Colts @ Bears - Week 4 - Official Game Thread - 10/04, Bears +2.0, 3:25 PM CT, CBS (MOVED from noon)

[adam]

The 2-1 Colts come to Soldier Field as 2 point favorites against the undefeated Chicago Bears. No one picked the Bears to win in Atlanta, and no one is picking the Bears against the Colts. With the QB change (which was the biggest variable for the last 3+ yrs), this should be a good matchup for the Bears. Phillip Rivers comes to town and is a very turnover prone QB. I like our chances against him. In a way, our teams are very similar in composition. Vet QB that is not very mobile, young RB, solid WR's, good Edge Rushers, etc. If you do a player by player breakdown, I like our chances against them. 

I am going with Bears 27-17 and the Bears go to 4-0 with a decisive win at home. 

[adam]

To me the Indy Offense is underwhelming. They are relying on short quick throws to protect Rivers. That has given Rivers a very high completion percentage, literally 15 pts higher than his career average. So based on the law of averages, that is set to drop and return to the mean. So I expect him to be at 60% for the game. He averages 1 INT per game, so even with the short passing game, he still is turnover prone. He has 35 INTs in his last 35 games. He is very consistent in throwing to the other team. I think we can capitalize on one of his mistakes with someone like Fuller or Johnson jumping a short out and taking it to the house.

Rivers 78.3%, 794 yds, 8.6 Y/A, 3 TD, 3 INT, 1 Fumble

The running game is weak, their top 2 RBs average less than 4 YPC, and Hines leads the team in receptions. So mirroring Hines is going to be key. He is Rivers' outlet, so Smith is going to have to mask him all game. I would make them beat us without Hines. Montgomery is a better rusher and is on par with Taylor's catching ability. With the loss of Cohen, they have the edge with Hines. 

Taylor - 3.8 YPC, 9 Receptions
Hines - 3.5 YPC, 13 Receptions

Their WR's have not done very much, mainly because of the short passing game featuring the RBs and TE. So Hilton is averaging just over 3 catches a game. He is almost a non-factor. I like our chances with Fuller, Johnson, and Skrine against Hilton, Pittman, and Pascal/Campbell. They don't have an ARob.

Hilton - 10 Receptions, 13.3 YPC
Pittman - 9 Receptions, 8.1 YPC

The leader in receiving yards is their backup TE, Alie-Cox. He has a 45-yard catch to his credit and seems to be their best receiver. Graham matches him in receptions and first downs, but Alie-Cox has more yards but Graham has more TDs. He is going to have to be accounted for.  This would be a good coming out party for Cole Kmet.

Alie-Cox - 10 Receptions, 18.1 YPC

For Special Teams, their kicker is about average, he has missed 2 kicks from between 30-49, so he is not automatic and hasn't attempted one beyond 50 yet. Their punter is pretty good, he has 4 punts inside the 10 out of 6 punts. Their longest kickoff return is 41 yards by Dulin and longest punt return is 16 yards by Hines. O'Donnell has only put one punt inside the 10 and Santos has missed both kicks beyond 40, so our kickers suck. CP is returning kickoffs, so we have a huge edge there. It will be interesting to see if Miller continues to return punts or if they try CP or Mooney there. 

For their entire team, they have 2 players I would want, Quentin Nelson at Guard, Darius Leonard at LB. Everyone else is meh. We have Mack, Hicks, Jackson, Montgomery, and ARob. It feels like we have the personnel edge. So it is going to come down to coaching and execution. 
 

 

[adam]

After the Week 3 updates, the Colts have the highest DVOA in the league, but have the 18th rank offense with the 1st rank defense. The Bears are ranked 17th with the 26th ranked offense and 6th ranked defense. 

Some other interesting comparisons, even though Rivers has been ultra-efficient, his QBR is 57.5 for 23rd in the league, 24th was Mitch Trubisky at 55.9.

For RBs, Taylor is 29th in the league for DVOA while Monty is 22nd. 

Alie-Cox is #2 in the league for DVOA, which is surprising. Graham is 26th.

Hilton is 47th and Pittman is 52nd. So there WRs are non-factors so far. Interestingly for the Bears, Miller is 44th and Robinson is actually 55th, which I think is due to the 2 INTs that were stripped from him.

So Alie-Cox is going to be the guy the LBs and Safeties need to key on it seems.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

5 hours ago, adam said:

So Alie-Cox is going to be the guy the LBs and Safeties need to key on it seems

If their leading receiver is a TE that tells you Rivers isn’t killing teams with the big plays.  He’s doing more of the dink/dunk style O common with the WCO.  I think HC Reich is more that style coach (having worked in Philly under Pedersen and with Foles) so I predict a lot of similar short yardage gains from them. 

If the D keeps everyone in front of them they should be able to handle it.  I’d think Smith (or Skrine in Nickel) should key on the TE while Trevathan focus on the backfield.  If the RB comes out he’s his.  If Rivers starts to go, chase him. I thought I saw Trevathan spying on Ryan in the last game so I see no reason not to do it again.    
 

Even with Trevathan focusing on the RB he’ll need help with the ‘up the middle’ plays.  Still not sure who they have in the middle of the D that can keep it contained.  

[Mongo3451]

3 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

If their leading receiver is a TE that tells you Rivers isn’t killing teams with the big plays.  He’s doing more of the dink/dunk style O common with the WCO.  I think HC Reich is more that style coach (having worked in Philly under Pedersen and with Foles) so I predict a lot of similar short yardage gains from them. 

If the D keeps everyone in front of them they should be able to handle it.  I’d think Smith (or Skrine in Nickel) should key on the TE while Trevathan focus on the backfield.  If the RB comes out he’s his.  If Rivers starts to go, chase him. I thought I saw Trevathan spying on Ryan in the last game so I see no reason not to do it again.    
 

Even with Trevathan focusing on the RB he’ll need help with the ‘up the middle’ plays.  Still not sure who they have in the middle of the D that can keep it contained.  

Rivers loves the athletic TE.  His future HOF TE, Antonio Gates, was a converted power forward just like Alie-Cox.  

[adam]

12 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Rivers loves the athletic TE.  His future HOF TE, Antonio Gates, was a converted power forward just like Alie-Cox.  

He does and based on Alie-Cox's production compared to previous years, it is clear that this is related to Rivers. So if you take him away, Rivers will have to go to someone else.

[adam]

Our game has been moved to the 325pm slot where the Chiefs Pats game was. So we get a late game this week instead of a nooner.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

And RB Lamar Miller was signed to the practice squad.  
 

https://www.bleachernation.com/bears/2020/10/02/bears-to-sign-free-agent-running-back-lamar-miller-to-their-practice-squad/

[adam]

5 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

And RB Lamar Miller was signed to the practice squad.  
 

https://www.bleachernation.com/bears/2020/10/02/bears-to-sign-free-agent-running-back-lamar-miller-to-their-practice-squad/

Yes, he is 14 months removed from a torn ACL, so he should be near 100%. He is a very solid RB2 if healthy and has a ton of catches out of the backfield. To me, that is the perfect complement to Montgomery because there won't be any tells with them on the field. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, adam said:

Yes, he is 14 months removed from a torn ACL, so he should be near 100%. He is a very solid RB2 if healthy and has a ton of catches out of the backfield. To me, that is the perfect complement to Montgomery because there won't be any tells with them on the field. 

Agreed that he would be a good complement back.  Still would like to see what Nall and Pierce have to offer.  From the looks of things, Pierce could have similar skills.  Good thing is Miller’s contract is pretty minimal.

Wonder if they’re waiting to see how things shake out in Seattle (Harrison) before getting a replacement NT? 

And...more importantly why have they still not re-signed Arob? 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Do you think Trubiksy will be used in a gadget play (or two) today?  Like receiver or Taysum Hill like play?  

[adam]

9 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Do you think Trubiksy will be used in a gadget play (or two) today?  Like receiver or Taysum Hill like play?  

I don't know, I doubt it but you never know. 

Our first drive ends in a partially blocked punt and then Rivers makes a couple of nice throws and of course, Alie-Cox gets the TD catch on an easy crossing route. Bears down 7-0 early. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

It is early, but Foles doesn't look the part.  

[adam]

It's clear that the Colts are not going to let the Bears run. If that is the case, the Bears need to take advantage of the open space. Right now receivers are not getting open. At this point, it doesn't even matter who is QB.

[adam]

3 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

It is early, but Foles doesn't look the part.  

He can't run the routes or call the plays. Right now it doesn't even matter who is QB, no one is getting open. Trubisky had some games like this too. On some of these outs, they need some out and ups. 

What this game was going to tell us is if Nagy is the problem. If Foles struggles all game, it's the play calling. 

[adam]

Nice drive but ends with only a FG. Last two plays seemed like not everyone was on the same sheet. Foles hands the ball off to no one followed by a throw that looked like Foles was throwing to Harris' back shoulder (away from defender) but Harris was not expecting that. If he did, he walks right in for an easy TD. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Colts have the top rated D currently so I’ll cut Foles some slack.  As of this post he hasn’t made a game changing mistake.  By now Mitch would’ve thrown an INT. 
 

The D on the other hand is still struggling.  Can’t really use they excuse they’re on the field too much. Run D is pretty non-existent.  

[ASHKUM BEAR]

23 minutes ago, adam said:

He can't run the routes or call the plays. Right now it doesn't even matter who is QB, no one is getting open. Trubisky had some games like this too. On some of these outs, they need some out and ups. 

What this game was going to tell us is if Nagy is the problem. If Foles struggles all game, it's the play calling. 

I think that may be a big part.  I grew tired of the media all week saying we finally get to see what Nagys offense is like. They forget Daniel's played a few games and he supposedly knew this playbook. I just want to see this team play great all game for once.  3-0 and frustrated lol

[Bill]

you win some your suppose to lose and you lose some your suppose to win.  and then you get yer ass kicked.

 

[Mongo3451]

31 minutes ago, Bill said:

you win some your suppose to lose and you lose some your suppose to win.  and then you get yer ass kicked.

 

Spot on.  Colts were more physical and it wasn't close.  Pagano is soft and his defense is playing soft.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Ballard may have been the better hire over Pace. 

Foles is Nagy's QB.  21 million dollar man and I wouldn't pay him a hundred for that game.  He gets a couple games to get accustomed.

Bears D could use Goldman.  His value is missed.  The NT is the key to a great 3-4. 

 

 

[Bears4Ever_34]

The entire time I'm watching this game, I'm thinking, "How in the hell did the Colts lose to the Jaguars??" The Bears just got outclassed in all 3 phases of that game, and it's becoming more clear with each passing week that this isn't a very good football team. They have holes everywhere.

Foles was bad, the run game was pathetic, and Nagy's playcalling has reverted back to 2019 levels. What we thought might end up looking like a pretty diverse running attack this year has gotten stale pretty fast. Montgomery is a complimentary back, not a bell-cow. He didn't have many holes to run through today, but there were multiple occasions where he had some pretty wide open cut back lanes, but either didn't see them or he was too slow to take advantage of it. He runs with no burst or suddenness. He breaks tackles and can be pretty elusive with the ball in his hands, but I don't see pro bowl talent with him.

Next week could be an inflection point in the Bears season. The schedule gets tougher from here. 4-1 looks awfully better than 3-2. A win vs Tampa would at least restore some credibility to the 3-0 start, but that offense looked pretty damn good in the 2nd half of that Chargers game. It's unlikely the Bears will see a better defense than the Colts all year, so I expect Foles to play better, but if things go bad against Tampa, we might be under .500 within a few weeks and find ourselves outside of the playoff picture.

[Mongo3451]

We continue to talk about a lack of depth in this team.  At the top is pace, who has traded two drafts away.  We look slow and weak on defense because Pagano coaches chicken shit defense.  He only dials something up when the odds tell him too. If you've ever played poker, you know that is not the way to go.  We can't do anything on offense because the neglected OL is trash and it gets exposed against a strong defense.  No more trading picks away!  It destroys depth and the cap.

[Bears4Ever_34]

17 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

We continue to talk about a lack of depth in this team.  At the top is pace, who has traded two drafts away.  We look slow and weak on defense because Pagano coaches chicken shit defense.  He only disks something up when the odds tell him too. If you've ever played poker, you know that is not the way to go.  We can't do anything on offense because the neglected OL is trash and it gets exposed against a string defense.  No more trading picks away!  It destroys depth and the cap.

Wasn't he supposed to be the exotic blitz guy on defense? I have yet to see any semblance of that so far as a DC. 

Don't know if it's a coincidence, but ever since he's been here, Eddie Jackson has gotten worse as a DB. He's practically invisible out there, and when he's not, he's usually taking a bad route to a ball or missing a tackle downfield.

Same can be said about Khalil Mack. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

The team is 3-1. That D is #1 in many categories. This was the first start for Foles, for this team, this season.  (Remember, he is a Super Bowl MVP). No one had a preseason or true off season to really prepare. Looking forward to Thursday night.  Tom Brady and his new team are next.