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Why pick a QB in top 10?


adam

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Here is a list of QBs selected in the top 10 since 2010 (19). Outside of Newton, Luck, Mahomes, and maybe Wentz, do any of these other guys strike you as 15-year franchise QBs? I know you can say the same about any position or pick in the top 10, but with all the scouting and analysis, it would seem like the QB position would be one of the easier ones to assess properly. 

1. Murray - Rookie year, too soon to evaluate
1. Mayfield - Seems to be way overrated and too busy with commercials
3. Darnold - Was highly touted, but in Year 2 looks just as lost as Trubisky
7. Allen - A decent mobile QB, but how much better than Tyrod Taylor is he?
10. Rosen - hard to evaluate with the brutal teams he has been on, but haven't seen much
2. Trubisky - Jury is still out in year 9, maybe he will put it together in the 2nd decade
10. Mahomes - future HoFer, if he can stay healthly, may be the best QB (statistically) ever
1. Goff - Goff feels like Trubisky with more passing yards and a better coach.
2. Wentz - Oft-injured, team won SB without him, looks average to above average.
1. Winston - He eats more INTs than W's, he has the physical traits to dominate, but can't put it all together
2. Mariota - Never lived up to billing, I feel like he has the same issues as Trubisky, mobile but can only read half the field
3. Bortles - Trubisky 1.0 with more interceptions. 
1. Luck - Was a franchise QB but team hasn't dropped off much since his surprising retirement, so how good was he?
2. RGIII - Injuries killed his career, he was exciting for a few games. 
8. Tannehill - Another guy killed with injuries, no relegated to backup duty or fill-in starter
1. Newton - Hopefully he can get back on track, ridiculous physical traits, can dominate the game if he wants to
8. Locker - Yeah wow
10. Gabbert - Yeah wow 2.0
1. Bradford - Injuries killed his career, but he made a boatload in this rookie deal

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Great point.  Maybe the best is to simply do what Pace lied to us about when he first came.  Pick a QB every year.  Get one in rounds 3-5, see what you have.  At some point, you might strike gold.  Or at least get serviceable.  We have those kinds of picks in the upcoming draft...  

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1 hour ago, madlithuanian said:

Great point.  Maybe the best is to simply do what Pace lied to us about when he first came.  Pick a QB every year.  Get one in rounds 3-5, see what you have.  At some point, you might strike gold.  Or at least get serviceable.  We have those kinds of picks in the upcoming draft...  

seriously, this makes a ton of sense. Maybe every two years, but yeah.

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2 hours ago, madlithuanian said:

Great point.  Maybe the best is to simply do what Pace lied to us about when he first came.  Pick a QB every year.  Get one in rounds 3-5, see what you have.  At some point, you might strike gold.  Or at least get serviceable.  We have those kinds of picks in the upcoming draft...  

You almost have to, the most important position on the field, and even when you think you are good, something always seems to happen (see Luck in Indy). So it would make sense to take a flyer on a guy, especially when so many other positional players in the 5th-7th don't pan out anyway. So it's not like you are wasting a pick on a guy that won't make the roster.

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2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Bray should be able to supplant Daniels next year. 

I personally wouldn’t mind seeing Bray sooner than later.  He had a pretty good showing in this years preseason even though it may have been a more vanilla version of the offense.  But then again so far Trubisky hasn’t really grasped anything higher than the ‘101 version’ yet.  

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5 hours ago, Bill said:

The pats pick a QB almost every year, get teams to think he's the answer to their situation and then trade him for more and better picks.  Great teams do great things.

The Pack used to do this to (Brunnell, Brooks, Hasselback, Flynn, etc). 

Peace

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This is the reason why the Miami Dolphins tanking makes no sense.  If you are a good, smart organization, you don't need the number oneoverall pick to find a good QB.  If you aren't, having the pick won't help you anyway.  Its all about taking advantage of opportunities and picking the right players.

Tom S.

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This sort of leads me to another topic, roster construction. Most of the good teams that have sustained success, draft well and have a good chunk of players on rookie deals. When those players are up for big raises, they only re-sign the elite guys and move the others before their big contract and recoup a draft pick in the process thru compensatory picks. I thought we were on the cusp of that when we lost Howard and Amos but unless we cut Davis before Week 10, we won't get any compensation in the 2020 draft. 

So for roster construction, you would want at least half your starters on a rookie deal (12 out of 24), offense and defense and the two kickers. For the Bears, on offense we have Trubisky, Montgomery, Miller, Daniels, and Coward on rookie deals. ARob, Gabriel, Burton, Leno, Massie, and Whitehair are all on subsequent deals. So that's 5, not bad. Pineiro is on one, that's 6. On defense we have Nichols, Floyd, Smith, and Jackson on rookie deals. Hicks, Goldman, Mack, Trevathan, Fuller, Amukamara, and HHCD are on other deals. So we have 10 of our starting 24 on rookie deals. That is ok, but anything under 10 makes for a bad cap situation. Coward masked the fact that Long is on a subsequent deal, so if you went off opening day roster, we would only have 9.

Ok great, what's the so what? When teams are trending away from rookie deals, their cap is becoming harder to manage. This tells me the Bears are on the cusp of unloading some of the higher-priced guys. If we lose to the Chargers, don't be surprised if we start dumping some of the guys on one-year deals or other vets with the trading deadline on October 29th. On offense, that includes Davis, Daniel, Arob, Gabriel, Massie, Leno, Burton, Patterson, Shaheen and on defense, Trevathan, Kwiatkoski, Floyd, Amukamara, Fuller, Skrine, HHCD, and Lynch. There are some other guys like RRH, Bush, McManis who could also be moved for draft picks. 

I started another thread about the trading deadline here:

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4 hours ago, tshanno said:

This is the reason why the Miami Dolphins tanking makes no sense.  If you are a good, smart organization, you don't need the number oneoverall pick to find a good QB.  If you aren't, having the pick won't help you anyway.  Its all about taking advantage of opportunities and picking the right players.

Tom S.

Yo'ur right, dysfunctional teams do dysfunctional things.

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The thing about QBs, if it was easy to find and groom, every team would have two on their roster.  If the Bears took Mahomes and the Chiefs took Trubisky, would the cards be flipped?

If I were Pace and Nagy, I would reach out to John Gruden to be OC. Give him the keys to Trubisky.  I was leary of Helfrich when he was brought in, but do you ever hear about him? I know Nagy is the real OC and Helfrich brings some college game design, but bring in an NFL guy.  Gruden has had some success with young QBs.

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2 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

The thing about QBs, if it was easy to find and groom, every team would have two on their roster.  If the Bears took Mahomes and the Chiefs took Trubisky, would the cards be flipped?

If I were Pace and Nagy, I would reach out to John Gruden to be OC. Give him the keys to Trubisky.  I was leary of Helfrich when he was brought in, but do you ever hear about him? I know Nagy is the real OC and Helfrich brings some college game design, but bring in an NFL guy.  Gruden has had some success with young QBs.

You mean Jay Gruden not Jon right?

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On 10/25/2019 at 5:30 PM, Bill said:

The pats pick a QB almost every year, get teams to think he's the answer to their situation and then trade him for more and better picks.  Great teams do great things.

Their scam works because with a HOF QB in Brady, these backups rarely see the field and yet when they do the system has been run for so long and run so well that these backups look great in limited action, so they can sell a turd for the price of gold.  Thus far only Garoppolo has seemed to pan out.  The rest have turned out to be fools Gold.   As long as Brady keeps playing they'll be able to upsell backups to desperate teams.  

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You can have a plan to draft a QB every year and then end up trading picks to move up for a player you want and in taking draft capital away, it overall affects the plan. When you have a Eddie Jackson sitting there do you take a 10th rated QB because you need to stick to a plan when you first started being a GM. Nope

I think somewhere along the line, you could have found a spot to draft one in 4 years.

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