Kollman on Trubisky

[AZ54]

This has been all over the Bears fans message boards and such the last week.  Comments on some threads have been highly emotional (no shock).  I don't really see any surprises in this analysis.  I still see a young QB in a new offense with an entirely new WR group and Burton still learning the NFL.  Trubisky improved quite a bit over the course of the season and he definitely still has room for improvement.  I'm not sure why this is "news" to any NFL fan who has watched many young QBs struggle early in their careers. 

Nobody knows what trajectory his career will take from here but we do know that he is putting in the work to get better.  At this point it seems his floor will likely be that of a good NFL QB (an Alex Smith type), one you can win with.  That's not what we want from the #2 overall pick but there are also plenty of flashes of elite play enticing enough to make us wonder what if he puts it all together?  

 

 

[Mongo3451]

From my viewpoint, that was a great analysis.  If Mitch takes us on a roller coaster ride and improves while doing so, he will be fine.  

[BearFan PHX]

It was a good analysis, and you can bet that Nagy and Helfrich are aware of all of it, and that Trubisky is motivated to improve. I wouldnt bet against that. I think the arrow points up.

But yes, Trubisky was totally inconsistent last year, but that means he had flashes of greatness too. He was just uneven. And thats a lot better than consistently average.

[adam]

I am sure most QB's have passes that look like that (some good, some bad) on the same play. He definitely makes some good points (Trubisky's hips) which lead to inconsistent deliveries, however, you don't throw to the same receiver just because you run the same play. The reads can be completely flipped based on the coverage. So I think he is reaching there. Overall a good analysis, but I think some of the inconsistencies are with Trubisky's knowledge of the offense. You can only process some many things in 2-3 seconds, and if things are not committed to memory or 2nd nature, he is processing an extra thing, which leads to those inconsistent decisions. 

Also, how many bad throws did he really have? Let's say 2 a game that should've been completions. That would've put him at 73% completion percentage, 2nd only to Brees. That seems incredibly high. 

I also don't know where he gets Trubisky being terrible in the 2nd, but great in the 4th. If you look at his splits. His best quarter is the 1st, so I don't know where he got that from. He also has a better QB Rating with the lead compared to when trailing.  Contrary to the video.

[BearFan PHX]

40 minutes ago, adam said:

You can only process some many things in 2-3 seconds, and if things are not committed to memory or 2nd nature, he is processing an extra thing, which leads to those inconsistent decisions.

For sure. There is every reason to think he will be faster and better in his reads in this second year in the offense.

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, BearFan NYC said:

For sure. There is every reason to think he will be faster and better in his reads in this second year in the offense.

When I looked at the one play where Kollman said Trubisky made the right read early in the season, then later in the season held onto the ball and missed the read... IMO on both plays Trubisky was holding the ball too long.  I don't see much difference other than the fact on the first one Burton comes open so much that throwing late was ok.  On the second play against the Patriots Trubisky hesitates a bit then holds onto the ball knowing he missed the read.  While this is not ideal it's also what I prefer the young QB does, hold onto the ball and don't force a bad play because you were a second late on the read.   

If he's learning those plays should eventually be read more quickly and it's very subtle on which DB, or DBs he has to look at.  Nobody is better than NE at disguising coverages while also having their team coached up on how to defend the usual plays.  That's what we see where the Patriots DB starts to fall for the deep routes then remembers he has to drop off to cover the underneath route.  Belichick has been coaching against Andy Reid's plays for how many decades?  

[Mongo3451]

I think the main issue he had with Trubisky was that he was missing the primary read.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

I saw this video pop up the other day and recall it being the same guy that did an analysis of Howard that you (AZ) brought to our attention?  It's interesting that his analysis of Howard and his not meshing with Nagy's offense was 'spot on' but this analysis is under more scrutiny.  Nevertheless...

I agree that Trubisky's mechanics are flawed.  Especially with how Kollman illustrates it.  His hips not squaring up to throw is a QB 101 type problem that may/may not get fixed with more practice.  Sort of like how Cutler was notorious for throwing off his back foot.  The problem with Trubisky is he doesn't have a lot of 'tape' to look at.  Again his starting record reflected his one season as a starter at only 13 games.  And when he did have the chance to get live reps in last year's preseason. Nagy chose to sit him. This doesn't help for a guy who might be struggling to learn a complex offense. 

With regards to the reads; Kollman pointed out the same play was called in two separate games (sometimes in the same game) and in one instance Trubiisky made a brilliant read where in the second instance he did not.  Remember last year Nagy limited the offense to what Trubisky could handle, at the time, so having a myriad of reads wasn't really a priority.  Having a 'look' is different than having a 'read'.  The one difference being that with this QB, last years singular read will expand to multiple reads whereas the look will fundamentally remain the same.  I think what happened with one play looking better than the other was Trubisky trying to freelance too much and his mechanics getting sloppy...or as Kollman points out; 'Trubisky overthought it'. 

We all agree that Mitch has great potential.  For what its worth, I would even say as long as Mitch is able to play similarly to Alex Smith the defense will pick up the slack.  So no he doesn't really need to play up to his 2nd pick overall expectation, just as long as the wins happen. Worked for Grossman...should work for Trubisky too. 

[AZ54]

I think the analysis is spot on.  The only real problem I have with Kollman is that he feels a QB is already displaying what they will become in year two.  I disagree with that just based on how other HoF QBs have fared early in their careers.  He freely admits he has no idea which way Trubisky will trend next season (of course) but still alleges that he should have been better in his second season.  (Note:  He could have been better is different from he should have been better.)   He also largely ignored his running game and ability to extend plays.  Would he do the same when evaluating Cam Newton?  I doubt it because that's a big part of what makes Cam so dangerous despite his subpar passing stats.   I also would have preferred seeing him compare him across the season as I think there was improvement albeit some ups and some downs throughout the year.  Trubisky was clearly lost in the first few games of the season.  

History, and I've shown plenty of data to back this up, says we won't know what he is until after year 3 or 4.  For now I enjoyed his progress last year over his rookie year when snaps under center were a "problem".   I still remain optimistic that he'll improve again this year.  Whatever he becomes I think he has the right HC to bring the best out of him.   

[Alaskan Grizzly]

14 hours ago, AZ54 said:

He freely admits he has no idea which way Trubisky will trend next season (of course) but still alleges that he should have been better in his second season.  (Note:  He could have been better is different from he should have been better.)   He also largely ignored his running game and ability to extend plays.  Would he do the same when evaluating Cam Newton?  I doubt it because that's a big part of what makes Cam so dangerous despite his subpar passing stats.  

Personally I don’t think as much emphasis should be put on Trubiskys running ability. Sure it has helped some QBs like Cam and Russel Wilson but it has also hampered some QBs like RGIII or Kordell Stewart who either through injury or just being contained by the opposing defense were outed as one dimensional.  The scrambling QB has a short shelf life, especially those that can’t throw with equal or more skill.  Tom Brady certainly isn’t know for his scrambling ability and that doesn’t figure into oppositions game planning.  So again, not sure we can (or should) rely on that as a factor for Mitch.  Just look at last year when Trubiksy was injured and how much it affected his playability (missing two games and playing rough while he recovered).  It’s safe to assume that he can’t continue to rely on that as his primary skill set.  He needs to improve upon his throwing ability and ability to read defenses.  

 

The points made in this analysis were more about the inconstancy across the season, not so much whether Mitch improved or even declined in his ability during the season. Kollmans point about the ‘2nd quarter Mitch not as good as the 4th quarter Mitch’ is a point observed throughout the whole season, not just early on. This was seen both during games  in the first few weeks of the season as it was during the playoff game against Philly.  Again, this is a consistency (or lack thereof) issue.  I’ll agree that with more playing time this could be something that Mitch is able to overcome but it’s possible he may not (again see Cutler).  That is more what Kollman is speaking to, at least that was my understanding.  

[AZ54]

10 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Personally I don’t think as much emphasis should be put on Trubiskys running ability. Sure it has helped some QBs like Cam and Russel Wilson but it has also hampered some QBs like RGIII or Kordell Stewart who either through injury or just being contained by the opposing defense were outed as one dimensional.  The scrambling QB has a short shelf life, especially those that can’t throw with equal or more skill.  Tom Brady certainly isn’t know for his scrambling ability and that doesn’t figure into oppositions game planning.  So again, not sure we can (or should) rely on that as a factor for Mitch.  Just look at last year when Trubiksy was injured and how much it affected his playability (missing two games and playing rough while he recovered).  It’s safe to assume that he can’t continue to rely on that as his primary skill set.  He needs to improve upon his throwing ability and ability to read defenses.  

 

The points made in this analysis were more about the inconstancy across the season, not so much whether Mitch improved or even declined in his ability during the season. Kollmans point about the ‘2nd quarter Mitch not as good as the 4th quarter Mitch’ is a point observed throughout the whole season, not just early on. This was seen both during games  in the first few weeks of the season as it was during the playoff game against Philly.  Again, this is a consistency (or lack thereof) issue.  I’ll agree that with more playing time this could be something that Mitch is able to overcome but it’s possible he may not (again see Cutler).  That is more what Kollman is speaking to, at least that was my understanding.  

Players win games in different ways.   If we play Cam Newton you can bet I'm concerned about his ability to run and make big plays that way, even if I'm not too concerned about his passing.  If we play against Tom Brady it's the complete opposite.  Even at other positions it's the same.  Look at Tarik Cohen.  He's not a very good RB but he is capable of making very big plays and can do so in a variety of ways.  

For those reasons I think analysts should evaluate everything a player brings to the table to help win games.  If you add in the ability to scramble and extend or create plays on his own then a QB who cannot do so very well has to be more effective throwing to get the same results.  How else can you explain Cam Newton winning league MVP with less than a 60% completion rate?   People are critical of Trubisky at 66%.  A good coach knows those strengths and utilizes them to the offense's advantage while minimizing what a QB doesn't do well.     

[Alaskan Grizzly]

17 hours ago, AZ54 said:

People are critical of Trubisky at 66%

As they should be.  That is a result of one of his two years of play not his career average.  But I see this continuously being brought up and wonder if that is the measure; 66% completion rate?  (Speaking of Cam, his completion rate for last year was almost 68% at 67.9). Are you as willing to defend DeShaun Watson's CAREER completion rate of 66.4% or Dak Prescott's at 66.1%   I sorta know your stance on Watson in that your belief for his success relies mostly on Hopkins and that 'he can make any QB look good'.  But what about Prescott?  I've been a marginal fan of his since he came to the NFL but I can't tell you any specific time he 'wowed' me with his performance.  Still, he has one more year on Trubisky and even with his completion rate at the 66% bar, Dallas isn't sure they are going to extend / renew his contract.   

[AZ54]

On 7/17/2019 at 3:02 PM, Alaskan Grizzly said:

As they should be.  That is a result of one of his two years of play not his career average.  But I see this continuously being brought up and wonder if that is the measure; 66% completion rate?  (Speaking of Cam, his completion rate for last year was almost 68% at 67.9). Are you as willing to defend DeShaun Watson's CAREER completion rate of 66.4% or Dak Prescott's at 66.1%   I sorta know your stance on Watson in that your belief for his success relies mostly on Hopkins and that 'he can make any QB look good'.  But what about Prescott?  I've been a marginal fan of his since he came to the NFL but I can't tell you any specific time he 'wowed' me with his performance.  Still, he has one more year on Trubisky and even with his completion rate at the 66% bar, Dallas isn't sure they are going to extend / renew his contract.   

Right now Watson is injury prone and he has a tendency to hold onto the ball too long.  As pointed out in the video Trubisky also holds onto the ball too long at times.   My concern with Watson was some of his deep passes in college we just complete ducks, even when he wasn't under pressure.  I loved his leadership and thought he'd be a great QB in the right system that took advantage of his very good short-to-intermediate passing game.   He's been better at the deep ball so far than I expected.  There's no denying having one of the top 3 WRs in the NFL helped him compared to what Trubisky had in year one.   

If that 2017 draft were done over all 3 QBs would be taken top 10 with Mahomes going #1 overall to Cleveland.  I'd presume SF then takes DE Garrett and we'd take Trubisky #3.