adam Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 I found this guy on Twitter who has compiled some data on college and combine numbers compared to NFL success. Very interesting. https://haydenwinks.com/project-tag/draft-research/ The QB data is here: https://www.rotoworld.com/article/numbers/nfl-draft-analytics-qb The top 5 stats that correlated to NFL numbers were College Passing TD's to NFL TD's and Yds/g; College Passing Yards to TD/g and QB Rating, and College Yds/g to NFL TD/g. Now I know there are top college guys that don't do anything in the NFL, but the odds are that the top QB's will be from the top group of players with high passing yards and passing TD's in college. The odds of them having low numbers is extremely rare. If you use AV as your success measurement, the highest college stats that correlate to NFL success are College Passing TD's and College Passing Yards. The top QB's in passing yards in 2016.....Pat Mahomes, #3......Deshaun Watson. Passing TDs? Tied for 3rd....Mahomes and Watson. Also, if you only use the draft-eligible guys, they were the top two in both categories. Now it's not a one for one correlation, so guys like Mason Rudolph end up in there, but the likelihood of a guy out of the top group having success if extremely low. If you look at 2018, it's Haskins, Minshew, and Murray. Derek Carr was that guy in 2013. For this year, Burrow blows everyone out of the water. However, #2 is Anthony Gordon out of Washington State. If you use this concept, the chances of guys like Montez and Fromm to make it are low. Herbert and Love are also right at the cut line, sort of where Trubisky was at. So hell, I would go with Gordon as it seems like the likelihood of success is higher, as long as he has a good combine. The one interesting correlation for the combine was Ball Velocity had the highest correlation to NFL success. Also, hand size and height didn't correlate to NFL success. So if you have a guy with a lot of passing yards and TDs in college and had good velocity a the combine, they have the most chance at success in the NFL, though it's still less than 50%. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 There's analytics and then there's over-analytics. I'm not an engineer so all the numbers make for a mind-numbing affair to make sense of it all. It seems to me (as he alludes to in the QB data piece) that ..."the NFL Draft largely remains a total guessing game." You have players like Brees who are not the 'protypical' NFL QB at 6'4 plus and has easily had a very successful NFL career where his Combine results were anything but successful. His college stats weren't bad (in fact Trubisky did better his senior year than did Brees) but again probably weren't a true indicator of his NFL potential. Conversely, Brady wasn't even a starter until his Junior year, and again his college stats were even less stellar. And we all know although he did participate in the Combine his performance there wasn't enough to raise him any higher than a sixth-round draft pick. And what about arm strength and velocity as a measure? Look no further than Jay Cutler (himeself a first round pick) to know that talent doesn't necessarily translate to success on the big stage. Of this year's prospects, we could just as easily say those that are at the high end of the draft board have as just a chance to succeed/fail as those at the other end. "Experts" be darned. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bill Posted February 24, 2020 Report Share Posted February 24, 2020 I'm getting a pain in my ass and head just trying to read the rotoworld story. The writer is way smarter then I have or ever will be. But Tom Brady has not been elite for sometime. I understand his thought process though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted February 25, 2020 Report Share Posted February 25, 2020 9 hours ago, adam said: I found this guy on Twitter who has compiled some data on college and combine numbers compared to NFL success. Very interesting. https://haydenwinks.com/project-tag/draft-research/ The QB data is here: https://www.rotoworld.com/article/numbers/nfl-draft-analytics-qb The top 5 stats that correlated to NFL numbers were College Passing TD's to NFL TD's and Yds/g; College Passing Yards to TD/g and QB Rating, and College Yds/g to NFL TD/g. Now I know there are top college guys that don't do anything in the NFL, but the odds are that the top QB's will be from the top group of players with high passing yards and passing TD's in college. The odds of them having low numbers is extremely rare. If you use AV as your success measurement, the highest college stats that correlate to NFL success are College Passing TD's and College Passing Yards. The top QB's in passing yards in 2016.....Pat Mahomes, #3......Deshaun Watson. Passing TDs? Tied for 3rd....Mahomes and Watson. Also, if you only use the draft-eligible guys, they were the top two in both categories. Now it's not a one for one correlation, so guys like Mason Rudolph end up in there, but the likelihood of a guy out of the top group having success if extremely low. If you look at 2018, it's Haskins, Minshew, and Murray. Derek Carr was that guy in 2013. For this year, Burrow blows everyone out of the water. However, #2 is Anthony Gordon out of Washington State. If you use this concept, the chances of guys like Montez and Fromm to make it are low. Herbert and Love are also right at the cut line, sort of where Trubisky was at. So hell, I would go with Gordon as it seems like the likelihood of success is higher, as long as he has a good combine. The one interesting correlation for the combine was Ball Velocity had the highest correlation to NFL success. Also, hand size and height didn't correlate to NFL success. So if you have a guy with a lot of passing yards and TDs in college and had good velocity a the combine, they have the most chance at success in the NFL, though it's still less than 50%. If only it were so easy. And from what I've seen (ignore highlights watch games) Gordon will make Trubisky look good if we draft him. Once again despite the numbers nobody had Mahomes as the consensus #1 QB in the draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted February 25, 2020 Author Report Share Posted February 25, 2020 44 minutes ago, AZ54 said: If only it were so easy. And from what I've seen (ignore highlights watch games) Gordon will make Trubisky look good if we draft him. Once again despite the numbers nobody had Mahomes as the consensus #1 QB in the draft. I know, the dude is using real results though. I know it's not that easy, just saying the odds of picking a good one is much higher when drafting from that pool of players. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted February 25, 2020 Report Share Posted February 25, 2020 Who's Gordon? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted February 25, 2020 Report Share Posted February 25, 2020 3 hours ago, adam said: I know, the dude is using real results though. I know it's not that easy, just saying the odds of picking a good one is much higher when drafting from that pool of players. It is a much fancier way of saying what Bill Parcells used to say about QBs he wanted in the draft. IIRC he only wanted proven multi-year starters at big programs who won. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted February 25, 2020 Report Share Posted February 25, 2020 10 hours ago, AZ54 said: IIRC he only wanted proven multi-year starters at big programs who won. Which I strongly prescribe to. However that’s even flawed. Look at Mariota, look at Vince Young, look at a whole slew of USC starters; Booty, Sanchez, Barkley and Leinart. With Trubisky; I think part of his fatal flaw is he didn’t have that multi year starter career in college. Sure he did well when he started but for some reason he couldn’t supplant Marquise Williams. Why is that? Since coming to the league he hasn’t had much help from Nagy. Especially with not playing in both of the last two preseasons and some of the play-calling since then. I still think the Bears would benefit from adding a QB in the draft. It doesn’t have to be one of the top 5 for this year but maybe one whose at least had more than one season of starting experience. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AZ54 Posted February 25, 2020 Report Share Posted February 25, 2020 1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said: Which I strongly prescribe to. However that’s even flawed. Look at Mariota, look at Vince Young, look at a whole slew of USC starters; Booty, Sanchez, Barkley and Leinart. With Trubisky; I think part of his fatal flaw is he didn’t have that multi year starter career in college. Sure he did well when he started but for some reason he couldn’t supplant Marquise Williams. Why is that? Since coming to the league he hasn’t had much help from Nagy. Especially with not playing in both of the last two preseasons and some of the play-calling since then. I still think the Bears would benefit from adding a QB in the draft. It doesn’t have to be one of the top 5 for this year but maybe one whose at least had more than one season of starting experience. I think a big part of what Parcells wanted was knowing he had a QB who could handle the big stage with all the pressure. Really this is where I think Trubisky struggles the most. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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