Mahomes vs Watson vs Trubisky Last Quarter of Season

[adam]

Interestingly that Trubisky could've played the best of the three QB's over the last quarter of a season, yet the other two are MVP candidates and all of Trubisky's incompletions are scrutinized. Kind of funny.

1. Trubisky 94-145, 64.8%, 979 yds, 244.8 YPG, 6.8 Y/A, 8 TD, 4 INT, 1 Rushing TD, 9 sacks

2. Watson 77-112, 68.8%, 902 yds, 225.5 YPG, 8.1 Y/A, 7 TD, 2 INT, 1 FUM, 1 TD Reception, 11 sacks

3. Mahomes 80-122, 65.6%, 879 yds, 219.8 YPG, 7.2 Y/A, 6 TD, 1 INT, 1 Rushing TD, 4 sacks

Trubisky has more passing yards and TD's than two MVP candidates over the last 1/4 of the season.

 

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Interestingly that Trubisky could've played the best of the three QB's over the last quarter of a season, yet the other two are MVP candidates and all of Trubisky's incompletions are scrutinized. Kind of funny.

Even with a quarter of a game left, I doubt Watson will have 120+ more passing yards and two TD's in the 4th quarter. If he doesn't, Trubisky would end up with more yards and TD's than two MVP candidates over the last 1/4 of the season.

 

 

So far. 

Keep it in perspective... Watson is playing the #1 defense in the league (with Brady as the QB).  And all Mahomes did today was get to 70 TD passes in 27 games (which is an NFL record) while putting the Raiders over his knee by winning 40-9.  
 

Yes Trubisky looks ‘improved’ but we have to remember how he’s played for a majority of his career. 
Maybe this will be his renaissance... time will tell. 

[adam]

16 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

So far. 

Keep it in perspective... Watson is playing the #1 defense in the league (with Brady as the QB).  And all Mahomes did today was get to 70 TD passes in 27 games (which is an NFL record) while putting the Raiders over his knee by winning 40-9.  
 

Yes Trubisky looks ‘improved’ but we have to remember how he’s played for a majority of his career. 
Maybe this will be his renaissance... time will tell. 

I am just looking at the last 4 games for recency bias. Teams and coaches look at seasons in quarters. Well if you look at the last 4 game as a quarter, Trubisky is right there with the guys that are superior to him. Now he must do it down the stretch where every game is an elimination game.

In regards to opponents, New England is nowhere near an elite team or defense. They had arguably the easiest schedule in the last decade. This was their 7 games stretch earlier in the season: (MIA, NYJ, BUF, WAS, NYG, NYJ, CLE). Then they got PHI and DAL right when they were both struggling. Their signature win is over BUF 16-10. They got torched by Jackson and Watson. So I would say their defense is more about their schedule than their own talent. They will waltz into the playoffs around 13-3 and be ready to host the Divisional Round and AFC Championship. The funniest thing would be for the Bills to beat them in Week 16 and have the same record, which would give BUF the division and would make the Pats a WC. That would be cool.

For Mahomes, I am not arguing with his stats outside of the last quarter of a season where Trubisky has held his own vs his contemporaries.

Trubisky has 4 more games to silence the doubters and make some more believers. This is his shot. If he plays like a #2 overall pick, we can win the next 4. It would make a great storyline. Beat Dallas on Thursday; with a mini bye and Akiem Hicks back, beat GB in Lambeau, then beat Mahomes at Soldier Field and finish the run against Minnesota to get a least a wild card slot. Then go right back to play GB in Lambeau WC Weekend with Trevathan back off IR. Beat the Pack again, and end up in New Orleans to beat Pace's old team and an aging Brees, then beat Jimmy G in the NFCC to play against Lamar Jackson in the SB to get blown out 41-9.

 

[madlithuanian]

1 hour ago, adam said:

I am just looking at the last 4 games for recency bias. Teams and coaches look at seasons in quarters. Well if you look at the last 4 game as a quarter, Trubisky is right there with the guys that are superior to him. Now he must do it down the stretch where every game is an elimination game.

In regards to opponents, New England is nowhere near an elite team or defense. They had arguably the easiest schedule in the last decade. This was their 7 games stretch earlier in the season: (MIA, NYJ, BUF, WAS, NYG, NYJ, CLE). Then they got PHI and DAL right when they were both struggling. Their signature win is over BUF 16-10. They got torched by Jackson and Watson. So I would say their defense is more about their schedule than their own talent. They will waltz into the playoffs around 13-3 and be ready to host the Divisional Round and AFC Championship. The funniest thing would be for the Bills to beat them in Week 16 and have the same record, which would give BUF the division and would make the Pats a WC. That would be cool.

For Mahomes, I am not arguing with his stats outside of the last quarter of a season where Trubisky has held his own vs his contemporaries.

Trubisky has 4 more games to silence the doubters and make some more believers. This is his shot. If he plays like a #2 overall pick, we can win the next 4. It would make a great storyline. Beat Dallas on Thursday; with a mini bye and Akiem Hicks back, beat GB in Lambeau, then beat Mahomes at Soldier Field and finish the run against Minnesota to get a least a wild card slot. Then go right back to play GB in Lambeau WC Weekend with Trevathan back off IR. Beat the Pack again, and end up in New Orleans to beat Pace's old team and an aging Brees, then beat Jimmy G in the NFCC to play against Lamar Jackson in the SB to get blown out 41-9.

 

And ultimately, it's who get their respective cities a Lombardi.  So far, all are 0-for...   Next season should prove interesting to say the least.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, adam said:

...to play against Lamar Jackson in the SB to get blown out 41-9

That literally made me LOL...and almost spit coffee everywhere....

I get it and you're right, the old adage of you have to play up or down to the team you're against in order to win holds true.  NE has been able to do this time and again these last several years.  Trubisky has only really done it a few times last year and for the last couple games in a row this year...against Detroit and the Giants....who are a 5-18-1 combined.  If he is able to help steer a win against the Cowboys later this week and the others you mention afterwards, then I no doubt believe people will start to cast a more favorable light on him.  

[adam]

2 hours ago, madlithuanian said:

And ultimately, it's who get their respective cities a Lombardi.  So far, all are 0-for...   Next season should prove interesting to say the least.

That's true, and none seem any closer to winning it this year compared to last year. We are worse, KC is worse, and HOU is about the same but missing Watt and Clowney. Baltimore looks unbeatable, but it's hard to win like they have consistently. All it takes is for one hit on Jackson and they get RG3.

[adam]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

That literally made me LOL...and almost spit coffee everywhere....

I get it and you're right, the old adage of you have to play up or down to the team you're against in order to win holds true.  NE has been able to do this time and again these last several years.  Trubisky has only really done it a few times last year and for the last couple games in a row this year...against Detroit and the Giants....who are a 5-18-1 combined.  If he is able to help steer a win against the Cowboys later this week and the others you mention afterwards, then I no doubt believe people will start to cast a more favorable light on him.  

LOL, that was the intended effect.

To me, these next 4 games will define Trubisky's career, at least in Chicago. If he plays above average (so QBR 50.0/ QB Rating 88.6 and above) and helps the offense produce 20+ pts per game the remainder of the year, then I think you roll with him next year, and bring in a legit TE. If he underperforms, then he is, what he is. You bring in competition, draft one, and let the best one start next year. 

I don't think we need to go 4-0 to keep Trubisky, because there are too many other things that have to go right to go 4-0. However, the team has to go at least 3-1 for me to legitimately consider bringing him back. The worst outcome is if he plays well and we still lose. That would suck, but we would at least know he is not the problem. 

In 4 games, I want to see 10 TDs (Passing or Rushing), less than 3 INTs, 257 yards per game average, and a Y/A over 7.5.

 

[AZ54]

20 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

So far. 

Keep it in perspective... Watson is playing the #1 defense in the league (with Brady as the QB).  And all Mahomes did today was get to 70 TD passes in 27 games (which is an NFL record) while putting the Raiders over his knee by winning 40-9.  
 

Yes Trubisky looks ‘improved’ but we have to remember how he’s played for a majority of his career. 
Maybe this will be his renaissance... time will tell. 

Every time I watch Watson play I don't see a QB who is much different than what Trubisky shows on the field.  That includes the game against NE.  Sometimes he's holding onto the ball too long, sometimes he's inaccurate, sometimes he's really good.  Mahomes seems to read defenses better than both yet his numbers, both last year after he lost Kareem Hunt, and this year when he lost Hill fall into normal mix.     Among abusers there's a reason they kept Hill over Hunt.   Mahomes is at the top but IMO all three QBs can lead a winning roster.   That means Watson and then Trubisky need more help around them.    

I don't think this past game was Trubisky's renaissance but it might be the beginning of an upward trend that gets him there.   If he arrives there it won't be until next year.  

[adam]

10 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Every time I watch Watson play I don't see a QB who is much different than what Trubisky shows on the field.  That includes the game against NE.  Sometimes he's holding onto the ball too long, sometimes he's inaccurate, sometimes he's really good.  Mahomes seems to read defenses better than both yet his numbers, both last year after he lost Kareem Hunt, and this year when he lost Hill fall into normal mix.     Among abusers there's a reason they kept Hill over Hunt.   Mahomes is at the top but IMO all three QBs can lead a winning roster.   That means Watson and then Trubisky need more help around them.    

I don't think this past game was Trubisky's renaissance but it might be the beginning of an upward trend that gets him there.   If he arrives there it won't be until next year.  

AZ, I agree. I still find it funny that Watson gets all this credit, yet is throwing to Hopkins or Fuller, Mahomes is throwing to Hill and Kelce, and until last week Trubisky has only had ARob (who was not 100% last year). We got a glimpse of what he can do with some protection and a couple of competent receivers in ARob and Miller.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Gabriel's injury opened the door for Miller and Wimms.  Both had a good game and deserve more opportunities. Gabriel is a nice piece to the Wr core, but I am all for passing the torch and using him in special packages only giving the kids their chance.

[AZ54]

3 hours ago, adam said:

AZ, I agree. I still find it funny that Watson gets all this credit, yet is throwing to Hopkins or Fuller, Mahomes is throwing to Hill and Kelce, and until last week Trubisky has only had ARob (who was not 100% last year). We got a glimpse of what he can do with some protection and a couple of competent receivers in ARob and Miller.

One thing we know is that neither Mahomes nor Watson have been through the crucible like Trubisky has.  If he somehow survives through these mistakes and stays on the learning curve to where he needs to be we'll have a very mentally tough QB.  I watched Russell Wilson make several overthrows tonight and all he gets is a comment that it was just outside the receivers hands.  That is not meant to compare QBs it's a comparison of comments about bad passes.  Trubisky was about 6" behind AMiller, still hitting him perfectly in stride over the shoulder on one 30yd completion, and Troy Aikman was telling us how under-thrown the ball was.  He started to say similar stuff on the next 30yd pass to Miller then just moved on to talking about how David Blough could bring back Detroit to win the game.   When the facts don't fit your story just change the subject and ignore the facts.  

[madlithuanian]

The best thing that could happen is that Nagy learns from this season.  And that so does Tru.  It's within the realm of possibility, that as Hub Arkush makes mention of often, that Tru is immature.  He simply needs a little more time.  Maybe, just maybe, next year is when the light truly goes on.   

[Alaskan Grizzly]

14 hours ago, AZ54 said:

When the facts don't fit your story just change the subject and ignore the facts.

Might I recommend the series called ‘Football Aftershow on NBC Sports Chicago’? I subscribed to it recently on YouTube and the show offers some good no-nonsense perspective on how they think the team is performing.  The panel consists of Olin Kreutz, Matt Forte, Lance Briggs and Alex Brown.  So you’re not getting the alleged national bias  against the team but more a home-grown organic take on how it looks. Alex Brown, by the way, generally has the more critical m of reviews from the group.  As he does in the most recent installment below:  

 

[AZ54]

7 hours ago, madlithuanian said:

The best thing that could happen is that Nagy learns from this season.  And that so does Tru.  It's within the realm of possibility, that as Hub Arkush makes mention of often, that Tru is immature.  He simply needs a little more time.  Maybe, just maybe, next year is when the light truly goes on.   

Immature in what ways?  By all accounts he's putting in the time.  Is he immature like Goff who makes similar mistakes reading defenses?

[AZ54]

5 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Might I recommend the series called ‘Football Aftershow on NBC Sports Chicago’? I subscribed to it recently on YouTube and the show offers some good no-nonsense perspective on how they think the team is performing.  The panel consists of Olin Kreutz, Matt Forte, Lance Briggs and Alex Brown.  So you’re not getting the alleged national bias  against the team but more a home-grown organic take on how it looks. Alex Brown, by the way, generally has the more critical m of reviews from the group.  As he does in the most recent installment below:  

 

Good find, not a lot of analysis and no happy faces.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, AZ54 said:

Good find, not a lot of analysis and no happy faces.  

Yes so no ‘talking heads’ trying to give you expert analysis and make big money doing it. Just a couple of former players weighing in on the team they used to ply for.  Good perspective IMHO as they’ve ‘been there done that’ and probably have a strong interest in seeing the team succeed.  

[madlithuanian]

18 hours ago, AZ54 said:

Immature in what ways?  By all accounts he's putting in the time.  Is he immature like Goff who makes similar mistakes reading defenses?

The immature comment came from Hub, so I'm only speculating on what he means exactly.  And it would probably mean across the board.  He simply doesn't have enough experience both as a QB and a leader of men.  You can see how he tows the line in interviews, almost looking for permission to talk.  At some point, he should just be himself and not worry about it.  Same would go for how he play on the field.  Just speculation....  I can be an amazing medical student who puts in lots of study and still be too immature to actually perform surgery.  I think that's where he's at.  Has all the tools and desire...just needs it to "click"

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Something I heard on LeBetard and Stugotz yesterday was that since week 4 of this season, both Tom Brady and Trubisky have similar stats.   “How ‘bout that? “.

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Something I heard on LeBetard and Stugotz yesterday was that since week 4 of this season, both Tom Brady and Trubisky have similar stats.   “How ‘bout that? “.

lol in the worst year of Brady's career, aging and without and WRs LOL

Trubisky also threw more touchdown passes this year than Brett Favre did.

[adam]

Last 5 games (4-1):

Trubisky 117-176, 66.5%, 1223 yds, 244.6 YPG, 6.9 Y/A, 11 TD, 5 INT, 2 Rushing TD, 11 sacks

[adam]

Last two games:

Trubisky 52-69, 75.4%, 582 yds, 291 YPG, 8.4 Y/A, 6 TD, 2 INT, Rushing: 14-67 yds, 1 Rushing TD, 3 sacks

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Last two games:

Trubisky 52-69, 75.4%, 582 yds, 291 YPG, 8.4 Y/A, 6 TD, 2 INT, Rushing: 14-67 yds, 1 Rushing TD, 3 sacks

I was assured this couldn't happen against a top 10 defense.    

[McGowan]

Does Mitch still suck or is he turning a corner? He is trying to confuse. 

[BearFan2000]

On 12/4/2019 at 3:28 PM, madlithuanian said:

The immature comment came from Hub, so I'm only speculating on what he means exactly.  And it would probably mean across the board.  He simply doesn't have enough experience both as a QB and a leader of men.  You can see how he tows the line in interviews, almost looking for permission to talk.  At some point, he should just be himself and not worry about it.  Same would go for how he play on the field.  Just speculation....  I can be an amazing medical student who puts in lots of study and still be too immature to actually perform surgery.  I think that's where he's at.  Has all the tools and desire...just needs it to "click"

I think that's what Hub was getting at, not immaturity as a person or lack of dedication.  Perhaps a poor choice of wording by Hub but essentially it's about experience and growth as a QB/leader.  I feel like this season can be a good teaching lesson for Mitch.  Sometimes adversity is the best teacher.  His play the last few weeks and especially last night show he's improving.  Can he keep improving and more importantly play more consistently.  One thing that is noticeably different the last couple games is he looks like he's having fun and playing more loose.  I feel like he was playing tight and scared/afraid to make mistakes.  It's good to see him using his legs as a weapon in the offense more.  That is a dimension to his game that will help the offense by making defenses have to account for that possibility.  He's not a pocket passer and his comments and actions make it seem he was told not to run but to try to be a pass first QB.  Let him be who he is, and that's a mobile QB that can beat your with his legs and his arm.  

For Mitch with the remainder of the season it's all about keeping the arrow up and playing consistent football.  If he can do that we can win with him.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

40 minutes ago, Elgin Slim said:

Does Mitch still suck or is he turning a corner. He is trying to confuse. 

It’s a valid question.  Was watching that post game show I like with Briggs, Brown, Forte and Kreutz.  Briggs pointes out that we need to see continued play like last night from here on out to make a better determination.  
 

I think many of us are traumatically skeptical (I know I am) after all the years with Jay ‘Jekyll and Hyde’ Cutler and quite frankly similar play from Trubisky.  We see he’s capable; it’s just that can he maintain it?  We’ll know better after next week...and the week after...and the week after that.