Trubisky comparison and available QBs

[adam]

I am going to post some info in here to discuss the QB situation. First I was looking back at some past League MVPs, and one season popped out at me. Take a look at this recent league MVP and two similar Pro Bowl QBs from different years:

League MVP:
1. 67.0 QBR, 59.8% Comp, 239 Y/G, 7.8 Y/A, 39.8 Rushing Yards/G

Pro Bowlers:
2. 65.0 QBR, 62.6% Comp, 252 Y/G, 8.1 Y/A, 56.3 Rushing Yards/G

3. 70.8 QBR, 66.6% Comp, 230 Y/G, 7.3 Y/A, 30.1 Rushing Yards/G

#3 was Trubisky in 2018, and he had a better overall QBR than Cam Newton's 2015 MVP season and Michael Vick's 2010 with the Eagles. They were the closest comps in multiple statistical categories and all three made the playoffs. The biggest outliers were TDs.

Next post is going to be all the available QBs and some of their numbers.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

No one seems to know really what QBR is since there are so many variables to account for.  For instance; one set of stats that are figured in is 'garbage time' stats.  Basically a QB (in this case) could have 'lights out' statistics for the 4th quarter but that's because the other team is ahead by 30 points and are going into pass prevent.  The opposite affect could apply where a QB gets great stats due to the team they play against.  Another measure that QBR employs is against how highly rated the defense is that the QB faces.  If you play the 2019 NE defense during weeks 1-5, you probably won't be playing against the same defense in weeks 14-17, especially if they are locked in for playoff spot. Yet NE's D would still be ranked in the top 10.  

[Stinger226]

I think your eyes don't lie , Rodgers is great with only one SB. BRADY is great because he has won so many championships.  When you see a QB over a period of time, they will show consistency.  Mahomes has been great 2 years in a row, we can see it. Great teams overcome mediocrity in a QB.  We have neither. 

[adam]

So here is comparison #1. Look at how similar all these QBs really are:

1. Trubisky (26) 23-18 Record, 811-1280, 63.4%, 8554 yds, 48 TD, 29 INT, 6.7 Y/A, 85.8 QB Rating

2. Mariota (27) 29-32 Record, 1110-1765, 62.9%, 13207 yds, 76 TD, 44 INT, 7.5 Y/A, 89.6 QB Rating

3. Keenum (32) 27-35 Record, 1304-2091, 62.4%, 14368 yds, 75 TD, 47 INT, 6.9 Y/A, 85.3 QB Rating

4. Dalton (33) 70-61-2 Record, 2757-4449, 62.0%, 31594 yds, 204 TD, 118 INT, 7.1 Y/A, 87.5 QB Rating

So do we want Mariota who has 6 more wins and 14 more losses than Mitch? The best thing he has going is a solid Y/A. Outside of that, are we really getting an upgrade? His best season was 26 TDs and 3426 yards. That would be career highs for Trubisky, but only a slight improvement. Since he and Trubisky share the same agent, this one is highly unlikely as that agent would be putting two eggs in one basket which would be counter to trying to maximize contracts for themselves.

Next up, Keenum. I think he would be the cheapest option for bringing in competition. However, he is almost identical to Mariota with a worse Y/A. Keenum had a solid stretch with MIN and then the next year in DEN, where he threw for 3890 yards. The odd part was he only threw for 18 TDs? His career-high is 22 (less than Mitch). So this would be an acquisition to push Mitch and fill in better than Daniel if Mitch shits the bed or if Keenum looks better in TC, he gets the nod and Mitch watches from the sideline.

Then we have Dalton. Definitely the most accomplished out of the group, with a solid record on a typically bad Bengals team. However, it just seems like he is where Mariota will be in 4 more years. He did have two 4k passing seasons and threw for over 30 TDs once, but looking at his overall career, that year seems like the outlier. In the two years he broke 4k in passing yards, his QBR was 55.1 and 50.8, basically, league average. His last solid year was 2016 (4 seasons ago), so who knows which player you would be getting. Can a guy at 33 who has never really been great change schemes like nothing? I don't know. 

For the QB situation, I think it would be good to bring in a solid vet to push Mitch and play better than Daniel if they need to start. Another wild card is Fitzpatrick. More on that later.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Dalton to me is very similar to Alex Smith.  Seems to maintain the offense ‘just good enough’.

Speaking of, if Alex can prove he’s healthy I wouldn’t mind seeing him in Chicago.  He’s familiar with the offense. It wouldn’t be ‘razzle-dazzle’ but you know he can play solid.  Problem is if the OL is still crap he’ll be permanently retired.

Another FA I’m keen on is Rivers.   Another solid player (again no longer mobile) but will play no matter what.

[adam]

3 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Dalton to me is very similar to Alex Smith.  Seems to maintain the offense ‘just good enough’.

Speaking of, if Alex can prove he’s healthy I wouldn’t mind seeing him in Chicago.  He’s familiar with the offense. It wouldn’t be ‘razzle-dazzle’ but you know he can play solid.  Problem is if the OL is still crap he’ll be permanently retired.

Another FA I’m keen on is Rivers.   Another solid player (again no longer mobile) but will play no matter what.

Smith is a true wild card. If healthy, and cheap, he would be a viable option that has history in the offense and with Nagy. 

Take a look at Smith's last full year with KC (2017) and Mahomes 2019. The comparison is uncanny actually.

Mahomes 2019 > 319-484, 65.9%, 4031 yds, 26 TD, 5 INT, 105.3 QB Rating, 8.3 Y/A, 218 Rushing yds, 2 TD.
Smith 2017 > 341-505, 67.5%, 4042 yds. 26 TD, 5 INT, 104.7 QB Rating, 8.0 Y/A, 355 Rushing yds, 1 TD. 

Can you tell they are in the same offense? How is Mahomes otherworldly if a game manager like Smith could put up identical numbers throwing to Hill and Kelce? If you like PFF, Smith had a 85.9 Grade in 2017 and Mahomes had a 90.2 with those stats. To me that's kind of funny since the stats were so close. This does not get enough attention really. Mahomes is Smith 2.0 with a little more flair. 

Ultimately, it makes me think that the Bears offense, O-Line, TEs, and play calls were more of the problem than Trubisky was in 2019. Trubisky still was a problem, but the other factors seemed to restrict what he could do.

[adam]

3 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Dalton to me is very similar to Alex Smith.  Seems to maintain the offense ‘just good enough’.

Speaking of, if Alex can prove he’s healthy I wouldn’t mind seeing him in Chicago.  He’s familiar with the offense. It wouldn’t be ‘razzle-dazzle’ but you know he can play solid.  Problem is if the OL is still crap he’ll be permanently retired.

Another FA I’m keen on is Rivers.   Another solid player (again no longer mobile) but will play no matter what.

I like Rivers, but he can't run the RPO, which Nagy refuses to abandon. 

[Bill]

19 minutes ago, adam said:

Smith is a true wild card. If healthy, and cheap, he would be a viable option that has history in the offense and with Nagy. 

Take a look at Smith's last full year with KC (2017) and Mahomes 2019. The comparison is uncanny actually.

Mahomes 2019 > 319-484, 65.9%, 4031 yds, 26 TD, 5 INT, 105.3 QB Rating, 8.3 Y/A, 218 Rushing yds, 2 TD.
Smith 2017 > 341-505, 67.5%, 4042 yds. 26 TD, 5 INT, 104.7 QB Rating, 8.0 Y/A, 355 Rushing yds, 1 TD. 

Can you tell they are in the same offense? How is Mahomes otherworldly if a game manager like Smith could put up identical numbers throwing to Hill and Kelce? If you like PFF, Smith had a 85.9 Grade in 2017 and Mahomes had a 90.2 with those stats. To me that's kind of funny since the stats were so close. This does not get enough attention really. Mahomes is Smith 2.0 with a little more flair. 

Ultimately, it makes me think that the Bears offense, O-Line, TEs, and play calls were more of the problem than Trubisky was in 2019. Trubisky still was a problem, but the other factors seemed to restrict what he could do.

Stats show only part of the story.  In the SB JG out played Mahomes for all but 8 min.  When the game was on the line Mahomes made plays while JG came up short.  Yea there are a lot of problems on the Bears and not a lot of cap space or draft picks to fix.  I for one thought we were only a player or two away.  I quess we'll find out this year where we really are.  I hope they know what is really a problem and what was just a bad year. 

[adam]

7 minutes ago, Bill said:

Stats show only part of the story.  In the SB JG out played Mahomes for all but 8 min.  When the game was on the line Mahomes made plays while JG came up short.  Yea there are a lot of problems on the Bears and not a lot of cap space or draft picks to fix.  I for one thought we were only a player or two away.  I quess we'll find out this year where we really are.  I hope they know what is really a problem and what was just a bad year. 

I would say a season for 2 QBs in the same system with relatively the same supporting cast is a pretty good comparison. I actually thought both QBs in the SB played average at best. Mahomes had two huge throws to wide open receivers that accounted for most of his yards. Outside of those two plays, he really didn't do too much. I just thought the stats were too similar to pass up the comparison.

This is truly the year where we find out about Trubisky. There are literally no more excuses. If you count college and pro seasons, he will be in his 5th, in the system, his 3rd. We will know by the 3rd game if he is the problem.

[Bill]

"This is truly the year where we find out about Trubisky. There are literally no more excuses. If you count college and pro seasons, he will be in his 5th, in the system, his 3rd. We will know by the 3rd game if he is the problem."

Boy I hope he can turn things around.  If not we're back to square one with perhaps a new GM and HC.  We don't have the assets to bring in any QB besides a one or two year rental if any out there are any better anyway.  It's who we got or were sunk

[Mongo3451]

I'm thinking Andy Dalton would be a good backup.  He's average enough to where fans won't be chanting his name at every turn of a game and good enough to fill in and win.  It's also big plus that he's not over the hill, so he can start if we decide to part ways with Mitch, buying us time to groom the next one.

[Bill]

1 minute ago, Mongo3451 said:

I'm thinking Andy Dalton would be a good backup.  He's average enough too where fans won't be changing his name at every turn of a game and good enough to fill in and win.  It's also big plus that he's not over the hill, so he can start if we decide to part ways with Mitch, buying us time to groom the next one.

He is interesting.  But how much would they be willing to let him go for?  We don't have any draft capital this year and I'm tired of giving away future picks for players.  Just a tough place to be in.  For almost 60 years I've watched one GB after the other lay an egg for the Bears.  You would think blind luck could do better!

[Bill]

Or dumb luck.