Vikings at Bears - Week 4 - Official Game Thread (Sun, Sep 29th, 3:25 PM CT/CBS/Bears -2, O/U 38)

[adam]

Strength vs Strength. Minnesota Running Attack vs Chicago Run Defense. If Dalvin Cook goes over 100, we lose. If we can shutdown the run game, we have a great chance at creating turnovers. This is going to be an ugly game. I think it is going to be close and come down to a turnover or big special teams play.

Bears 17-13.

[AZ54]

They will do what the Packers did and cover over the top forcing Trubisky to his short reads.  They have a good enough pass rush with 4 Dline and we have a bad enough Oline for them to get early pressure often.  Might be why we just brought Sowell back.  Could be we load up with some 3 TE sets or have one of these TEs in H-back/FB position.  

[adam]

49 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

They will do what the Packers did and cover over the top forcing Trubisky to his short reads.  They have a good enough pass rush with 4 Dline and we have a bad enough Oline for them to get early pressure often.  Might be why we just brought Sowell back.  Could be we load up with some 3 TE sets or have one of these TEs in H-back/FB position.  

Speaking of the Packers, this TNF Game is really an indictment on Nagys play calling. GB getting shredded by Eagles running game in the first half.

[BearFan PHX]

32 minutes ago, adam said:

Speaking of the Packers, this TNF Game is really an indictment on Nagys play calling. GB getting shredded by Eagles running game in the first half.

or the OL...

[Alaskan Grizzly]

37 minutes ago, adam said:

Speaking of the Packers, this TNF Game is really an indictment on Nagys play calling. GB getting shredded by Eagles running game in the first half.

Beg to differ....mostly passing game that seems to be doing the job.  As a matter of fact, one passing 20 yard TD reception by former Bear Jordan Howard.  Yes that’s right ... passing reception...Jordan Howard. Oh and one running TD to boot.  Why did the Bears get rid of him again?

Running stats so far (into the 3rd quarter) show all three RBs for Philly with less than 100 yards...combined.  

[Mongo3451]

Nobody respected Howard on that pass TD and they have a rookie starting over him.  Plus Wentz hardly has any passing yards.  You are just trolling on this one...?

 

[Connorbear]

34 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Beg to differ....mostly passing game that seems to be doing the job.  As a matter of fact, one passing 20 yard TD reception by former Bear Jordan Howard.  Yes that’s right ... passing reception...Jordan Howard. Oh and one running TD to boot.  Why did the Bears get rid of him again?

Running stats so far (into the 3rd quarter) show all three RBs for Philly with less than 100 yards...combined.  

Because he doesn't fit the system. I like Howard and want him to succeed but I think Montgomery is going to be a much better player for us. 

Peace

[BearFan PHX]

They were being kind when they said Howard wasnt a great receiver.

What they didnt say was that the guy needs three stutter steps to make a cut and change direction. That is why they got rid of him.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

All trolling aside; I should’ve said their offense was more balanced with a good control of the passing game.  A fair amount of the overall rushing yards came later in the game (at least according to the radio broadcast).  

A look at Howard’s stats are interesting; he ended up the lead rusher with 87 yards (5.7 avg) and 2 TDs.  And... added 3 rec for 28 yds and another TD.  The “rookie starting ahead of him” had no receptions and 15 less yards rushing...and 0 TDs.  Jordan was targeted 4 times where the #1 WR (Jefferey) was targeted 9 times but both had the equal number of receptions at 3.  

 

[Mongo3451]

6 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

All trolling aside; I should’ve said their offense was more balanced with a good control of the passing game.  A fair amount of the overall rushing yards came later in the game (at least according to the radio broadcast).  

A look at Howard’s stats are interesting; he ended up the lead rusher with 87 yards (5.7 avg) and 2 TDs.  And... added 3 rec for 28 yds and another TD.  The “rookie starting ahead of him” had no receptions and 15 less yards rushing...and 0 TDs.  Jordan was targeted 4 times where the #1 WR (Jefferey) was targeted 9 times but both had the equal number of receptions at 3.  

 

I watched the entire game.  Howard only gained yards on holes you could drive a bus through.  The rookie made some really good runs.  The pass Howard caught for a TD, literally no-one was guarding him.  Stats can tell a huge lie.  That being said, I would've liked him on my fantasy team last night.

[adam]

10 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Beg to differ....mostly passing game that seems to be doing the job.  As a matter of fact, one passing 20 yard TD reception by former Bear Jordan Howard.  Yes that’s right ... passing reception...Jordan Howard. Oh and one running TD to boot.  Why did the Bears get rid of him again?

Running stats so far (into the 3rd quarter) show all three RBs for Philly with less than 100 yards...combined.  

If you saw the gapping holes Howard was running thru, you would see what I was talking about. It also could be another indictment on our O-Line playing terrible. Wentz didn't have to do much. They rushed more than they passed, and in this league, that is a lot of running. Rodgers passed for over 400 yards but had a fumble and a RZ INT to end the game (which was awesome). He should've had 2 more INTs that were dropped, but everyone will drool over his one or two great passes.

[adam]

Minnesota has not been a very good road team with Cousins. Since the start of 2018, MIN is 3-5-1 on the road with scoring 200-205. However, two of those games were blowout wins against lowly DET and NYJ teams (64-26 vs NYJ/DET). Against the rest of the league they are 1-5-1 on the road allowing almost 26 pts per game (136-179).

In that same stretch we are 7-2 at home with pts of 225-150 (Our two losses were against NE 38-31 and GB 10-3 in Week 1). If you take out DET and NYJ out of our wins, to make it even, we are 5-2 (167-118), basically 24-17.

Using our pts for and against vs non DET/NYJ games from last year and doing the same with MIN's, we get a Bears win of 24-17 based solely on the averages.  We beat them last year at home 25-20 and 24-10 on the road. Those average out to 24.5-15, very close to the other projections oddly enough.
 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Was just going to come back and apologize for hijacking the thread.  So I’ll stick to the theme...

After seeing last night’s game I’m having a hard time measuring how the Bears will do against Minny.  Bears lost to GB at home 3-10 and Minny lost to GB (in GB) the week  after us 16-21.  Then GB lost to Philly last night in GB.  

The game last week against Washington would indicate the Bears did great; but those of us who watched it went away unsatisfied.  The score was more a result of one half of good play and another half of crossed fingers.  Minnesota is capable especially at RB.  Cousins is an unpredictable player but has Thielen and Diggs at WR and Rudolph at TE.  The current OC Stefanski (sp?) is the most recent OC ‘up-to-bat’ after DeFillipio was let go last season.  He’s been with the Vikings since ‘06 and credited for helping Keenum to his best career year while the QB coach (remember Keenum’s 2-0 record against the Bears?).  

HC Zimmer is a defensive minded coach and a good one to boot.  Hunter is an ‘up-and-comer’ at DE and they still have Griffin on the other side who (to me) is hot/cold.  There’s Anthony “slam Rodgers to the turf” Barr at LB and Smith and Rhodes in the backfield to be concerned about.  Hard for me to predict the weakness on D.

To have a chance, I think the Bears will have to do more of the same from last week; short/intermediate passes with a fair amount of running mixed in.  The D will do it’s thing but I’m concerned about how the corners will hold up, especially Amukamura and a little bit Skrine.  This could be a close one and I see Bears either losing by 3 or winning by 7-10.   

[Stinger226]

First of all, any wins on the road is a great accomplishment, overall that is hard to do for most teams. Skrine has played well, other than Fuller has been our best DB. Having another playmaker in the DBackfield  will help against Cousins with HaHa. To note, Calahan is having surgery after not playing all year. Injuries to Hicks and Nichols are worrisome but with Mack at full speed and Goldman playing well, we will be able to stop the run for the most part. Cook 16 for 68 yards and no TDs. Pay attention to N. Williams , he can play that is why we kept him around.By the way Hunter is one of the  best DEs in the league, not sure what you mean by he is an (up and comer)?He has been around 5 years and has 40 total sacks in his first 4 seasons. The key to our offense doing well against them is having balance on offense. Adam you always do a good job with stats. 

[Stinger226]

Last year Cousins was 50-79, 394 yards, 3 TDs, 2 ints, 6 sacks in two games. I think with us being more aggressive on pressure, we force him into TOs. He had 9 fumbles and 10 ints last year. So far this year he has 4 fumbles and 2 ints. in 3 games on only 63 passing attempts. His one road game against the Packers he was sacked once with 7 pressures, had 2 int and 2 fumbles. I see him committing at least 2 TOs and being sacked 5 times.  Also he had only 43 % passing efficiency in that game on 32 atts. Cook run for 154 yards but Cousins was forced to throw because they were behind . If we get pressure on him and hold Cook under 100 yards we will win this game. 

[madlithuanian]

It's easy.  Don't give up the big play from Cook.  Pressure Cousins.  Feed Monty relentlessly.  Have Tru go downfield to Wims and A-Rob.  Also, lots of slant patterns since their LB's are suspect. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

I predict MT will run for about 80 yds with one rush TD.  The coverage will be tight if the Bears come out with the GB game plan.  Mn will zone the WRs and bait the pass.  Nagy needs to get MT rolling out often in moving RPOs with Cohen as his option.  Use him in the slot with motion and keep Monty as the RB.  This will be a nail biter, but Bears win 16-14. 

[adam]

2 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

I predict MT will run for about 80 yds with one rush TD.  The coverage will be tight if the Bears come out with the GB game plan.  Mn will zone the WRs and bait the pass.  Nagy needs to get MT rolling out often in moving RPOs with Cohen as his option.  Use him in the slot with motion and keep Monty as the RB.  This will be a nail biter, but Bears win 16-14. 

Remember he got hurt on a run by that dirty hit my Smith, so hopefully he gets down and slides when he does run. From listening to all the local beat writers podcasts, a few things seem to be coming out. One is that Nagy is basically using a different game plan every game and has yet to run the same play twice. With Gabriel out, I think Miller will have a big game. If Burton is a full go, he will also be involved a lot. The Vikings Safeties will be baiting Trubisky into throwing ill-advised passes, so we will see who wins that chess match.

[BearFan PHX]

Well we know on the throw that Amos intercepted in the end zone, we had shown that play at least three other times in the game, including 8 plays earlier, and Amos said in interviews after "we knew where the ball was going, we had JUST seen the same play from the same formation"

 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

13 hours ago, adam said:

Remember he got hurt on a run by that dirty hit my Smith, so hopefully he gets down and slides when he does run. From listening to all the local beat writers podcasts, a few things seem to be coming out. One is that Nagy is basically using a different game plan every game and has yet to run the same play twice. With Gabriel out, I think Miller will have a big game. If Burton is a full go, he will also be involved a lot. The Vikings Safeties will be baiting Trubisky into throwing ill-advised passes, so we will see who wins that chess match.

I am not necessarily saying Nagy calls on MT to run, but there will be cushions with yards to gain if he is on the move looking down field.  He has to be smart on avoiding contact but a nice run or two will soften the zone compared to when he drops back in the pocket.  

[adam]

15 hours ago, BearFan NYC said:

Well we know on the throw that Amos intercepted in the end zone, we had shown that play at least three other times in the game, including 8 plays earlier, and Amos said in interviews after "we knew where the ball was going, we had JUST seen the same play from the same formation"

 

More along the lines of from game to game. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

With Gabriel out that means a player like Wims will move up in the rotation.  Some analyst this last week pointed out a significant third down play converted by Wims late in the game against the ‘Skins.   If Trubiksy is able to be more accurate on his passes I think Wims will be more involved this time round.  I think  for the running game to be successful, the Bears need to be able to stretch the field.  ‘IF’ all this happens,  I see Wims being a large piece to this game.

https://www.chicagobears.com/video/player-profile-javon-wims

 

[adam]

One interesting thing to watch, Diggs has basically been absent from this offense. Once the deep passing game was taken out for Cook rushes, Diggs lost the most. He is the worst receiver from last year's top 10 thru 3 weeks with 6-101, 1 TD. For how bad our offense has been he would be tied for 4th in receptions with Burton and Davis, and would be our 3rd WR after Arob and Turbo in terms of receptions and yards.

Some interesting stats, we have scored 5 TDs and allowed 4 (all passing). We have 11 sacks and have allowed 8. Our 3rd Downs have been 14/39 while we have allowed only 8 for 35. However, we have allowed 5 of 6 4th Downs, which brings the number of conversions back up. We really need to fix the 4th down conversion problem on defense. 

People are making an issue out of us only beating teams that are 0-3, yet when NE does it in 3 games and it's no big deal. You can't help who you play.

 

[AZ54]

At this point the best you could do is beat a 2 win team.  

 

[adam]

2 hours ago, AZ54 said:

At this point the best you could do is beat a 2 win team.  

 

I know, it's stupid, but I have heard it a couple of times: "Bears have only beaten winless teams". Yet the Pats have 3 wins against some terrible teams, but they are the #1 team in the league. That division has made their path to the SB that much easier every year for 20 years. They go 5-1 or 6-0 in division annually, then cruise to a 6-4 or 7-3 non-division record to consistently win 11-13 games every year.