Trubisky among top Breakout players in 2019?

[AZ54]

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2848118-nfl-scouts-see-mitchell-trubisky-as-1-of-the-biggest-breakout-players-in-2019?share=twitter

It's interesting to see this article coming on the heels of a few people at camp saying Trubisky is not playing well.  I never know what to make of training camp.  Last year Chiefs fans were nervous about Mahomes because he was throwing too many INTs in camp.  He turned out ok but others, like Alex Smith, turn into a Checkdown Charlie.  That can look good in camp until the real games show up and you can't stretch the defense well enough.  To his credit Smith overcame those habits with the help of Matt Nagy.  

If you prefer to go solely off INTs then Trubisky has had a few rough days recently.  What we don't know is if these are new plays, or new players in new roles he is trying to throw to and their timing is off.  Or are his mechanics poor?   It's training camp too so he'll throw the football regardless of coverage when in a real game he might just run with it. 

What we do know is that he's facing one of the top defenses in the NFL, if not the best, and their new DC is mixing up coverages and blitzes like crazy.    To his credit Trubisky has made many "dime" throws for TDs and big plays against tight coverage.  

We're 6 days away from our first look.  

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Found this gem (IMHO) of a video explaining how pre-snap reads are supposed to work.  And how Trubisky struggled early on last season with them then over time (and right about week 15) looked as though he started to ‘get it’ a little better.

To me, this is basic QB skill that once it’s fully grasped will especially help NFL QBs have successful careers. Cutler was especially bad at it; why I think he wasn’t allowed to do a lot of audibles.  With Trubisky for us ‘armchair QBs’ it’ll become more apparent if you see him successfully change a play at the line of scrimmage... and other things indicated in the video. 

Now if we can just get him to stop the long range overthrows. 

 

[AZ54]

Trubisky struggled a ton early in the year, especially in the Arizona game I attended.  The improvement was obvious across the season and hopefully continues this year.  

[adam]

Really good video, but I will say the pre-snap read is overrated if you just care about zone vs man. 

Just because a defender does or does not follow an offensive player doesn't automatically mean they are in a zone or man scheme. Defenses show something pre-snap (like man) and drop into zone after the snap all the time. Also, individual defenders can be in man (top DB following top WR) while the rest of the defense is in zone.

The big takeaway is the safety positioning. When a Safety intercepts a pass, it is almost always a bad read. If any other defender does, it is normally is a bad pass.

I always felt that some of Trubisky's issues dealt with the play calls themselves. I have seen plays where all the receivers seemed to have the same progression, instead of short, intermediate, long, dump off options. They all seemed to be the same. That changed at some point in the season, maybe when Trubisky was able to handle it and process it (knowing where guys will be). I think Nagy shifted away from single reads as the season went along.

Also, I really feel like Trubisky's reading defenses thing is also a little exaggerated. If he had so many bad reads, most of his mistakes or INTs would show that, but they didnt.

Check out Trubisky's interceptions from 2018:

1. SEA, deep sideline pass, underthrow (bad pass)
2. SEA, balled tipped
3. ARZ, balled tipped
4. MIA, deep middle, (bad read from video) 
5. NE, scramble play (bad pass)
6. NE, deep pass, great one-handed play by defender (bad pass)
7. BUF, wrong route, no offensive player within 10 yards (miscommunication or bad pass)
8. MIN, should have been pass interference on defense (good pass, bad call)
9. MIN, wrong route (miscommunication or bad pass)
10. LAR, terrible pass, overthrow by 10 feet (bad pass)
11. LAR, an out, defender undercut it, (bad pass, maybe a bad read too)
12. LAR, overthrow (bad pass)

So out of 12 interceptions, the only clear misread was the one in the video (vs MIA). Maybe the 2nd one vs LAR was too, but not many more. So I think the whole Trubisky can't read defenses things was a little overblown. Most of his INTs were due to bad passes (mainly over or under throws). 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

7 hours ago, adam said:

Really good video, but I will say the pre-snap read is overrated if you just care about zone vs man. 

Just because a defender does or does not follow an offensive player doesn't automatically mean they are in a zone or man scheme. Defenses show something pre-snap (like man) and drop into zone after the snap all the time. Also, individual defenders can be in man (top DB following top WR) while the rest of the defense is in zone.

The big takeaway is the safety positioning. When a Safety intercepts a pass, it is almost always a bad read. If any other defender does, it is normally is a bad pass.

I always felt that some of Trubisky's issues dealt with the play calls themselves. I have seen plays where all the receivers seemed to have the same progression, instead of short, intermediate, long, dump off options. They all seemed to be the same. That changed at some point in the season, maybe when Trubisky was able to handle it and process it (knowing where guys will be). I think Nagy shifted away from single reads as the season went along.

Also, I really feel like Trubisky's reading defenses thing is also a little exaggerated. If he had so many bad reads, most of his mistakes or INTs would show that, but they didn't. So I think the whole Trubisky can't read defenses things was a little overblown. Most of his INTs were due to bad passes (mainly over or under throws). 

(EDITED FOR CONTENT)  The video, as simplistic as it is, illustrates to the viewer one of the many challenges a QB has to process.  This just illustrates the 'pre-read' and not what the QB does after the hike of the ball and all the craziness that goes on there.  I think it fair to assume that with the limited starter time at the college level and last year's preseason (almost none), Trubkisky simply lacks experience.  What I would be interested in seeing is how he would have handled one of those Gruden Grinder segments (or whatever he called it where he sat with college QB's pre-draft and broke down plays to get their understanding of NFL level systems). The level that Trubisky is at now is no where near where someone like Romo is; I mean listen to the guy on any broadcast and you can hear he knows what he's talking about. But that's expected after all the years of experience he's had.  

We don't know what is going on behind closed doors.  When you mention that you think Nagy "shifted away from single reads"  tells me that Trubisky wasn't expected to process a lot early on because he "(couldn't) read defenses" and had difficulty with the "play calls themselves".  The one play at the beginning of the video showed an improvisation on Trubsky's part.  And although it was a successful play, it was improvised due to Trubisky's inability to properly decipher what the defense was showing.  When I see Trubisky start to scramble, I don't always get the feeling he knew where the defense was going to line up beforehand.  Those plays should also count towards the number of plays where he may not have been able to properly read the defense, not just the INTs.  

[adam]

Compare to Mahomes' INTs, of his 12 INTs, he had at least 3 bad reads, and some other terrible throws. Oddly enough, very similar to Trubisky's.

1. BAL - Under pressure, just throws it up (bad throw)
2. CLE - Under pressure, long INT at end of half (bad throw)
3. LAR - Lazy form, throws right to defender (bad throw)
4. LAR - Arm hit 
5. LAR - Under pressure, long throw, underthrow (bad throw)
6. CIN - Throws into triple coverage (bad throw/read)
7. DEN - Overthrow (bad throw)
8. NE - Throws right into LB (bad read)
9. NE - Under pressure, throws into triple coverage in end zone (bad read)
10 JAX - Terrible overthrow (bad throw)
11. JAX - late throw (bad throw)
12. OAK - deep underthrow (bad throw)

 

 

[adam]

53 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

(EDITED FOR CONTENT)  The video, as simplistic as it is, illustrates to the viewer one of the many challenges a QB has to process.  This just illustrates the 'pre-read' and not what the QB does after the hike of the ball and all the craziness that goes on there.  I think it fair to assume that with the limited starter time at the college level and last year's preseason (almost none), Trubkisky simply lacks experience.  What I would be interested in seeing is how he would have handled one of those Gruden Grinder segments (or whatever he called it where he sat with college QB's pre-draft and broke down plays to get their understanding of NFL level systems). The level that Trubisky is at now is no where near where someone like Romo is; I mean listen to the guy on any broadcast and you can hear he knows what he's talking about. But that's expected after all the years of experience he's had.  

We don't know what is going on behind closed doors.  When you mention that you think Nagy "shifted away from single reads"  tells me that Trubisky wasn't expected to process a lot early on because he "(couldn't) read defenses" and had difficulty with the "play calls themselves".  The one play at the beginning of the video showed an improvisation on Trubsky's part.  And although it was a successful play, it was improvised due to Trubisky's inability to properly decipher what the defense was showing.  When I see Trubisky start to scramble, I don't always get the feeling he knew where the defense was going to line up beforehand.  Those plays should also count towards the number of plays where he may not have been able to properly read the defense, not just the INTs.  

Alaska, on a few of his scrambles, there was nowhere to throw the ball. Sometimes the defense gets it right and has everyone covered. On a few he missed an open guy, but we don't know what his progression was on that play. 

Either way, he seems to get flak for doing things that other more seasoned QBs do, or in this case, Mahomes had very similar mistakes but doesn't get the criticism like Mitch does.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, adam said:

, but we don't know what his progression was on that play. 

Either way, he seems to get flak for doing things that other more seasoned QBs do, or in this case, Mahomes had very similar mistakes but doesn't get the criticism like Mitch does.

Exactly.  

If Trubisky were to throw 50 TDs and over 5,000 yards in one season (and keep his INTs where they are) he might get less flak. 

[AZ54]

3 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Exactly.  

If Trubisky were to throw 50 TDs and over 5,000 yards in one season (and keep his INTs where they are) he might get less flak. 

Were you looking for this?

https://www.cleveland.com/browns/2017/03/jon_gruden_believes_mitch_trub.html

[Alaskan Grizzly]

4 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Were you looking for this?

https://www.cleveland.com/browns/2017/03/jon_gruden_believes_mitch_trub.html

Yeah thats it; not sure where I got Grudens Grinders from. Think that was a shtick of his on when he was broadcasting.  Anyhow...

Seems pretty vanilla in his praise, except for the interesting comment he made:  “I got kicked out of the league because I had a hard time sustaining at the quarterback position”.  Otherwise he was pretty optimistic about Mitch’s learning ability.  Which I don’t doubt.  I’m hoping for good things and maybe we’ll see a little bit of it tomorrow, if only for a play or two.  

 

[Stinger226]

He is playing the best D in the league in practice, I would say some of the best QBs in the league would struggle everyday in that situation. He will not deliver Mahones stats but he will be over 4000 yards, 32 TDs, 12 ints. Ill take that.