PFF hates Trubisky

[adam]

6 hours ago, lemonej said:

On PFT's Chris Simms Top 40 QB Rankings he comes in at 20 which is okay by me.

There are not 19 QB's better than Trubisky, come on, that is BS. At worst, he is 15, at best probably top 5. Here is his listing with the top 14 order not announced yet:

32 - Rosen
31 - Brissett (backup in Indy)
30 - Jackson (too low for me)
29 - Mariota  (too low for me)
28 - Keenum
27 - Winston (too low for me)
26 - Dalton
25 - Flacco
24 - Murray
23 - Allen
22 - Darnold
21 - Garoppolo
20 - Trubisky 
19 - Goff
18 - Carr
17 - Mayfield
16 - Foles
15 - Cousins
1-14: Mahomes, Brees, Brady, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Luck, Ryan, Wilson, Wentz, Watson, Newton, Prescott, Stafford, Rodgers

2018 QBR Rankings
1. Mahomes - 82.8
2. Brees - 80.8
3. Trubisky - 73.0
4. Roethlisberger - 71.7
5. Luck - 71.7
6. Brady - 70.5
7. Rivers - 70.0
8. Winston - 68.3
9. Ryan - 67.9
10. Goff - 65.9

So Trubisky had the 3rd highest QBR in the NFL on a 12-4 playoff team, yet he is the 20th best QB in the league going into this season with a better offense around him and the 2nd year in the same offense? That doesn't add up. 

Just based on sheer age, guys like Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, and Rivers can fall off the cliff at any time. Wentz and Newton are coming back from injuries, and Stafford and Prescott always seem overrated to me. Watson has barely done any more than Trubisky has and still has injury concerns. That leaves Mahomes, Brees, Luck, Wilson, and Rodgers. 

Also, no way is Mayfield, Foles (in Jax), Cousins or Goff better than Trubisky. 

[BearFan PHX]

well said adam.

PFF is just silliness. They use real math to relate data which is really just opinions about performances from too small of a sample size.

it would be as if I asked 5 of my friends to go a different movie each, and then asked them how they thought the one they saw rated on a scale of 1 to 10. You dont have the same people seeing the same movies so their internal rating systems dont even overlap.

Then I hide behind actually good math relating that poor data and call it science.

Ridiculous.

 

[adam]

On 6/15/2019 at 1:19 PM, BearFan NYC said:

well said adam.

PFF is just silliness. They use real math to relate data which is really just opinions about performances from too small of a sample size.

it would be as if I asked 5 of my friends to go a different movie each, and then asked them how they thought the one they saw rated on a scale of 1 to 10. You dont have the same people seeing the same movies so their internal rating systems dont even overlap.

Then I hide behind actually good math relating that poor data and call it science.

Ridiculous.

 

To me, it is getting to the point of insanity. They are now widely quoted and linked to support an argument where all the traditional data doesn't even support the same position. If they match the consensus, they are not needed, so they decided to make a metric that is controversial at best.

I would love for them to make predictions, like most of the analytics guys did for hockey, and then we can show they were wrong. All they do is rank how they think someone did, with no ties to future performance, which is the point of analytics in the first place. If they can't be predictive, there is no need for them.

By pretty much every metric known to man, Trubisky improved in 2018 and had a very solid season with the needle pointing to an even better year this year. If you look at PFF, he is literally a game manager who runs, and is a liability to the team at QB. 

[BearFan PHX]

2 hours ago, adam said:

To me, it is getting to the point of insanity. They are now widely quoted and linked to support an argument where all the traditional data doesn't even support the same position. If they match the consensus, they are not needed, so they decided to make a metric that is controversial at best.

I would love for them to make predictions, like most of the analytics guys did for hockey, and then we can show they were wrong. All they do is rank how they think someone did, with no ties to future performance, which is the point of analytics in the first place. If they can't be predictive, there is no need for them.

By pretty much every metric known to man, Trubisky improved in 2018 and had a very solid season with the needle pointing to an even better year this year. If you look at PFF, he is literally a game manager who runs, and is a liability to the team at QB. 

I dont believe they intend to short change Trubisky, that's just how their ridiculous system ended up grading him.

What I saw was a QB with a lot of great qualities who had a few really great games and a few poor ones. I also saw him grow from the beginning of the year to the end of the year.

If he can string together more of those good performances, I think everyone will have to say that hes a top 10 QB in the league.

I really think this is all just a matter of the draft day common wisdom that trading up was a bad move. I dont agree with that. But more so, even if it was true, it shouldnt tarnish the player, taken at 2 instead of 3. He isnt responsible for the picks they traded.

It's all so silly. Just narratives bouncing around an echo chamber of media and internet people repeating the same things to each other.

[Stinger226]

Anytime a system rates A. Amos as one of the top 3 safeties in the league, something is wrong with the system. It is just one tool to use to diagnosis a player,  not the most important.

[lemonej]

I'm Going to ask everyone if Mitch played like a top 20 QB the whole season or better? He helped get the Bears to the playoffs but, the defense set the tone and carried this team.imo

[Stinger226]

I would call him average last year, but he had some good moments. I think he will be top 10 this year with the offense going into its second year development.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, lemonej said:

I'm Going to ask everyone if Mitch played like a top 20 QB the whole season or better? He helped get the Bears to the playoffs but, the defense set the tone and carried this team.imo

I think your earlier assessment of him being around 20th overall is pretty accurate.  I'd say even somewhere in between 15-20.  You're right in that the defense did a lot to make him look better, but he did a few things on his own that I think make others hesitate in grading him really high.
 

In just a quick snapshot of other sources and where they ranked him last year going into 2019 (I literally entered 'nfl Qb rankings' and went down the line):

15th - Sporting News

19th - Athlon Sports

19th - Pro Football Weekly (based on passing stats)

19th - NFL.com (Greg Rosenthal)

24th - USA Today (For the Win)

I saw Adam's comment about his QBR rating being at #3 but have we really ever figured out what that actually means? 

[AZ54]

At least our team isn't dealing with this crap from our franchise QB:

https://brownswire.usatoday.com/2019/06/04/baker-mayfield-to-duke-johnson-youre-either-on-this-train-or-youre-not/

Then Mayfield's WRs had to have a personal chat with him about respecting other players.

https://heavy.com/sports/2019/06/browns-baker-mayfield-duke-johnson/

The NFL is filled with ups and downs even for elite players.  How a QB handles the downs early in his career says a lot about their character IMO.  Trubisky has already weathered a ton of criticism in his first two seasons (as seen in this thread from outside sources) yet he's always handled himself with class, continues to work hard, and focuses on improving his performance first without criticizing his teammates. 

OTOH Mayfield is already showing plenty of signs that won't be his M.O.  From the way he treated Hugh Jackson on the field in front of everyone, and now his teammate Johnson  it's clear he won't or can't handle things with class.  Brown's fans should be elated because of the future the roster has but if I were in their shoes I'd be nervous about what Mayfield could become if/when things go downhill.    

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, AZ54 said:

At least our team isn't dealing with this crap from our franchise QB:

https://brownswire.usatoday.com/2019/06/04/baker-mayfield-to-duke-johnson-youre-either-on-this-train-or-youre-not/

Then Mayfield's WRs had to have a personal chat with him about respecting other players.

https://heavy.com/sports/2019/06/browns-baker-mayfield-duke-johnson/

The NFL is filled with ups and downs even for elite players.  How a QB handles the downs early in his career says a lot about their character IMO.  Trubisky has already weathered a ton of criticism in his first two seasons (as seen in this thread from outside sources) yet he's always handled himself with class, continues to work hard, and focuses on improving his performance first without criticizing his teammates. 

Right about MT.  Despite all the knocks (Colin Cowherd being one of them), Mitch just keeps doing his thing.  And part of that appears to be a good “teammate”.  I’d take that over raw talent any day.  I’ll reiterate my point that if he plays within the offense that Nagy deploys for him; I feel he’ll do all right.  Not sure it’ll be HOF worthy but it really doesn’t have to be. 

As far as Mayfield; he’s a toolbag.  I find it ironic if not hypocritical of him to do as you outline above but didn’t call out Odell for missing early season practices (yes voluntary - but still).  And when Colin Cowherd does what Colin does; Mayfield replies with “he (Cowherd) needs to be put in his place” and he “throws names of other people under the bus” (when asked about Cowherds knock on Beckham).  Oh really? 

https://www.complex.com/sports/2019/05/baker-mayfield-says-colin-cowherd-needs-to-be-put-in-his-place-defends-odell-beckham-jr

[AZ54]

2 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Right about MT.  Despite all the knocks (Colin Cowherd being one of them), Mitch just keeps doing his thing.  And part of that appears to be a good “teammate”.  I’d take that over raw talent any day.  I’ll reiterate my point that if he plays within the offense that Nagy deploys for him; I feel he’ll do all right.  Not sure it’ll be HOF worthy but it really doesn’t have to be. 

As far as Mayfield; he’s a toolbag.  I find it ironic if not hypocritical of him to do as you outline above but didn’t call out Odell for missing early season practices (yes voluntary - but still).  And when Colin Cowherd does what Colin does; Mayfield replies with “he (Cowherd) needs to be put in his place” and he “throws names of other people under the bus” (when asked about Cowherds knock on Beckham).  Oh really? 

https://www.complex.com/sports/2019/05/baker-mayfield-says-colin-cowherd-needs-to-be-put-in-his-place-defends-odell-beckham-jr

I didn't realize he started going after people in the media too.   That usually doesn't end well for the player.  

[adam]

 

 

1

14 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I think your earlier assessment of him being around 20th overall is pretty accurate.  I'd say even somewhere in between 15-20.  You're right in that the defense did a lot to make him look better, but he did a few things on his own that I think make others hesitate in grading him really high.
 

In just a quick snapshot of other sources and where they ranked him last year going into 2019 (I literally entered 'nfl Qb rankings' and went down the line):

15th - Sporting News

19th - Athlon Sports

19th - Pro Football Weekly (based on passing stats)

19th - NFL.com (Greg Rosenthal)

24th - USA Today (For the Win)

I saw Adam's comment about his QBR rating being at #3 but have we really ever figured out what that actually means? 

Grizz,
The point of contention I have is that there is a clear media biased against Trubisky regardless of how well he plays. Simms said he was the 20th best QB going into this season, and there literally is nothing that supports that position. PFF ranks him low, and as you can see by the rankings, USA Today is completely out of whack as well. 

There are a million ways to "rank" the players. Just take this scenario for example with the couple of guys in front of him on Simms list. If you had to pick Trubisky or any of the guys from 15-19 for performance in 2019, who would you pick?  Goff looked like crap without Gurley and with Kupp coming back from the knee injury, I can't see Goff outproducing Trubisky this year, especially if Trubisky improves even just a little bit. How about Carr? There is potential for a complete train wreck in Oakland and he wasn't that good to begin with. Mayfield, maybe, but his numbers were worse than Trubisky's last year. Foles in Jacksonville? This guy has never played even average outside of Philly, so nothing would point to him doing that in Jacksonville who is devoid of talent on the offense. Then Cousins, you could make a case for Cousins just because of his receivers, but straight up, with all things equal Trubisky should have the edge.

Here is some info about QBR: https://www.espn.com/blog/statsinfo/post/_/id/123701/how-is-total-qbr-calculated-we-explain-our-quarterback-rating

Everyone is entitled to their opinion and all the rankings are subjective, I get that, but there seems to be a consensus hate on Trubisky in the national media for whatever reason. He can't help that the Bears traded up to draft him, and he was picked before Mahomes. Nothing you can do about that now, and he shouldn't be penalized for it. 

I just think it is a fascinating phenomenon.

 

 

[lemonej]

My only problem with Simms' rankings is there are rookies on his list.BWTBS Mitch has yet to prove he is a consistent franchise QB!

[BearFan PHX]

10 hours ago, adam said:

there seems to be a consensus hate on Trubisky in the national media for whatever reason. He can't help that the Bears traded up to draft him, and he was picked before Mahomes. Nothing you can do about that now, and he shouldn't be penalized for it.

 

amen.

Stats aside, you ask yourself, if it was just for one year, this coming season, would you rather have Trubisky or X?

And I dont think there are 14 QBs in the league Id pick before Trubisky for just 2020.

He might not be top 10, but he's probably hanging around that threshold.

And if you widen it out to mean the next few years, Ill take Trubisky.

Sure if a young Brady was available for the same price yada yada, but he isnt, and Trubisky is no slouch.

He wasnt bad last year either, he was inconsistent. ANd that will change as he grows. He definitely showed times where he was a top 5 QB.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

11 hours ago, adam said:

Everyone is entitled to their opinion and all the rankings are subjective, I get that, but there seems to be a consensus hate on Trubisky in the national media for whatever reason. He can't help that the Bears traded up to draft him, and he was picked before Mahomes. Nothing you can do about that now, and he shouldn't be penalized for it. 

I just think it is a fascinating phenomenon.

Exactly.  And with the five sources I cited, they were pretty consistent.  Granted USA Today was a bit tilted to the negative but still...  I think it safe to say that those that wrote the respective articles; understanding subjective views as they are, are based on observations they made separate from one another.  And believe me when I say Chris Simms is probably not a great authority on grading great QBs; his dad maybe ... but not Chris.  They probably all looked at how all 32 starting QB's have done and/or will do on their respective teams.  We look at Trubisky and agree he's better (or potentially could be) than a loonnnnnnnggggg list of not so good QBs in Chicago.  So yes, I get the perception of a "consensus hate". 

Perhaps a better question to ask is how would the QB's listed ahead of Trubisky perform in the offense he's currently in?  I think it safe to say that Foles would probably do pretty well, given Philly's offense is almost identical to it.  On that level, I would think Trubisky might still weigh out to where he is currently.  NYC said Trubisky was "inconsistent" and I think that hurts him a lot.  Is it fair?  Maybe not.  We have yet to see how he performs in year 2 of this offense. 

 

[Mongo3451]

It's very fair to say Trubisky is inconsistent.  It is also unfair to not recognize that he is ascending.  I don't give a shit what people say, Trubisky is both.  But, he meets the eye test.  He'll be alright.

 

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

It's very fair to say Trubisky is inconsistent.  It is also unfair to not recognize that he is ascending.  I don't give a shit what people say, Trubisky is both.  But, he meets the eye test.  He'll be alright.

 

totally agree. I think he will do very well this year. I think sooner or later he will be a top 5 QB.

[AZ54]

On 6/19/2019 at 6:53 PM, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Exactly.  And with the five sources I cited, they were pretty consistent.  Granted USA Today was a bit tilted to the negative but still...  I think it safe to say that those that wrote the respective articles; understanding subjective views as they are, are based on observations they made separate from one another.  And believe me when I say Chris Simms is probably not a great authority on grading great QBs; his dad maybe ... but not Chris.  They probably all looked at how all 32 starting QB's have done and/or will do on their respective teams.  We look at Trubisky and agree he's better (or potentially could be) than a loonnnnnnnggggg list of not so good QBs in Chicago.  So yes, I get the perception of a "consensus hate". 

Perhaps a better question to ask is how would the QB's listed ahead of Trubisky perform in the offense he's currently in?  I think it safe to say that Foles would probably do pretty well, given Philly's offense is almost identical to it.  On that level, I would think Trubisky might still weigh out to where he is currently.  NYC said Trubisky was "inconsistent" and I think that hurts him a lot.  Is it fair?  Maybe not.  We have yet to see how he performs in year 2 of this offense. 

 

I'd say in passing both are about equal.  Foles has significant limitations under pressure and Trubisky shines more often than not in those moments.  Mostly I see Foles ahead of Trubisky on reading defenses and being able to make the quick decisions.  However, he wasn't always that way, especially not in his 2nd season. 

Then there are the adhoc plays and designed read-options that a defense must account for with Trubisky on the field.  Do you think Foles will provide the running threat or yards that Trubisky does?  Zero chance of that.  Yet the media ignores his ability to run.  

In support of that ignoring his running consider Lamar Jackson and his 4.7ypc versus Trubisky's 6.7ypc.  Yet Jackson is ranked 15th on USA Today's list.  (This is their ranking of a team's QB situation not QBs per se).  So Trubisky is better at passing than Jackson completing 66.6% of his passes vs.  58.2%.   Plus he is more efficient running than Jackson too.  Trubisky QB rating 95.4 vs. Jackson at 84.5.  And if you say that Jackson is limited in his running yards because defenses are stacking the box well then shouldn't that make it easier for him to pass?  

Meanwhile these same knuckleheads put Goff at #7 despite their own precaution that even after 3 seasons in the NFL he can't read defenses on his own and still has to rely on his HC calling the play.   Maybe they were watching a different Superbowl than the rest of us.     

 

[adam]

8 hours ago, AZ54 said:

I'd say in passing both are about equal.  Foles has significant limitations under pressure and Trubisky shines more often than not in those moments.  Mostly I see Foles ahead of Trubisky on reading defenses and being able to make the quick decisions.  However, he wasn't always that way, especially not in his 2nd season. 

Then there are the adhoc plays and designed read-options that a defense must account for with Trubisky on the field.  Do you think Foles will provide the running threat or yards that Trubisky does?  Zero chance of that.  Yet the media ignores his ability to run.  

In support of that ignoring his running consider Lamar Jackson and his 4.7ypc versus Trubisky's 6.7ypc.  Yet Jackson is ranked 15th on USA Today's list.  (This is their ranking of a team's QB situation not QBs per se).  So Trubisky is better at passing than Jackson completing 66.6% of his passes vs.  58.2%.   Plus he is more efficient running than Jackson too.  Trubisky QB rating 95.4 vs. Jackson at 84.5.  And if you say that Jackson is limited in his running yards because defenses are stacking the box well then shouldn't that make it easier for him to pass?  

Meanwhile these same knuckleheads put Goff at #7 despite their own precaution that even after 3 seasons in the NFL he can't read defenses on his own and still has to rely on his HC calling the play.   Maybe they were watching a different Superbowl than the rest of us.     

 

AZ,
This is my exact argument. They literally rank players with no real tangible supporting information. Is Trubisky a top 5 QB, no, but can he be? Why not? If you said he was the 8th best QB, most of his stats would back up that position. If you said top 12, same, but when you start saying he is in the bottom half of the league (16th and lower), biased views seem to come into play. 

Simms even said that the "arrow is pointed straight up for Trubisky in this offense" then ranks him 20th. It doesn't add up. 

Again, I just find it interesting that the media continues to downplay his ability but guys like Foles, Jackson, and Goff like AZ stated, and others like Mayfield and Watson are immune to the same criticism that Trubisky receives.

Funny how SF doesn't take any flak for drafting like crap outside of Kittle, and paid a huge amount of money for JimmyG and have yet to see any real results. I know the injury occurred, but Trubisky didn't get a free pass from criticism for his injury which didn't seem to fully heal until the playoffs.

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

12 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Then there are the adhoc plays and designed read-options that a defense must account for with Trubisky on the field.  Do you think Foles will provide the running threat or yards that Trubisky does?  Zero chance of that.  Yet the media ignores his ability to run. 

That will only get him so far and the media knows that. Just like Adam touched on, Trubisky didn’t really seem healed until the playoffs.  He got injured because of his running.  His passing is more ‘inconsistent’ and that is where he gets the critique he deserves.  Its also fair to say he has yet show he can read defenses. The offensive scheme he played in last year allowed him limited reads. This year will be different.  Is he along the same lines of other QBs of his peer group? Probably.  But that doesn’t earn him a top 10 ranking, not yet anyhow. 

 

[AZ54]

11 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

That will only get him so far and the media knows that. Just like Adam touched on, Trubisky didn’t really seem healed until the playoffs.  He got injured because of his running.  His passing is more ‘inconsistent’ and that is where he gets the critique he deserves.  Its also fair to say he has yet show he can read defenses. The offensive scheme he played in last year allowed him limited reads. This year will be different.  Is he along the same lines of other QBs of his peer group? Probably.  But that doesn’t earn him a top 10 ranking, not yet anyhow. 

 

First Trubisky got injured on a late hit, not by running or because he was running.  He was actually laying on the ground at the time.  Running like that in the open field and sliding early is far less dangerous IMO than staying in the pocket.  A player could just as easily take a cheap shot on him in the pocket.  If he were trying to be a RB and take on tacklers as others like Cam and Jackson have done at times...that's bad for longevity.  

...and so you agree with Jackson being ranked ahead of him?  What about Watson who just said last week he's starting to understand his offense (in his 3rd year) and reading defenses better?  Neither of us said Trubisky is a top 10 QB.   You say he is inconsistent in passing yet he has 66% completions and six games were over 70%.  His comp% is ahead of Brady, Wilson, Mahomes, Goff, Mayfield, Rodgers, Jackson, Darnold, Stafford, Rosen, and Josh Allen.  For comparison with the new gold standard:  With Pro Bowl WR/TE/RB, and in his second year in the offense, Mahomes had just one more game (7 total) over 70% completions.   

Of course there are some inconsistencies in Trubisky's passing, and inconsistencies in his reading of defenses but the data in many ways shows he's solidly in the middle of the pack if not ahead of many names rated well ahead of him (Goff for sure).  Yet a QB who is middle of the pack relative to his peers who is also near the top of the pack in running ranks below them?  That certainly didn't hold true for Cam Newton, Jackson, Wentz, Mahomes, and Watson when they were running around.  For those QBs the ability to scramble and run made them more special and moved them up in the rankings despite poor completion %.  In his nearly MVP year Wentz was only completing passes at 63% and finished 2017 with just 60% completed.  Moreover in 2017 he never had a single game over a 70% completion rate.  FWIW he improved in his 3rd season quite a bit.    

National media types don't watch Bears games, not like we do.  We are hyper-critical, as most fans of teams are, of our own players.  

 

 

[BearFan PHX]

FWIW, Im the guy that added the word "inconsistent" to this thread, and I saw him play some VERY impressive games, and then he had some poor ones too.

That's to be expected with a young QB, his first year in the offense. I dont think he is doomed to be inconsistent, I am very optimistic about his future.

Last year, he looked young. But when the light was on, he looked top 5. I expect more consistency this year, and Im a big fan.

[AZ54]

10 hours ago, BearFan NYC said:

FWIW, Im the guy that added the word "inconsistent" to this thread, and I saw him play some VERY impressive games, and then he had some poor ones too.

That's to be expected with a young QB, his first year in the offense. I dont think he is doomed to be inconsistent, I am very optimistic about his future.

Last year, he looked young. But when the light was on, he looked top 5. I expect more consistency this year, and Im a big fan.

I'm just saying when you look through their individual game stats almost all QBs are inconsistent.  Then there is Drew Brees.  Trubisky just needs to hit on two or three more intermediate/deep passes per game and that goes away.  It's those missed big play opportunities that stand out (at least to me) and often the players he targeted were open.  With him in the second year  of this offense and play calls and reading the defense reportedly coming more naturally for him I'm hopeful he'll be more focused on his throwing mechanics.  When he has his body all lined up he can fit the ball into some very tight windows even with players on the move.  If he wants to be a legit franchise QB those are the plays he has to make. 

[adam]

Trubisky compared to Bortles?:

So what do you think?

[AZ54]

Worthless analysis.  They say he is as inaccurate as Bortles yet just in 15sec of looking at their stats Trubisky completed in his second season and first year of new offense 66.6% of his passes while Bortles has never exceeded 60.3% in 5 seasons.  Again it's a few negative plays that standout in people's minds because, especially in this case, I think that's what they want to see to back up their view of what Trubisky is.  It's not even worth arguing about especially if they can't even look at some basic data.     We all know the glass is half full with Trubisky it's just a question of if you think the arrow is going up or staying flat.