Bears 2020 Draft Outlook

[AZ54]

10 hours ago, adam said:

 

Just based on how this season turned out, the Mack trade has gotten considerably worse for the Bears. 

I still have zero regrets and I'd make the same deal in a heart beat.  

[adam]

So it looks like we are locked in at #18 and the only possible move is dropping to #19 with a PIT loss. The Rams have #20 locked up as the best team not to make the playoffs. We look to be 2nd in that race. The Raiders loss would be helpful for our 2nd round pick from them. They would be tied with NYJ, TB, ATL, and potentially DAL and IND at 7-9. Since NYJ has the worst SOS, they get the best first round pick, but then the pick rotate and the Raiders would get the best 2nd round pick among 7-9 teams (Pick #44), and we would have pick 50-52 depending on the outcome of the PIT and LAR games.

12. NYJ  7-9 .472 SOS
13. TB  7-9 .504 SOS
14. ATL 7-9 .545 SOS
15. OAK 7-8 .478 SOS (loss would drop them to 13th)
16. DAL 7-8 .480 SOS
17. IND 7-8 .490 SOS
18. CHI 8-8 .506 SOS
19. PIT 8-7 .500 SOS
20. LAR 8-7 .539 SOS
--------------------
21. PHI 8-7 .457 SOS
22. TEN 8-7 .492 SOS

So we traded #18 for #44, and we pick again between 50-52. 

[adam]

Oh man, that could not have worked out much better, here is the draft order for the 2020 draft:

1. CIN
2. WAS
3. DET
4. NYG
5. MIA
6. LAC
7. CAR
8. ARZ
9. JAX
10. CLE
11. NYJ
12. OAK (Pick #43 in 2nd Round)
13. IND
14. TB
15. DEN
16. ATL
17. DAL
18. PIT
19. CHI (Pick #50 in 2nd Round)
20. LAR

So based on the tiebreaker rotation, OAK moves up to the first 7-9 slot in the 2nd round, and the Bears move up one slot in the 8-8 teams.

So we end up giving up #19 for #43 and our 2nd round pick is #50. I originally thought we would get 45 and 52, so we are in a lot better position going into the draft.

[adam]

#43 and #50 equal #17 in the first round. So we are not doing too bad. I still think we take a player and trade back. Pick #50 can be traded back to pick #63 and #95, so a mid-2nd rounder can net you a late 2nd rounder and late 3rd rounder. So we could still draft 2x 2nd rounders and pick up a 3rd rounder. With the comp picks, we will be in much better shape with just one trade back. 

For finishing 8-8 and having the Raiders finish 7-9, it's crazy to think a 7-9 team would be drafting 11th in a round (2nd round). Normally that is the 6 win range. So we are lucky there are less teams under 7 wins this year. It's also great that the Raiders finished as the 2nd worse 7-9 team so the tie breaker rotation puts them first in the 2nd round. So we get the best pick possible (11th in the 2nd) from them.

Just a thought, we are only a late 3rd round pick from moving back into the first round. We could use #43 + 2021 3rd Rounder to move into the back end of the first round. That would be a sneaky move. I would still use the other to trade back and get additional mid round picks.

 

[AZ54]

7 minutes ago, adam said:

Oh man, that could not have worked out much better, here is the draft order for the 2020 draft:

1. CIN
2. WAS
3. DET
4. NYG
5. MIA
6. LAC
7. CAR
8. ARZ
9. JAX
10. CLE
11. NYJ
12. OAK (Pick #43 in 2nd Round)
13. IND
14. TB
15. DEN
16. ATL
17. DAL
18. PIT
19. CHI (Pick #50 in 2nd Round)
20. LAR

So based on the tiebreaker rotation, OAK moves up to the first 7-9 slot in the 2nd round, and the Bears move up one slot in the 8-8 teams.

So we end up giving up #19 for #43 and our 2nd round pick is #50. I originally thought we would get 45 and 52, so we are in a lot better position going into the draft.

We're in a good spot to get two players who can contribute next year.  What positions will depend on how the draft falls but we have needs all over.  

[adam]

4 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

We're in a good spot to get two players who can contribute next year.  What positions will depend on how the draft falls but we have needs all over.  

Yeah, it almost could not play out any better for us with the records of both teams. 

[ParkerBear7]

Dreaming Big here:

 

Trade Mitch and three future 1st rounder picks to Cincinnati for number 1 pick 2020. Mitch gets a fresh start in his home state while Bengals start rebuilding.  Bears select Joe Burrow and and then use the two second picks to bring in OL talent. Address other needs via draft and FA.  
 

Nagy then has one season to work with a Franchise prototype NFL QB. Assuming he is not extended, Jim Harbaugh’s contract expires at Michigan in January 2021.  

[Connorbear]

17 minutes ago, ParkerBear7 said:

Dreaming Big here:

 

Trade Mitch and three future 1st rounder picks to Cincinnati for number 1 pick 2020. Mitch gets a fresh start in his home state while Bengals start rebuilding.  Bears select Joe Burrow and and then use the two second picks to bring in OL talent. Address other needs via draft and FA.  
 

Nagy then has one season to work with a Franchise prototype NFL QB. Assuming he is not extended, Jim Harbaugh’s contract expires at Michigan in January 2021.  

Nice pipe dream but it won't happen. 

Also, no way, no how do I want Harbaugh coaching the Bears. 

Peace

[killakrzydav]

I believe that Tua would be the safer pick even with the hip injury over Burrow. 
Trade back into the late first for him if you want

[adam]

9 hours ago, killakrzydav said:

I believe that Tua would be the safer pick even with the hip injury over Burrow. 
Trade back into the late first for him if you want

Most have Tua still going in the top half of the 1st. So I doubt he is there in the late part of the round, but if he is, there is a chance the team could move up using the Raiders pick and a future 2nd or 3rd Rounder. So they would essentially be giving up 2x 2nd rounders for a late first rounder, which seems fair. 

[adam]

I assume the team addresses O-Line, TE, or Edge in their first two picks.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

10 hours ago, ParkerBear7 said:

 

Dreaming Big here:

 

Like the way you think.  I know he’s struggled in Michigan but maybe Harbaugh in Chicago would do wonders for the team.  Sorta like bringing a newer version of Ditka back.

And is Denver doesn’t do better next year Fangio could be looking for a new job.

Imagine Harbaugh and Fangio on the same coaching staff...again?  ... hmmm.  

If only there were a way to get Burrow.  

[adam]

12 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Like the way you think.  I know he’s struggled in Michigan but maybe Harbaugh in Chicago would do wonders for the team.  Sorta like bringing a newer version of Ditka back.

And is Denver doesn’t do better next year Fangio could be looking for a new job.

Imagine Harbaugh and Fangio on the same coaching staff...again?  ... hmmm.  

If only there were a way to get Burrow.  

Burrow is already a Bengal. He grew up in SE Ohio with the closest state team being the Bengals and he also played at Ohio State before LSU. 

Burrow and Young are locked in at 1/2. That is a given. Cincinnati gets the next Andrew Luck and the Redskins get the next Lawrence Taylor. 

Just looking at the draft, the Bears are going to be competing with CIN, MIA, LAC, CAR, DEN, and maybe TB and IND for a QB. That's 8 teams with most have two picks before the Bears have one. The only QBs that might be available for the Bears in the 2nd are Eason and Montez.

1. CIN - Yes (draft Burrow)
2. WAS - No
3. DET - No
4. NYG - No
5. MIA - Yes (draft someone here)
6. LAC - Yes (draft someone here)
7. CAR - Maybe (is Cam back or do they draft someone here?) - I doubt the 3rd QB gets past this pick. 
8. ARZ - No
9. JAX - No
10. CLE - No
11. NYJ - No
12. OAK - No
13. IND - Maybe
14. TB - Maybe
15. DEN - Yes (Do they go with Lcck, hopefully they do)
16. ATL - No
17. DAL - No (assuming Prescott)
18. MIA - Yes (via PIT)
19. OAK - No (via CHI)
20. JAX - No (via LAR)
21. PHI - No
22. TEN - Maybe (do they re-sign Tannehill)
23. BUF - No
24. MIN - No
25. HOU - No
26. SEA - No
27. NE - Maybe (Brady's replacement?)
28. GB - No
29. NO - Maybe (do they draft Brees' replacement?)
30. KC - No
31. SF - No
32. BAL - No

[Alaskan Grizzly]

3 hours ago, adam said:

 OAK - No

So two things; shouldn’t they referred to LAV (or whatever they’re new code will be)?  And is there a possibility that Carr will leave Oakland?  Would it be a trade scenario?  If so, maybe a deal including the return of Mack to the Vegas Raiders?  I love the guy but personally see more a need at QB than at his position.  

[adam]

36 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

So two things; shouldn’t they referred to LAV (or whatever they’re new code will be)?  And is there a possibility that Carr will leave Oakland?  Would it be a trade scenario?  If so, maybe a deal including the return of Mack to the Vegas Raiders?  I love the guy but personally see more a need at QB than at his position.  

The league season is not over, so they are still OAK to me. I am sure there is a possibility of Carr leaving OAK, but it would only be via trade. He has a $21.5M cap hit next year, so that would be tough for us to take on such a large contract. If we could, the dead money in 2021 is only $2.5M, so we could cut sling after one year if it didn't work out. I have no idea the trade value, but since we worked with OAK in the past, maybe we could work something out. I don't think it would be for Mack though, more than likely a draft pick.

[Stinger226]

On 11/24/2019 at 11:47 AM, adam said:

Right now the Bears are tied for the 12th worst team in the league with CLE and JAX (oh joy). Since we have the toughest SOS, we get the lesser pick (14th) in the first (to OAK) and then the 13th pick in the 2nd, and the 12th pick in the 3rd (to OAK).

If the season ended today, we would have the 45th pick in the 2nd round and somewhere around the 52nd pick from the Raiders. Without 3rd and 5th Round picks, the Bears almost have to use one of those to trade down. I would rather use the second one and do something like this:

1. Select #45
2. Trade #52 (OAK) for #60 + late 4th + late 5th
3. Select #60 (from trade)
4. Trade late 4th and Eagles 6th to move up in the 4th
5. Select mid-4th (from trade)
6. Select 4th Round Comp (Amos)
7. Select 5th Round
8. Select 5th Round (from trade)
9. Select 6th Round 
10. Select 7th Round

This scenario would give us 6 picks in rounds 2-5, where Pace has better success.

 

This sounds like a Pace type draft and would be all in on it. This is where he excels in the draft.  I would be happy if he never had a first rounder again considering his record. 

[Stinger226]

After a mediocre season, we need to remember, 12-4 then 8-8, we are some where in between and that still puts us in the driver's seat for a playoff contender next year. Far from 2018 but we still finished 8th on defense with all the key injuries.  I think think the defense is better than we complained about all year. I think Prince and Trevathan are gone . Floyd may be back but not at 13 million.  As much as the overall performance of HaHa was good, I think part of our defensive woes were having 2 free safeties, putting Jackson in the SS spot way to much. I think we would be better off with Bush at SS and not mess with Jackson.  We will also bring in a new safety.  I think we bring back Kwit and KPL  that will be quite adequate at ILB with a healthy Smith. Hicks puts the roar back in the defense and tolliver is good enough to replace Prince with added depth at CB to compete. I think a year of Pagano, he will figure out how to best use Mack and out playmakers. So until we add some additional players, Tolliver, Bush, KLP and Kwit will fill in nicely. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, Stinger226 said:

I think think the defense is better than we complained about all year.

Yeah to consider they only dropped a few spots overall with some of the losses throughout the season and before the season, Pagano did pretty well.  Hindsight being what it is, the loss of both Amos and Callahan were bigger than originally thought.

There were some key games where the defense seemed like they were out there A LOT longer than they should have been and looked gassed because of it. The Denver and Oakland games immediately come to mind.  The offense was abysmal or at least ranked near the bottom in almost all categories making the defense have to over perform.  You can’t win games like that, no matter how ‘easy’ or difficult your schedule is.  

[AZ54]

On 12/30/2019 at 8:36 PM, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Yeah to consider they only dropped a few spots overall with some of the losses throughout the season and before the season, Pagano did pretty well.  Hindsight being what it is, the loss of both Amos and Callahan were bigger than originally thought.

There were some key games where the defense seemed like they were out there A LOT longer than they should have been and looked gassed because of it. The Denver and Oakland games immediately come to mind.  The offense was abysmal or at least ranked near the bottom in almost all categories making the defense have to over perform.  You can’t win games like that, no matter how ‘easy’ or difficult your schedule is.  

Always keep this in mind when considering Callahan vs. Skrine.   It's really rare, if ever, for Callahan to play in 16 games.  I think when healthy Callahan was the better player but availability wins the day here IMO.  

https://www.si.com/nfl/broncos/news/denver-broncos-place-cb-bryce-callahan-on-injured-reserve-activate-tim-patrick

[Alaskan Grizzly]

10 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Always keep this in mind when considering Callahan vs. Skrine.   It's really rare, if ever, for Callahan to play in 16 games.  I think when healthy Callahan was the better player but availability wins the day here IMO.  

https://www.si.com/nfl/broncos/news/denver-broncos-place-cb-bryce-callahan-on-injured-reserve-activate-tim-patrick

Understood and I was aware .  But overall performance being measured here it was apparent that Callahan probably would prove out better overall.  
 

I wouldn’t think of trying to replace Hicks’ or Trevathan’s talent simply because they were put on IR.  

[Connorbear]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Understood and I was aware .  But overall performance being measured here it was apparent that Callahan probably would prove out better overall.  
 

I wouldn’t think of trying to replace Hicks’ or Trevathan’s talent simply because they were put on IR.  

Callahan has always had issues staying healthy. That's the difference.

Peace

[ASHKUM BEAR]

On 11/30/2019 at 1:18 PM, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Whether Trubisky can be our guy or not, the Bears need to hedge on that bet. I hope he can figure it out and be Drew Brees 2.0  if not it is time to get someone in to push him and no longer coddle him. 

2- QB Jalen Hurts - Could be a Prescott of the future. Been in big games, can do it with legs or arm.

Or  QB Jake Fromm (statefarm) to keep the Georgia connection alive.  He has less upside but capable of playing sooner (Kirk Cousins comparisons)

2 - OLB. Julian Okwara ND or Terrill Lewis Ala - The Bears need an answer opposite of Mack.  Floyd has not produced and cannot be counted on to.

4 OT Hakeem Adeniji KS - need to start piping in talent on the OT's

5 TE Matt Bushman BYU

5 OLB Zack Baun - the Bears need a couple OLBs to replace Lynch and Floyd. If Floyd can be kept on a reduced contract, they might be able to go OT/G here.

6 CB TJ Carter Memphis- they have hit on late round DBs before with Amos

6 CB Tony Pride ND - double up on CBs, need to find someone that can step in to replace Prince

7 S Jeremy Chinn - Southern Illinois

 

 

Could have taken Jalen Hurts with either of our 2nd round picks. I like Kmet, but would be happier with some hope at QB.  

[BearFan PHX]

I'd just like to echo the idea that Harbaugh is NOT what we need. And neither is Pat Fitzgerald. That is all.

[jason]

1 hour ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Could have taken Jalen Hurts with either of our 2nd round picks. I like Kmet, but would be happier with some hope at QB.  

Damn right. I hated the Kmet pick. Nice game today, but I hated it. And with Jimmy Graham, it proved not to be necessary. 

[adam]

12 hours ago, jason said:

Damn right. I hated the Kmet pick. Nice game today, but I hated it. And with Jimmy Graham, it proved not to be necessary. 

I wanted Claypool instead. To me, he would've been a much better weapon in this offense than Kmet has been.