Bears at Redskins - Week 3 - Official Game Thread (Mon, Sep 23rd, 7:15 PM CT/ESPN/Bears -4, O/U 41.5)

[adam]

This will be a good game. The Redskins are improved but I don't think they are at the Bears level. This is a must-win because we are the better team. We can't afford to lose in the weak part of the schedule. We were great against the spread last year, and now we are 0-2, so just based on trends and odds, we are due to win one ATS. So I am thinking Bears 20-13, with Pineiro getting 2 more FGs and the Redskins get a late TD and a failed onside kick to give us the W.

Keenum is 2-0 against the Bears, with 2 wins in 2017 with MIN. In those games he was very efficient, but with very little yards (140 and 189). He doesn't have the supporting cast like he had in MIN, so this will be a favorable matchup for the Bears. He is 5-0 TD/INT, so he is also due an INT.

With Guice hurt, they are using AP and Thompson, and neither of them have had very many yards. This team is very one dimensional with the pass. Keenum has only been sacked twice (once per game). I think we get to him 3 times. 

One odd schedule note, this will be the second week in a row that we have extra rest (THU > SUN, and now SUN to MON). The extra rest helps us with the travel for road games. The defense should be well-rested and now conditioned better for the end of the game. 

The Redskins Defense is dead last in yards allowed per drive (47.5) and TOP/Dr at 3:46. Their defense has been worse than Miami's, which is borderline impossible considering who Miami played. No excuse for Trubisky and the offense not to dominate. 

Our offense in comparison is 29th in yards per drive at 22.91 and 22nd in TOP/Dr at 2:33.

On the flip side, the Redskins offense is 15th with 32.94 yds/Dr and is 14th in TOP/Dr at 2:53.

Our defense is 11th in yds at 28.29 Yds/Dr and 18th in TOP/Dr at 3:00. I think part of our TOP/Dr was not getting off late against DEN.

Just simply averaging these together we get the following:

Bears O vs Redskins D - 35.2 Yds/Dr - 3:10 TOP/Dr
Redskins O vs Bears D - 30.6 Yds/Dr - 2:57 TOP/Dr

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

The fact that Keenum is 2-0 against the Bears is concerning, but this isn’t Minnesota.  I suspect we’ll see more of the balanced attack like last week on offense. And, for Trubiksy I have a strange suspicion this will be the Bucs ‘18 game of this year.   Probably not 6 TDs but more like 2 or 3. Oddly enough the Redskins D is suspect in the secondary and that’s with a player like Josh Norman back there.    

On the D side we’ll see more of what we have so far.  Difference from last week and this week is that they won’t be getting gassed as quick as they were in Denver.  Maybe even a Def TD?

Predict a score of something like 20-3 or 21-7

*EDIT:  ack!! I didn’t know Landon Collins was on the Redskins...yikes.  We’ll probably see him a bunch working on the run.  

[adam]

My only concern is Washington is even in bigger desperation mode than we are at 0-2. If they go to 0-3, their season is effectively over with 3 conference losses. We are the better team, and the better teams need to take care of business. 

[adam]

Game Day! After the NFCN tore up the league yesterday and now at 3-0, 2-0-1, and 2-1, this becomes a must-win.

Trubisky has struggled in the spotlight games, so I am cautiously optimistic. Not many teams running the RPO, seems like we are going to it too much. Let's stop the trickery that is fooling no one, line up, and just beat people. If we have the better team, we should be able to do that.

 

 

[Bill]

Hoping they get back to a run first mentality.  Get the off. line back on track.  Closer to Minnesota's off. then the Chiefs for awhile.  Get the running game on track and then work in some of the misdirection multiple personal groupings.  Some good old fashion Bears football.  This is a team to start building your offense on.  Don't over think things Nagy.  Like I'm someone he should listen to!  LOL

[Alaskan Grizzly]

HHCD with a pick six!!!!  Welcome back to Washington HaHa!!

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Bears are their own worst enemy.  Penalties are killing any momentum they gain, especially on defense.  Redskins should already be out of this game with no ability to produce and offense. 

[Bill]

Someone tell Nagy to stop being so goddamn cute

[Bill]

Since I'm the only one posting tonight I'll drop the N. Nancy.  Things are looking better by far.  I look forward to building on what we've seen so far tonight.  

 

DaBears

 

[Bill]

Now lets see a heavy dose of 32

 

[Mongo3451]

I'm looking forward to Trubisky getting unleashed.  At least I'm hoping that for his confidence.  That pass to Gabriel was a dime!

 

[adam]

The entire team looks way better than last week. The only thing they need to clean up is the penalties. Probably would be 42-0 if not for the penalties that either kill a drive or keep Washington's alive. On defense, you could tell they smell blood, everyone wants a chance at a sack. 

On offense, looks way more efficient and that throw from Trubisky to Gabriel might be his best pass of his career, that was a dime. Still funny to hear the announcers discounting his performance. He has 3 incompletions and 2 were drops. Offensive Line still looks like a problem. I say it is time to put Whitehair back at Center. Still too many missed assignments.

However, 28-3 far exceeds what expected for the game and it's only the half.

Gotta get the running game going, still no holes to run in. 5 rushes from RBs.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

HHCD with a pick six!!!!  Welcome back to Washington HaHa!!

X2!!!!!

[Alaskan Grizzly]

26 minutes ago, adam said:

On offense, looks way more efficient and that throw from Trubisky to Gabriel might be his best pass of his career, that was a dime. Still funny to hear the announcers discounting his performance. He has 3 incompletions and 2 were drops. Offensive Line still looks like a problem. I say it is time to put Whitehair back at Center. Still too many missed assignments.

Agree with needing Whitehair back at Center.

But... need to put Trubiskys performance in perspective.  Remember this is the 30th ranked defense he’s playing against . They came out early with him doing a heavy dose of game management plays and what appeared to be college level sideline play calling.  That meaning I got the impression the offense would line up and once they saw what the D was doing, Nagy would call in a play adjustment.  Early on I don’t think Nagy was comfortable with Trubiksy having the autonomy he needs to run the offense.  

However as the game has wore on, Trubisky has been allowed to do more (ergo that nice throw to Gabriel). Nevertheless, he’s looking more confident as the game wears on.  Which is really important as they start get ready to play better caliber teams. 

 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Little worried after tonights game. They balled out early on and we paid a price with some injuries.  Glad to go home with a W but Minny is going to be a tough one at home next week. Trubisky can hold his head up in the presser for once.  Give him credit, he did better. 

[adam]

Crazy to win 31-15 and feel dissatisfied lol. Tale of two halves. A dominating first half 28-3, then got outscored 12-3 with the Redskins missing some 2-pt conversions in the 2nd half. Lead didn't feel safe until we kicked the late FG.

Positives - Defense had 4 sacks, 2 Fumbles, and 3 Interceptions. Montgomery is legit, they need to give him the ball in more space or at least attempt to block for him. Gabriel had himself a game, and that TD catch was amazing. HHCD showed up big time with 2 huge picks.

Negatives - Offensive Line is still a huge problem. Is Helfrich the problem? I don't know what is going on. Penalties, missed assignments, no running holes is getting old. Trubisky looked great for about 85% of the game, but I have no clue what the hell happened on that Red Zone INT. It came after a timeout on a 2nd and 3. Why not run the ball there, where is the draw play? Come on Nagy! Our CBs are a weakness on the defense and would be exposed without a pass rush. Fuller looks like crap, Prince is a penalty machine, and Skrine can't cover anyone. They had an ugly game. I don't understand them playing 10 yards off on a 3rd and 5. We will get torched by Minnesota if we do that.

Game Balls: HHCD (9 tackles, 2 INT, 1 TD), Gabriel (6-75yds, 3 TD), Montgomery (13-67yds, 3-14yds), Trevathan (7 tackles, 1 Forced Fumble, 1 PD), and Mack (2 sacks, 1 Forced Fumble). 

[Stinger226]

I have flown a hundred times and never had live sports on a plane.  The bears game was on my flight home. ANA  a Japanese airline.  The screen was 13 x 10. I lucked out.  Plus they won. 

[Bill]

7 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I have flown a hundred times and never had live sports on a plane.  The bears game was on my flight home. ANA  a Japanese airline.  The screen was 13 x 10. I lucked out.  Plus they won. 

Can't ask for anything better than that.  I sat on my but at home and don't think I have been more depressed after a much needed win.

[Bears4Ever_34]

The Bears rarely ever make it look easy. Without Keenum's boneheaded play late in the game that caused a fumble, that most likely would have turned into a 1 score game with over 7 minutes left in the 4th quarter. The Bears defense, once again forgot how to play football in the 2nd half, and it seems to be a reoccurring theme that they start allowing these big cushions to receivers while they gash the defense for 15-20-25 yard plays on every pass attempt until they are in the redzone. I didn't like what I saw from either side of the ball in the 2nd half, and that definitely dampens the mood after what should have been a complete curb stomping after the way the Redskins played to start the game. 

Mitch had his best game of the season, which should have been expected against a terrible opponent. He wasn't very sharp all night, even on the throws that he completed I thought his ball placement wasn't very good. His best throw of the day was the last TD to Gabriel. Those are the kinds of plays we need to see more of. He did a tremendous job slithering his way through the pocket and throwing on the run to a guy downfield. I think all of his touchdown throws were outside the pocket, which should tell you something if you're Matt Nagy: He's good at throwing on the run--call more plays like that.

The biggest thing this win does is that it buys more time for the offense to figure things out. Next week isn't a must win, but it's pretty close. The NFC North looks like it's shaping up to be the toughest division in football after every team won this week, and the Bears are still sitting in last place, despite being 2-1. They need to keep pace with everyone else, and the easiest way to ensure that is to beat your division opponents. 

The injuries to Hicks and Piniero could be huge for the game next week, especially with Dalvin Cook and that zone run blocking scheme the Vikings run with now. Hicks is the Bears best defensive run stopper, and not having him out there might be exactly what the Vikings need to continue running as effectively as they have been all year. That concerns me greatly. The Piniero injury also is a major concern, because he can't kick outside of XP range right now, and injuries to your nerves take a long time to heal. I really hope it's not something that lingers far into the season, because the Bears will not be able to survive very long if they have to get inside the 30 for every FG attempt. 

All in all, they won, and that's a good thing, but there's still a lot they need to improve on in order to take back control of the division. A win next week would be huge, especially going into a game against Oakland (who they should beat). 

[Stinger226]

Teams do not run well against us, and hopefully Hicks plays. We had 10 more points sitting there with Pinero misssing a makable FG and MT throwing an int. at the end zone. So I dont think it was looking that bad. I do think the OL is still a problem.

[AZ54]

Great win, but it was costly.  Gabriel I think had a concussion and Hicks left with a knee injury and a walking boot on his ankle.   

Maybe it was just my impression but did we see a return to Fox-ball (run-run-pass) in the 2nd half?  If Montgomery ever gets a running lane he'll be known around the league.  I'm not putting him in the same level but I honestly have not seen a Bears RB do that well with that much poor blocking since I watched Payton.    

The hate for Trubisky is literally off the charts even after completing 80% of his passes and a 116 passer rating.  You know that happened only because he was on the road against Washington, on MNF where he always come up short, and you know it was  because his Oline was playing great along with a strong complementary running game like Prescott had a week earlier. 

Comparatively speaking I wish the Oline could play as poorly as Mitch has, and I include all 3 games in that.  In the first half fans were complaining about 3 missed passes.  Fans are now watching to see if ANY pass is slightly off target and saying he's inaccurate.  Yet they have no clue what the receiver is supposed to do after the cut, nor even how consistently the receiver runs that route against that coverage.  This is on a completion.  

For years after his career was over Terry Bradshaw refused to go back to Pittsburgh.  I understand why now.  All the noise clearly got into Trubisky's head and he hadn't played well in two games.  He started out shaky too against Wash.  After all the years of struggles we might be happy but we're not willing to give him some time to get back on track.  The internet has produced closet QB experts everywhere and they all know exactly what was supposed to happen and how they would have thrown the ball.  I have no idea which way Trubisky's career arc will take him.  He might melt under the pressure and flame out completely, or he might take off.   

Now the real question is why isn't anyone asking to bench Kyle Long?   I'm a big fan of his but to be honest he can't play much worse than what he's done so far.  Yet we get this:

https://www.pff.com/news/pro-pff-nfl-offensive-line-rankings-following-week-3-of-the-2019-nfl-season?utm_source=PFF+Newsletter&utm_campaign=e0cbf313ad-EMAIL_CAMPAIGN_2019_09_24_QB_and_oline_ranks&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_ae3f4210bf-e0cbf313ad-191301673

 

 

 

[BearFan PHX]

PFF is crazy town. They just are. Nothing they say makes any sense at all.