NFC North next 5 games

[adam]

Right now we sit a game back of the Packers and a half-game behind the Lions. Detroit has yet to play a divisional game, so we will see how they compare to the rest of the division starting this week. The Lions also play the Vikings and us in their next 5 games, so those games will be very important in terms of playoff chances. There are 4 non-division teams vying for a playoff spot (SEA, LAR, CAR, and PHI) as well.

Packers (4-1) next 5: vs DET, vs OAK, @KC, @LAC, vs CAR
Projected record after 10 games: 7-3, This is dependent on how long Adams is out. If they fall flat against DET, then have to play OAK who has a solid running game, they could easily lose 3 here. They also play 4 out of 5 teams with a winning record and a 2-3 Chargers team in LA. 

Lions (2-1-1) next 5: @GB, vs MIN, vs NYG, @OAK, @CHI
Projected record after 10 games: 4-4-1, I give them 2 wins in the next 5 unless they beat the Pack this week without Adams. Even NYG looks a little tougher now and OAK in Cali looks a lot more challenging as well. They also play 4 out of 5 games against teams with winning records and NYG who looked pretty good against NE down 3 skill position starters. 

Bears (3-2) next 5: vs NO, vs LAC, @PHI, vs DET, @LAR
Projected record after 10 games: 7-3, we really need to go 4-1 in our next 5 to have a shot at 11 wins.  We have a very similar schedule to GB and also 4 out of 5 against teams with winning records, all in the conference and also chasing the playoffs. We need to take care of business at home and at least split the road games. We follow up this 5 with NYG, then close out with @DET, vs DAL, @GB, vs KC, and @MIN. 

Vikings (3-2) next 5: vs PHI, @DET, vs WAS, @KC, @DAL
Projected record after 10 games: 5-5, I think they split PHI/DET, beat WAS on TNF, then lose to KC and DAL on the road.  It's interesting that all 4 division teams play 4 out of 5 versus teams with winning records. This window should tell us about how we all stack up. 

For the other non-division leaders,

SEA is 4-1 and plays @CLE, vs BAL, @ATL, vs TB, and then @SF.  That's only two teams with a winning record and they play one of them (BAL) at home. So they could easily go 4-1 in this 5 and end up 8-2 after 10. CLE or TB are the only two teams that look like they could upset them at this point. They seem destined for 11 wins unless the wheels fall off. 

LAR is 3-2 and plays vs SF, @ATL, vs CIN, @PIT, then vs CHI. That's also only two teams with a winning record. At worst I see them at 6-4 at 10 games, but more than likely 7-3. Our game vs them in November is going to be huge for playoff chances. With their last 6, 10-11 wins seems likely.

CAR has played great without Cam and gets @TB, @SF, vs TEN, @GB, and vs ATL in their next 5, again only 2 against teams with winning records. They should be able to win 3-4 of those as well and potentially be 7-3 after 10. They look like they will get 10 wins.

PHI is the last team at 3-2, and they draw arguably the toughest schedule out of the group with @MIN, @DAL, @BUF, vs CHI, then vs NE. 5 games vs 5 teams with winning records. That is a brutal schedule with 3 straight road games followed by us at home. They will be lucky to win 2 of those games and will at best be 6-4 at 10, but more than likely 5-5. They finish out with SEA, MIA, NYG, WAS, DAL, NYG, so they will likely be in the 9-10 win range at the end of the season. 

With all that said, it is probably going to take 11 wins to guarantee a playoff spot with a bunch of teams at 10 wins. That means we need to go 8-3 in our last 11 games, so 4-1 is almost a must in our next 5.

[adam]

DAL lost to an 0-4 Jets; PHI got beat handily by MIN; SEA barely beat CLE, CAR beat TB, and SF dominated LAR. 

So it looks like we are going to be in a playoff race with every team in our division, SEA and CAR. PHI and LAR both look to be fading. I would rather see DET win and give GB their 2nd loss. That would put DET in the lead in the Division and knock GB back to a tie with MIN and CAR at 4-2. That would only put us a half game back for a WC berth and 0.75 back from DET as the Division leader.

1. SF 5-0-0
2. NO 5-1-0
3. GB 4-1-0 vs DET
4. DAL 3-3-0
WC1. SEA 5-1-0 (2-1 CONF)
WC2. MIN 4-2-0 (3-2 CONF)
3. CAR 4-2-0 (2-2 CONF)
4. DET 2-1-1 (1-0-1 CONF) @GB
5. CHI 3-2-0 (2-1 CONF)
6. LAR 3-3-0
7. PHI 3-3-0

[adam]

One other note, SF is 5-0, but has played some of the worst teams in the league and just played the Rams without Gurley. They are beating the teams they are supposed to beat, but the media is already crowning them NFC Champs. The combined record of their opponents is 6-21 (and that's with the Rams 3-3 in there). Our opponent's record is 14-14 and we took flak for an easy schedule?

The more this season plays out, the more I think we will be ok. Teams are going to start beating on each other, and our next 5 of NO, vs LAC, @PHI, vs DET, @LAR doesn't seem as tough as it looked before the season. NO w/o Brees, LAC has not looked good, PHI got de-pantsed against MIN, DET is DET, and LAR has not been the same team since we dominated them last year. If we can get our running game going and Trubisky plays efficient, we can win these next 5.