The Plan For Next Year

[BearFan PHX]

We're all thinking it, trying to figure out how to fix the team going forward.

There are a few obvious plans.

One possibility is that they'll fire Pace and let the new GM clean house in every way. This isn't a bad idea at all, and it's probably the most likely one. If you think there is nothing redeemable here, then you're starting over from scratch. It'll take a few years to put it together, especially since we don't have a first round pick this year. So Mack won't be around and in his prime when you finally get it back together, and suddenly you understand what Gruden was thinking and you trade Mack for a couple of firsts to get it going. Except you can't. He has close to $60 Million dollars in dead cap value.

So you have to build on what you have. You literally have to wait at least another year before you can really do anything about finding a possible franchise QB.

Your options are free agents, 2nd round draft picks. Pace (if he stays) won't have the juice to trade future first rounders to move up now to get one of the first round Qbs. He cant really package the two 2nds to do it unless he plans on starting this new rookie behind our current line, which by the way eats a lot of cap room and is also locked in in a lot of ways. Dont get me wrong, I expect at least three new starters next year, but were gonna have to eat a lot of cap on at least one of the two OTs, and if the other one stays around, that's gonna hurt us on the field or be an expensive backup.

We're going to need all of our picks, and so we are likely looking at OL and QB in the 2nd round, and more OL, CB, TE, OLB and MLB, and no matter who we get, we are going to have to run the ball and have the defense lead the team next year.

So that means that we dont have to fill every hole to win now, but we have to make good developmental choices instead.

Without a first round pick, or a ton of salary cap room, next year will not be a GMs paradise. Another typical NFL plan would be to make Pace and Nagy et al babysit the team next year, with clear instructions about drafting and developing an OL. And then after next year they would all be fired, and a very attractive situation would appear for a new GM and coach looking to add the right few skill players to a solid but not flashy core.

Our lack of flexibility to address these problems comes directly from Pace. He's the one that married us to Massie and Leno. He's the one that traded away future picks. It was a bold move, and he surely got value for them, but one of the things he traded away was the ability to make evaluations and change course at the end of this season specifically. Pace traded the 2020 season to give us this 2019 season.

And Nagy did this with it.

If they arent all fired this year, it'll be because they have to babysit the mess they made and then get fired next year.

So the third way of looking at it is to salvage something, and change something, and try to get a jump on next year. I was asking for that a few weeks ago. Frankly, it's too late now. And sadly, the change they were/are flirting with was showing us (Nagy + Daniels) instead of (Trubisky - Nagy). And neither of those scenarios changes the OL. I guess the argument I was making a few weeks ago was without Nagy, maybe just blocking forward in power running schemes would reveal some ability in either Massie or Leno.

At any rate, theres a full analysis of the three paths (fire everyone now, fire everyone after next year, fire Nagy now) and they all suck.

And it is becoming clearer and clearer that these choices by Pace are a fatal blow to 2019 and 2020:

Hiring Nagy
Signing long terms deals with Leno and Massie
Thinking Hiestand would turn Coward into a GOOD NFL OL
Drafting Trubisky over Watson or Mahomes
Drafting Leonard Floyd
Failing to find even an average kicker after several tries
Being overly aggressive in pursuing his plans, trading too many future picks as a general strategy

Pace and Nagy have spent big and schemed bold, put all the chips in, and ended up with an atrocious product on the field.

Maybe the best long term effect of this is that it brings us closer to ownership selling the team.

We are not only terrible, but locked in. It doesnt get worse than this in the NFL.

Or course it'll only last a couple years. Spring will come. But the "window" for this era is firmly propped open, and it's freezing and raining outside.

One variation on the keep them as babysitters while you add to the roster on OL argument would be to fire Pace after this year, and tell the new GM that he gets a jump on 2021 by drafting those developmental players but keeping Nagy etc for 2020 only. That might actually make the most sense.

[adam]

I think they all are going to get another year based on last year's production, unfortunately. However, I think they are going to clean house with some of the coaches, Special Teams (Tabor), gone, Heistand, gone. Furrey, gone, Ragone, gone. They have to clean up the positional coaches as they have the biggest impact on the individual performances of the units. Special Teams is atrocious, our WRs are undisciplined outside of Arob, and our QB has not progressed, so Ragone has to go.

Then for the roster, you release or trade Floyd, you resign Kwit, with Trevathan leaving. The only way you bring Trevathan or Prince back is if they take some huge salary cuts. You try to move Burton and Massie for anything, and cut Shaheen. I would try to resign HHCD with a longer deal so the cap hit isn't big next year. He has played way more consistent than Jackson this year and would be a nice security blanket. The only good thing about Jackson's play is the Bears should be able to sign him to a much lower contract than he would've received.

I would bring in Bridgewater, Tannehill, Keenum, Mariota or a younger guy like Mullens, McCarron or Cooper Rush to compete with Trubisky.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

It will be live and die with the combo (Pace, Nagy, and Mitch).  The Bears will benefit with a weaker schedule and can add some talent to key positions.  They need to improve Oline and TE, that is where I see the two 2nd rounders going.  Bring in a veteran QB and draft a high ceiling project in rd 4. Mitch may come around, if not someone solid will be behind him and a rookie.  I'd like to see a speed threat WR with a little more size brought in too.

[Bears4Ever_34]

What I would do:

-Fire Heistand and Chris Tabor

-Draft and sign a quarterback (Rookie and vet) to compete with Trubisky

-Invest heavily in the offensive line in free agency and the draft

-Find a pass catching TE

-Trade Tarik Cohen for a draft pick

[BearFan PHX]

all good points. I gotta agree that Hiestand has to go. But by the same token Nagy... I repeat myself...

[Mongo3451]

7 hours ago, BearFan NYC said:

all good points. I gotta agree that Hiestand has to go. But by the same token Nagy... I repeat myself...

I get it, but it's his second year.  We all know he got too cocky.  Let's see if he learns from it.  Aside from that abysmal pick Trubisky threw, he had a decent game.  The OL pass blocked a little better too.  I can only remember a couple of head scratcher plays.  I think Helfrich needs to go before anyone. 

[madlithuanian]

14 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

What I would do:

-Fire Heistand and Chris Tabor

-Draft and sign a quarterback (Rookie and vet) to compete with Trubisky

-Invest heavily in the offensive line in free agency and the draft

-Find a pass catching TE

-Trade Tarik Cohen for a draft pick

This!

In fact, I think Helfrich should be fired too.  Ragone as well.  The whole lot of coaches on the offensive side have been a massive failure, and it's unacceptable.

The hope of all hopes if that Nagy is young and learning and isn't the turd he appears to be at the moment.  If he is, we are doomed for at least another year, if not 2.