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Bears at Raiders - Week 5 - Official Game Thread (Sun, Oct 6, 12:00 PM CT/FOX/Bears -5.5, O/U 40.5)


adam

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Neutral field, even without Mitch, Akiem, Bilal, and Roquan, we should win this game. This is the Khalil and Eddy Revenge Game. Based on Mack's comments this week, he is going to be amped up for this one. I am expecting havoc from him all game and wouldn't be surprised to see him get a multi-sack effort and a bunch of pressures. 

All we need out of Chase is an average game without too many turnovers. We really need to get the running game going. 

As 5-point favorites, I will take the Bears winning 20-9 and the under. 

Using Sagarin Ratings: https://www.usatoday.com/sports/nfl/sagarin/
we are 7th and OAK is 25th.

Using FBO, https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff/2019
we are 8th and OAK is 25th.

Two totally different rating systems come up with almost the exact same rankings make the confidence level pretty high on these. 

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Odds of Kyle Long starting ....near zero and I hope he gets plenty of rest.  I think we ride with Coward at RG going forward.   He didn't have much power but he was better in pass protection than Long.  Daniel is like a sitting duck in the pocket, he doesn't shuffle around at all until he finally decides it's time to bail out completely.  I still haven't heard anything on Larsen's injury either.  He also played better than Long and I think he'll bring a little more punch in the running game.  

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Update on Trubisky is he has a dislocated left shoulder and a ‘small tear’ of his labrum.  No surgery required.  Probably out another 2 weeks?  Meaning he’ll probably be back to play week after the bye or week after that(?)

With regards to the game I hear the Mack, Pinero and to some degree RRHs showcase efforts so that may amp them up a bit.  With RRH and Mack amped then the D will probably dominate that much more than they already have. I suspect Smith will be out this week but after seeing Kwit last week (and assuming he keeps it up) I’m not too concerned . 

Offensively speaking I think the Bears are better off with Chase playing QB ... at least for now.  He just does a better job of dissecting and pre-reading the D and as someone else mentioned, ‘looking off the coverage’.  Hard to get a good read off the Raiders D but suspect running D isn’t their forte; maybe Montgomery gets close to 100 yards on the ground and another 50-60 in receiving yards?  With Burfict out at least we don’t have to worry about any cheap hits on our guys...from him anyhow.  I think they’ll have Daniel throw a good number of short and intermediate throws with a long chuck occasionally to keep the D honest.  I’m personally hoping Wims gets some more opportunity to shine.  

Carr is really the only notable player on their O but they did go on a four score tear early in last weeks game against the Colts.  However they did lose to the Vikings the week prior 34-14...so there’s that.  

Gonna go out on a limb and say Bears 30-10.

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2 hours ago, adam said:

Roquan will play. Long said he is a go. So right now it is Trubisky and Hicks as the two major injuries. 

I would like to see another week without Long. I dont wish him bad health, I'd just like to see how they are with Larsen and/or Coward in there.

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1 hour ago, BearFan NYC said:

I would like to see another week without Long. I dont wish him bad health, I'd just like to see how they are with Larsen and/or Coward in there.

I agree, with the bye the following week, it would nice to get him to 100% with 3 weeks off. Same for Hicks. We need the depth from NOV-FEB.

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On a side note, I feel like Mack is going to be extra motivated and Pagano is going to move him around to allow him to attack. I think he will have a multi-sack game, forced fumble, and few TFLs. I also think Nagy will put him in on a goal-line play (if they get there), which I don't really like, but we have yet to see one of those this year. I think this is where Nagy pulls some of the tricks out of the bag. Speaking of tricks, I would love to see a flea-flicker play that includes Burton making a throw. 

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Raiders Injury Report:

Pos.    Player            Injury        Wednesday    
DE    Clelin Ferrell        Concussion    Did not part.            
WR/RS    Dwayne Harris        Ankle        Limited            
RB    Josh Jacobs        Elbow        Limited            
G    Gabe Jackson        Knee        Did not part.            
WR    J.J. Nelson        Knee        Limited            
RB    DeAndré Washington    Ankle        Limited            
WR    Tyrell Williams        Foot        Did not part.    

Raiders may be without Ferrell (concussion), Jackson (Knee), and Williams (Foot), and Jacobs was limited. Ferrell being out would be huge for our offense. He was their best pass rusher.  If Williams misses the game, then the passing threat would be limited to their TE. With Jackson out, their line will be vulnerable.

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On the flip side, Gabriel (concussion), Hicks (knee), Iggy (Hamstring), Larsen (knee), Nichols (hand), Trubisky (shoulder) all are likely to miss the game.

Wims will get more PT, which is great. I really like him and think he can become a WR2 and maybe even a fringe WR1. Hicks and Nichols still out, so nothing new there. Iggy is new, which puts more emphasis on Kwit covering down on Special Teams. Larsen out, but Long back in with Coward as the super sub. 

Pineiro, Burton, and Smith all full go's. 

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Some funny comments from Raiders fans about Mack: https://www.silverandblackpride.com/2019/10/1/20894495/mack-wants-the-raiders-pay-for-trading-him and here: https://www.silverandblackpride.com/2019/10/1/20893307/silver-mining-10-1-khalil-mack-says-hes-been-looking-forward-to-game-against-raiders

Some still don't like the trade, and others think they won hands down and hate Mack for leaving. Kind of funny to see it from their side.

There is no way you can say the Raiders won that trade. You don't trade a generational talent in their prime. We should draft in the bottom 12 of the league (playoff team) and the Raiders should end up in the top 12 (right now they are projected to be 9th). So we will be swapping our mid-20's-low 30's (hopefully Pick #32) for their pick in the late 30's to early 40's. It might be less than 10 slots. 

This is what different draft values would be based off where we finish:
NFC Wild Card loss: Pick 22 (780)
NFC Divisional Round loss: Pick 26 (700)
NFC Championship Game loss: Pick 29 (640)
SB Winner: Pick 32 (590)

Raiders:
for Pick 38 - 6th worst team (520)
for Pick 44 - 12th worst team (460)

So just say we lose the WC game, our pick will be worth around 780 and if they finish as the 12th worst team (460), that 320 value equates to a late-round 2nd, meaning we really gave up a late-round 2nd this year and a 1st last year for Mack (not 2x 1s). In a best-case scenario, we win SB, Raiders are the 6th worst team (I couldn't put them lower than MIA, WAS, ARZ, CIN, and NYJ) and the difference is only 70, the equivalent to a mid-4th rounder. That is crazy if something like that occurs because the trade was alway seen as us giving up 2x 1's but in reality, by us getting that 2nd back, the trade could equate to only a 4th round value. 

 

 

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12 hours ago, adam said:

There is no way you can say the Raiders won that trade. You don't trade a generational talent in their prime.

Yeah what Chucky did last year didn’t make a lot of sense.  I thought going in the Raiders were a fringe team with Carr being a decent QB to move forward with. But with losses like Mack and Cooper I can’t help but think Gruden wanted to show everyone how smart he thinks he is.  Now the team is a shell of its former self with a bunch of future early round picks.  

In the end I’m glad Gruden did what he did; Mack came to our team and thankfully not to GB.  Can you imagine how things would look right now if he’d done that?  Yikes!!!

 

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On 10/2/2019 at 7:48 PM, adam said:

Some funny comments from Raiders fans about Mack: https://www.silverandblackpride.com/2019/10/1/20894495/mack-wants-the-raiders-pay-for-trading-him and here: https://www.silverandblackpride.com/2019/10/1/20893307/silver-mining-10-1-khalil-mack-says-hes-been-looking-forward-to-game-against-raiders

Some still don't like the trade, and others think they won hands down and hate Mack for leaving. Kind of funny to see it from their side.

There is no way you can say the Raiders won that trade. You don't trade a generational talent in their prime. We should draft in the bottom 12 of the league (playoff team) and the Raiders should end up in the top 12 (right now they are projected to be 9th). So we will be swapping our mid-20's-low 30's (hopefully Pick #32) for their pick in the late 30's to early 40's. It might be less than 10 slots. 

This is what different draft values would be based off where we finish:
NFC Wild Card loss: Pick 22 (780)
NFC Divisional Round loss: Pick 26 (700)
NFC Championship Game loss: Pick 29 (640)
SB Winner: Pick 32 (590)

Raiders:
for Pick 38 - 6th worst team (520)
for Pick 44 - 12th worst team (460)

So just say we lose the WC game, our pick will be worth around 780 and if they finish as the 12th worst team (460), that 320 value equates to a late-round 2nd, meaning we really gave up a late-round 2nd this year and a 1st last year for Mack (not 2x 1s). In a best-case scenario, we win SB, Raiders are the 6th worst team (I couldn't put them lower than MIA, WAS, ARZ, CIN, and NYJ) and the difference is only 70, the equivalent to a mid-4th rounder. That is crazy if something like that occurs because the trade was alway seen as us giving up 2x 1's but in reality, by us getting that 2nd back, the trade could equate to only a 4th round value. 

 

 

Don't forget with the money they saved on Mack they were able to sign Antonio Brown and Vontaze Burfict.   Burfict didn't cost them much of course but regardless those were the good football-character players Gruden wanted over Mack.    And they are sitting on $27mil in cap space which is really close to Mack's cap hit next season.  

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6 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Don't forget with the money they saved on Mack they were able to sign Antonio Brown and Vontaze Burfict.   Burfict didn't cost them much of course but regardless those were the good football-character players Gruden wanted over Mack.    And they are sitting on $27mil in cap space which is really close to Mack's cap hit next season.  

Damn, I never thought about that. Did they have dead money from the AB thing?

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Raiders driving down on first drive of game. CB's still playing off and Carr finding underneath receivers. Hicks just went down with an apparent left wrist injury (didn't look good, looked like a dislocated elbow). Not a good start by the defense. They look flat and a step slow.

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1 minute ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Hicks’ injury would probably send others out for several weeks but I have a sinking feeling he’ll be back sooner than later.  He’s taking a long time to go to the locker room. 

If it's a dislocated elbow, which it looked like, that is no less than a month with no weight bearing. His arms and leverage are so important inside, I don't know how effective he would be with a massive brace on.

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19 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Yeah this looks eerily similar to how the Broncos game went.  Could it be the AFC West or just that they (Bears) got to London late and weren’t ready?

It's all of the above. Late to London, injuries, game plan. 

Also, not that this is new but Nagy's playcalling has been suspect for 20 games now. 

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Just now, ASHKUM BEAR said:

This is looking like a disaster.  Not only are the Bears horrible at positions they paid guys to anchor (OL) for years, the refs seem to help the Raiders out like the hold call against Fuller. 

Yeah, our O-Line is paid like a top-10 unit and is in the bottom-10 of the league.

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