We CAN Win with Trubisky

[Mongo3451]

Ok, you saw the title and rolled your eyes and sighed, thinking "didn't we say this about another guy?", lol!

Let me start by asking, has Trubisky had a clean pocket all year?

Has he had a running game all year?

Has he had a TE all year?

Nagy added to the complexity of the game plan without the benefit of crucial components and work in pre season games.

Here's what I think he needs:             1)  new OC, someone who understands running game and play action.  Trubisky has shown good accuracy on throws under 20.  Those can turn into huge plays with YAC.

2)  stud TE, one that can run and block.  A safety blanket like Jason Whitten is huge on 3rd down.

3)  OL, OL, OL.  Draft two, sign one

4)  get a WR that can blow the lid of the defense.  We have our number one, plus guys that can work underneath.  Nobody on our entire team scares anyone deep.

Mitch is not a quarterback that is ever going to be elite.  He doesn't have the brain for it.  What he can be is a well above average game manager if he has a running game and protection.  If you want razzle dazzle in the offense; how about a naked bootleg or a freakin rollout for goodness sake? 

Mitch showed promise last year with a big growth spurt and the surrounding cast, including coaches, let him down.  I'm in the lot of blaming everyone around  him.  Shitty line, no TE, most drops, and overconfident coach.

I don't know if Nagy would ever be willing to do what Mitch needs.  If not, he needs to go.  If Pace doesn't have the balls to control Nagy, then he needs to go too.  I would like to see them all stay and try to fix this.  Nagy needs to really sit down and tailor the offense to what the QB does well.  But remember, it all starts up front with personnel.

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

I’ll side with you on this but only a little. I agree he’ll never be elite.  He may (at best) be an Alex Smith type game manager.  The reason I don’t completely buy in is because once he’s rattled, he’s done.  He locks on receivers, he gets happy feet and he overthrows his receivers.  Would more time in game time situations (yes -to include preseason) help him improve? Possibly.   One measure, fair or not, will be to see how much better the team does if in fact Miller ends up starting most or the rest of the season.  If the team improves overall, then Trubisky is more to do with it.  If not....then as you allege it’s more the ‘supporting cast’.

All that being said; you can’t simply dump him (Trubiksy).  Too much invested.  I’d say look for a WORTHY veteran QB to challenge him next year AND even draft a 3rd or 4th round QB.  Heck I’d even be willing to see what more Bray can do, he had a good preseason at least. After next year starts though you’d have a better idea whether Trubiksy will pan out and whether they should honor his 5th year.  

[ChileBear]

7 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I’ll side with you on this but only a little. I agree he’ll never be elite.  He may (at best) be an Alex Smith type game manager.  The reason I don’t completely buy in is because once he’s rattled, he’s done.  He locks on receivers, he gets happy feet and he overthrows his receivers.  Would more time in game time situations (yes -to include preseason) help him improve? Possibly.   One measure, fair or not, will be to see how much better the team does if in fact Miller ends up starting most or the rest of the season.  If the team improves overall, then Trubisky is more to do with it.  If not....then as you allege it’s more the ‘supporting cast’.

All that being said; you can’t simply dump him (Trubiksy).  Too much invested.  I’d say look for a WORTHY veteran QB to challenge him next year AND even draft a 3rd or 4th round QB.  Heck I’d even be willing to see what more Bray can do, he had a good preseason at least. After next year starts though you’d have a better idea whether Trubiksy will pan out and whether they should honor his 5th year.  

Agree on why we won't dump Trubisky, but I don't think Bray is anything more than a practice arm. If he was any good he'd have been promoted or snatched off our practice squad. Draft someone in the later rounds.

[madlithuanian]

3 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Ok, you saw the title and rolled your eyes and sighed, thinking "didn't we say this about another guy?", lol!

Let me start by asking, has Trubisky had a clean pocket all year?

Has he had a running game all year?

Has he had a TE all year?

Nagy added to the complexity of the game plan without the benefit of crucial components and work in pre season games.

Here's what I think he needs:             1)  new OC, someone who understands running game and play action.  Trubisky has shown good accuracy on throws under 20.  Those can turn into huge plays with YAC.

2)  stud TE, one that can run and block.  A safety blanket like Jason Whitten is huge on 3rd down.

3)  OL, OL, OL.  Draft two, sign one

4)  get a WR that can blow the lid of the defense.  We have our number one, plus guys that can work underneath.  Nobody on our entire team scares anyone deep.

Mitch is not a quarterback that is ever going to be elite.  He doesn't have the brain for it.  What he can be is a well above average game manager if he has a running game and protection.  If you want razzle dazzle in the offense; how about a naked bootleg or a freakin rollout for goodness sake? 

Mitch showed promise last year with a big growth spurt and the surrounding cast, including coaches, let him down.  I'm in the lot of blaming everyone around  him.  Shitty line, no TE, most drops, and overconfident coach.

I don't know if Nagy would ever be willing to do what Mitch needs.  If not, he needs to go.  If Pace doesn't have the balls to control Nagy, then he needs to go too.  I would like to see them all stay and try to fix this.  Nagy needs to really sit down and tailor the offense to what the QB does well.  But remember, it all starts up front with personnel.

 

I think this plan sums up what many of us are thinking...Nagy just might be the bigger problem.  

[fudgeripple2000]

I agree and disagree.

I agree that it is possible to win with Mitch.  Good scheme and good coaching can fix a lot of our problems.  I think Nagy is too cute.  His style would work with a mahomes, wilson, or Lamar type of player, if Mitch is indeed compared to Alex Smith.

For example:

against the Rams:

Mitchell Trubisky was pressured on just 5 of 44 dropbacks (11%). Trubisky had little success throwing to his left compared to right.
                         LEFT: 5/10, 40 yards, INT (20.8 passer rating)
                         RIGHT: 13/21, 104 yards, TD (90.2 passer rating)

 

against the Lions:

Mitch was sacked 5 times however,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               LEFT: 5/8.  4/5 Completions 11 yards and under                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   RIGHT:  9/12  with only 2 completions over 20 yds.

Is this a player problem or a  scheme/coaching problem?  

I disagree in that we can't win with Mitch if the scheme remains the same

[Bill]

If this is the plan going forward then they need to evaluate, which I assume they are doing now, and devise a game plan for Mitch as the starter next year.  That's at least another year dealing with his short comings.  Any QB they bring in is only to be a back-up.  I don't think they can bring in another QB to compeat with him or we will be in the same place now.  A QB who can't seem to run the offense we have now.  I don't know the best choice going forward but if it includes MT then they need to spend the rest of this year coming up with another offensive scheme because this ones not working with him.  Or more likely He can't run it.  I think we saw his ceiling last year.  Good enough for a winning season but not good enough too put a team on his back and will them to win.  Like Cousins did Sunday.  

I feel for him but gee he looked like a kid who got caught with his hands in the cookie jar at his last press conference.

A lot of mumbling for saying nothing.  He just needs to be replaced sooner rather than later. IMHO

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, madlithuanian said:

I think this plan sums up what many of us are thinking...Nagy just might be the bigger problem.  

you guys are coming around to my way of thinking.

So now, two choices:

1) Fire Nagy now and get a look at Trubisky with a running game so you can make better decisions in the offseason

2) Wait until the end of the season, and then use NEXT YEAR to do the same thing.

Why wouldnt we want to leapfrog a year?

Only thing that makes this all moot is if Pace and Nagy are getting fired at the end of season and they want all new everyone.

[madlithuanian]

6 minutes ago, BearFan NYC said:

you guys are coming around to my way of thinking.

So now, two choices:

1) Fire Nagy now and get a look at Trubisky with a running game so you can make better decisions in the offseason

2) Wait until the end of the season, and then use NEXT YEAR to do the same thing.

Why wouldnt we want to leapfrog a year?

Only thing that makes this all moot is if Pace and Nagy are getting fired at the end of season and they want all new everyone.

I'd love it to happen sooner than later...but it won't.  I've been w/ you on this.  But the Bears aren't.  The best hope is we have epic fails w/ Chase Daniel behind center, so all can see that it just might be a coaching and personnell issue.  Thus resulting in no shows at Soldier, thus resulting in an angry Virginia.  Thus resulting in coaching/gm change in the off season.  Feels like deja vu all over again like  w/ Trestman/Fox.  Third time's the charm.

[BearFan PHX]

well said re: Trestman. Ugh.

[AZ54]

6 hours ago, fudgeripple2000 said:

I agree and disagree.

I agree that it is possible to win with Mitch.  Good scheme and good coaching can fix a lot of our problems.  I think Nagy is too cute.  His style would work with a mahomes, wilson, or Lamar type of player, if Mitch is indeed compared to Alex Smith.

For example:

against the Rams:

Mitchell Trubisky was pressured on just 5 of 44 dropbacks (11%). Trubisky had little success throwing to his left compared to right.
                         LEFT: 5/10, 40 yards, INT (20.8 passer rating)
                         RIGHT: 13/21, 104 yards, TD (90.2 passer rating)

 

against the Lions:

Mitch was sacked 5 times however,                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                               LEFT: 5/8.  4/5 Completions 11 yards and under                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   RIGHT:  9/12  with only 2 completions over 20 yds.

Is this a player problem or a  scheme/coaching problem?  

I disagree in that we can't win with Mitch if the scheme remains the same

Stats are really deceiving at times without context.  I thought Trubisky played well the last couple games.  Where does all this fit in?  While I see the issues Mitch has, on the other hand he is still playing like the 3rd or 4th best player on the offense.   I'll list them as I see it:

ARob, Gabriel, then it's a toss up between Montgomery and Trubisky.    At #5 I'd take Whitehair, Coward (big improvement over Long but still learning), Massie, Cohen, AMiller, Daniels, Leno.  

You can shuffle the bottom 5 in a ton of different ways but they've all had significant issues that cost us big plays, either positive or negative.  

Then there is the play calling.  

NFL Team Leaderboards: Receiving

 

Receiving Categories:

Receiving Yards Receiving Touchdowns Receptions YAC for Receivers Yards/Catch Passes Dropped Big Catches (>25 yd) Longest Reception Receiving First Downs %First Downs/Reception Receptions Inside Opponents' 20 Receptions Inside Opponents' 10 100 Yard Receivers For 100 Yard Receivers Against

NFL  |  NFC  |  AFC

 

NFL Passes Dropped
Rank	Team	Passes Dropped
1	Chicago Bears	18
2	Miami Dolphins	18
3	Cleveland Browns	15

[adam]

It's really easy to make an average QB look like crap. Mitch is an average QB with some mobility. This year, he never used his mobility which killed off one of his best attributes. Then if you add bad O-Line play, zero production from TEs, no running game, AND WR's dropping passes. This is what you get.

My problem with Mitch is when he has all of that working, he misses the throw or misses the read. In Year #3, he should be able to overcome bad play from other players, and he has shown time and time again that he is incapable of doing that. Make a damn play. 

The same goes for the receivers dropping passes, make a damn play, every ball doesn't need to be perfect, if it hits your hands, you need to catch it. For the O-Line, at least make the defender run around you like a tackling dummy and not through you. Our TE's are so bad, it might be better to go with Montgomery and Cohen in the backfield and 3 WR's.

It will be telling on how the season progresses at QB. If Mitch doesn't play against the Giants, he is done as a Bear. If he plays, then the team is sticking with him for 2020.

[Bill]

"Nagy cited an example against the Lions two weeks ago when a long pass was called. Trubisky realized it wasn’t there and completed a shorter throw to Allen Robinson.

“We had called a shot two games ago to go downtown against Detroit and they took it away,” Nagy said. “Well, he went ahead and dropped it down to 12 yards to Allen Robinson for a first down. To me, that’s a huge step in the right direction. I’m seeing a lot more of that, which I appreciate and for me that’s a huge stepping stone.”

Trubisky agrees that he’s making strides."

 

I've become so critical of Trubisky's play that I can't read anything about how things are going without becoming super critical.  Take that quote from Nagy.  He's relating a play from over two weeks before about how Mitch went to his 2nd read and that's progress.  A "huge stepping stone" for a Pro QB in his third year.  What am I missing that makes me have no hope. 

[Mongo3451]

18 minutes ago, Bill said:

"Nagy cited an example against the Lions two weeks ago when a long pass was called. Trubisky realized it wasn’t there and completed a shorter throw to Allen Robinson.

“We had called a shot two games ago to go downtown against Detroit and they took it away,” Nagy said. “Well, he went ahead and dropped it down to 12 yards to Allen Robinson for a first down. To me, that’s a huge step in the right direction. I’m seeing a lot more of that, which I appreciate and for me that’s a huge stepping stone.”

Trubisky agrees that he’s making strides."

 

I've become so critical of Trubisky's play that I can't read anything about how things are going without becoming super critical.  Take that quote from Nagy.  He's relating a play from over two weeks before about how Mitch went to his 2nd read and that's progress.  A "huge stepping stone" for a Pro QB in his third year.  What am I missing that makes me have no hope. 

Look at the video on the Horstead thread.  Nobody can succeed with this OL.

[BearFan PHX]

It's all true.

It's like standing in a field that's on fire and someone shoots an arrow into your leg.

We can argue "if it werent for the arrow, maybe we could run out of the blaze. But theres a LOT of fire, and you could say without the fire, the arrow would be survivable.

They all suck.

But who is more easily replaced? I mean, if you get rid of em all, that's one way to go. It just costs a few years.

If they can salvage anything from Trubisky, they should try. But not with this offense. And not with this OL.

But if they moved on from Nagy AND Trubisky would that be OK? Sure.

And obviously whatever happens, OL replacements are inevitable.

But Nagy or (and?) Trubisky have to go, because this is a total disaster.

[adam]

The video below posted in the other thread (thx BearFan NYC), not many QB's are going to be able to do much with this O-Line. Trubisky is still at fault, but man, these guys suck. Daniels needs to ride the pine. He can't even slow down rushers, and can't move a defender an inch in the run game. Massie is a huge dude, how can he not move people? It's mind-boggling. Leno is a drive-killing penalty waiting to happen. They can't run block or pass block. Trubisky rarely has a clean pocket and when he does, the receivers are not open, run the wrong route, drop the pass, or he misses on the throw. It's a like series of negative outcomes that at least one is guaranteed to happen on every play.

This is the Bears offensive script: Pre-snap penalty > missed block > receivers not open > run the wrong route > dropped pass > missed throw > penalty

 

 

[madlithuanian]

17 hours ago, adam said:

The video below posted in the other thread (thx BearFan NYC), not many QB's are going to be able to do much with this O-Line. Trubisky is still at fault, but man, these guys suck. Daniels needs to ride the pine. He can't even slow down rushers, and can't move a defender an inch in the run game. Massie is a huge dude, how can he not move people? It's mind-boggling. Leno is a drive-killing penalty waiting to happen. They can't run block or pass block. Trubisky rarely has a clean pocket and when he does, the receivers are not open, run the wrong route, drop the pass, or he misses on the throw. It's a like series of negative outcomes that at least one is guaranteed to happen on every play.

This is the Bears offensive script: Pre-snap penalty > missed block > receivers not open > run the wrong route > dropped pass > missed throw > penalty

 

 

Holy crap is that discouraging...

Is Whitehair the only guy on it that has value?  Looks like TE and OL are the only spots we shoud draft for (and QB).  Everything else, we can probably manage through.  That OL is pure garbage.  Wow.  I'm just shocked.  I knew I saw some errors watching live, but the breakdown really shines a light on it.  Tack in horrible play calling with this poor play and drops...man, yuck.  Just yuck.  Heistand and Helfrich should be fired after this season.  Try again Nagy. 

 

[adam]

53 minutes ago, madlithuanian said:

Holy crap is that discouraging...

Is Whitehair the only guy on it that has value?  Looks like TE and OL are the only spots we shoud draft for (and QB).  Everything else, we can probably manage through.  That OL is pure garbage.  Wow.  I'm just shocked.  I knew I saw some errors watching live, but the breakdown really shines a light on it.  Tack in horrible play calling with this poor play and drops...man, yuck.  Just yuck.  Heistand and Helfrich should be fired after this season.  Try again Nagy. 

 

Daniels might be salvageable, but he might be playing the worst out of all five. So you have to get at least two new guys on that line at a minimum and a new starting TE. I am sure Floyd won't be back for his price, Prince won't be back, HHCD or Trevathan. So that leaves 4 starter holes on the defense and 3 holes on offense without addressing the QB position. So things are not looking very good with the cap unless Pace can move some of the dead weight guys. 

[adam]

Trubisky has looked pretty good the last couple of weeks. All his numbers are up and he is almost back to where he was last year. To exceed his yardage from last year, which would be shocking given how poorly he played for the first half of the season, he only needs to average 257 yards a game. After the last two games, it seems like he legitimately has a shot at that. For TDs, if he averages 2.75 a game (11 in next 4 games), he will tie his last season total. This one might be tough, but he can hopefully break 20 for the year (with 7). His comp% is up to 63.7, so that is within 3% of his average last year. The biggest drop off in stats is with his running. He will be lucky to finish the year with even half of what he had his rookie year (a quarter of what he had last year). It seems like this is actually the biggest factor in his play, he is not extending plays with his feet like he did last year, which masked the bad O-Line play, and inconsistencies on offense. The one area he has improved in is ball security, only 2 fumbles (1 lost) on the season. He needs to keep this up the last 4 games.

If we get something close to the Trubisky we got on Thursday every game, I am good with that. Low end 250 yds and a TD, high end 350 with 3 TDs. 

These last 4 weeks will be telling. Every game is a playoff game against a playoff-caliber opponent. Even if our record was better, if we can't beat these teams, we shouldn't be in the playoffs anyway.
 

btw, Trubisky's Passer Rating is up to 84.4 on the season, which is only slightly worse than his career average of 86.6. Another good game and he should be over that mark for the season. 

[BearFan PHX]

6 minutes ago, adam said:

If we get something close to the Trubisky we got on Thursday every game, I am good with that. Low end 250 yds and a TD, high end 350 with 3 TDs. 

These last 4 weeks will be telling. Every game is a playoff game against a playoff-caliber opponent. Even if our record was better, if we can't beat these teams, we shouldn't be in the playoffs anyway.

Youre right.

If Trubisky looks as good as he did against the Lions while playing playoff caliber teams, that would be a real step forward.

I dont think Trubisky will ever be elite, but I do think we can get some more out of him, and draft a 2nd round rookie QB to compete.

I generally think Nagy is the problem, and there are many examples and facets to that.

Just one is the number of penalties this team gets that wipe out big plays on offense and defense. That's bad coaching.

There are many more examples I wont add here.

Yes, Trubisky can be decent in a sane offense that has an actual OL and a logical offensive scheme.

[adam]

50 minutes ago, BearFan NYC said:

Youre right.

If Trubisky looks as good as he did against the Lions while playing playoff caliber teams, that would be a real step forward.

I dont think Trubisky will ever be elite, but I do think we can get some more out of him, and draft a 2nd round rookie QB to compete.

I generally think Nagy is the problem, and there are many examples and facets to that.

Just one is the number of penalties this team gets that wipe out big plays on offense and defense. That's bad coaching.

There are many more examples I wont add here.

Yes, Trubisky can be decent in a sane offense that has an actual OL and a logical offensive scheme.

What's interesting about penalties is, if I asked you have the Bears had more penalties called on us or our opponents? I believe the consensus answer would be calls against us, and we would all be wrong. The Bears have 85 against and 91 for, for a net of +6.  We are right around league average for penalties and in the top 10 for calls against the other team. What I think we are seeing is more preventable calls than there needs to be. If we can cut down on even 1-2 of those a game, it will make a huge difference. 

For me, right now, this team is literally 3-4 plays away from being a playoff team. Cut down on 1-2 penalties, have one less drop on offense, and one less blown coverage or assignment on defense, and this team is a top 10 team. That is how close it feels.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

DP

[Alaskan Grizzly]

TP

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Being one of the more strident ‘doubting Thomas’ers’ I’ll say in the highlight films I saw of yesterday’s game, Mr. Trubiksy...I am impressed.

He looked composed, stood tall in the pocket, delivered relatively on-target throws to his receivers (which they didn’t drop) and he rolled out (the right way) when he felt pressure. Yes I get that this was the 24th ranked defense in Detroit but they were at home and wanted a win as bad if not more than the Bears.  They especially were feeling good when they found what could be a pretty decent QB in Blough (or was it our defense playing so poorly?).  Anyhow, overall Mitch did good yesterday.  And by the by, has anyone else noticed lately he’s starting to develop a more harder snap count (from time to time)?  I noticed it last week when the opposition had a fair amount of defensive line penalties and a few close calls yesterday for Detroit.  This is a good thing for Mitch.  Adds an extra element to the offense and causes the rush to pause that much more.  
 

Please keep this good thing going.  

[AZ54]

8 hours ago, adam said:

What's interesting about penalties is, if I asked you have the Bears had more penalties called on us or our opponents? I believe the consensus answer would be calls against us, and we would all be wrong. The Bears have 85 against and 91 for, for a net of +6.  We are right around league average for penalties and in the top 10 for calls against the other team. What I think we are seeing is more preventable calls than there needs to be. If we can cut down on even 1-2 of those a game, it will make a huge difference. 

For me, right now, this team is literally 3-4 plays away from being a playoff team. Cut down on 1-2 penalties, have one less drop on offense, and one less blown coverage or assignment on defense, and this team is a top 10 team. That is how close it feels.

When you have an offense that isn't performing well consistently it doesn't take much to get them off the field.   Any holding call or offensive penalty and we're done.  The defense can, and has, overcome mistakes most of the time.