BearFan PHX Posted February 16, 2020 Report Share Posted February 16, 2020 Looking at the Bears’ cap situation, I think we have a lot of options for cuts and trades. At this moment we have an estimated $13 Million in cap room. -------------------------------- LEONARD FLOYD -------------------------------- Floyd is due $13,222,000 this year with no dead cap. If you cut or trade him, you instantly gain $13 Mil in cap room, which can sign two or three quality free agents. There is no way Floyd plays under this contract for us in 2020. You can pretty much consider him cut and add $13Mil to your cap. Then you can think about what you WOULD pay him as a free agent. Aaron Lynch got $1.5 Million to play backup to Floyd. Floyd is probably worth $3 or $4 Million. You could choose to restructure him, but that’s basically the same as cutting him and then choosing him as a free agent, and there are other options out there too, so I will put him down as a cut, and you can add his name to the pool of free agent replacements. If there is interest in the league for him at more than what we value him at (assuming he would restructure with the new team, or they wouldn’t want him either!), then you could trade him and gain some picks. He’s probably worth a 4th or a 5th rounder. So if you like any free agent as much as Floyd, then you get a free draft pick trading Floyd and choosing them that you don’t get if you resign Floyd. CUT = $13 Million saved TRADE = $13 Million saved + 5th round pick (if there is interest) RESULT = $13 Mil cap savings, leaves a need at OLB -------------------------------- PRINCE AMUKAMARAH -------------------------------- Amukamarah is in the last year of his deal. He is due $9,000,000 with no dead cap cost. He’s playing far below that. There is no way he will be playing in Chicago in 2020 under this deal. Again, you can choose to restructure him, but that’s the same as cutting him and then choosing him as a free agent. Trades are less likely because he is an older player in decline. RESULT = $9 Mil cap savings, leaves a need at CB. -------------------------------- TAYLOR GABRIEL -------------------------------- Gabriel is due $6,500,000 this year, and has a dead cap number of $2,000,000. Cutting or trading him opens up $4,500,000 in cap room. It is unlikely he will play for us in 2020 under this deal. With Miller, Ridley and Wims all waiting in the wings, Gabriel’s worth to this team is limited, and his productivity has been lacking. He may have some value in a trade, but either way he is an easy decision. RESULT = $4.5 Mil cap savings, leaves very little need to replace him. -------------------------------- CHARLES LENO -------------------------------- Leno is due $10,294,000 this year and $7.376,000 of it is dead cap money. Cutting or trading him opens up $2,918,000 in cap room. It is unlikely he will play in Chicago in 2020 under this deal. If you cut him, you can find an equal replacement for less than the $3M you save. More likely, that $3 Mil gets lumped in with more from other sources to sign a free agent who would be a vast improvement. For me, cutting him seems obvious. He is atrociously horrible. RESULT = $2.9 Mil cap savings, leaves a need at OLT. -------------------------------- ANALYSIS SO FAR -------------------------------- If you cut these four players, you gain $29,640,000 in cap room, and you need to sign OLB, LOT, CB – you could afford $10 Mil this year for each. That means you can afford some pretty good players and significantly upgrade the pass protection, pass rush and coverage. These are the basic obvious moves the Bears have to make. Here are some additional players to consider -------------------------------- CORDARRELLE PATTERSON -------------------------------- Patterson is set to make $5,750,000 with only $1,000,000 in cap space. He has shown talent and heart, but Nagy had a hard time knowing where to use him. He is worth the money if they find a role for him. If they aren’t going to utilize him, he is certainly worth something in trade, and opens up $4,750,000 in cap space, which could go to help the offense with a better TE or more help on the OL, and in the end that could be more valuable than Patterson is to us. RESULT = Trade Patterson, gain a pick and almost $5Mil in cap room, leaves a hole at kick returner. -------------------------------- ADAM SHAHEEN -------------------------------- Shaheen is set to make $1,880,626 with $609,644 in dead cap money. He’s shown nothing at all so far, and there is no way the Bears go into 2020 thinking he is the answer at TE. Maybe they still believe in his talent and will keep him around, but in no way will they be banking on him. If you can get something in trade for him, I think you do it. He will probably go on to be amazing with the Patriots. RESULT = Trade Shaheen, gain a pick and $1.2Mil in cap room, leaves no hole at all. -------------------------------- TREY BURTON -------------------------------- Burton is due $8,550,000 with $7,500,000 of it as dead money. Cutting him doesn’t gain much cap room. Restructuring his deal is likely. If there is a market for him around the league above what we would offer, then he is trade bait. I’d either redo his contract for around $4 Mil a year, and open up $4 Mil on the cap, or trade him for a 4th rounder or better. RESULT = Redo his contract and save $4Mil on the cap, or trade him for a mid round pick, leaves a hole at 2nd TE -------------------------------- BEN BRAUNECKER -------------------------------- Braunecker is due $1,618,750 with only $150,000 of dead cap space. He is as easy a cut as there is on this list. RESULT = Cut and save $1.4Mil, leaves a hole at 2nd TE -------------------------------- ANALYSIS SO FAR -------------------------------- Moving all these players opens up $8.5 Mil to $10.5 Mil on the cap, and that’s enough for a real starting TE. Also, there’d probably be at least 2 mid round draft picks gained too. Follow my plan so far, and you have lost almost nothing, gained $38.5 Mil to $41.5 Mil on the cap to signed $10 Mil free agents at OLT, OLB, CB and TE and picked up a few extra mid round picks. Not to mention the other $13 Mil we already have to spend too, and our existing draft picks. This would be a serious overhaul of the team, and the only player you’d really miss is Patterson. This still leaves questions at QB and OG, but you’d have at least $6 Mil in cap and two 2nd round picks to address those positions with, and the new rookie QB could sit a year under Trubisky. -------------------------------- A COUPLE OTHERS -------------------------------- -------------------------------- ALLEN ROBINSON -------------------------------- Robinson is due $15,000,000 on the cap with only $1,000,000 in dead cap dollars. That means cutting him gives you $14 Mil more in cap room to sign a free agent. You’d definitely do your due diligence and see what that $14Mil could get you, but it is likely you’d put Robinson on the top of the WR free agency list and choose him again. He’s played very well for us and is a true #1 WR. Since this is the final year of his contract, we are likely to extend him. That could open up cap room too. In the end, I think it’s all a wash, and we resign him, and his 2020 cap number looks about the same as it does now. RESULT = no change -------------------------------- TARIK COHEN -------------------------------- Cohen is due $2,300,000 this year, with $158,000 in dead cap room, so cutting or trading him saves $2,144,000. He’s really not played that well. I know he’s a fan favorite, but he hasn’t been very productive in our offense this past year. He probably has some trade value, and if an offer came of a 4th rounder or better, I’d seriously consider moving him. This is his last year, and I don’t see us resigning him anyway. If your cap plans require the extra $2Mil, then he’s a possible cut. Otherwise, you probably keep him one more year if you don’t get a trade offer. If you DO get a trade offer, then you can bundle one of our existing 2nd rounders, along with 2 or 3 mid round picks from trades Ive proposed above to trade into the middle of the first round and snag an even better QB prospect. RESULT = Trade for draft pick(s) and $2.1Mil cap relief and improve your QB pick, leaves a hole at RB2 that can be filled in the 3rd round, or keep him one more year. -------------------------------- FINAL ANALYSIS -------------------------------- OFFENSE QB Trubisky, journeyman free agent /late first round pick RB Montgomery, 3rd round draft pick, possibly Cohen WR Robinson, Miller, Ridley, Wims TE *** $10 Mil Free Agent *** OLT *** $10 Mil Free Agent *** OLG Daniels OC Whitehair ORG 2nd round draft pick / journeyman Free Agent ORT Massie DEFENSE DE Hicks DT Goldman DE draft pick / Nichols / journeyman free agent OLB Mack ILB Smith ILB Pierre-Lewis OLB *** $10 Mil Free Agent *** CB Fuller FS Jackson SS ??? CB *** $10 Mil Free Agent *** OK, so obviously we aren’t going to sign FOUR $10 Mil free agents. We need some of that money in free agency for the SS position, or an extra player on the OL, and just because you have $10 Mil to spend doesn’t mean that there is a $10 Mil player available. But you do see how we would have extra picks, and plenty of cap space to address all the holes if we follow this plan. We are not in trouble as a roster under the cap, we are FINE. We have the likelihood of adding a few picks too. We just need to choose well in free agency, and pick smart at the draft, and hope that the coaching staff knows how to develop and use these players. I think a pretty significant overhaul is coming, and it touches the positions we’ve been worst at and makes them legitimate strengths. Who are your favorite $10 Mil dollar free agents at LOT, OLB, CB and TE? Who is your favorite mid 1st to mid 2nd round QB in the draft? 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adam Posted February 16, 2020 Report Share Posted February 16, 2020 Floyd - I doubt his agent lets him take less money. If the Bears don't keep him on for $13M, he will get it somewhere else. There might be some trade interest, and if you are the Bears, you take the trade now versus playing roulette with the comp picks. So keep for $13M (ugh), trade for 5th or 6th this year, cut and hope for comp pick next year. I would save the $13M. Amukamara - Gone, there is no way we can afford that with his production and a year older. Save $9M. Gabriel - We have a logjam at WR already with Wims and Ridley waiting in the wings. Miller played great once Gabriel went out. Easy cut. Save the $4.5M. Leno - If you make him a June 1 cut, you can spread the dead cap out over this and next year's cap, thus making him a cap savings of $6.7M. I would take the $6.7M and the gain by subtraction. I would add Shaheen and Braunecker to the list, that makes $34.8M in new cap space. You could easily add 4 immediate starters with that money (Fuller-CB, Bell-S, Vaitai-OT, Glasgow-OG). I replace Prince with Kendall Fuller, HHCD with Vonn Bell, Leno with Vaitai, and Glasgow at OG. Then I draft a TE and Edge early to fill those holes. The rest is used to address backup QB and depth. There are also a few players that can restructure to save additional space. So to me, cap space is not an issue as long as the Bears do something with Floyd, Prince, Leno, and Gabriel. Who are your favorite $10 Mil dollar free agents at LOT, OLB, CB and TE? I am thinking Vaitai at OT and Kendall Fuller at CB to fill those two starting positions. Then address Edge and TE in the draft. Who is your favorite mid 1st to mid 2nd round QB in the draft? I think we go with a QB later and bring in a vet like Keenum. Someone like Montez or Anthony Gordon in the 5th or 6th. I am intrigued more by Gordon. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASHKUM BEAR Posted February 16, 2020 Report Share Posted February 16, 2020 https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2020-nfl-free-agency-ranking-the-10-best-free-agent-offensive-tackles-led-by-anthony-castonzo-jack-conklin/ Who you thinking? Castanzo? I am all about upgrading, but to upgrade a player who recently signed makes it even more costly Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted February 17, 2020 Report Share Posted February 17, 2020 A few flaws in your projections. As much as I agree Leno is not going anywhere. Other than maybe 3 OTs available in free agency that will cost more than 10 mil that would be better, they will view the rest as not worth it. Loss plus new salary will not be worth it to them. Floyd is not worth 13 mil but as a LB he could probably get 7-8 mil in free agency. I think they offer him a contract and bring in or draft a pass rusher without a big contract to add to the pass rush. I dont think they get rid of Burton either. If he looks fully healthy, they will think he can be the 2028 TE. They will draft a TE and maybe bring in a reasonable FA. It wont be Henry or Hopper. Shaheen and Braunnecker will be let go. I think Gabriel being cut and Robinson getting a nee deal with a cap savings this year. Cohen and Patterson will be back, there weapons not easy to replace. I think they could redo Princes contract for cap savings and cut him if he doesn't accept. I think they have his replacement on the roster but may want one more year of development first. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted February 17, 2020 Report Share Posted February 17, 2020 Agreed! 12 minutes ago, Stinger226 said: A few flaws in your projections. As much as I agree Leno is not going anywhere. Other than maybe 3 OTs available in free agency that will cost more than 10 mil that would be better, they will view the rest as not worth it. Loss plus new salary will not be worth it to them. Floyd is not worth 13 mil but as a LB he could probably get 7-8 mil in free agency. I think they offer him a contract and bring in or draft a pass rusher without a big contract to add to the pass rush. I dont think they get rid of Burton either. If he looks fully healthy, they will think he can be the 2028 TE. They will draft a TE and maybe bring in a reasonable FA. It wont be Henry or Hopper. Shaheen and Braunnecker will be let go. I think Gabriel being cut and Robinson getting a nee deal with a cap savings this year. Cohen and Patterson will be back, there weapons not easy to replace. I think they could redo Princes contract for cap savings and cut him if he doesn't accept. I think they have his replacement on the roster but may want one more year of development first. Agreed! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted February 17, 2020 Report Share Posted February 17, 2020 3 hours ago, Stinger226 said: A few flaws in your projections. As much as I agree Leno is not going anywhere. Other than maybe 3 OTs available in free agency that will cost more than 10 mil that would be better, they will view the rest as not worth it. Loss plus new salary will not be worth it to them. Floyd is not worth 13 mil but as a LB he could probably get 7-8 mil in free agency. I think they offer him a contract and bring in or draft a pass rusher without a big contract to add to the pass rush. I dont think they get rid of Burton either. If he looks fully healthy, they will think he can be the 2028 TE. They will draft a TE and maybe bring in a reasonable FA. It wont be Henry or Hopper. Shaheen and Braunnecker will be let go. I think Gabriel being cut and Robinson getting a nee deal with a cap savings this year. Cohen and Patterson will be back, there weapons not easy to replace. I think they could redo Princes contract for cap savings and cut him if he doesn't accept. I think they have his replacement on the roster but may want one more year of development first. I'm in agreement with most of what you have here. Floyd will easily get $7-8mil/yr because that position is so valuable and some team will have a huge hole they must fill. Of course that team will be us if we cut Floyd and there is no 2nd Rd pick that will be nearly as good as Floyd is. Nor do I see any $10mil FAs at OLB that are as good as Floyd in all aspects and who we can slot into his place. Besides that cutting him early on really hurts our negotiating position. If the plan is to cut him we should go hard after the better OLB FAs but there is not much there... https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/free-agents/all/edge/ Even old players who were considered "good players" like Jamie Collins are expected to earn $8.8mil/yr. He's averaged a whopping 3.6 sacks per season since he got playing time. That's why I feel Floyd stays with a new extension that lowers his cap hit while we draft another OLB early. IMO the only situation that makes sense for cutting Floyd is if we go after and land a bigger fish like Bud Dupree. He's not even that great of a pass rusher having only hit double digits last year with 11.5. Prior to his "contract year" his best was 6 sacks. That's concerning for a player expected to earn $16-17mil/yr. I'd prefer Ngakoue because I think he can spend some time working inside the tackles but he'll likely see $17mil/yr. Pace could make it all work with the other proposed cuts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted February 17, 2020 Report Share Posted February 17, 2020 My problem with Floyd is, even when healthy, he did not produce across from Mack. He was probably in the best position in the league outside of lining up across from Watt or Miller. So do we keep the status quo or try something else? If we are going to pay north of $10M, we need some production from that position. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted February 17, 2020 Report Share Posted February 17, 2020 4 hours ago, adam said: My problem with Floyd is, even when healthy, he did not produce across from Mack. He was probably in the best position in the league outside of lining up across from Watt or Miller. So do we keep the status quo or try something else? If we are going to pay north of $10M, we need some production from that position. It's everyone's problem with Floyd. I don't think it's likely but I'd be happy if Pace signed Ngakoue for $17mil/yr even if it leaves a bigger hole in coverage than I'd like. With this approach we would likely find ourselves with one of Baun, Lewis, Anea, or Okwara from ND. Of course Yannik could see nearly $20mil/yr. We should probably be discussing more about Okwara as a good fit for us. He can do in coverage what Floyd does but he's not as good against the run. Then you take NYC's proposal and go find a good 1st/2nd down OLB which will be cheaper to fill. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted February 18, 2020 Report Share Posted February 18, 2020 Rumors are that the Bears inquired about recently released Browns TE Demetrius Harris. Also saw Eric Kush on their list of cuts. https://www.si.com/nfl/bears/news/tight-end-with-past-ties-to-matt-nagy-available-to-bears Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted February 18, 2020 Report Share Posted February 18, 2020 1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said: Rumors are that the Bears inquired about recently released Browns TE Demetrius Harris. Also saw Eric Kush on their list of cuts. https://www.si.com/nfl/bears/news/tight-end-with-past-ties-to-matt-nagy-available-to-bears We are definitely searching for Shaheen's replacement. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASHKUM BEAR Posted February 18, 2020 Report Share Posted February 18, 2020 The Bears need more than added competition for the TE position, they need legitimate starters. I don't know much about Harris, but trust he is starter material as a blocking TE. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted February 18, 2020 Report Share Posted February 18, 2020 I don't see them paying him anything more than a couple mil on a one year contract. Harris is a good blocking TE but isn't a difference maker so seems they have that in JP Holtz. If I remember they signed Ted Larson over resigning Kush last year. You figure with Bars and Coward they have depth so if they bring in a RG its going to be a upgrade not as a reserve. One that seems to be a better fit and started for the Rams is Austin Brythe that would be cheaper than the three top OG free agents. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted February 18, 2020 Report Share Posted February 18, 2020 2 hours ago, Stinger226 said: I don't see them paying him anything more than a couple mil on a one year contract. Harris is a good blocking TE but isn't a difference maker so seems they have that in JP Holtz. If I remember they signed Ted Larson over resigning Kush last year. You figure with Bars and Coward they have depth so if they bring in a RG its going to be a upgrade not as a reserve. One that seems to be a better fit and started for the Rams is Adam Bryth that would be cheaper than the three top OG free agents. Bars is the wild card. If they believe in him and we don't need to bring in a starter at RG, that would be huge. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 After the new OL. Coach evaluates Bars we should know that answer by what they do in free agency . They could still bring in a vet and draft pick but at low cost and draft position. Save their money for a starting TE or backup QB with starter potential. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ASHKUM BEAR Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 11 minutes ago, Stinger226 said: After the new OL. Coach evaluates Bars we should know that answer by what they do in free agency . They could still bring in a vet and draft pick but at low cost and draft position. Save their money for a starting TE or backup QB with starter potential. One player Castillo may convince the Bears to draft is Runyan Jr. He coached him at Michigan and coached his dad at Philly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 1 hour ago, ASHKUM BEAR said: One player Castillo may convince the Bears to draft is Runyan Jr. He coached him at Michigan and coached his dad at Philly. ABSOLUTELY YES!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 2 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said: ABSOLUTELY YES!!! When I watched the short video (I think on ESPN) about John Runyan Jr it was apparent that his son has his father's work ethic but not his physical talent. CBS Sports has him rank 349 overall. Other places I struggle to even find his name. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted February 19, 2020 Report Share Posted February 19, 2020 5 hours ago, AZ54 said: When I watched the short video (I think on ESPN) about John Runyan Jr it was apparent that his son has his father's work ethic but not his physical talent. CBS Sports has him rank 349 overall. Other places I struggle to even find his name. Ben Bredeson is the stuff of that group. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 12 hours ago, Mongo3451 said: Ben Bredeson is the stuff of that group. He's even listed as a mid-Rd prospect. If we don't draft one early he certainly should be on our list. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 Mauler Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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