6-6 thru 12 games

[adam]

So here we are. 6-6 with 4 games to play. Not where we wanted to be, but I also didn't think GB and MIN would both be 8-3 at this time. That puts us a little further back than expected. If we could've eeked out that win against LAC or OAK, we would be sitting in a completely different spot right now. So to make the playoffs, our target is MIN, since we have the tie-breaker against them. All we have to do is beat them in Week 17 and end up with the same record as them. That means we can go into Week 17 one game back. That also means we need some help and for the Vikings to lose two more games than us in the next 5 games (for MIN). 

This week MIN gets to play in SEA. This should be a loss. It's a prime time game, and Cousins usually folds in these situations. It's also in SEA, which is always a tough place to play. Let's call this a loss. That puts the Bears 2 games back with 4 to play. Now remember, we only need to be within one game heading into Week 17. 

That means the Bears need to have a better record in Weeks 14-16 (3 games) than the Vikings.

In Week 14, next week, we get Dallas at home on Thursday Night. Dallas is really struggling, just had a team blow up in the locker room after the loss to the Bills. Game time temperature will be sub-40 and Dallas is a warm/dome team. Their kicker missed multiple FGs and the team got embarrassed against a team that is built like us. So the Bears have a fresh blueprint on how to dominate the Cowboys. Minnesota plays the Lions at home, I don't see the Lions winning, but crazier things have happened. So call this week a wash with both teams winning. It's a must-win for us considering Dallas may come into play for WC2.

For Week 15, the Bears play in Lambeau off a mini-bye while the Vikings play at the Chargers. For us, it's obviously a must-win. Interestingly, our game is not a prime time game, just a normal noon kickoff. So that's a plus for us. I think we get some revenge against the Pack where Leonard Floyd always has a great game. Guess what, the Vikings get to play the Chargers on SNF, another primetime game and another game for Cousins to choke. I see the Bears have a chance to pickup a game here. So the Bears pull within one game of the Vikings. Another note for us, Hicks might be back for this game, which would be huge against GB.

Now to Week 16, the Vikings get the Packers, on MNF. It a home game for Minnesota, but another prime time game, is another bad game for Cousins. This would the only week I would be rooting for the Packers to win (only if we are 1 game back at this point). Packers win. We have an opportunity to play KC at home on SNF. This is the Mitch Trubisky redemption game. If he can beat Mahomes on SNF in Week 16, while both teams are vying for a playoff spot, it would be huge for his confidence and at least a small reprieve for Pace for one week. I don't see the Bears winning, so this allows the Vikings to maintain a one-game lead on us heading into Week 17.

For Week 17, of all the remaining games, this is the only true must-win, but it's only that way if we are within one game or tied heading into Week 17. There is no scenario where we are up one game heading into Week 17, so no matter what, either we are playing spoiler at 7-8 or are 8-7 with a chance to sneak in at 9-7 with the tiebreaker over the Vikings. Bears win, 9-7, WC2 slot, which would setup to play DIV3 winner, GB in the first round, a team the Bears might have just beaten two weeks before. Talk about a storyline.

Now for 9-7 to work, MIN obviously has to lose to LAC, GB, and CHI, while the Bears have to win 3 of 4 against DAL, GB, KC, and MIN. Also, we have a couple of other teams to worry about that are lingering around WC2, LAR at 6-5, PHI at 5-6, and CAR at 5-6. Here is what those teams have remaining:

LAR: at ARZ, vs SEA, at DAL, at SF, vs ARZ. They will split with ARZ, and lose to SEA, DAL, and SF. At most 2 wins here to finish 8-8. I don't see them winning 3, but if they did, they have the head to head tiebreaker against us. 

PHI: at MIA, vs NYG, at WAS, vs DAL, at NYG. Philly has a favorable schedule, but they have looked terrible since beating us. They probably win 3 of 5, but that puts them at 8-8. I don't see them going 4-1 down the stretch, even with that schedule. If they do, they have the tie-breaker against us as well.

CAR: vs WAS, at ATL, vs SEA, at IND, vs NO. Carolina has the 2nd toughest schedule of these 3 teams and have lost 4 of their last 5 including games to NO and ATL who they play again. I don't see them beating SEA or even IND. So if they split NO and ATL and beat WAS, they end up at 8-8, going 3-2 to close out the season. I don't see them winning 4. Even if they did, we would have the tiebreaker against them at 9-7 overall with a better conference record.

One other team to watch is DAL, they are currently at 6-6, but if we are going to make the playoffs, a win against them is a must win game. So if we do beat them, they would go to 6-7 and then PHI comes into play for the division. The good thing is, since we would have beaten them head to head. Even if they win out after us and tie us at 9-7, we would have the head to head tie breaker for the Wild Card. This would only occur if Philly got hot and somehow finished with a better record than the Cowboys (DAL owns the tiebreakers).

Now most projections have us only winning one of our last 4 and finishing 7-9. That to me would be a disappointment. I would feel meh about 8-8, and I think 9-7 or 10-6 would be surprising.

 

[adam]

Check out the stats between Trubisky and Wentz since the start of last season:

Trubisky 519-795, 65.3%, 5419 yds, 37 TD, 19 INT, 6.8 Y/A; Rushing: 94-501 Yds, 4 TD
Wentz 522-789, 66.2%, 5604 yds, 38 TD, 13 INT, 7.1 Y/A, Rushing: 79-281 Yds, 1 TD

After the Thursday game, they are within 3 completions, 6 attempts, 185 yards, and 1 TD. Trubisky has 6 more INTs but also has 220 more rushing yards and 3 TDs. Outside of that, these guys are eerily similar. I know Wentz has been getting some flak, but I don't think I have ever seen a QB have each incompletion or INT analyzed like Trubisky. Have you?

[Mongo3451]

2 hours ago, adam said:

I know Wentz has been getting some flak, but I don't think I have ever seen a QB have each incompletion or INT analyzed like Trubisky. Have you?

You would be correct.  It definitely has to do with the success of Mahomes and the flash of Watson.  Both of those QB's had a much better situation to start their careers than Trubisky.  I still think our guy will be ok in the long run.

[adam]

So SEA and CHI took care of business. We are in much better shape at 7-6 on a mini-bye waiting for GB.

I know a lot of people are talking about how hard it is to win 6 in a row in the NFL, but looking at all the good teams in the league, that's exactly what they do. Here are all the largest win streaks by all the teams with at least 7 wins coming into today:

BAL 8 (current)
SF 8 
NE 8 
NO 6 
SEA 5 (current)
GB 4
MIN 4
PIT 4
KC 4
BUF 3 (current)
TEN 3 (current)
CHI 3 (current)
LAR 3
HOU 2 (current)

We can win out and only get to 6. If SEA beats LAR, they then they hit 6, making them the 5th team to reach 6 straight wins this season. I know the competition matters, but if you look at some of the other streaks, they also beat good teams (besides NE and SF who had creampuff schedules).

Baltimore's streak has been the most impressive, in their 8-game streak, they have beaten (PIT, SEA, NE, HOU, LAR, and SF), wow. So ultimately, it's very possible for us to beat GB, KC, and MIN to end the season.