Your 5-1 Chicago Bears

[adam]

Somehow, someway. 5-1 after 6 games. The defense has been elite. The refs have really cost the team a ton of points. Nagy needs to just be the HC and we need a new coordinator. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Looks like Rodgers can be pressured into huge mistakes in watching the first half against TB.  That bodes well for our team.
 

The more I think about this, and considering Nagy might be the problem for the offense progress; would you think Trubiksy would be worth keeping around as a #2 for next year?  Maybe still draft a development Qb... just sayin.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

Is this the same TB team the Bears played a little over a week ago?  In TB? 
 

And this is with GB taking their bye...yikes.   Think you’re right Adam, GB is in for a long season.

[ChileBear]

Loving watching Rogers get hit nearly every drop. And he gets so frustrated. I hope Pagano is watching. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

10 minutes ago, ChileBear said:

Loving watching Rogers get hit nearly every drop. And he gets so frustrated. I hope Pagano is watching. 

Absolutely all this! 
 

and couldn’t help notice Brady run across the field at the end of the game to shake hands with Rodgers.  Where last week he scurried to the locker room and avoided Foles after losing.  Who by the way is 2-0 against him. Lololololol!!!

[ASHKUM BEAR]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Looks like Rodgers can be pressured into huge mistakes in watching the first half against TB.  That bodes well for our team.
 

The more I think about this, and considering Nagy might be the problem for the offense progress; would you think Trubiksy would be worth keeping around as a #2 for next year?  Maybe still draft a development Qb... just sayin.  

If Trubisky is cheap, he is up for a contract. Nagy just needs to re-think his genius.  He is not far and I thought he would learn but no..

 

[Bears4Ever_34]

I feel like only the Bears can be 5-1 and still make us think they suck.

There's no doubt the defense is still pretty good, run defense notwithstanding, but this offense is abysmal, and it's getting worse! They went from looking like a vastly improved running team after the first 2 games, to looking like a team that couldn't reach 100 yards against a college defense. 

Nick Foles wasn't very good either, and had his worst throw of the year on that interception. I know he does things pre and post snap that Mitch doesn't, but in terms of productivity, there isn't much of a difference between the two of them. Seems like they're only good for 1-2 TD's and 1-2 INT's a game and less than 250 yards passing. 

This next stretch of 5 games are brutal. I'm not sure I see 2 wins on paper, and I think they need AT LEAST 2 to remain a serious contender. 

[adam]

Now your 1st Place Chicago Bears. 

The Packers got absolutely embarrassed by the same team the Bears beat last week. 

The difference is Foles is getting more scoring drives than Trubisky. 3 out of 4 games with 20 or more points. 6 losses from last year were when the team scored less than 20. That is the Bears magic number. If they break 20, they have an 80-something percentage chance to win the game. Trubisky was continually providing less than 20 pts per game. 

[adam]

6 minutes ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

I feel like only the Bears can be 5-1 and still make us think they suck.

There's no doubt the defense is still pretty good, run defense notwithstanding, but this offense is abysmal, and it's getting worse! They went from looking like a vastly improved running team after the first 2 games, to looking like a team that couldn't reach 100 yards against a college defense. 

Nick Foles wasn't very good either, and had his worst throw of the year on that interception. I know he does things pre and post snap that Mitch doesn't, but in terms of productivity, there isn't much of a difference between the two of them. Seems like they're only good for 1-2 TD's and 1-2 INT's a game and less than 250 yards passing. 

This next stretch of 5 games are brutal. I'm not sure I see 2 wins on paper, and I think they need AT LEAST 2 to remain a serious contender. 

This game was not even close though. The refs made it close. ARob doesn't get the same call that Fuller gets called on when Jackson takes it back for 6. Then Johnson gets called for a phantom DPI that puts the ball on the 1. That was the Panthers only TD. They had 7 1st Downs from penalties. If those calls are corrected, the Bears win 34-9 and it's a blowout. 

[adam]

I wonder where the Bears are in the Power Rankings this week. They have been lingering around 15-16, they are tied for the 4th best record in the NFL. It is hard for me to not see them finally crack the top-10 but with so many naysayers, I suspect 12-13.

What is funny is they will rate teams like Buffalo and Cleveland higher but what's crazy is both of those teams have 4 wins and a negative pts differential. 

The Bears have an elite defense and if the games were called fairly, we would all be talking about a 33-9 blowout win.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

44 minutes ago, adam said:

about a 33-9 blowout win.

Lol...you went from 34-9 to 33-9 in one post.  Even your confidence is waning.  Lol

Not all that long ago, right around the time the team lost to the Colts 19-11 many were calling for Paganos head and sure we were done for the year.  Now suddenly our defense is “elite” and it would appear we have a legit team; even with the small errors on offense being made.  Of which I trust Foles (not so much Nagy) will be able to clean up. 

[adam]

40 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Lol...you went from 34-9 to 33-9 in one post.  Even your confidence is waning.  Lol

Not all that long ago, right around the time the team lost to the Colts 19-11 many were calling for Paganos head and sure we were done for the year.  Now suddenly our defense is “elite” and it would appear we have a legit team; even with the small errors on offense being made.  Of which I trust Foles (not so much Nagy) will be able to clean up. 

My math was off, we lost 4 on the Arob play and 7 on the Jackson TD (I was thinking 6 for the TD), that's 11, not 10. Then CAR gained 7 on the Johnson PI. 

[adam]

41 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Lol...you went from 34-9 to 33-9 in one post.  Even your confidence is waning.  Lol

Not all that long ago, right around the time the team lost to the Colts 19-11 many were calling for Paganos head and sure we were done for the year.  Now suddenly our defense is “elite” and it would appear we have a legit team; even with the small errors on offense being made.  Of which I trust Foles (not so much Nagy) will be able to clean up. 

A few players are really stepping up. Roquan is playing at an All-Pro level now and a big surprise for me has been Mario Edwards Jr. He has been playing some great ball. If we can clean up some of the crossing pattern stuff and keep gap integrity on the runs, we are going to be in great shape. 

[Connorbear]

Quoting Al Davis - Just win, baby!  

Matt Nagy is a heck of a head coach. I wish he would hand over the play calling to someone else. 

Peace

 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

3 hours ago, adam said:

A few players are really stepping up. Roquan is playing at an All-Pro level now and a big surprise for me has been Mario Edwards Jr. He has been playing some great ball. If we can clean up some of the crossing pattern stuff and keep gap integrity on the runs, we are going to be in great shape. 

I read somewhere that the rotational players; like Edwards, Urban, Mingo etc are  responsible for 35% of the teams sacks so far.  That’s pretty damn impressive.  
 

If you have some time to kill, check out these guys breaking down key plays. Briggs, Kreutz and Brown make for some entertaining ‘blue collar’ analytics. 
 

 

[adam]

So we now have a 78.3% chance to make the playoffs, the 3rd highest in the NFC behind Seattle and Tampa Bay. With 7 teams making the playoffs, the 8th place team is actually 4-2 (ARZ), so it's not like there has been any separation from the pack yet. The 9th team is NO at 3-2. SF is still a solid team at 3-3, and they are 10th. So even at 5-1, we are only 1 or 2 wins from being out of the playoffs looking in. With LAR, NO, TEN coming up, one win is a minimum, but 2 may be needed to keep pace.

 

[BearFan PHX]

20 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I read somewhere that the rotational players; like Edwards, Urban, Mingo etc are  responsible for 35% of the teams sacks so far.  That’s pretty damn impressive. 

I have seen them using Mack to clear out lanes for other players a lot this year too. Damn smart of Pagano, and ego-less of Mack. It makes it really hard for opposing offenses to know what to do about Mack, if half the time going after him actually hurts you somewhere else. And I dont just mean because resources arent available, but scheme-wise, Pagano has him moving laterally like a road grader, and not only occupying the two guys assigned to him, but taking out a third guy who is trying to block someone else.

It's one thing to use two guys to stop Mack from getting into the backfield and to the QB, but another to stop him fro also moving laterally to take out a 3rd blocker.

Awesome.

[adam]

16 minutes ago, BearFan NYC said:

I have seen them using Mack to clear out lanes for other players a lot this year too. Damn smart of Pagano, and ego-less of Mack. It makes it really hard for opposing offenses to know what to do about Mack, if half the time going after him actually hurts you somewhere else. And I dont just mean because resources arent available, but scheme-wise, Pagano has him moving laterally like a road grader, and not only occupying the two guys assigned to him, but taking out a third guy who is trying to block someone else.

It's one thing to use two guys to stop Mack from getting into the backfield and to the QB, but another to stop him fro also moving laterally to take out a 3rd blocker.

Awesome.

Yeah, especially if they send two linemen to block him and he drops into coverage. Now you have 2x O-Linemen on an island with no one to block while the other 3x linemen are trying to scramble and block the remaining rushers. 

[BearFan2000]

Earlier this year I commented that we need to start seeing the defense get after QB's, create pressure and that there is way too much talent on the D to not see better production.  Well, over the last few weeks it has gotten better and they seem to be taking weekly strides in getting more consistent.  I feel like it has a lot to do with lack of normal offseason programs and no preseason games that puts defenses slightly behind offenses.  It's good to see and I feel like Pagano is getting more creative in scheming to create added pressure.  I feel like our tackling is slowly getting more crisp in general as well.   With our offense playing the way it is it's on the D to keep games close.  At some point the offense is going to have to pull their weight.  It's sad when you see the statistic that we were the only team in the NFL to be shut out in any quarter.  It took us 6 games to finally put up points in the 3rd quarter.  A vast majority of our points this season have come in the 4th and that in large part due 4th quarter comebacks.  

[Mongo3451]

On 10/19/2020 at 12:35 PM, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Not all that long ago, right around the time the team lost to the Colts 19-11 many were calling for Paganos head and sure we were done for the year.

I know I was calling for Pagano's head, but never that our season was done.  The staff must have seen the same thing I was talking about, because the next game he dialed it up.  Now, the defense is in attack mode again and you can see a difference.  Kudos to Chuck for getting it in there.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

10 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I know I was calling for Pagano's head, but never that our season was done.  The staff must have seen the same thing I was talking about, because the next game he dialed it up.  Now, the defense is in attack mode again and you can see a difference.  Kudos to Chuck for getting it in there.

Wasn’t directed at you, just in general between here and other sites that talk Bears football.  I’m part of a ‘smack-talk’ group on Twitter too that was sure Pagano was the biggest problem on the D.

As BF2000 and Adam have said above and you, I think a lot of what we’re seeing from the D right now is Pagano getting more creative and the players getting more time to gel.  The lack of a true training camp and PS hurt a lot for what is normally a time to work out any wrinkles.  I will say this; what Pagano is making up in creativity Nagy continues to remain stagnant.  At this point I think Foles is better at running the offense than Nagy is calling it.

[Mongo3451]

2 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Wasn’t directed at you, just in general between here and other sites that talk Bears football.  I’m part of a ‘smack-talk’ group on Twitter too that was sure Pagano was the biggest problem on the D.

As BF2000 and Adam have said above and you, I think a lot of what we’re seeing from the D right now is Pagano getting more creative and the players getting more time to gel.  The lack of a true training camp and PS hurt a lot for what is normally a time to work out any wrinkles.  I will say this; what Pagano is making up in creativity Nagy continues to remain stagnant.  At this point I think Foles is better at running the offense than Nagy is calling it.

I didn't think it was, but it was a good segway.  And totally agree...

[adam]

So we are now #10 in the Sagarin Ratings (https://www.usatoday.com/sports/nfl/sagarin/)  with the 21st SoS (for record) and are now 14th in DVOA (https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/nfl/team-efficiency/2020) with the 13th toughest schedule in DVOA. Funny how a few weeks playing IND, TB, and CAR changed that theme. Our offense is 26th in DVOA (still bad), and our defense is #5. Surprisingly our Special Teams ranks 24th, which is odd to me with one of the best returners, solid punting and great kicking of late. 

Using the ELO model at 538 we are ranked 10th, have an 85% chance to make the playoffs and finish with an 11-5 record. btw, that means we only need to go 6-4 in our next 10 games, so we can expect 3-2 twice. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

27 minutes ago, adam said:

Our offense is 26th in DVOA (still bad)

26th with Nagy, Foles, adding Defilippo, Castillo, and Lazor. This part is frustrating.  Goes to show you need a star QB, decent oline, a running game, and lots of speed. By the time any of those pieces are in place the defense will be depleated.  The Bears going into 2021 will be over the cap.  Going to have to trim quite a bit because the cap will decrease too.  If they do continue to win, we are looking at 20 or after for a pick which puts us in a RT or CB/S range.  Might be a QB that has traits but needs time.  I wish Nagy and Pace would have realized what they had on D and built a power run game with a great FG kicker.  With this D, we still have a shot and maybe the offense will start clicking as Foles gets accumulated.

[BearFan2000]

17 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Wasn’t directed at you, just in general between here and other sites that talk Bears football.  I’m part of a ‘smack-talk’ group on Twitter too that was sure Pagano was the biggest problem on the D.

As BF2000 and Adam have said above and you, I think a lot of what we’re seeing from the D right now is Pagano getting more creative and the players getting more time to gel.  The lack of a true training camp and PS hurt a lot for what is normally a time to work out any wrinkles.  I will say this; what Pagano is making up in creativity Nagy continues to remain stagnant.  At this point I think Foles is better at running the offense than Nagy is calling it.

I feel like this is one of if not the biggest issues with our offense.   Naggy's play calling, and clock management or should I say mismanagement is holding us back.  We can wish for a true franchise QB or this skill player or that at whatever position, but when the offensive flow is hampered by poor play calling would it really make that much of a difference.  Stellar talent that is miss-managed is bound to not be as productive as it's potential.   This doesn't absolve the Oline play and that falls much on the shoulders of Pace not putting resources and draft capitol into building an offensive line that can protect whoever is back there or open running lanes for the backs.   A perfect example of this is that play at the goal line where we sent in a run heavy package with extra TE's to help block and we lost a yard.  The entire line got pushed back and Monty had no where to go (though I felt he should have recognized it and bounced it out and possibly could have walked in with everyone focused on the point of attack).  We've seen drives stalled because things are working well and then we do something dumb that puts us behind the chains then we do something dumber rather than go back to what has been working on the drive.   Or we get the defense on it's heals and rather than hurry up the pace we huddle up or call a time out and let their D regroup.  We are often our own worst enemy on offense.