QB DVOA Rankings

[adam]

So I was looking into the free-agent QBs going into 2020. There are a lot of options with potential huge differences in salary cap hits. Take a look at the list below sorted by DVOA. 

The guys with asterisks are free agents and the guys with a carrot are potential cap casualties. To me, there is no point to add a guy who would essentially have the same production as Trubisky.

Looking at the guys in his group, those are all the same type of performers, all underwhelming. So I would target no one worse than Keenum out of the available pool of (Keenum, Brissett, Rivers, Bridgewater, Moore, Carr, and Tannehill). If you reduced the candidate pool by age first, that would remove Rivers and Moore, and you would be left with Keenum, Brissett, Bridgewater, Carr, and Tannehill. Carr and Brissett are only available if they are cut. I am assuming Tannehill goes back to TEN, so that leaves only Keenum and Bridgewater. I would actually be ok with either as Keenum always seemed to have the Bears number. Both would be instant upgrades over Trubisky.

If we decided the window is closing sooner than later, then maybe we look at someone like Rivers or Moore for a 2-3 year deal and see what happens. 

DVOA +30% (All-Pro)
Schaub, Brees*, Jackson, Mahomes

DVOA 20-30% (Pro-Bowl)
Stafford, Prescott*, Tannehill*

DVOA 10-20% (Franchise QB)
Carr^, Moore*, Bridgewater*, Cousins, Rodgers, Lock

DVOA 0-10% (Reliable Starter)
Watson, Garoppolo, Ryan, Rivers*, Brissett^, Brady*, Goff

DVOA -10-0% (Average Starter)
Wentz, Keenum*, Fitzpatrick^, Murray, Minshew, Mayfield, Newton^, Winston*

DVOA -20-10% (Inconsistent Starter)
J. Allen, Dalton^, Trubisky, Hodges, Manning*, Mariota*, Blough, Flacco^, Jones

DVOA -30-20% (Backup QB)
Darnold, Foles^, Rudolph, Driskell, K. Allen

DVOA -40-30% (Practice Squad QB)
NONE

DVOA -50-40% (QB as a holder)
Haskins

DVOA -60-50% (Holder on windy kickoffs)
NONE

DVOA -70-60% (it would be more efficient to only have 10 on offense than to use this player)
Rosen 

I would avoid anyone in Trubisky's group and below, and would be cautious of Newton and Winston as they are not much better than Trubisky but will command a huge salary. 

Carr would be interesting if the Raiders let him go. It would be nice to get a QB of that caliber. 

Lastly, Dalton, Manning, Mariota, and Flacco all got benched for their performances and Trubisky gets reamed (rightfully so), but guys like Jones, Darnold, Allen, and Haskins get a free pass? Most of those guys are worse than Trubisky.

[Mongo3451]

Stay the course, but bring in a vet.

[adam]

One thing to point out, Watson is not a top 10 QB in DVOA. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Looks like the Bears cleared a little extra cap space for 2020 by converting some of Fullers guarantee to a bonus. Maybe some of it will be for a vet QB?  Not sure a vet will makes us much better unless they can get better run/pass blocking and also commit more to running the ball. 

I have recently heard how hard it is to block a RPO offense.  The linemen have to tip toe not knowing how to block. Cannot road grade and get too far down field when the QB opts to pass and vice versa. 

If they go the vet route, they will be giving that offense uo and MT in my opinion. Phillip Rivers will not come here to run Nagys offense. 

[adam]

21 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Looks like the Bears cleared a little extra cap space for 2020 by converting some of Fullers guarantee to a bonus. Maybe some of it will be for a vet QB?  Not sure a vet will makes us much better unless they can get better run/pass blocking and also commit more to running the ball. 

I have recently heard how hard it is to block a RPO offense.  The linemen have to tip toe not knowing how to block. Cannot road grade and get too far down field when the QB opts to pass and vice versa. 

If they go the vet route, they will be giving that offense uo and MT in my opinion. Phillip Rivers will not come here to run Nagys offense. 

Yeah, very few QBs would be successful with this garbage O-Line. However, if we can get one of the QBs that have played above-average in DVOA, they would be an upgrade over Trubisky immediately. Then you add an improved O-Line and the offense magically becomes a top-15 unit.

[adam]

How bad was our offense?

Our O-Line is ranked 31st overall.

Trubisky is ranked 28th at -11.7%. 

Montgomery has a -17.1% DVOA thru Week 16. The 3rd worst or 40th ranked RB in the league. Talk about an anemic run game.

Burton was the worst TE in the league with a -54.1% DVOA. That is historically low, like the worst TE performance in 20 years. You almost can't play any worse at that position.

Robinson was the 39th ranked WR with a 1.8% DVOA. Miller was 60th at -7.3%. With 32 teams, we literally have the worst tandem WR1 and WR2 in the league in DVOA.

Someone needs to be held accountable for this train wreck. 

[killakrzydav]

That’s scary bad Adam

[adam]

9 hours ago, killakrzydav said:

That’s scary bad Adam

It's brutal, even ARob, who most believed was a Pro Bowler was not even a top 32 WR. Burton's was laughable, dead last. It's funny because Trubisky was the lone bright spot in the DVOA rankings and he was 28th. 

[AZ54]

On 12/30/2019 at 8:39 AM, adam said:

It's brutal, even ARob, who most believed was a Pro Bowler was not even a top 32 WR. Burton's was laughable, dead last. It's funny because Trubisky was the lone bright spot in the DVOA rankings and he was 28th. 

    (Pace on Nagy)