky was worse in 2018 than in 2017). Then when he was called on the BS, he literally contradicted himself again:

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

21 hours ago, BearFan NYC said:

Honestly it all goes back to the idea that Pace screwed up by trading from 3 to 2 to get him. I dont think he did, but that was a media narrative. Add that to the amazing year Mahomes had, and you get the "story" that Trubisky is a big mistake.

 

Devils advocate:  yes I know, it’s the unpopular view amongst Bears fans but I still am not convinced making the jump from three to two has yet proven itself out.  Yes he made a pro bowl (as an alternate), yes he improved his stats from year one to year two and yes he has shown his ability to run as an alternative to passing.  But he still looks shaky on intermediate and long throws (he was intercepted three(?) times in last year’s playoff game), and year one was with Fox (as many remind us as almost an excuse) where two was with the more affable and cunning Nagy and his running will only get him so far.  

The eye test I apply tells me that he’s still got ALOT to prove.  You say Wentz was this and shoulda been that; he’s been injured most of the last two years.  Why?  Mostly because or his running.  Watson has out-produced overall compared to Trub right?  But he too was hobbled by injury.  But what’s more he didn’t have the same defense that Trub did to help recover from when he made mistakes.  

I still see Trubiksy as a version of Mariota or even Andrew Luck.  High draft picks but little yield (when talking ratios).  Mariota could be something great too but hasn’t really had a chance to flourish due to not having a lot of great players (on offense and defense) around him.  Luck, although hampered by injury for the last two previous years, came on strong last year after getting better physically and bringing more talent around him. And they added another Reid disciple in Frank Reich as HC.  That I think is a huge parallel to how well Trubiksy will do.  It’s still about him proving the naysayers wrong (myself included) by his product on the field, plain and simple.  

 

[Mongo3451]

I liked the short and intermediate throws Trubisky made last year.  Where I thought he lacked was in his ability to hit the deep route and the speed of his progressions.  If he can hit a few deep balls early in the season, it's gonna be cool.

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

I liked the short and intermediate throws Trubisky made last year.  Where I thought he lacked was in his ability to hit the deep route and the speed of his progressions.  If he can hit a few deep balls early in the season, it's gonna be cool.

He definitely got better at the deep throw in the last part of ther season when he started to trust it and stopped aiming it.

One thing I saw from him all of last year was a quick release. He may not have always made the right reads, but he made quick decisions, and as more of those decisions turn out to be the right ones, his rhythm should really shine

[adam]

 

 

 

2

8 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Devils advocate:  yes I know, it’s the unpopular view amongst Bears fans but I still am not convinced making the jump from three to two has yet proven itself out.  Yes he made a pro bowl (as an alternate), yes he improved his stats from year one to year two and yes he has shown his ability to run as an alternative to passing.  But he still looks shaky on intermediate and long throws (he was intercepted three(?) times in last year’s playoff game), and year one was with Fox (as many remind us as almost an excuse) where two was with the more affable and cunning Nagy and his running will only get him so far.  

The eye test I apply tells me that he’s still got ALOT to prove.  You say Wentz was this and shoulda been that; he’s been injured most of the last two years.  Why?  Mostly because or his running.  Watson has out-produced overall compared to Trub right?  But he too was hobbled by injury.  But what’s more he didn’t have the same defense that Trub did to help recover from when he made mistakes.  

I still see Trubiksy as a version of Mariota or even Andrew Luck.  High draft picks but little yield (when talking ratios).  Mariota could be something great too but hasn’t really had a chance to flourish due to not having a lot of great players (on offense and defense) around him.  Luck, although hampered by injury for the last two previous years, came on strong last year after getting better physically and bringing more talent around him. And they added another Reid disciple in Frank Reich as HC.  That I think is a huge parallel to how well Trubiksy will do.  It’s still about him proving the naysayers wrong (myself included) by his product on the field, plain and simple.  

 

Trubisky threw for 303 yards with 1 TD and 0 INTs in the playoffs last year. Where are you getting 3 picks from?

Both Philly and Houston have great defenses, Philly had a top 5 Defense in 2017 and Houston has had a top 10 defense since Watt joined the team. 

Watson's stats are better than Trubisky's (400 more passing yards, 14 more TDs, 2 less INTs, but Watson has been throwing to DeAndre Hopkins for 2 years. Those are some easy stats.

The jury's still out on Trubisky, but to me, the arrow is pointing up.

[AZ54]

I stopped reading after "PFF data scientists"...

On the other hand I respect the fact that Trubisky went to the Pro Bowl not because of fans or PFF votes but because of player votes.  Just getting there as an alternate doesn't mean he's a HoF caliber QB either. 

I think, in the end, much of this noise is a byproduct of our instant society and everything thinking the world is digital (good or bad) with no in between and no room for people (athletes) to grow into their job.   These naysayers would never draft and develop a player like Hicks.  We could name dozens of others who developed into great players including many QBs like Steve Young, Ben Roethlisberger, Russell Wilson, Tony Romo, Terry Bradshaw (he was really hated by Steelers fans), or in basketball a player like Scottie Pippen. 

There is nothing necessarily wrong with a young inexperienced Trubisky struggling with his new offensive scheme and new skill position players.   I see criticism of his play and to back it up I'll see a highlight from week 3 against AZ, while ignoring the fact against the same blitzes later in the year he handled them well.  People also forget that he was injured and stayed in that game against Minn.  Then when he returned to the field he still wasn't quite himself against LA.  Against Philly in the playoffs he threw for 300 yards and if that kick goes through then I'd bet the narrative changes to a young improving QB.

It's not hard to see he grew tremendously in the offense from the first 4 games to last 4 games.  It's also not hard to see he still has a ways to go to be the QB that he, his coaches,  and the fans want him to become.    

[Stinger226]

20 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Devils advocate:  yes I know, it’s the unpopular view amongst Bears fans but I still am not convinced making the jump from three to two has yet proven itself out.  Yes he made a pro bowl (as an alternate), yes he improved his stats from year one to year two and yes he has shown his ability to run as an alternative to passing.  But he still looks shaky on intermediate and long throws (he was intercepted three(?) times in last year’s playoff game), and year one was with Fox (as many remind us as almost an excuse) where two was with the more affable and cunning Nagy and his running will only get him so far.  

The eye test I apply tells me that he’s still got ALOT to prove.  You say Wentz was this and shoulda been that; he’s been injured most of the last two years.  Why?  Mostly because or his running.  Watson has out-produced overall compared to Trub right?  But he too was hobbled by injury.  But what’s more he didn’t have the same defense that Trub did to help recover from when he made mistakes.  

I still see Trubiksy as a version of Mariota or even Andrew Luck.  High draft picks but little yield (when talking ratios).  Mariota could be something great too but hasn’t really had a chance to flourish due to not having a lot of great players (on offense and defense) around him.  Luck, although hampered by injury for the last two previous years, came on strong last year after getting better physically and bringing more talent around him. And they added another Reid disciple in Frank Reich as HC.  That I think is a huge parallel to how well Trubiksy will do.  It’s still about him proving the naysayers wrong (myself included) by his product on the field, plain and simple.  

 

Looking back trading up one spot does not look good , but the fruit of that move will be shown this year. SF lost the trade if you look at the assets they got from the trade. I give credit for Pace going after players he wants, he has built a SB contender and 12-4 record by his moves. Were all of them successful, not at all, but no GM makes all positive moves its about being a winner.. A prefect example of this is Akeem Hicks, he was on NOs and NEs rosters and they let him go. They are 2 of the top 5 franchises in the league but they are not condemned  for that move because they win. Something I think we are going to do for the few years with MT as our QB.  Hicks is also an example of players do not develop in just one or two years, it took him 4 to be who he is. MT could fail but I dont think he will, this year will answer a lot of questions. What I think will be funny is, if we win the SB and MT doesnt have Mahones type numbers we will be back here debating if he is any good. For me I have opinions some are spot on and some are stupid but I want the Bears to success so I will always view all of our players as ascending until they do not. For me I want us to get back to the SB and i dont care how many mistakes Pace might make getting us there as long as he gets us there.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

23 hours ago, adam said:

Trubisky threw for 303 yards with 1 TD and 0 INTs in the playoffs last year. Where are you getting 3 picks from?

Both Philly and Houston have great defenses, Philly had a top 5 Defense in 2017 and Houston has had a top 10 defense since Watt joined the team. 

Watson's stats are better than Trubisky's (400 more passing yards, 14 more TDs, 2 less INTs, but Watson has been throwing to DeAndre Hopkins for 2 years. Those are some easy stats.

The jury's still out on Trubisky, but to me, the arrow is pointing up.

My bust. I had recently watched the Rams highlight game and it was there he threw the 3 INTs.  For some reason in my fog of a brain I was thinking it was the philly game...thanks for the correction. 

Watson threw for 4165 yards and 26 TDs last year.  Of those Hopkins caught 1572 yards and 11 TDS.  That’s roughly a third of the receptions and TDs that Deshaun threw but clearly not all of them.  Who were the other QBs in Houston before Watson arrived and played with Hopkins his previous four years?  Saying they were “easy stats” is like saying Allen Robinson makes the QBs he plays with automatically better.  

 

 

[AZ54]

2 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

My bust. I had recently watched the Rams highlight game and it was there he threw the 3 INTs.  For some reason in my fog of a brain I was thinking it was the philly game...thanks for the correction. 

Watson threw for 4165 yards and 26 TDs last year.  Of those Hopkins caught 1572 yards and 11 TDS.  That’s roughly a third of the receptions and TDs that Deshaun threw but clearly not all of them.  Who were the other QBs in Houston before Watson arrived and played with Hopkins his previous four years?  Saying they were “easy stats” is like saying Allen Robinson makes the QBs he plays with automatically better.  

 

 

We can ask Rodgers if his WRs make a difference but he's already made that public knowledge.  Yes, having AR12 makes Trubisky better just as he made Bortles better.     The Rams game is the one Trubisky came back from injury and it was clearly his worst game of the year IMO given his experience in the offense at that part of the season.  He acknowledged trying to do too much in that game and then responded with Completion % of 71, 86, and 69 along with QBRs of 120, 113, 86 to finish the season.   Then he threw for 300+ yds in the playoff game and had a likely game winning drive with seconds left in the game IF anyone other than Cody Parkey was our kicker.  That playoff game wasn't pretty for the offense.  Howard ran for a whopping 35yds.  

[adam]

 

 

 

2

21 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

My bust. I had recently watched the Rams highlight game and it was there he threw the 3 INTs.  For some reason in my fog of a brain I was thinking it was the philly game...thanks for the correction. 

Watson threw for 4165 yards and 26 TDs last year.  Of those Hopkins caught 1572 yards and 11 TDS.  That’s roughly a third of the receptions and TDs that Deshaun threw but clearly not all of them.  Who were the other QBs in Houston before Watson arrived and played with Hopkins his previous four years?  Saying they were “easy stats” is like saying Allen Robinson makes the QBs he plays with automatically better.  

 

Yeah no worries, after looking at the stats, I figured the Rams game is what you were talking about.

Don't get me wrong or take this the wrong way. Good players help other players and make them better. ARob absolutely will help Trubisky, but I don't think he is quite at the level that Hopkins is at in the league, especially last year when he was still recovering from his injury. If Hopkins or a player at that level was on the Bears, they would be doing the same thing for Trubisky.  Your example is exactly what I am talking about. Hopkins made up 37% of Watson's yardage, while ARob only made up 23% of Trubisky's. That is a huge difference. 2800 of Mahomes' yards went to Hill and Kelce. Plug in 2x 800-yard receivers instead and he throws for only 3800. Still really good, but no way is he an MVP candidate.

Also, guys like Hopkins not only help on his own receptions, but they draw double coverage or at least the shading of coverage. That is incredibly important for a QB to see pre-snap. 

I am a huge Watson fan and wanted the Bears to draft him. I just think that some of these other QB's have been aided by HoF level players. Watson has Hopkins, Mahomes has Hill and Kelce, and Goff has Gurley. That is a ton of production from one or two players. We saw what Goff and the Rams looked like without Gurley. That doesn't mean that any of them are bad players, but they definitely provide some easier options. It will interesting to see how Mahomes does without Hill (if he is suspended).

Just watch some Hopkins highlights, he makes some crazy catches, or is wide open. Either way, the QB looks great.

[BearFan2000]

I expect him to take some major steps forward this season.  Year two in this offense, year three in the NFL.  We now have 3 RB's who can catch out of the backfield, we've added talent at WR to an already talented group.  Year 1 hampered by a horribly predictable and bland offense, year 2 he and his teammates were learning a new system and he was working with virtually a completely new group of weapons.  This year he is heading into camp running the same offense with mostly the same teammates.  There should be no excuses for Mitch and the offense to show significant progress.  This is his year to start shutting up some of these critics.  You never know how long the championship window will stay open, but now is the time to strike.  We have the talent to contend for and win multiple championships.  

[BearFan PHX]

PFF = pfft

[madlithuanian]

F PFF...  I love Tru!  I just pulled the trigger on the new retro white jersey for him!

[Alaskan Grizzly]

 

4 hours ago, madlithuanian said:

F PFF...  I love Tru!  I just pulled the trigger on the new retro white jersey for him!

I was eyeballing one of those for Mack...

With regards to Trubisky; I see he’s contemplating wearing McMahon’s headbands for the season.  That would be pretty sweet.  

I saw somewhere that Nagy had installed a T formation play last year during the first game against GB to pay homage to the old Bears under Coach Papa Bear. Gotta love that and something tells me there will be a ton of stuff like that this year.  Really like that link to our teams rich history!!  Gonna be a lot of fun this year.  

[Mongo3451]

13 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

 

I was eyeballing one of those for Mack...

Got it!  Next will be the navy with Trubisky.

 

[madlithuanian]

18 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

 

I was eyeballing one of those for Mack...

With regards to Trubisky; I see he’s contemplating wearing McMahon’s headbands for the season.  That would be pretty sweet.  

I saw somewhere that Nagy had installed a T formation play last year during the first game against GB to pay homage to the old Bears under Coach Papa Bear. Gotta love that and something tells me there will be a ton of stuff like that this year.  Really like that link to our teams rich history!!  Gonna be a lot of fun this year.  

I got my Navy Mack last year, so I needed a new hero!    I'd love to see Tru take on the headband!  

Fun is indeed the word!

[BearFan2000]

2 hours ago, madlithuanian said:

I got my Navy Mack last year, so I needed a new hero!    I'd love to see Tru take on the headband!  

Fun is indeed the word!

Mitch did pull of the pretty cool Ditka look last Halloween.  I really like seeing that Naggy has an appreciation for the history of the Bears and encourages that with his team.  I don't know if the headband thing fits Mitch's personality.  It became an outward rebellion thing with McMahon in response to Rozelle, for the 5,000 fine he got for wearing the Adidas one.  It'll be interesting to see if or how Mitch incorporates headbands, but, I love how the Pace/Naggy, and the Bears are embracing their rich history.  Even more so as this is the 100 year celebration.

[madlithuanian]

1 hour ago, BearFan2000 said:

Mitch did pull of the pretty cool Ditka look last Halloween.  I really like seeing that Naggy has an appreciation for the history of the Bears and encourages that with his team.  I don't know if the headband thing fits Mitch's personality.  It became an outward rebellion thing with McMahon in response to Rozelle, for the 5,000 fine he got for wearing the Adidas one.  It'll be interesting to see if or how Mitch incorporates headbands, but, I love how the Pace/Naggy, and the Bears are embracing their rich history.  Even more so as this is the 100 year celebration.

So true!  This group of guys are really easy to like!

[lemonej]

On PFT's Chris Simms Top 40 QB Rankings he comes in at 20 which is okay by me.