QB Hell

[adam]

Are we still in QB Purgatory?

This is Year #3.  Trubisky is 25 yrs old, a year older than Watson and Mahomes. At this point, the lack of college reps is a moot point. He has the most NFL game experience of the 3. So that should make up for any lack of reps he had in college compared to the other two. 

Are we back at a place where we have a "he is what he is" QB? Grossman/Cutler, etc. From watching the game again from the All-22, there are just too many plays left on the field by Trubisky. I don't know the play call or the progression (either does PFF), but Trubisky is not passing the eyeball test. I don't know how he can't see wide-open receivers, or guys running to huge open spaces. It's like his brain is buffering for a split second right when he should pass, then when it catches up, it's too late. I will try to take some screenshots and post examples this week.

I am sure some of this is bad play calling, but how many times does Trubisky need to be defended with another excuse? First, it was the terrible coaching staff (Fox and Co), so they were changed to a more QB friendly group. He had no weapons, so the team got stacked to the gills with WR's and RB's that can catch. The O-Line was inconsistent, so they locked up the starting 5. What else is left? Now it's the play calling, and I agree to an extent, but at some point the team needs to make Mitch accountable. It's nice to point at yourself as the HC, but if you are not the problem, pointing at yourself won't fix the true problem. My concern is I think Nagy and Co realize what they have in Mitch and after that meeting, had to dumb down the offense for Mitch. Nagy even alluded to something similar but said they were narrowing the playbook down to the bread and butter plays. Where were those on Thursday?

Going back to his Draft Profile feels like I am reading a GB game review. These are taken right from NFL.com:

1. "Inconsistent deep ball touch" - How many times has this been an issue? How can this not be fixed after 3 years? Run the same play over and over hundreds of times until he makes the throw consistently. He needs the muscle memory.

2. "Has touchdown opportunities he babies and invites defenders time to recover". - Amos interception anyone? RZ INT against MIA last year? He still does this 3+ years after this was written. Scary.

3. "Not always pocket aware. Hyper-focuses on shifting parts down the field and can be late to feel pressure collapsing the edges". - 5 sacks. I kept asking myself, why didn't he step up earlier, slide to his left or right. It seems like he rarely feels the pressure. In other cases, he leaves too early. 

4. "There are times he looks like another Carson Wentz and then there are times he looks like Blaine Gabbert". - I laughed at this one. This sounds like Blake Bortles and Trubisky really does play like these guys.

5. "He better get better at seeing blitzes and throwing hot or he'll get eaten alive by the exotic packages they are throwing at quarterbacks these days" - Another wow one. Look back at all his bad games. All teams need to do is have random defenders show blitz and have different players drop into coverage. He will be lost. He doesn't know where to go with the ball when things don't go as planned. This is not good. 

I will give him the benefit of the doubt until the bye week, but at that point, if there isn't improvement by him to the point where he is playing better than he did last year, then the team really needs to consider going in a different direction at QB. This defense is too special to waste years of mediocre offense on. I have tried to give Trubisky as much time as possible to improve, and I have yet to see it on the field. There were some media reports out of the Tribune that said they believed he regressed and looked worse this offseason than he did a year ago. If that is true, again, that is crazy. How can he regress in the same offense with basically the same WR and TE Corps? How are him and guys like Arob, Gabriel, and Miller not locked in on every route by now? Arob seems the closest, but he still missed him a few times.

I had a wild theory that the Bears were purposely masking their playbook with plays they don't normally use, against GB, so Vic would have no tape on the plays they will run against him. For some reason that almost feels possible considering how bad they looked. That is why things seemed so out of sync, because they were running new plays. Now they go into DEN and Vic will be preparing for the plays and formations they saw against GB (and the ones Vic saw last year), except we have an entire new set of plays and formations (our bread and butter plays) to unleash. One could only hope, right?

I really hope to see a massive improvement, even against a tough defense like DEN. We should be able to exceed what OAK does by a large margin, so that will be a good measuring stick. I am still optimistically hopeful, but that is fading fast to pessimistically hopeful. 

/RANT

[Mongo3451]

The Amos INT was actually a perfectly placed ball.  I watched that play over and over.  The receiver got caught up and couldn't get upright to make a play.  But the ball was exactly where it needed to be.  The Rodgers touchdown was the exact opposite, in which the defender got his feet on the wrong position and couldn't make a play.

Both throws were ill advised with opposite results.  And the difference in the game.  If our receiver doesn't stumble, we would be talking about Mitch's brass balls.

[Bill]

2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

The Amos INT was actually a perfectly placed ball.  I watched that play over and over.  The receiver got caught up and couldn't get upright to make a play.  But the ball was exactly where it needed to be.  The Rodgers touchdown was the exact opposite, in which the defender got his feet on the wrong position and couldn't make a play.

Both throws were ill advised with opposite results.  And the difference in the game.  If our receiver doesn't stumble, we would be talking about Mitch's brass balls.

I agree the ball to Robinson is a throw I would hope Mitch takes every time. Considering the game and time.  It was a 50-50 throw to a receiver that should make that play more times than not..  It looked like Robinson slipped or did something.

 

But it is time for them to start drafting a QB every year.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

5 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

 

DP

[Alaskan Grizzly]

5 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

The Amos INT was actually a perfectly placed ball.  I watched that play over and over.  The receiver got caught up and couldn't get upright to make a play.  But the ball was exactly where it needed to be.  The Rodgers touchdown was the exact opposite, in which the defender got his feet on the wrong position and couldn't make a play.

Both throws were ill advised with opposite results.  And the difference in the game.  If our receiver doesn't stumble, we would be talking about Mitch's brass balls.

Trubisky threw into double coverage, with a single receiver.  Rodgers did too except there were two receivers right next to each other, which by itself is an issue.  You could tell with Rodgers his was more a ‘what the heck, why not throw’.   And Jimmy Graham made the play due to his b-ball background.  

The thing of it, Rodgers has done this countless times and won.  Trubisky has tried a few times and failed, like he did Thursday...and almost a few other times during that game.  

[NAMEDSONPAYTON2]

Every one of his passes were telegraphed except for 3 of them and only one pump. I see him getting the snap and ONLY looking at the receiver whom he threw to. We were never down by more than 7 points and HE THREW 45 TIMES AND WE RAN IT ONLY 15 TIMESSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSS???????????????????????

[adam]

First read every time? This can't be true. 

[BearFan PHX]

I'm not ready to give up on Trubisky, but it should be said that Nagy wasn't part of the team when Pace chose him. Nagy's team took Mahomes.

[adam]

16 hours ago, BearFan NYC said:

I'm not ready to give up on Trubisky, but it should be said that Nagy wasn't part of the team when Pace chose him. Nagy's team took Mahomes.

I'm not yet, but getting close. How many more games/seasons can we go with another excuse or reason why he is underperforming? And the player Mahomes replaced was a mobile game manager who was good at short to intermediate passes. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

2 hours ago, adam said:

I'm not yet, but getting close. How many more games/seasons can we go with another excuse or reason why he is underperforming? And the player Mahomes replaced was a mobile game manager who was good at short to intermediate passes. 

It is frustrating for sure.  Good Rex... Jay...Mitch, Bad Rex, Jay, Mitch.  One,  he is not as bad as Thursday and two, he will never be Pat.  What they need is for him to understand the game and yet he is a ways off.  I think he spent the offseason learning the plays but not seeing how they play out with the NFL speed.  At least they have an option on him because this version won't make it to year 5 unless he learns quick. We will be back to signing a vet or trading draft capital bc we want to win now.

[AZ54]

2 hours ago, adam said:

I'm not yet, but getting close. How many more games/seasons can we go with another excuse or reason why he is underperforming? And the player Mahomes replaced was a mobile game manager who was good at short to intermediate passes. 

Trubisky would benefit a lot from being more like Alex Smith and hitting the checkdowns quicker when it's the right read.  At times he's too locked in on the TD-to-checkdown philosophy and when the offense had stalled he drifted back into his old habit of trying too hard to make the big play. 

That said, I've read a few analyses of the game and he was not as bad and is made out to be.  He wasn't great either but his teammates and HC too often didn't help him.  There are some odd things being said like the Packers' DB who said they wanted Trubisky to throw.  That's BS and it doesn't fit the reality of the fact they stayed in a dime defense all game, which is what you do when you want to stop the pass.  That means they felt Nagy couldn't or wouldn't run the ball on them.   We expected to see more of the new RBs and they were right.    Overall the entire offense played poorly except for ARob.  

 

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Saw this analysis put up after the game (below).  Pretty fair I would say, all things considered.  Talks about 'Trubisky trying to do too much' but also shows how he locks on one player and misses players on drag, crossing  or flat routes; aka routes set up to help him.

 

 

[AZ54]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1084&v=c_e4nkDaj-4

 

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1084&v=c_e4nkDaj-4

 

 

Link broke?  

[BearFan PHX]

10 hours ago, adam said:

I'm not yet, but getting close. How many more games/seasons can we go with another excuse or reason why he is underperforming? And the player Mahomes replaced was a mobile game manager who was good at short to intermediate passes. 

Well, he has this season, and then in the off-season, they will make a decision. Whether you come to a decision earlier or not, there not much you can do about it until then anyway.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

14 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Trubisky would benefit a lot from being more like Alex Smith and hitting the checkdowns quicker when it's the right read.  At times he's too locked in on the TD-to-checkdown philosophy and when the offense had stalled he drifted back into his old habit of trying too hard to make the big play. 

That said, I've read a few analyses of the game and he was not as bad and is made out to be.  He wasn't great either but his teammates and HC too often didn't help him.  There are some odd things being said like the Packers' DB who said they wanted Trubisky to throw.  That's BS and it doesn't fit the reality of the fact they stayed in a dime defense all game, which is what you do when you want to stop the pass.  That means they felt Nagy couldn't or wouldn't run the ball on them.   We expected to see more of the new RBs and they were right.    Overall the entire offense played poorly except for ARob.  

 

 

I actually think the quote about they wanted Trubisky to throw was more related to the fact that they wanted to keep him in the pocket and beat him as a pocket passer and not let his legs and athleticism be what beat them. I think it came off as a total knock about him being a crappy passer and that they couldn't do anything else and was more to the fact that they know he can be dangerous but it is ability to create with his feet and other things that combined with his passing skills make him at least an average QB. You take away that aspect and you get rid of some of his fall-back options that can help counter the fact that he isn't yet a super quick decision maker, etc. 

I do agree with you that he wasn't nearly as bad as advertised and the game plan & poor blocking were terrible. He made some good throws where wideouts just couldn't quite get feet in bounds as well as that one throw to Mike Davis that could have been a TD (had he not got hit).  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

17 hours ago, adam said:

I'm not yet, but getting close. How many more games/seasons can we go with another excuse or reason why he is underperforming? And the player Mahomes replaced was a mobile game manager who was good at short to intermediate passes. 

I still go back to, it was one game. I saw a lot of very good QBs have lousy to bad games this past week.  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

Tom Brady had 3 games with zero TD's in his 3rd season and 4 games with 1 TD. He also had 6 games where he threw as many picks as he had TD's.  His single worst game that season, he went 14-29 with 0 TD and 1 INT with 134 YDS. That game was following up a game where he threw for 133 YDS.  Said another way, in Tom Brady's 3rd season, he threw for less than 140 yards in 2 of 3 games that season (with 1 TD and 2 INTs). In Tom Brady's fourth season, he had a 0 TD and 4 INT opening week performance where he threw for 123 yards.  

What if people overreacted to Tom Brady and managed him on a day to day and week to week basis? Would he ever have even gotten a chance to become a GOAT.  I am not saying that Trubisky is going to be the next Tom Brady and he very well could be the next Blake Bortles, but you got to give him time to prove it out. My gut says he's not much different than Mariotta, but I could be wrong and there are plenty of times where I see Mitch make special throws. Whether he actually has that it factor and the game slows down super crazy, I don't know, but he is who we have and we need to put everything into getting everything we can out of him.  

[madlithuanian]

At this point, it is what it is.  

1.  The verdict still isn't out.  We've seen flashes of great and flashes of bad.  What is consistent is inconsistency.  With that, the coaching staff (um...Nagy) needs to fine tune the game to his strengths.  Make it easy for him to succeed.  The coaches, the line, and receivers other than ARob didn't do that last game.  He's still green.  Sure, by most counts, a QB should get it by year 3.  But, Tru has some caveats.  He barely had time at school and his year one was a virtual waste under Fox.  I kind of see him at year 2 right now.  I was hoping for more, but I think it is just that.  His real game will show next season.  

2.  Maybe pre-season matters.  2 years in a row, we look ill prepared out of the gate.  I get the trade off.  Injury v preparedness.  Right now, Nagy is gambling that losing game 1 is better than potentially having an injury.  Let's see what he does next year.

2.  Pining about what could have been is a fools errand and meant for PS4 Madden football.  Go nuts in a video game using Watson, Mahomes or Montana for that matter.  We drafted Mitch.  By all counts, he and Watson were the guys to get.  Maybe we picked wrong.  Pining over what we missed is dumb as paint.  If we don't like Mitch, let's look forward and see who we can draft.  Which leads me to...

3.  Start drafting QB's regularly now Pace.  Yeah, we were behind the 8 ball on number of picks.  Our cupboard was bare.  It's not any more.  So now, it's time to move from Daniel after this season and get a legit back-up w/ some potential for more.  And if somehow a stud drops to us...it's worth the gamble.  Maybe it lights a fire under Mitch at worst...

I;m giving the guy a chance.  He's the best we have and what's on the street is trash.  It's just up to the coaches to work with what he can deliver, all the while trying to grow him.  It's not an easy task.  But, these coaches are making McD's wages...

I have faith.  But, I am concerned.  Let's see what things look like on Sunday.  Bear the F Down!

 

[adam]

 

 

 

1

6 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Tom Brady had 3 games with zero TD's in his 3rd season and 4 games with 1 TD. He also had 6 games where he threw as many picks as he had TD's.  His single worst game that season, he went 14-29 with 0 TD and 1 INT with 134 YDS. That game was following up a game where he threw for 133 YDS.  Said another way, in Tom Brady's 3rd season, he threw for less than 140 yards in 2 of 3 games that season (with 1 TD and 2 INTs). In Tom Brady's fourth season, he had a 0 TD and 4 INT opening week performance where he threw for 123 yards.  

What if people overreacted to Tom Brady and managed him on a day to day and week to week basis? Would he ever have even gotten a chance to become a GOAT.  I am not saying that Trubisky is going to be the next Tom Brady and he very well could be the next Blake Bortles, but you got to give him time to prove it out. My gut says he's not much different than Mariotta, but I could be wrong and there are plenty of times where I see Mitch make special throws. Whether he actually has that it factor and the game slows down super crazy, I don't know, but he is who we have and we need to put everything into getting everything we can out of him.  

Yeah wow, I never really looked at Brady's stats. I know for the first few years, he was definitely more of a game manager, but I forgot how much. Check this out:

I looked back at Brady's numbers from 2001-2006 (Year 2 - Year 7) and his numbers are very pedestrian:

2001-2006 (93 games - started w/ more than 10 attempts):
Games with less than 200 yards passing: 29 (31.2% of games)
Games with less than 228 yards or less: 46 (49.5% of games)
Games without a TD: 20 (21.5%)
Games with rating under 70: 20 (21.5%)
Games with more INTs than TDs: 16 (17.2%)
 
300-yard passing games: 15 (16.1%)
Games with more TD's than INTs: 48 (51.6%)
Games with rating over 100: 34 (36.6%)

So in Brady's first 7 seasons in the NFL, he had more games without a TD than he had 300-yard games. Basically half his games, he passed for 228 or less. That is pretty crazy.

Now we are in a different era, Brady was a 6th round pick (not the #2 pick) on a ridiculously talented team with arguably the best HC in all of pro sports. So Brady's numbers do give you some hope for Mitch. I am starting to think that he really needs some preseason reps.

I am hoping for a rebound game. Vic is going to know how to pressure Mitch, so Nagy is going to have to do his best to get the ball out of his hands fast, or have an outlet. I didn't see that last week.

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, adam said:

...or have an outlet. I didn't see that last week.

 

They were there.  Just not used. 

[adam]

17 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

They were there.  Just not used. 

Oh he missed some open throws, but I was looking more for RB's in the flat or slipping out of the backfield after blocking. I didn't see that very often but I would have to go back and rewatch that abortion. 

[BearFan PHX]

23 minutes ago, adam said:

Oh he missed some open throws, but I was looking more for RB's in the flat or slipping out of the backfield after blocking. I didn't see that very often but I would have to go back and rewatch that abortion. 

Hey Adam, if you watch the video Grizzly posted above, you'll see that the play calling was sound. There were many potentially successful options. #10 just didn't find them.

[AZ54]

21 hours ago, AZ54 said:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=1084&v=c_e4nkDaj-4

 

 

Try this one

 

 

 

[AZ54]

56 minutes ago, BearFan NYC said:

Hey Adam, if you watch the video Grizzly posted above, you'll see that the play calling was sound. There were many potentially successful options. #10 just didn't find them.

Much of this depends on which plays you choose to highlight.  YOu can easily make a highlight film showing all of Trubisky's bad plays and think that's it.  You can make a video just as long showing all the Oline issues that is equally convincing.  Or you can make a video of all our running plays that is really short.