Breaking Down the Offense

[Mongo3451]

I had nothing better to do today, so I took the time to do a breakdown of every offensive snap.  While we tend to look at things like time to throw, running lanes and play calling, I tried to focus on why.  What I found was 44 mistakes that could stand to be cleaned up.  There are always going to be mistakes that lead to failed execution, but 44 is way too many when you run 61 offensive plays.  Here's the tally for miscues.

QB=14, HC=2, TE=6, RB=4 and OL=18  Going try to copy my play by play sheet, but it may be ugly.

Play #	Actual Play	Comments
Play 1	Run off LT	Adequate block on edge
Play 2	Run middle	No push, no run lane
Play 3	Pass left	1st down
Play 4	Pass right	8 yds
Play 5	Run middle 2R	1st down negated by Ifedi
Play 5x2	Pass middle	Incomplete
Play 6	Pass middle	7 yards - 4th down
Play 7	Run off LT	3 yards, simply too many people in box
Play 8	Pass middle	Harris can't catch a cold.  Needs cut at seasons end
Play 9	Pass short left	2 yds, 4th down
Play 10	Pass deep left	Kmet great catch on underthrown ball
Play 11	Pass left	7 yds to Kmet on bootleg
Play 12	Run middle 2R	Whitehair and Coward fail to move NT.  Ifedi falsely gets blame from announcers.  Leno slacks on his block to let the DE assist.
Play 13	Run middle 2L	Great blocks by Leno and Coward to collapse, good seal from Kmet.  1st down
Play 14	Jet sweep rt	Kmet gets blown up and Montgomery fails to assist.  2yds
Play 15	Run off RT	Idiot Harris runs a route from the H instead of blocking Floyd.  3 yds.  Should have been 10
	End of 1st	Massie and Ifedi look good.  Mistakes by Kmet, Harris 2, Whitehair, Coward, Leno and Montgomery
Play 16	Pass middle	Rams send 5.  Coward and Massie whiff,  Whitehair doubles instead of picking up LB.  Short gain 4th down.  Foles fails to see Miller wide open deep middle.
Play 17	FG Good
Play 18	Run middle zone	1 yd.  Leno and Massie both let DE's get inside.  Negates fantastic individual blocks by Coward and Whitehair.  Should gone for 8
Play 19	Pass deep middle	Moonie beats his man.  Foles throws to wrong shoulder to miss a huge gain.  Potential TD if he leads him left.  Max protect
Play 20	Pass right	9yds, refs give us spot.  Challenge.  Lose
Play 21	QB sneak	Foles gets it, imo.  Coward false start.  Punt
Play 22	Pass rt	good catch.  11 yds
Play 23	Pass short left	6 yds Graham
Play 24	Pass short right	18yds.  Great play action
Play 25	Sack	Foles moves up, fails to see streaking reciever on left.  Coward can't pass block
Play 26	Run middle 2R	Ifedi run blocks well.  4yds.  OL needs to play to the whistle.
Play 27	Sack	Leonard Floyd makes Massie whiff.  Punt
	End of half	Nagy doesn't try for a punt block?  Mistakes by Massie 3, Coward 3, Foles 2,  Leno
Play 28	Run inside 4R	Harris holds.  Massie falls down.  Holtz lead blocks and slows before contact.  1yd
Play 29	Run inside 4R	Holtz lead blocks and makes it through.  Montgomery should be on his ass but shuffles and gets tripped 3 yards
Play 30	Pass deep left	Rams overload Leno and Coward.  Foles fails to hit hot read Robinson for a wide open first down.  Chucks it to Mooney instead and misses.
Play 31	Pass left	Nice quick hit to Harris 9 yards
Play 32	Run middle L2	Nice interior push 4yds
Play 33	Pass middle	Hot read Graham for 15 yds
Play 34	Run middle L4	Nothing there.  Monty jump cuts out for 12 yards.
Play 35	Pass deep right	Massie gets beat, Foles chucks and gets a big PI call
Play 36	Pass right	Harris for 7.  Nice play action
Play 37	Pass left	Foles throws jump ball to Mooney in endzone.  INT   Nagy took Graham out for that.  Terrible call and throw
Play 38	Toss sweep RT	Graham gets blown two yards back by Floyd and disrupts Massies pull.  Massie fails to recognize a chip oppportunity and Floyd forces runner out.  3 yard gain, should had over 10.
Play 39	Screen RT	runs in front of the play while not hitting anyone.  If coward hits one of the two he watched, this would have been a good play.  No gain
Play 40	Pass middle	Rams send 6.  Foles innnaccurate to the hot read Miller.  Miller makes great catch for 7.  Good blocking
Play 41	Run left	Leno does good job, but Coward fails to help Wims with a 265# DE, runs past him and blocks nobody.  Same DE blows up play.  See pic
Play 42	Pass deep	Hits Robinson with a dime.  42 yards
Play 43	Pass short left	Montgomery stupidly stays inbounds for a 3 yard gain
Play 44	Run middle L4	6 yard gain
Play 45	Run middle	Nice counter play for the first and goal
Play 46	Pass short rt	3yds to Graham.  Kmet probably would have gotten 5 with younger legs
Play 47	Run left	Leno is lazy and doesn't finish his down block.  Monty is jump cutting before the ball is secure, then spins to the LOS.  Should have been a gain.
Play 48	Pass right	Foles rolls rt and throws to pylon and misses his spot by 2 feet.  Incomplete.  Also Robinson was more open at back pylon.
Play 49	Sack	Foles fails to hit Jimmy at the goalline.  You have to trust the big guy.  Floyd abused Massie again.  Where is KMET
Play 50	Throw away	Foles fails to see Robinson at 8 yards, then rolls and throws away.  Robinson has a few yards left after the catch
Play 51	Pass deep middle	Massie gets owned by Floyd again.  Foles fails to step into his throw.  After watching several times, that big miss to Miller is on Foles.  He wasn't pressured that badly yet.  He arced it 3 feet over Floyd.
Play 52	Pass short left	Foles hit Monty on hot read.  Throws to wrong shoulder for short gain.  Foles had a man in his face.
Play 53	Pass short middle	Quick pass for first down to Robinson
Play 54	Pass short right	Montgomery stupidly stays inbounds for a 5 yard gain
Play 55	Pass deep right	Foles pressured fails to see wide open Robinson for first down and stop clock.  Instead flings one to Jimmy in double coverage
Play 56	Pass short rt	8 yards to Jimmy
Play 57	Pass deep middle	Hits Mooney for 18
Play 58	Throw away	Floyd abuses Leno
Play 59	Pass short middle	Monty for 10 yd
Play 60	Pass deep middle	Foles need to throw more towards the sideline to avoid the FS
Play 61	Pass short left	Graham for nothing
Play 62	Sack	Floyd abuses Leno
Play 63	Pass deep left	Wims wide open, Foles misses badly

Throughout the game Whitehair and Ifedi held their own with only 1 mistake apiece.  Coward was horrendous with 6 really bad ones that cost a few first downs and time of possession.  Leno and Massie were next with 5 apiece.  Neither had an answer for the great Leonard Floyd.  Leno is just lazy and Massie is clumsy.

Then there was Foles with 14 mistakes, whether it was innacuracy, missing hot reads or rushing his throws, he was simply terrible.  I'm going to cut him some slack for this one, but not the next.

Montgomery had 4 mistakes 2 of them cost yards and two cost valuable time. 

Our TE's were led by Harris who simply needs to be benched in favor of Kmet.

Nagy, not using Kmet or Graham with goal to go was inexcusable and why he didn't call a timeout before the half was a major headscratcher.  Try to block the damn punt!  Fight for your team to make a play.  

Ted Ginn should have been cut during the game yesterday.  I swear he must be banging Pace's wife or something.  He doesn't even try to field punts.  On one punt there was 15 yards from himself and the nearest defender.  He could have made a decent return with that, only to leave pinned inside the ten yard line again.

In summary, no more Ginn, Harris and Coward.  They simply offer no help to what we are trying to accomplish.  The young center looked good!

 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Nice breakdown, Mongo.  That had to take some time.

I thought maybe Foles would elevate the offense, but not sure if he can.  Too many issues to overcome from penalties, missed assignments, and bad play calls. He has missed throws and has had many throws into double and triple coverage, thrown off back foot and made mistakes analysts have been critical on Trubisky for.  I will say he does understand coverages and blitzes better, but we still can't score.

Maybe the Bears can implement a two QB system.  Play them both, whomever has the hot hand gets more snaps.  Foles is known as the great reliever or plays his best coming off the bench.  Why not give it a shot.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

Read this today.  Since taking over the offense, the Foles lead offense has been worse...actually last in NFL.  Trubisky at the helm produced over 300 yds a game, Foles 263.  Passer rating: Trubisky 87.4, Foles 77.6, QBR: Trubisky 56.4, Foles 46.2.  TDs/INT: Trubisky 6 td 3 int, Foles 6 td 6 int. Yards per carry avg: Trubisky 10.9, Foles  -1 yd per carry avg.  I know it is skewed with the Defenses they played, but just saying.

 

[Mongo3451]

34 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Read this today.  Since taking over the offense, the Foles lead offense has been worse...actually last in NFL.  Trubisky at the helm produced over 300 yds a game, Foles 263.  Passer rating: Trubisky 87.4, Foles 77.6, QBR: Trubisky 56.4, Foles 46.2.  TDs/INT: Trubisky 6 td 3 int, Foles 6 td 6 int. Yards per carry avg: Trubisky 10.9, Foles  -1 yd per carry avg.  I know it is skewed with the Defenses they played, but just saying.

 

While Foles can read a defense, Trubisky can run and the defense has to account for that.  ?.

The big story is that Foles threw Nagy and the OL under the bus according to the story Brian Griese told.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

While Foles can read a defense, Trubisky can run and the defense has to account for that.  ?.

The big story is that Foles threw Nagy and the OL under the bus according to the story Brian Griese told.

Heck, Foles is ranked 34th for yards per attempt, he is behind Trubisky at 30th.  Mitch can run and pass, just has trouble understanding defenses.

That was not good and Griese won't get any off the record talk from players anymore. Now Foles and Nagy have to sort this out and explain it. 

[Mongo3451]

7 hours ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

Heck, Foles is ranked 34th for yards per attempt, he is behind Trubisky at 30th.  Mitch can run and pass, just has trouble understanding defenses.

That was not good and Griese won't get any off the record talk from players anymore. Now Foles and Nagy have to sort this out and explain it. 

If Foles has another stinker, I'm pulling him.  They can be more effective designing runs and rollouts for Trubisky that will at least give the defense something else to think about.  Foles needs an OL more than Mitch does. 

In all actuality, I though Foles was moderately mobile, so why not roll him out a little?  Nagy needs to do something, even if it is giving up play calling.

Edited October 28, 2020 by Mongo3451

[adam]

Great work Mongo. I agree with all your sentiments. Ginn should be gone already, Harris should be TE5, and I would rather live with the growing pains of Bars or Mustipher than have Coward in there anymore. 

What I might look at is the number of plays and the result when it is no-huddle or tempo. To me, it looked like the entire offense and blocking was better when the defense couldn't sub. I also think Foles calls the plays himself without Nagy getting too cute. On the bad INT, which was a terrible throw and decision by Foles. I thought they were driving down the field quickly, then slowed the pace again before that play. That's how Graham was able to be subbed out. If that's the case, and based on how both Trubisky and Foles has looked so far, the QB is clearly not the biggest problem on offense.

[Mongo3451]

Thank you.  Let's put this in perspective.  John Shoop ran a more productive offense.  I think it starts with Nagy becoming more disciplined, even if it gets him out of play calling.

Kmet must start.  Coward can not ever play again.  Play action more. Rollout more.  Quick pitch the ball to get Monty outside 4 times a game.  Two TE sets all game.  If you are going to average 3 YPC, make the defense pay the price by beating the shit out of them.  Rant over...

[ASHKUM BEAR]

5 hours ago, adam said:

Great work Mongo. I agree with all your sentiments. Ginn should be gone already, Harris should be TE5, and I would rather live with the growing pains of Bars or Mustipher than have Coward in there anymore. 

What I might look at is the number of plays and the result when it is no-huddle or tempo. To me, it looked like the entire offense and blocking was better when the defense couldn't sub. I also think Foles calls the plays himself without Nagy getting too cute. On the bad INT, which was a terrible throw and decision by Foles. I thought they were driving down the field quickly, then slowed the pace again before that play. That's how Graham was able to be subbed out. If that's the case, and based on how both Trubisky and Foles has looked so far, the QB is clearly not the biggest problem on offense.

Foles imo would call a better game.  Did it seem after every timeout or the 2 minute clock stop, the Bears offense came out and the play got blown up.  That has a story to it too.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

26 minutes ago, ASHKUM BEAR said:

That has a story to it too.  

Yes there was/is.  Since the interview with Griese and after the game, Foles has since walked back some of his comments. 
 

https://chicago.suntimes.com/bears/2020/10/26/21535701/matt-nagy-nick-foles-react-to-espns-brian-grieses-comment-on-broadcast

[adam]

Foles knows the play is going to fail because there is not enough time for it to develop. That answers a lot about some of his bad throws. 

[Mongo3451]

This may be an unpopular thing to state, here goes.  I am perfectly willing to waste this defense for the next two years to use our draft capital on 4 offensive lineman drafted within the first 3 rounds and two defensive lineman within that same period. The last time we had a homegrown dominant OL and DL we won a Superbowl.  I'm tired of piecemeal and patchwork.  I want it to all start up front again.  Once that happens, your QB will emerge.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

59 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

This may be an unpopular thing to state, here goes.  I am perfectly willing to waste this defense for the next two years to use our draft capital on 4 offensive lineman drafted within the first 3 rounds and two defensive lineman within that same period. The last time we had a homegrown dominant OL and DL we won a Superbowl.  I'm tired of piecemeal and patchwork.  I want it to all start up front again.  Once that happens, your QB will emerge.

I’d personally prefer we wait until our team is worse than .500 before I consider that.  Probably won’t matter though as Pace and Nagy will be on borrowed time if they do.  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

20 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

This may be an unpopular thing to state, here goes.  I am perfectly willing to waste this defense for the next two years to use our draft capital on 4 offensive lineman drafted within the first 3 rounds and two defensive lineman within that same period. The last time we had a homegrown dominant OL and DL we won a Superbowl.  I'm tired of piecemeal and patchwork.  I want it to all start up front again.  Once that happens, your QB will emerge.

I'd trade the whole defense and just flat out build to where we can have a stacked run at things.  I'd also stop trading future draft capital and instead building reserves, ala the Patriots, which you can use to be creative.  

[Mongo3451]

35 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I'd trade the whole defense and just flat out build to where we can have a stacked run at things.  I'd also stop trading future draft capital and instead building reserves, ala the Patriots, which you can use to be creative.  

100%

[adam]

I agree that you have to win in the trenches. Future drafts in the first 3 rounds should be focus on O-Line and D-Line but that will be with a new GM. I don't have faith in Pace to do that.

What I would like to see, regardless of where the team is at is to go into the draft with the mindset that unless there is some ridiculous talent at your pick, you look to trade down. If you watch the Patriots, that is what they do. Seattle does it too. You don't even need to do that every pick, but a couple of moves down in a draft, and magically, you have 2-3 more picks. Then you have the flexibility to move back up if someone drops. Like if the Bears end up drafting in the 20's, I would rather trade out of the 1st, pick up an early 2nd plus extra picks. You do lose the 5th year option, but for me the extra picks are worth it and there is rarely much difference between a player at 25 vs 35 nowadays.  Trading up has really killed the Bears. They are going to have almost no choice but to blow everything up, maybe even as early as this offseason (with the lowered cap). 

[Lucky Luciano]

13 hours ago, adam said:

I agree that you have to win in the trenches. Future drafts in the first 3 rounds should be focus on O-Line and D-Line but that will be with a new GM. I don't have faith in Pace to do that.

What I would like to see, regardless of where the team is at is to go into the draft with the mindset that unless there is some ridiculous talent at your pick, you look to trade down. If you watch the Patriots, that is what they do. Seattle does it too. You don't even need to do that every pick, but a couple of moves down in a draft, and magically, you have 2-3 more picks. Then you have the flexibility to move back up if someone drops. Like if the Bears end up drafting in the 20's, I would rather trade out of the 1st, pick up an early 2nd plus extra picks. You do lose the 5th year option, but for me the extra picks are worth it and there is rarely much difference between a player at 25 vs 35 nowadays.  Trading up has really killed the Bears. They are going to have almost no choice but to blow everything up, maybe even as early as this offseason (with the lowered cap). 

i just don't agree with trading down very often unless the talent of the players at your draft position are repetitive for positions you are strong at. the highest quality talent with a higher potential to succeed at being more than marginally average are found in these higher rounds and trading down is limiting your ability to hit the mark.

as far as the patriots go... the difference between them and 90% of the rest of the nfl is who is lining up behind center. the same can be said about the packers. if you have a franchise/HOF player at that key position he makes everyone around him offensively better. you can afford to drop down and go for quantity over quality projections with the hope one turns out the latter. it also lets you manage your cap much better (unless you are the 49ers who cheated and stole multiple superbowl wins in the 90's cheating the cap).

the patriots have filled many many key spots on their team in free agency. you got top quality players willing to work at a discount for the hope of a ring.

also the patriots were and are a team that will cheat to win from the top to bottom of their franchise - owners, coaches and players.  you can go a long way in the nfl if you rob and steal from your peers.

[adam]

3 hours ago, Lucky Luciano said:

i just don't agree with trading down very often unless the talent of the players at your draft position are repetitive for positions you are strong at. the highest quality talent with a higher potential to succeed at being more than marginally average are found in these higher rounds and trading down is limiting your ability to hit the mark.

as far as the patriots go... the difference between them and 90% of the rest of the nfl is who is lining up behind center. the same can be said about the packers. if you have a franchise/HOF player at that key position he makes everyone around him offensively better. you can afford to drop down and go for quantity over quality projections with the hope one turns out the latter. it also lets you manage your cap much better (unless you are the 49ers who cheated and stole multiple superbowl wins in the 90's cheating the cap).

the patriots have filled many many key spots on their team in free agency. you got top quality players willing to work at a discount for the hope of a ring.

also the patriots were and are a team that will cheat to win from the top to bottom of their franchise - owners, coaches and players.  you can go a long way in the nfl if you rob and steal from your peers.

It is definitely situational but the numbers don't lie. Of equal draft trade value, more picks have a higher chance of success than a single pick. According to trade values, the 15th pick is worth 1050, which would be the equivalent to picks 31 and 45. Again unless there is some ridiculous talent sitting at 15, you would easily pass it up for picks 31 and 45. 

For the Bears, they have been on the giving end of too many trade ups, which has had the opposite effect on the team's roster. Now the team has cap issues and talent issues. Can't address one without the other.

Trade ups:
Floyd (4th), Kwiatkoski (6th rounder to move up 1 slot) Trubisky (2x 3rds and a 4th), Jackson (6th), Miller (4th), Montgomery (4th). There are a few other minor ones, but since Pace took over, he has traded away 2x 3rds, 4x 4ths, and 2x 6ths which is almost a year's worth of draft capital. He has Jackson and Montgomery to show for it.

[Mongo3451]

Forgot Mack

[Lucky Luciano]

20 hours ago, adam said:

It is definitely situational but the numbers don't lie. Of equal draft trade value, more picks have a higher chance of success than a single pick. According to trade values, the 15th pick is worth 1050, which would be the equivalent to picks 31 and 45. Again unless there is some ridiculous talent sitting at 15, you would easily pass it up for picks 31 and 45. 

For the Bears, they have been on the giving end of too many trade ups, which has had the opposite effect on the team's roster. Now the team has cap issues and talent issues. Can't address one without the other.

Trade ups:
Floyd (4th), Kwiatkoski (6th rounder to move up 1 slot) Trubisky (2x 3rds and a 4th), Jackson (6th), Miller (4th), Montgomery (4th). There are a few other minor ones, but since Pace took over, he has traded away 2x 3rds, 4x 4ths, and 2x 6ths which is almost a year's worth of draft capital. He has Jackson and Montgomery to show for it.

a long while ago i did some research on all pro, pro bowl and HOF players and the order of their draft status. it clearly showed a much higher percentage of these premium players were drafted high in the first round than not. if your goal is to fill your roster with good players which may be the case in some instances (not franchise quality} then i believe your way to be one option.

are there a lot of busts drafting high in your slot? yes, but your chances are much better to get that franchise player than if you trade down if that is your goal.

[adam]

19 minutes ago, Lucky Luciano said:

a long while ago i did some research on all pro, pro bowl and HOF players and the order of their draft status. it clearly showed a much higher percentage of these premium players were drafted high in the first round than not. if your goal is to fill your roster with good players which may be the case in some instances (not franchise quality} then i believe your way to be one option.

are there a lot of busts drafting high in your slot? yes, but your chances are much better to get that franchise player than if you trade down if that is your goal.

Lucky, the percentage does drop but the biggest dropoff happens after pick 11-12. After that, there are groups who perform relatively similar. So trading down always yields better odds. Also, you always have less higher picks, and based on how the Bears have picked in the first and second rounds over the past 25 years, it would seem like a pretty easy decision to move down. Now again, you can't do it every time, and if there is someone there with high value, you take them. However, if there is no consensus shoe-in pick at that point, you look to move down and gain draft capital.

You can look at different drafts and take a common sample size and compare two points in the draft where you could not tell which group was drafted first. In 2015, Pick 122 (4th Round) to pick 149 (5th Round), in those 28 picks, you had Zadarius Smith, Kwon Alexander, Grady Jarrett, and Jay Ajayi as Pro Bowlers with Stefon Diggs, Adrian Amos, Max Garcia, Mark Glowinski, Shaq Mason, and Mike Davis. If you don't count injury (Ajayi), 9 of those 10 players could be starting on the Bears today.

Smith, Alexander, Jarrett, Ajayi, Diggs, Amos, Garcia, Glowinski, Mason, and Davis, those 10 players draft slots are equivalent to a mid-2nd Round pick. Pick 50-52 = Ronald Darby, Nate Orchard, Jordan Phillips that year. So I know this is not exactly how it works, but if I can trade 1x mid-2nd Rounder for the equivalent to 10 late 4th, early 5th rounders, the odds of me hitting on a few are way higher than hitting on the single pick. You also don't have to take the capital in the same year. So move back in the 2nd, add a 4th this year and a 4th next year. After doing that for a few years, you now magically have 7 picks in the first 5 rounds every draft. Now you have the flexibility to move back up or move down as needed.

Another factor that shows with a lot of teams is depth. You mention filling your roster with good players. That is exactly how you win. The odds of injury is so high that unless you have quality depth or good players beyond your starting 22, you are going to get beat. Just think of sub packages, a defense needs closer to 15-16 starting quality players nowadays. You will never get there drafting the way Pace has since he came to Chicago. 

[BearFan PHX]

right. trading down is always a good idea, unless someone great falls.

Now theres a reason people fall, and some GMs avoid those players, and other GMs pounce on them or trade up to get them. And that's why we havent been trading down.

Now are there times good players fall because of their position, and the way the draft board goes? Sure. But more often than not, a falling good player has some GMs that doubt them.

All the more reason that trading down is usually a good move. Of ocurse trading down means someone else wants to trade up, so theres another GM that wants to grab a player by moving up.

But Belichick moves down a lot more than he moves up.

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, BearFan NYC said:

But Belichick moves down a lot more than he moves up.

It's all about the math and attitude.  There is not a 2nd or 3rd rounds player out there that doesn't think they should've been a first rounder.  They come in pissed off and hungry at a third of the price.  And you get more of them...

[BearFan PHX]

Just now, Mongo3451 said:

It's all about the math and attitude.  There is not a 2nd or 3rd rounds player out there that doesn't think they should've been a first rounder.  They come in pissed off and hungry at a third of the price.  And you get more of them...

good point, and then you listen to your coaches. I hadnt thought of that angle.

[adam]

On 11/6/2020 at 7:25 PM, Mongo3451 said:

It's all about the math and attitude.  There is not a 2nd or 3rd rounds player out there that doesn't think they should've been a first rounder.  They come in pissed off and hungry at a third of the price.  And you get more of them...

Good point Mongo, that is definitely some added motivation. If you look at the numbers clearly show more picks has a higher chance at success than one pick (unless it is QB).