Personnel Management - Looking at Pace

[Mongo3451]

Adam, I'm hoping you can run with this for me...

Pace:  He has made some good picks and some duds, so let's focus on the trades.  Shaheen is a solid bust.  So we spend a second rounder and give up what to move up?  Montgomery is solid, but unspectacular.  We give a second rounder and what for him?  Miller is another second rounder etc...  Now, let's go to Mack; two firsts and what else?  Trubisky...  did I miss any.  Can you add all of this up, because it seems like a draft and a half has been spent.

Looking at our biggest needs right now.  Assuming Trubisky is the starter and we didn't trade up. Who could we have drafted and would we have needed the Mack trade?

OL - our tackles are not terrible, but they neither have an identity.  We have one good guard and good center.  Two needed drafted highly.

DL - we have found out Hicks' value.  We need another one.

LB - assuming Mack is never traded for.  We need two pass rushers.  ILB is ok.

DB is ok.

TE - Pure vomit

RB - if we had a decent run game would Howard still be our guy?

Take it and run gents!  Let's have a hindsight draft!

 

[madlithuanian]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

Adam, I'm hoping you can run with this for me...

Pace:  He has made some good picks and some duds, so let's focus on the trades.  Shaheen is a solid bust.  So we spend a second rounder and give up what to move up?  Montgomery is solid, but unspectacular.  We give a second rounder and what for him?  Miller is another second rounder etc...  Now, let's go to Mack; two firsts and what else?  Trubisky...  did I miss any.  Can you add all of this up, because it seems like a draft and a half has been spent.

Looking at our biggest needs right now.  Assuming Trubisky is the starter and we didn't trade up. Who could we have drafted and would we have needed the Mack trade?

OL - our tackles are not terrible, but they neither have an identity.  We have one good guard and good center.  Two needed drafted highly.

DL - we have found out Hicks' value.  We need another one.

LB - assuming Mack is never traded for.  We need two pass rushers.  ILB is ok.

DB is ok.

TE - Pure vomit

RB - if we had a decent run game would forward still be our guy?

Take it and run gents!  Let's have a hindsight draft!

 

We do need CB as I think Price will be gone.  As will Dix.  SO, add S to the mix.  OTherwise you have it.  I think we are ok at RB, and can grab a guy ion the late rounds.  

THe biggest need is QB.  Then OL, the TE, then DL, then DB, then replacing Floyd.  We have a lot of holes.  With a better QB in the mix, we can bandaid up a lot toher than TE.  We need a legit TE.  We don't have one.

 

[adam]

Mongo:

Here is what I am tracking:

Floyd - lost 2016 4th (-1)
Whitehair - gained 2x 2016 4th's, gained 2017 4th (+3)
Kwiatkoski - lost 2016 6th (-1)
Trubisky - lost 2017 3rd, 4th, 2018 3rd (-3)
Shaheen - lost 2017 7th; gained 2017 4th, 6th, 2018 4th (-1/+3)
Jackson - lost 2017 6th
Miller - lost 2018 4th
Mack - lost 2019 1st, 6th, 2020 1st, 3rd; gained 2020 2nd, 5th (-4/+2)

So we gained 8 picks between Whitehair, Shaheen, and Mack and lost a total of 12 for a net of -4. For round totals:

1st - Lost 2 (-2)
2nd - Gained 1 (+1)
3rd - Lost 3 (-3)
4th - Lost 3, Gained 5 (+2)
5th - Gained 1 (+1)
6th - Lost 3, Gained 1  (-2)
7th - Lost 1 (-1)

So we essentially lost 2x first-rounders and 3x 3rd rounders to gain a 2nd rounder. So a net loss of 4 picks in the first 3 rounds in a 5-year span. We started with 15 picks from 2016-2020's drafts in the first 3 rounds and will end up with 11 and Mack. The crazy part is we parlayed a ton of draft capital moving down twice for Whitehair, and for Shaheen.

Pace almost has to do the same thing in 2020 and take some later picks and recoup some draft capital with the 2x 2nd's. Since those are more valuable, the Bears could end up with 2x late round 2nd's while recouping a 3rd and 4th rounder this year. They also have the Amos Comp pick and their 5th rounder. There is a conditional 5th with the Raiders and since they are doing so well, you have to think that was met. That would make it 2x 2nd's a 3rd (via trade), a 4th (via trade), 4th Round Comp (Amos), 5th round, 5th Round Comp (Mack). So there is potential for 7 picks in the first 5 rounds.

[Mongo3451]

Adam, you are the man!  Great job.  I truly hope place is done trading up.  I hate losing the picks.

[madlithuanian]

14 hours ago, adam said:

Mongo:

Here is what I am tracking:

Floyd - lost 2016 4th (-1)
Whitehair - gained 2x 2016 4th's, gained 2017 4th (+3)
Kwiatkoski - lost 2016 6th (-1)
Trubisky - lost 2017 3rd, 4th, 2018 3rd (-3)
Shaheen - lost 2017 7th; gained 2017 4th, 6th, 2018 4th (-1/+3)
Jackson - lost 2017 6th
Miller - lost 2018 4th
Mack - lost 2019 1st, 6th, 2020 1st, 3rd; gained 2020 2nd, 5th (-4/+2)

So we gained 8 picks between Whitehair, Shaheen, and Mack and lost a total of 12 for a net of -4. For round totals:

1st - Lost 2 (-2)
2nd - Gained 1 (+1)
3rd - Lost 3 (-3)
4th - Lost 3, Gained 5 (+2)
5th - Gained 1 (+1)
6th - Lost 3, Gained 1  (-2)
7th - Lost 1 (-1)

So we essentially lost 2x first-rounders and 3x 3rd rounders to gain a 2nd rounder. So a net loss of 4 picks in the first 3 rounds in a 5-year span. We started with 15 picks from 2016-2020's drafts in the first 3 rounds and will end up with 11 and Mack. The crazy part is we parlayed a ton of draft capital moving down twice for Whitehair, and for Shaheen.

Pace almost has to do the same thing in 2020 and take some later picks and recoup some draft capital with the 2x 2nd's. Since those are more valuable, the Bears could end up with 2x late round 2nd's while recouping a 3rd and 4th rounder this year. They also have the Amos Comp pick and their 5th rounder. There is a conditional 5th with the Raiders and since they are doing so well, you have to think that was met. That would make it 2x 2nd's a 3rd (via trade), a 4th (via trade), 4th Round Comp (Amos), 5th round, 5th Round Comp (Mack). So there is potential for 7 picks in the first 5 rounds.

Thanks for posting that.  Great work.

[Mongo3451]

I'm wondering what we could have drafted with those traded picks that could fill holes in the roster.

Two firsts and three thirds is allot of points on the draft value chart.

Just to think, we could have traded back in the 17 draft and got Jamal Adams and Mahomes.  Woulda coulda, lol!

[madlithuanian]

16 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I'm wondering what we could have drafted with those traded picks that could fill holes in the roster.

Two firsts and three thirds is allot of points on the draft value chart.

Just to think, we could have traded back in the 17 draft and got Jamal Adams and Mahomes.  Woulda coulda, lol!

It's not healthy for us to dwell on what could have been.  Hell, we could have had Brady.  It's all about what we can do going forward.

[BearFan PHX]

It's a nice idea to think that the GM should make good picks, but the consensus on Trubisky was that he was the best QB. Most NFL GMs and NFL pundits thought so at the time.

Maybe Nagy ruined him. But I digress...

Championship poker players dont always get good cards. What makes them champions is not that they can win every hand, but that they can make smart bets and handle the chaos, maximizing their chances of winning over time.

First round QBs are a real gamble. I give Pace credit for getting Trubisky. At the time, it was generally thought that he would be a good NFL QB, and Pace did what it took to make sure we got him. He didnt promise us that Trubisky couldnt be a bust. No GM knows that. What he did was get an in demand player and make sure he was a Bear.

Im not ready to fire Pace. But to me his biggest failure was Nagy.

I dont really care if Pace stays or we get a new GM. I just think Pace is pretty good. Will the next guy, picked by the McCaskeys be as good? I dunno. It's certainly possible. It's not like Pace is an A+, there is room for improvement. But if they keep him, I'd be good with that too.

But Nagy and the entire offensive staff has to go. Nagy, Helfrich, Ragone, Hiestand and Childress all need to hit the road.

Pagano is OK, but I'm open to new defensive coaches too. Whatever the new Head Coach needs.

Maybe we will get a defensive oriented coach who will choose a run oriented offense to compliment.

In all the chaos, please let's keep Mack.

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, BearFan NYC said:

Maybe we will get a defensive oriented coach who will choose a run oriented offense to compliment.

Like John Fox...

[adam]

The draft is really a crapshoot, you have to trust your scouts and assessments, but if you look at just first round picks, you have about a 33% chance to hit on it.

Check this out, using AV (Approximate Value), here are the players that would be considered "starters" or better from 2016-2018's first rounds:

2016: Goff, Wentz, Bosa, Elliott, Ramsey, Buckner, Conklin, Stanley, and Decker. 9 out of 32. The Bears had 3 players in the top 23 of the entire draft (Howard, Floyd, and Whitehair).

2017: Ramczyk, McCaffrey, Garrett, Mahomes, Watson, Trubisky, Watt, Adams, and Jarrad Davis? 9 out of 32. If you use AV, Pace killed this draft. Of all the players drafted in 2017, Pace drafted 3 players in the top 15 (Trubisky, Jackson, and Cohen), which is pretty impressive. However, there is no one else worth a damn in this draft (Shaheen is a total bust). Only Shaheen, Forrest Lamp, and Obi Melifonwu have had an AV as low as Shaheen's thru 2.5 years in the league from the 1st two rounds of this draft.

2018: Barkley, Nelson, James, Vander Esch, Mayfield, Smith, Edmunds, Ward, Chubb, and McClinchey. 10 out of 32. It is still pretty early to judge this year group, but only 6x Pro Bowlers from this group (as rookies). Others are standing out this year (in Year 2) like Jackson and Ridley. Daniels, Nichols, and Miller show up as 37th, 48th, and 55th for AV respectively. So again, 4 players in the top 55 of the entire draft is not as bad as I thought it was. 

What it seems like is Pace is a completely boom or bust type drafter. He gets Cohen but also gets Shaheen. For every Jackson, there is a Bullard. For every Smith, there is a Trubisky. 

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

Like John Fox...

yeah I thought about that when I wrote it hahahah maybe a GOOD one...

[BearFan PHX]

20 minutes ago, adam said:

What it seems like is Pace is a completely boom or bust type drafter. He gets Cohen but also gets Shaheen. For every Jackson, there is a Bullard. For every Smith, there is a Trubisky. 

Id rather have that than a bunch of average players, so I guess I share his philosophy

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Like John Fox...

Or Lovie Smith (while with the Bears 81-63 overall, three NFC North Titles and one SB appearance) or Chuck Pagano (53-43 and 3-3 playoff record).  

But really, hindsight being what it is, would you have preferred Fox's 'boring' offensive scheme with this defense the last two seasons?  Going back to earlier conversations, if you have a stellar defense even Qb's like Rex Grossman can make it to the Super Bowl.