Current Draft Order

[adam]

Thru the early games today, here is the current Draft Order. The Bears are literally in no man's land at #16. They also will be the only team in the NFL with exactly a .500 record thru Week 11. 

So depending on how things go, the Bears are only 1.5 games away from a top 10 pick and a game out of the last wild card spot. Not only that, if they somehow beat the Packers next week, they would only be a game back in the division. So next week the season is literally on the line in so many different ways. A win and the Bears actually put themselves in a pretty good spot for a playoff berth. Mainly because the two teams the Bears are chasing play each other twice (ARZ/LAR). Either those teams both win 1 and lose 1 or one team wins both and the other loses both. A win against GB would also setup for a potential Division Championship Game in Week 17. With a loss though the Bears would be at least two games out with 5 to play and would drop to a pick somewhere between 12-14.

1. NYJ 0-10
2. JAX 1-9
3. CIN 2-7-1
4. HOU 3-7
5. ATL 3-7
6. DAL 3-7
7. WAS 3-7
8. NYG 3-7
9. LAC 3-7
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10. CAR 4-7
11. SF 4-6
12. DET 4-6
13. NE 4-6
14. DEN 4-6
15. MIN 4-6
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16. CHI 5-5
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17. MIA 6-4
18. BAL 6-4
===========
19. PHI 3-6-1*
20. ARZ 6-4
21. LAR 6-3
22. LVR 6-3
23. CLE 7-3
24. TEN 7-3
25. TB 7-3
26. GB 7-3*
27. IND 7-3*
28. BUF 7-3*
29. SEA 7-3*
30. KC 8-1*
31. NO 8-2*
32. PIT 10-0*

[Bears4Ever_34]

http://www.tankathon.com/nfl

Bears currently picking at 14 after yesterday's game. 

SF leapfrogging us is a good thing, because you know that's one team that absolutely wants to draft a quarterback in the 1st round if possible. New England is another team right behind us at 15 that would probably like to have a QB if one of the 4 main guys are available. 

The Jets, Jaguars, Redskins, and Broncos are 4 teams that you can bet your house on that will take a quarterback if any of the 4 are available, and teams like PHI, ATL, DET, and MIN, who are all ahead of the Bears in draft order, are possible sleeper teams that could target a quarterback.

Needless to say, the Bears are going to have some steep competition to get one of those guys before some of these other teams do, and I think they're going to have to be inside the top 10 to do it. Given the schedule the rest of the way, I don't see them doing that. They'll get at least 1 win against JAX and probably another against DET. 7-9 seems to be the most likely scenario.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

25 minutes ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

SF leapfrogging us is a good thing, because you know that's one team that absolutely wants to draft a quarterback in the 1st round if possible.

That’s funny...I see what you did there!  Lol!!!

[Connorbear]

Take the best OL available (Slater from NW would be fantastic) and get a QB in round 2. 

Peace

[ASHKUM BEAR]

41 minutes ago, Connorbear said:

Take the best OL available (Slater from NW would be fantastic) and get a QB in round 2. 

Peace

This.  Putting a young QB behind a bad line is the best way to ruin him.  Get the oline set first.  If it means missing out on that mid-1st rd QB so be it.  Unless Pace finds that conviction again, then trade up ?

If they can upgrade the oline to top 10 level, Foles and Trubisky might be good enough to carry the team another year and allow them to trade up like KC was able to with Smith under center.  

[adam]

One bright side to that loss, we gained some ground on a top 10 pick. The Bears are now 1 game out of the #8 pick and 1.5 games out of the #7 pick with 5 games to play. I don't expect the Chargers to keep losing, Carolina looks like a strong team, Washington is playing better with Smith at QB, Atlanta just blew the doors off the Raiders, Houston is playing some good ball and Denver was playing decent when they had an actual QB play. Those teams will all have more wins than the Bears by the end of the year. I think the only game the Bears win is against Jacksonville and end up at 6-10. That should be good enough for pick 8-10, which should be in reach of a QB.

1. NYJ 0-11
2. JAX 1-10
3. CIN 2-8-1
4. DAL 3-8 
5. LAC 3-8 
6. PHI 3-7-1
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7. CAR 4-8 
8. WAS 4-7
9. DET 4-7
10. ATL 4-7
11. HOU 4-7 
12. DEN 4-7
13. CHI 5-6 
14. MIN 5-6
15. NE 5-6
16. SF 5-6

Looking at the teams to guarantee to be ahead of the Bears, the Jets and the Jags are going QB. Then the others would be PHI and WAS possibly. Carolina has Bridgewater, Chargers have Herbert, Bengals have Burrow. So the Bears will for sure get no better than the #3 QB in the draft. If there is no one worthy of that pick in the top 10, go OLine.

[Mongo3451]

My guess is that we end up around 11-12.  Nagy is going to do everything he can to get wins for his resume. (Lol, maybe that helps ensure a loss)

Completely disagree with drafting a QB.  That is going to be a hot button topic until draft day, maybe after.  IMO, we will be worse next year and have a better position to draft our QB.  At that time, our rookie OT's will be in their second year.  Put the infrastructure in place before the QB.  (Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, Mahomes, Flacco, Dilfer, Johnson, Wilson and Rodgers all had that luxury)  That's fifteen of the last twenty Superbowl champs.

[adam]

3 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

My guess is that we end up around 11-12.  Nagy is going to do everything he can to get wins for his resume. (Lol, maybe that helps ensure a loss)

Completely disagree with drafting a QB.  That is going to be a hot button topic until draft day, maybe after.  IMO, we will be worse next year and have a better position to draft our QB.  At that time, our rookie OT's will be in their second year.  Put the infrastructure in place before the QB.  (Brady, Brees, Roethlisberger, Mahomes, Flacco, Dilfer, Johnson, Wilson and Rodgers all had that luxury)  That's fifteen of the last twenty Superbowl champs.

I don't think you take anything off the table, especially when drafting a QB. We already have 2x solid O-Linemen in Whitehair and Daniels. Mustipher actually looks pretty good and Bars is an upgrade over Coward. If you draft a guy and bring in an FA, you are pretty solid on the O-Line going into 2021. If a QB is there at 11-12, and he has a first round grade, you take him. Remember where Mahomes and Watson were selected. All those teams in the top 10 had to a chance to pick either of them but passed.

Cleveland drafted Garrett 1st, passed on Mahomes and Watson, then drafted Mayfield #1 the following year.  They could've went Mahomes in 2017, Quentin Nelson in 2018 instead of Garrett/Mayfield, then drafted Chubb instead of Ward at #4. No one talks about that. 

[Mongo3451]

53 minutes ago, adam said:

Remember where Mahomes and Watson were selected. All those teams in the top 10 had to a chance to pick either of them but passed.

I remember.  Thing is, they both had a decent situation to go to.  Do you honestly think Mahomes would be what he is on the Browns?  And no more FA linemen.  They are let go for a reason, older and more expensive than a draft choice.  My opinion will not be swayed on the matter and urgency of drafting and developing our OL and DL.  They make the QB good to great.

[adam]

27 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

I remember.  Thing is, they both had a decent situation to go to.  Do you honestly think Mahomes would be what he is on the Browns?  And no more FA linemen.  They are let go for a reason, older and more expensive than a draft choice.  My opinion will not be swayed on the matter and urgency of drafting and developing our OL and DL.  They make the QB good to great.

I agree to an extent, but Watson had a horrible situation in Houston where he was running for his life half the time, but he is still elite. Wilson has had some of the worse offensive lines in the league for years, yet there he is year in and year out making plays. Mahomes would be no different.

If you need great players around you to be great, you're not great. A great QB actually makes the entire offense better and is more valuable than any other single player on the team. Once you have one of those guys, you build around him. It's much harder to do it the other way around because who knows when you will find that guy? That is a huge unknown variable. Indy is going that route right now. They have a young, talented roster with an old QB. They are never going to be bad enough with that talent to get a top 15 pick, so what do they do?

So if you get a top 10 pick and a top QB is available, you have to take your shot because who knows when you will be back there.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, adam said:

I agree to an extent, but Watson had a horrible situation in Houston where he was running for his life half the time, but he is still elite. Wilson has had some of the worse offensive lines in the league for years, yet there he is year in and year out making plays. Mahomes would be no different.

Not all that long ago we discussed how bad Cutler was playing because the o-line wasn’t giving him time.  Yet at that same time Rodgers was getting sacked and rushed with more frequency and still making plays.  

[adam]

20 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Not all that long ago we discussed how bad Cutler was playing because the o-line wasn’t giving him time.  Yet at that same time Rodgers was getting sacked and rushed with more frequency and still making plays.  

The true franchise guys can overcome bad O-Line, bad receivers, etc. The next tier needs help, then the bottom tier fails regardless of the situation. If you have a middle tier guy, you can win with a decent team around him (Eli Manning), but a bad QB needs a historically great team to have a chance (Dilfer). The teams you see as consistent contenders have great QBs. Gotta hit on QB and make that the priority every off season until you find one. Then build. 

[Mongo3451]

13 minutes ago, adam said:

The true franchise guys can overcome bad O-Line, bad receivers, etc.

Name one that wasn't highly mobile.

[adam]

3 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Name one that wasn't highly mobile.

Brady, Brees, Peyton, Big Ben, Matt Ryan, Stafford, Favre, Marino, Elway, Montana? 

[Mongo3451]

All had good lines and receivers as you mentioned.  Thanks for solving the mystery.

46 minutes ago, adam said:

Brady, Brees, Peyton, Big Ben, Matt Ryan, Stafford, Favre, Marino, Elway, Montana? 

[adam]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

All had good lines and receivers as you mentioned.  Thanks for solving the mystery.

Come on Mongo. Name all the All-Pro and HoFers for Brady, Brees, Peyton, Big Ben, Ryan, Stafford, or Favre on the O-Line. They had some good lines some years, but not all or not any historically great lines. 

Favre, Brady, Big Ben all have over 500 sacks against. You can add Rivers to that list soon too. 

Brady has historically had no-name receivers. Look at what Manning's receivers did when they played with another QB. They have each had a few, but the constant has been them, not their O-Lines or Receivers. It's a team game and they are going to get some good players next to them, and when they did, that's when the magic happens. A great QB with at least a good team is a SB contender. A great O-Line with a good team looks like Indy right now. A good playoff team, but won't go far in the playoffs.

If O-line was the #1 factor, MIN, TEN, CLE, NE, and JAX would be the top 5 teams in the league as they have the best O-Lines in the league. PIT is 10-0 and has the 4th worst O-Line in the league:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/foplus/dvoa-database/basic-offensive-defensive-line-stats?year=2020&offense_defense=offense

 

I am not saying O-Line is not important, and I would not be opposed to drafting O-Line early and often in all drafts, but without the competent QB, the line doesn't matter.

[Mongo3451]

It's chicken and egg Adam and you are totally failing to see the point.  Maybe I have failed to make it.  We agree that the most important position on a football team is quarterback.  That's really not debatable.  Was is debatable is the chicken vs the egg.

My argument for OL increases the odds of success of the quarterback. (I mean any quarterback)  I forget the name of the guy that took the Patriots to playoffs after Brady blew his knee out.  He came in and succeeded with that no name receiver group, but he had a really good offensive line and got it done.  Then, he went free agent and got paid huge money.  Guess what?  OL was not good where he went and tanksville went his career.  We have seen it over and over. 

At this point, it's all about philosophical differences.  If you think any drafted quarterback can survive this shit show, I love your faith.  With our cap situation, potentially losing our #1 receiver and needing OL, QB, WR, S and EDGE, our team cannot sustain a me QB.  I just want us to be patient and do it the safe way, so we don't waste another top pick.

[adam]

2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

It's chicken and egg Adam and you are totally failing to see the point.  Maybe I have failed to make it.  We agree that the most important position on a football team is quarterback.  That's really not debatable.  Was is debatable is the chicken vs the egg.

My argument for OL increases the odds of success of the quarterback. (I mean any quarterback)  I forget the name of the guy that took the Patriots to playoffs after Brady blew his knee out.  He came in and succeeded with that no name receiver group, but he had a really good offensive line and got it done.  Then, he went free agent and got paid huge money.  Guess what?  OL was not good where he went and tanksville went his career.  We have seen it over and over. 

At this point, it's all about philosophical differences.  If you think any drafted quarterback can survive this shit show, I love your faith.  With our cap situation, potentially losing our #1 receiver and needing OL, QB, WR, S and EDGE, our team cannot sustain a me QB.  I just want us to be patient and do it the safe way, so we don't waste another top pick.

Mongo,
I am tracking everything you are saying, and I agree that not many QBs would do much in this offense or behind this O-Line, but I wouldn't want to pass on one who is a potential franchise QB. You can still sit the rookie QB while you build the team up, but don't pass on one with the hope that one will be there in the future.

 

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, adam said:

Mongo,
I am tracking everything you are saying, and I agree that not many QBs would do much in this offense or behind this O-Line, but I wouldn't want to pass on one who is a potential franchise QB. You can still sit the rookie QB while you build the team up, but don't pass on one with the hope that one will be there in the future.

 

I agree under normal circumstances.  We've seen this too many times for it to be normal.  Full measures must be taken.  I guess I'm shell shocked about the incompetence of Pace.

[ASHKUM BEAR]

4 hours ago, adam said:

Mongo,
I am tracking everything you are saying, and I agree that not many QBs would do much in this offense or behind this O-Line, but I wouldn't want to pass on one who is a potential franchise QB. You can still sit the rookie QB while you build the team up, but don't pass on one with the hope that one will be there in 

  The Bears salary window is now closed, so they will most likely need to re-build the D too.  If the Bears decide to continue with this core, which means moving cap and tighten future windows, they might become a wildcard contender. Can they draft a QB if they get into the top 10 and maybe land  LT/RT in RD2 and then find a G/C rd 3?  All possible, but it will leave a hole at one of the OT spots and defensive line.  Teddy and Mikey will have to think about the options. Sure wish Pace didn't miss as much as he has early in the drafts.  

[adam]

18 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

I agree under normal circumstances.  We've seen this too many times for it to be normal.  Full measures must be taken.  I guess I'm shell shocked about the incompetence of Pace.

Oh, if it's Pace, you absolutely avoid QB. He has no ability to evaluate that position. 

It can't be him. He got a pass with John Fox, but he should still be held accountable for those years. 

[Mongo3451]

10 minutes ago, adam said:

Oh, if it's Pace, you absolutely avoid QB. He has no ability to evaluate that position. 

It can't be him. He got a pass with John Fox, but he should still be held accountable for those years. 

Crazy, I was just getting ready to reach out on this thread.

On Fox, I personally think he deserves a ton of credit for the 2018 team.  He was also on record for wanting to draft Desaun Watson in lieu of Trubisky.  

I was reading draft projects for the upcoming draft.  Good news on both major need fronts.  8 of the top 100 prospects are QB's.  Then, we have 11 OT's in the top 100, making it the deepest class in years.  If we can get two of those eleven, I would gladly squeeze your QB in there. (As long as they let the line gel before playing the youngin)

[Alaskan Grizzly]

29 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

On Fox, I personally think he deserves a ton of credit for the 2018 team.  He was also on record for wanting to draft Desaun Watson in lieu of Trubisky.  

Couldn’t agree more. Fox was the perfect caretaker for the teams transition at the time.  Especially in hindsight.  Also in hindsight he maybe should’ve been given a little bit longer. 

[BearFan2000]

Fox also did a lot to clean up the toxic locker room left by Dr Death.  Things were a mess when he took over.  

[adam]

Fox was the scapegoat. He had a mess to clean up his first year, Cutler injured in year 2, then had Glennon/Trubisky in year 3. Not many coaches are going to succeed in that situation. 

The Bears went 14-34 under him, but 20 losses were within 8pts or less. If they win half of those, they are 24-24 under him and it looks like a completely different team.