Bears at Packers Week 15 - Playoff Week W-3 Official Game Thread (Sun, Dec 15, 12:00PM CT/FOX/Bears +4.5, O/U 40.5)

[adam]

Here we go! The real test starts this week. We need to take care of business this week or the remaining games will only matter for draft position. 

In our Week 1 loss, Montgomery only got 6 carries as Davis started. Miller only had 1 target and did not have a reception in Week 1. This week should be a lot different in terms of the offense. We are going to score some points.

On defense, the biggest change will be with our LB corps. However, with the forecast, running the ball is going to be critical and Kwit is a huge run stopper, which works in the Bears favor. KPL is the wild card, as is Tolliver. If those two guys can step up and we can get some production out of our TE's, I think we have a great chance to win.

Based on DVOA, Packers are 10th, 6th on Offense and 20th on Defense while the Bears are 15th, 23rd on Offense and 7th on Defense.  Last week the Bears were 19th, so the DAL game made us jump 4 slots, which is a big jump. Not that it's a big deal, but Trubisky is out of the cellar in QBR and DVOA, now he ranks 27th in both. Hopefully, he moves up the ranks again after this game as well. 

I am thinking this one will be close, but the Bears win 23-20.

[adam]

The line has slipped to Bears +4, so there is a lot of money on the Bears. 

With Akiem Hicks back and the way KPL played for Smith. I feel like the Bears have a chance to surprise a lot of people. Most of the national media is picking the Packers, and with the odds, the Bears come in as the underdog, which is something they seem to like.

For the weather, it looks like it is going to be in the high to mid-teens and sunny for most of the game. Only a little bit of wind and no snow, so the weather should not play a big factor.

Revised score, Bears 27-13.

[Stinger226]

Well first game while in Thailand.  1 am here. Everyone stays up until 5 am anyways. I hope they when , I guarantee they'll be a packers fan in the bar.

[adam]

5 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Well first game while in Thailand.  1 am here. Everyone stays up until 5 am anyways. I hope they when , I guarantee they'll be a packers fan in the bar.

Very cool, enjoy, GO BEARS!!!

[Alaskan Grizzly]

8 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I guarantee they'll be a packers fan in the bar.

No international incidents.  We don’t want to have to worry about you getting locked up in a Thai jail.  
 

Being superstitious, I’d prefer the Bears wear the retro away jerseys. So far they are 2-0 with them.  But they are 3-1 in division play too so there is that.  
 

[Boston Boxer]

That was not a penalty.   Text book tackle and was not interfered with since he caught the ball already.  Didn't take long for the refs to be horrible 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

7 minutes ago, Boston Boxer said:

That was not a penalty.   Text book tackle and was not interfered with since he caught the ball already.  Didn't take long for the refs to be horrible 

Yeah, totally agree. Even Blandino said as much. You’re welcome GB.

and... it looks as though Hicks is back to the bench ... for good.  Elbow seems to be bothering him. 

[Boston Boxer]

And it leads to a TD.  Ugh, I hate GB

[Alaskan Grizzly]

23 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

and... it looks as though Hicks is back to the bench ... for good.  Elbow seems to be bothering him. 

And I stand corrected.  Hicks is back! Thank gosh!

and how about Mitch?  Nice run, head down into Matinez... who is now out of the game.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Mitchell looking good today.  That 4th down chuck to Miller was nearly a thing of beauty.  
 

First impressions for me is that things appear to be clicking for Mitch.  
 

And not for nothing but they need to pull Amukamara.  His time is gone, Tolliver outplaying him. 

[Boston Boxer]

Yes, something definitely has clicked for Trubisky.   Good to see.  Bears laying another turd against GB

[ASHKUM BEAR]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Mitchell looking good today.  That 4th down chuck to Miller was nearly a thing of beauty.  
 

First impressions for me is that things appear to be clicking for Mitch.  
 

And not for nothing but they need to pull Amukamara.  His time is gone, Tolliver outplaying him. 

Prince is hurting the team being out there.  

Mitch playing well, if his ball placement was a little better he could be having a huge game. 

[ChileBear]

Mitch played well enough for me. I want to see him back next year. Miller, OMG. Where have you been?   Maybe with Nagy they move to the next level.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Getting some young db studs is a need.  Prince was falling down and missing too many tackles.  Tight end also a need cant count on our UDFA's to make the difference needed. Need more out of the RB.  Montgomery i dont think is the answer to be the bell cow, I still like him but not a difference maker.  

[Connorbear]

Trubisky wasn't the problem today. We have a better roster 1 to 52. They just happen to have one of the best QBs of all time playing for them right now. 

Peace

[Bears4Ever_34]

Bears got dominated on both sides of the LOS tonight. The Packers had more hurries, sacks, and tackles for loss than the Bears did.. and it was by a lot. 

Trubisky had two pretty fluky interceptions that make his numbers look a lot worse than the game would indicate. At the end of the day, he's likely never going to be the 'win because of' quarterback like they thought they had with the #2 pick. Unless they find out how to run the ball next year, the same thing is going to happen in 2020.

It is absolutely imperative that they fire Harry Heistand and invest heavily in the offensive line in the offseason. I think we've also figured out that David Montgomery is not a high ceiling RB. He is so god damn slow, and I think would be best served as a change of pace guy to somebody with some actual speed. He should be the Packer's version of Jamal Williams to somebody's Aaron Jones.. When you have a quarterback who is not an explosive play maker, you can't pair that up with a running back that doesn't have game breaking ability playing behind him.

[BearFan PHX]

I agree about the OL. It's so painfully obvious, anyone can see it. I assume that includes the staff.

As for Montgomery, I couldnt disagree more strongly. In time, I believe you yourself will regret saying it. What I see is an incredibly hard worker with amazing vision and rare ability to make cuts who has ZERO holes. Give this guy even an average run look, and he will make you buy his jersey.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Montgomery i dont think is the answer to be the bell cow, I still like him but not a difference maker. 

Have to agree that Montgomery is more like Kamara was in his early years. Not quite ready to be the do-all back the Bears need...yet.  Needs someone who can get tougher yards between the tackles like Ingram was before he left NO.

Howard might be an FA next year??? 

[BearFan PHX]

we talk about blame. rightly so. just saw this on youtube, and I think the voters nailed it.

 

[Bears4Ever_34]

13 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Have to agree that Montgomery is more like Kamara was in his early years. Not quite ready to be the do-all back the Bears need...yet.  Needs someone who can get tougher yards between the tackles like Ingram was before he left NO.

Howard might be an FA next year??? 

Kamara was offensive rookie of the year, though.. Montgomery is nowhere near as dynamic. 

I wonder how many great RB's there are in this league that run 4.6 40's. It's too much of a limiting factor in his game, which is why I think his ceiling is so low.

[BearFan PHX]

no point in arguing it now, but I believe strongly that in the future you will change your mind.

[AZ54]

1 hour ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

Kamara was offensive rookie of the year, though.. Montgomery is nowhere near as dynamic. 

I wonder how many great RB's there are in this league that run 4.6 40's. It's too much of a limiting factor in his game, which is why I think his ceiling is so low.

Montgomery will not be HoF caliber but he can be the bell cow because of his versatility.  He needs a Kamara type to handle 10 snaps each game.  Cohen is not that player, he's the 3rd down specialist.  

[AZ54]

6 hours ago, Boston Boxer said:

That was not a penalty.   Text book tackle and was not interfered with since he caught the ball already.  Didn't take long for the refs to be horrible 

Two penalties...one called one (Pass Interference) not called at the end of the game.  If grabbing a WRs arm before the ball arrives is not PI then what is?  

[adam]

We just didn't have the mojo this year. In this game, it was the officials getting calls blatantly wrong (Patterson's call was the ballgame, that was potentially a 14-pt swing) to guys slipping all over the field. How about the missed INTs? Kwit had one hit him in both hands. Fuller also missed one at his feet. 

The O-Line was downright terrible. Coward and Daniels kept getting beat easily and then Leno and Lucas started the revolving door play. If they can rush 4 and drop 7 with 6 DBs, that is tough to throw against. Mitch outplayed Rodgers and gave the team a chance to at least tie. He had some laser throws and some others that were A+ quality. He is still a work in progress, but a 300 yard game in those conditions is pretty good. 

I can't believe it ended on a series of laterals with Horsted getting tackled and then just throwing it to the ground as he missed a wide-open Robinson to his right who walks in for an easy 6. Unbelievable. Also, on that play, Miller saw the ball on the ground at his feet and actually jumped away from it allowing for an easy recovery for GB. That play was a microcosm of the season. Very chaotic with a bad ending. 

Our defense played ok, but you never like to see 21 pts and 3 TDs. Prince is a liability and there is no way he is back. Floyd too. He gets manhandled on every play. Mack can't make that amount of money and be held off the stat sheet again. Not even some tackles? That signing is starting to get stale. Hicks played a hell of a game and battled thru injury all game, that was impressive.

The O-Line, DBs, and TEs are the top priorities. I like what I saw from Kwit and KPL again, they didn't look overmatched, so if you can bring them back with Roquan, ILB is set. For OLB, we need some fresh blood across from Mack (goodbye Floyd and Lynch). For Safeties, now I am seeing the problem here. HHCD and EJack are too close to the same style player. We need someone who can cover TEs, but also better against the run. I don't think HHCD comes back. For CBs, we need an upgrade across from Fuller, Prince is a liability, I like what I saw from Tolliver but Skrine has returned to his old ways. Skrine cannot guard anyone it seems anymore. I don't know what happened, but between him and Prince, there was always an open receiver.

You hate to lose to GB, but making the playoffs was always a long shot, especially after the Vikings wins against Seattle last week and LAC this week. So now we play spoiler, but with us being eliminated, any guys with nagging injuries will probably go on IR. After seeing Hicks in pain today, I would not be surprised if he went back on IR. I would also expect Trevathan to go on IR to bring up another body to take a look at. I would also shelf Gabriel and Prince.

Onto the draft, the Raiders also lost so we are basically locked into two picks in the late 40's.

[adam]

17 minutes ago, AZ54 said:

Two penalties...one called one (Pass Interference) not called at the end of the game.  If grabbing a WRs arm before the ball arrives is not PI then what is?  

There was also a blatant block in the back on the long kick return. Our player (#53) was pushed straight in the numbers right at the point of attack and no flag. Then you take the Patterson one which could've been a 14 pt swing and the ARob one where the guys has one arm hooked and the other around his back, and the Bears win by 10+. 

It's frustrating to say that the team needs to fight thru that and win, when GB doesn't have to. On an even officiated game, the Bears win with the same effort.