Next Gen Stats

[adam]

Interesting NextGenStat posted here:

Basically Mahomes has thrown to more open receivers than anyone in the league between 2016-2018 and it's not even close. Talk about a scheme working, Andy Reid is a genius. Trubisky in the middle of the pack. Interesting to see Wentz grouped with Winston, Newton, and Bortles.  

Mahomes is the least aggressive but most productive passer. Ryan is the most aggressive/productive passer, Tannehill is the least aggressive, least productive passer, and Kizer is the most aggressive, least productive passer.

[BearFan PHX]

It means also that Mahomes is making good reads, finding the open receivers.

One thing to really not is Jay Cutler. Not only did he try to throw the ball into really tight spaces, he didnt get the statistical positive outcome of making that work often enough to show up as EPA too.

Since interceptions factor the same as completions here, one assumes Brett Favre would be all alone in the upper right corner. Very aggressive, and still getting EPAs.

[adam]

58 minutes ago, BearFan NYC said:

It means also that Mahomes is making good reads, finding the open receivers.

One thing to really not is Jay Cutler. Not only did he try to throw the ball into really tight spaces, he didnt get the statistical positive outcome of making that work often enough to show up as EPA too.

Since interceptions factor the same as completions here, one assumes Brett Favre would be all alone in the upper right corner. Very aggressive, and still getting EPAs.

I am not arguing that Mahomes is not an elite QB. However, this just shows that he is making less attempts into tight coverage than any other QB by a wide margin, but also is gaining more yards on those throws than anyone else. What this tells me is Mahomes doesn't even have to make tough throws, there is almost always someone open. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

...and he does stuff like this...

[adam]

2 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

...and he does stuff like this...

to an open receiver

[Alaskan Grizzly]

To be fair, Trubisky has open receivers. He just doesn’t see them.

[BearFan PHX]

4 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

To be fair, Trubisky has open receivers. He just doesn’t see them.

theres blame to go around, the offensive line certainly deserves its share. And playcalling has been spotty. And lets give respect to the Packers D too. Broncos too.

But nonetheless, either Trubisky thrives, or he doesnt. And thats how he will be judged.

[Bill]

As the neg. Nancy here I only see what my eyes and head see.  When I look at everything from games played over the past two years.  Press conferences, how the team talks about him, how they talk about game planning.  Now Long says we need to get back to basics.  Really?  It just does not seem like a franchise moving in the right direction when it comes to QB play.  Yea there is blame to go around with all phases of the game.  But when was the fist time he put the team on his back and won a game?  The playoff game last year was three quarters of sad play.  Had he connected on that pass before the kick we would of won outright.   They were gifted the win last week.  Every week it seems there is one excuse after the other for poor QB play.  And then yea but he made this play or that one. 

 

This week is a good chance to start making some progress in the whole team going forward.  And having Trubisky make the Tampa game last year the norm not the exception!

[BearFan PHX]

yes! This would be a good week to break out.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, Bill said:

And having Trubisky make the Tampa game last year the norm not the exception!

Right on Bill!  

[adam]

On 9/20/2019 at 8:52 PM, Bill said:

As the neg. Nancy here I only see what my eyes and head see.  When I look at everything from games played over the past two years.  Press conferences, how the team talks about him, how they talk about game planning.  Now Long says we need to get back to basics.  Really?  It just does not seem like a franchise moving in the right direction when it comes to QB play.  Yea there is blame to go around with all phases of the game.  But when was the fist time he put the team on his back and won a game?  The playoff game last year was three quarters of sad play.  Had he connected on that pass before the kick we would of won outright.   They were gifted the win last week.  Every week it seems there is one excuse after the other for poor QB play.  And then yea but he made this play or that one. 

 

This week is a good chance to start making some progress in the whole team going forward.  And having Trubisky make the Tampa game last year the norm not the exception!

This is the game, no more excuses. Washington's defense is bad. He should be able to slice and dice them up. This is the perfect get right game if there ever was one. 

There is one other factor not talked about much. We have the 30th best starting field position after two weeks (LOS at the 21). Of our 22 drives, 10 have started at the 15 or less. That is terrible. We have had 3 start beyond the 25 (1x was at the 35 near the end of the half, 1x at the 43 was the first drive against GB), and from the GB 36 where we ran 4 straight times and settled for a FG). Those last two were in the first quarter of the GB game. That means we have not had a meaningful drive in the last 7 quarters start from beyond the 25 yard line.

22 Drives
10x 1-15 (2x FGs)
2x 16-24 (1x TD)
-------------------
7x 25 (1x FG)
-------------------
1x 26-40
1x 41-50
1x Drive in opponent's territory (1x FG)

[adam]

So through 3 games, Trubisky now has a 32.0 QBR, which is lower than he had for his entire rookie year at 32.4. Last year he had a QBR of 71.0. To match that QBR for this season, he would have to average a QBR of 80.0 for the next 13 games. Of the 96 games this season by a QB, there have only been 18 games with a QBR of 80 or above. So the chance of Trubisky matching his QBR from last year is basically impossible unless he has some great games (90+) with no bad games for the remainder of the season (highly unlikely). He had 6 of those games last year so there is a glimmer of hope. 

To put into perspective, this is what Goff's QBRs look like:

2016 - 18.3
2017 - 55.7
2018 - 63.6
2019 - 38.1

Mariota
2015 - 48.4
2016 - 59.1
2017 - 58.6
2018 - 53.2
2019 - 39.2