SB - Torn, feeling like an a-hole...

[madlithuanian]

I think, as a Bears fan, and feeling slightly petty about things...I want both teams to lose.  

A - SF, while they have Robbie (and that's about the only reason I don't mind them winning), they are where we want to be.  The story of how Lynch fleeced us, how we let Mostert go, etc...will be played over and over again.  I kind of don't want to hear it.

B - KC, yup...we will forever hear the Bears took Tru over Mahomes.  That dead horse will be flogged ad nausea.  Then, Tyreek Hill having domestic problems...kind of hard to root for the guy.  That said, Reid seems like a likable chap, and I don't mind him finally getting one, thus validating Nagy?    And Mahomes pissed me off flashing the "10" bull@hit when he played us.  Still bugs me.  

So, I want both to lose.  But, I think my appreciation for what Gould did for us leans the balance of the scale in SF's favor.

[adam]

I don't mind SF winning as they are less related to the Bears than KC is. It would be a plus to see Gould kick a GW FG in the SB, he deserves it. Lynch picked Solomon Thomas at #3 and also passed on Mahomes and Watson, then even traded away the pick that the Saints used on Kamara, so that storyline is fairly weak. Mostert is on his 7th team at 27 yrs old. That is the Shanahan zone blocking scheme at work that has produced a ton of 1,000 yard backs. I could care less about Mostert.

Now for KC, I don't want them to win. Hill should not even be playing in the league, and Mahomes is as lucky as he is good. Eventually, that will catch up with him. I do not want to see Mahomes win a SB. If he doesn't get one before his rookie contract ends, he may never get one. It looks like he is set to make $40M a year, which would be insane but justified. However, you have to take away 3-4 high end starters off the team to make that fit in the cap. So if they can win like that fine, but I don't want to see them win when he is under his rookie deal. Reid is a good coach, but it helps having good players. It's not like he is getting to Super Bowls with duds. 

Also, SF will more than likely win with rushing and defense (the way it should be). That would be cool to see that win out over KC's out score you mode, even though the high scoring games are exciting, it does get a little old when teams just go down and score every drive without any defensive resistance. 

Lastly, wouldn't it be awesome if Mahomes completely blew it in the Super Bowl? I doubt it happens, but that would be the best storyline. Mahomes chokes and hands SF the SB on a Gould GW, SF 23-20.

[madlithuanian]

52 minutes ago, adam said:

I don't mind SF winning as they are less related to the Bears than KC is. It would be a plus to see Gould kick a GW FG in the SB, he deserves it. Lynch picked Solomon Thomas at #3 and also passed on Mahomes and Watson, then even traded away the pick that the Saints used on Kamara, so that storyline is fairly weak. Mostert is on his 7th team at 27 yrs old. That is the Shanahan zone blocking scheme at work that has produced a ton of 1,000 yard backs. I could care less about Mostert.

Now for KC, I don't want them to win. Hill should not even be playing in the league, and Mahomes is as lucky as he is good. Eventually, that will catch up with him. I do not want to see Mahomes win a SB. If he doesn't get one before his rookie contract ends, he may never get one. It looks like he is set to make $40M a year, which would be insane but justified. However, you have to take away 3-4 high end starters off the team to make that fit in the cap. So if they can win like that fine, but I don't want to see them win when he is under his rookie deal. Reid is a good coach, but it helps having good players. It's not like he is getting to Super Bowls with duds. 

Also, SF will more than likely win with rushing and defense (the way it should be). That would be cool to see that win out over KC's out score you mode, even though the high scoring games are exciting, it does get a little old when teams just go down and score every drive without any defensive resistance. 

Lastly, wouldn't it be awesome if Mahomes completely blew it in the Super Bowl? I doubt it happens, but that would be the best storyline. Mahomes chokes and hands SF the SB on a Gould GW, SF 23-20.

I like your assessment!

[Alaskan Grizzly]

I’m for KC pretty much due to Reid.  And honestly I like Mahomes.  Not sure I would think he’s all lucky.  Might consider it on the same plane as Rodgers who somehow miraculously has pulled out numerous last minute wins ala Hail Mary passes.  Is it luck or being fortunate?  
 

Would the players supporting Reid and Mahomes be as good as they are without  either of them?   Not all that long ago they had Alex Smith as their perennial starter, even with some of the current skill players on the roster, and how far did they get?  They got to the AFC Championship last year (Mahomes second season) and this year...advanced another step.  
 

I agree about the running scheme in SF as it is so much like watching Denver when Shannahan’s dad was coaching there.  You could almost literally plug and play any RB in that scheme and have success.   It’s really amazing how well Kyle is duplicating his dads success.  
 

The one intriguing and trivial thing to me will be Jimmy G.  In the NFC Championship game he threw a total of EIGHT passes.  Remember early on in the Bears season when Nagy did the exact opposite of that and failed?  But I digress.  Either the low number of passes was indicative of just how dominant their running scheme is, or pure genius .  Meaning Shannahan didn’t want to tip his hand about how really lethal Jimmy G can be.  Guess we’ll find out. 

[AZ54]

7 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

 Meaning Shannahan didn’t want to tip his hand about how really lethal Jimmy G can be. 

Can't....stop.....laughing.  

[adam]

12 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I’m for KC pretty much due to Reid.  And honestly I like Mahomes.  Not sure I would think he’s all lucky.  Might consider it on the same plane as Rodgers who somehow miraculously has pulled out numerous last minute wins ala Hail Mary passes.  Is it luck or being fortunate?  
 

Would the players supporting Reid and Mahomes be as good as they are without  either of them?   Not all that long ago they had Alex Smith as their perennial starter, even with some of the current skill players on the roster, and how far did they get?  They got to the AFC Championship last year (Mahomes second season) and this year...advanced another step.  
 

I agree about the running scheme in SF as it is so much like watching Denver when Shannahan’s dad was coaching there.  You could almost literally plug and play any RB in that scheme and have success.   It’s really amazing how well Kyle is duplicating his dads success.  
 

The one intriguing and trivial thing to me will be Jimmy G.  In the NFC Championship game he threw a total of EIGHT passes.  Remember early on in the Bears season when Nagy did the exact opposite of that and failed?  But I digress.  Either the low number of passes was indicative of just how dominant their running scheme is, or pure genius .  Meaning Shannahan didn’t want to tip his hand about how really lethal Jimmy G can be.  Guess we’ll find out. 

In terms of luck, Mahomes throws up a lot of deep balls that his receivers make ridiculous catches on. He seems to also get the benefit of the doubt on a lot of missed holding calls, similar to Rodgers. For production of skill players, Kelce and Hill are still All-Pros outside of KC and Mahomes. If you need a comparison, just look at what Matt Moore did when Mahomes was out, his comp% was within a point, his QB Rating was 100.9 to Mahomes 105.3 and he had 4 TDs to 0 INTs, a better ratio than Mahomes did. Mahomes only had 26 TDs this year, compared to 50 in 2018. They get a lot of explosive pass plays, which pads the numbers a lot. In comparison the Bears were the worst team in explosive plays in 2019: https://www.sharpfootballstats.com/explosive-play-rankings--off-.html

To me this was our biggest weakness, with the run or the pass, we were 31st in explosive runs and explosive passes. Interestingly enough, SF is 2nd in the league in explosive plays they were #1 in explosive passes and 7th in runs. Baltimore led the league and Tennessee was 3rd, followed by Dallas and Seattle. Dallas was the only non-playoff team. That is what we were missing.

I don't think they were intentionally hiding Jimmy G, I just think that Shanahan is a great coach and has a feel for the game. There was no need to pass when they couldn't stop the run. It burns more clock and there is less chance of a turnover. If SF can limit the explosive plays, KC's offense shuts down. They live off of those. Based on what SF has done to most teams this year and with the extra week of rest (defenders seem to need more), I think they win. Now if they let up a few big plays, especially ones that go the distance, I could see KC winning. To me that's the game (SF wins if they limit big plays, KC wins if they get 2-3 big plays).

[Mongo3451]

In the last 20 years, 3 offensive teams have won it all.  I'm going niners because their defense is top 5 of those Superbowl defenses of the last 20.

It's crazy though because that Chiefs offense is ridiculous.

[adam]

17 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

In the last 20 years, 3 offensive teams have won it all.  I'm going niners because their defense is top 5 of those Superbowl defenses of the last 20.

It's crazy though because that Chiefs offense is ridiculous.

Yeah, I am sticking with my prediction, SF 23-20. SF slows the game down and takes the ball out of Mahomes' hands for most of the game. 

[BearFan PHX]

3 hours ago, adam said:

Yeah, I am sticking with my prediction, SF 23-20. SF slows the game down and takes the ball out of Mahomes' hands for most of the game. 

that will be their plan.

But of course you gotta make a lot of first downs to make that work, and every 3rd down is a chance to end up punting it to Mahomes, who might well score a touchdown quickly. And if you get down 14, eating all that clock starts to work against you.

From right here, this looks like a classic heavyweight prize fight. They both have their strategies, they both have their edges. Maybe it will come down to what kind of winner Mahomes is. We saw that in the playoffs...

[McGowan]

On 1/31/2020 at 2:45 PM, adam said:

I don't mind SF winning as they are less related to the Bears than KC is. It would be a plus to see Gould kick a GW FG in the SB, he deserves it. Lynch picked Solomon Thomas at #3 and also passed on Mahomes and Watson, then even traded away the pick that the Saints used on Kamara, so that storyline is fairly weak. Mostert is on his 7th team at 27 yrs old. That is the Shanahan zone blocking scheme at work that has produced a ton of 1,000 yard backs. I could care less about Mostert.

Now for KC, I don't want them to win. Hill should not even be playing in the league, and Mahomes is as lucky as he is good. Eventually, that will catch up with him. I do not want to see Mahomes win a SB. If he doesn't get one before his rookie contract ends, he may never get one. It looks like he is set to make $40M a year, which would be insane but justified. However, you have to take away 3-4 high end starters off the team to make that fit in the cap. So if they can win like that fine, but I don't want to see them win when he is under his rookie deal. Reid is a good coach, but it helps having good players. It's not like he is getting to Super Bowls with duds. 

Also, SF will more than likely win with rushing and defense (the way it should be). That would be cool to see that win out over KC's out score you mode, even though the high scoring games are exciting, it does get a little old when teams just go down and score every drive without any defensive resistance. 

Lastly, wouldn't it be awesome if Mahomes completely blew it in the Super Bowl? I doubt it happens, but that would be the best storyline. Mahomes chokes and hands SF the SB on a Gould GW, SF 23-20.

Wasn't it revealed that Hill's baby mama is cray-cray after that investigation? Everyone is so quick to judge and throw people under the bus instead of letting investigations play out. I thought she literally tried to frame him after an accident, the staged phone call where she edited a conversation to make him look like a monster. Kinda puts the other accusation she levied at him from college in doubt as well. It could be a case of he dumped her, is doing his fatherly responsibilities and she's beyond livid that she's not living the high life as the wife of an NFL star. 

[Bill]

I think this SF def. could start making a claim for true greatness if they can keep Mahomes in check.  Great def. don't lose SB's.   As for KC I don't ever count them out anymore.  I think it will be a slug fest. If KC gets out of the gate better than they have all post season it could make it tough.   If the Niner's can keep it close in the first half and have their running game going it could be tough for KC to win.  I think KC has the ability to come back on any team any time.  Don't know if the Niners have shown that yet.  If they can, we might be looking at a tough out for the next few years.  I don't really care who wins.  Living in Cali it can be tough lisening to Niners fans but will be well deserved if they win.  Would like to see Reid win one.  He might be running out of time with all the weights he's had on his body.  Sorry, just can't be healthy with the stress of being a head coach.  Would love to see a 21-17 KC win.  Would keep me in the lead of the pool i'm in.

 

[adam]

Mahomes only has 2x 300 yard passing games in his last 8. In those 8 games, he had 4 with a QB Rating under 84.0 (Trubisky had a 83.0 QB Rating on the season). So in 4 games he played like Trubisky and in 4 games he played like Drew Brees. So it will ultimately come down to which Mahomes shows up or what Mahomes SF creates. Should be a good one.

[adam]

One quarter left. SF 20-10. KC with the ball at their 46. Mahomes threw a terrible INT on the last drive that resulted in a SF TD. If that was Trubisky, they would be talking about it every play.

His QB Rating is 62.9, with 5.8 Y/A. 

[Bill]

What a difference a quarter makes. And they were talking about how poor Mahomes was playing.  There is still no way in the world I would not pick Mahomes or Watson if the draft was redone.  But it is what it is and I only hope they get thinks fixed next year.  So much for D winning championships.  Niners had the game in hand and could not close the deal.

[adam]

Just now, Bill said:

What a difference a quarter makes. And they were talking about how poor Mahomes was playing.  There is still no way in the world I would not pick Mahomes or Watson if the draft was redone.  But it is what it is and I only hope they get thinks fixed next year.  So much for D winning championships.  Niners had the game in hand and could not close the deal.

OMG no, absolutely picking Mahomes or Watson.

However, Mahomes still ended the game with only a 78.1 QB Rating. SF completely crapped the bed, just like Shanahan did with Atlanta. He coaches scared and loses. They made Jimmy G play QB and SF got owned. Jimmy G ends with a 69.2 QB Rating, Grossman-esque. I was not impressed with either QB. Mahomes only hit wide-open receivers. 

[Bill]

13 hours ago, adam said:

OMG no, absolutely picking Mahomes or Watson.

However, Mahomes still ended the game with only a 78.1 QB Rating. SF completely crapped the bed, just like Shanahan did with Atlanta. He coaches scared and loses. They made Jimmy G play QB and SF got owned. Jimmy G ends with a 69.2 QB Rating, Grossman-esque. I was not impressed with either QB. Mahomes only hit wide-open receivers. 

Yes but he made the plays he had to when he had to.  Three great throws that most QB's have trouble making against the best D in football.  And he was able to move around to get time unlike Rogers in the NFC champ.  Ten min left up by ten and they give up 21 points to a team that had not been playing good.  Thats enough example for me to show how great is and will still become.