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Preseason Predictions


adam

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So the Bears finished 8-8, and actually beat SI.com's prediction by a game. Football Outsiders nailed it. Sporting News had the highest projection at 11 wins.

Here were some predictions:
Sporting News 11-5
ESPN 10-6
CBS 9-7
Football Outsiders 8-8
SI.com 7-9

This year was a disappointment and the team was literally two plays away from finishing 10-6 (LAC and OAK games). Just think how good this team would be with a top-15 offense.  They played so bad, yet won 8 games. That ultimately means we can only go up from here. With the leaner schedule next year, that should be worth at least a game and if we play better on offense, that's another two games. That's 3 wins with very little change to the team. 

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2 hours ago, BearFan NYC said:

they will; HAVE to revamp the OL. I dont care WHAT the cap issue is with Leno, he HAS to be gone. And along with most of his friends too.

Leno put on a show today as he was clearly applying for a new job.   I'm not even sure how Trubisky is supposed to look downfield first.  I'd be looking over at Leno to see if he'll actually block someone, then I'd look downfield.   

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there was a handoff to the left side today. Leno and Coward took the DT together, and left both the DE and OLB completely unblocked to the side the RB was running.

That says everything. I mean, even in pee wee football they know better than that.

Leno not only cant complete a block, he doesnt know who he is supposed to block, in even the most obvious situations.

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7 hours ago, BearFan NYC said:

there was a handoff to the left side today. Leno and Coward took the DT together, and left both the DE and OLB completely unblocked to the side the RB was running.

That says everything. I mean, even in pee wee football they know better than that.

Leno not only cant complete a block, he doesnt know who he is supposed to block, in even the most obvious situations.

Coward was out yesterday. I believe you meant Daniels. 

Peace

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The O-Line is a huge problem. Leno also completely whiffed on a few edge guys who literally ran right around him. I believe he was the guilty party on the strip sack too.

The two guys I want gone for next season at a minimum are Leno and Floyd. Just replace those two guys with league-average players and we are a 10 win team.

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7 hours ago, Connorbear said:

Coward was out yesterday. I believe you meant Daniels. 

Peace

yup youre right! Coward was on the right side before he went out and Larsen took over. What I saw was the left guard (AND LENO!) so youre right it totally was Daniels.

And Daniels seems to have been doing the right thing.

LENO!!

 

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On 12/30/2019 at 8:37 AM, adam said:

The O-Line is a huge problem. Leno also completely whiffed on a few edge guys who literally ran right around him. I believe he was the guilty party on the strip sack too.

The two guys I want gone for next season at a minimum are Leno and Floyd. Just replace those two guys with league-average players and we are a 10 win team.

Floyd is a league average player, just not as a pass rusher.  I think he's actually above average on run defense and pass coverage.  Ironically his run defense was supposed to be his huge weakness during the draft. It's the only thing he does well with his length to gain leverage.  Pay him for first and second down and go find someone for 3rd downs.  

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I agree that Floyd is worth keeping if his cap number is more friendly.

We may not be able to cut Leno. The cap hit might be too much. So you just let him sit on the bench, because there is NO reason to put that guy on the field for us ever again.

Unfortunately, if a player quits the NFL, or is killed by a crazed fan (lol), the team is still on the hook for the cap hit.

The only way around it is a trade. And wed have to give up a lot to move Leno. It'd be Leno plus draft picks for a lower pick, just to get him off of our cap. Its not gonna happen.

But if we have to pay it either way, then at least we dont need to put him on the field.

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OK, I did some digging, and here's the deal:

https://overthecap.com/player/charles-leno-jr/3185/

Leno's cap number goes from $3.3 Million this past year to -- GULP -- $10,300,000 for 2020.

If we cut him we are on the hook for $7.4 Million - a savings of almost $3 Million dollars.

Further if we designate him a post June 1st cut, then he would count $2.3 million against this years cap, and $5.1 Million against the 2021 cap.

Since Pace is fighting for his life, he might want to do that, and clear up $5 Million in cap room for Leno's replacement in Free Agency.

If one assumes that the odds of Trubisky earning a top franchise QB salary in 2021 are low, then we can afford to push the $5.1 Million to 2021. At that point Trubisky will either have signed an extension that isn't a top 5 QB in the league number, or we will be paying a rookie QB. Either way we will have room for that cap hit.

GOOD BYE LENO.

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6 hours ago, BearFan NYC said:

OK, I did some digging, and here's the deal:

https://overthecap.com/player/charles-leno-jr/3185/

Leno's cap number goes from $3.3 Million this past year to -- GULP -- $10,300,000 for 2020.

If we cut him we are on the hook for $7.4 Million - a savings of almost $3 Million dollars.

Further if we designate him a post June 1st cut, then he would count $2.3 million against this years cap, and $5.1 Million against the 2021 cap.

Since Pace is fighting for his life, he might want to do that, and clear up $5 Million in cap room for Leno's replacement in Free Agency.

If one assumes that the odds of Trubisky earning a top franchise QB salary in 2021 are low, then we can afford to push the $5.1 Million to 2021. At that point Trubisky will either have signed an extension that isn't a top 5 QB in the league number, or we will be paying a rookie QB. Either way we will have room for that cap hit.

GOOD BYE LENO.

I agree, I feel like it would be better to take the cap hit, like you said a post June 1st cut would allow us to split it up.  Keeping him just to avoid a cap hit for cutting him and just not playing him doesn't make sense wastes a spot on the 53 man roster for a guy your not playing.  Just admit the contract we gave him was a mistake, take the hit and use his roster spot for someone who can help the team.

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2 hours ago, BearFan2000 said:

I agree, I feel like it would be better to take the cap hit, like you said a post June 1st cut would allow us to split it up.  Keeping him just to avoid a cap hit for cutting him and just not playing him doesn't make sense wastes a spot on the 53 man roster for a guy your not playing.  Just admit the contract we gave him was a mistake, take the hit and use his roster spot for someone who can help the team.

I would be all in on cutting Leno. If you can bring in a league average guy, we magically improve.

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10 hours ago, adam said:

I would be all in on cutting Leno. If you can bring in a league average guy, we magically improve.

I hate the cap hit but it's hard to disagree after watching his turnstile moves all year.   Even a modest level of proficiency and consistency like only getting beat off the edge would help Trubisky.   

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15 hours ago, AZ54 said:

I hate the cap hit but it's hard to disagree after watching his turnstile moves all year.   Even a modest level of proficiency and consistency like only getting beat off the edge would help Trubisky.   

and imagine if the new guy could run block.

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