Current Draft Order

[DABEARSDABOMB]

On 12/1/2020 at 6:57 PM, adam said:

Come on Mongo. Name all the All-Pro and HoFers for Brady, Brees, Peyton, Big Ben, Ryan, Stafford, or Favre on the O-Line. They had some good lines some years, but not all or not any historically great lines. 

Favre, Brady, Big Ben all have over 500 sacks against. You can add Rivers to that list soon too. 

Brady has historically had no-name receivers. Look at what Manning's receivers did when they played with another QB. They have each had a few, but the constant has been them, not their O-Lines or Receivers. It's a team game and they are going to get some good players next to them, and when they did, that's when the magic happens. A great QB with at least a good team is a SB contender. A great O-Line with a good team looks like Indy right now. A good playoff team, but won't go far in the playoffs.

If O-line was the #1 factor, MIN, TEN, CLE, NE, and JAX would be the top 5 teams in the league as they have the best O-Lines in the league. PIT is 10-0 and has the 4th worst O-Line in the league:

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/foplus/dvoa-database/basic-offensive-defensive-line-stats?year=2020&offense_defense=offense

 

I am not saying O-Line is not important, and I would not be opposed to drafting O-Line early and often in all drafts, but without the competent QB, the line doesn't matter.

The one constant is Diva Wideouts rarely drive success. It is why I have kind of said overpaying for Robinson, as solid and quality as he is, just isn't worth it. Teams just don't seem to win at high clips having a ton of salary cap space tied to the wideout spot. Tie it to the pass rushers, db's, line and QB.  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

6 hours ago, adam said:

Fox was the scapegoat. He had a mess to clean up his first year, Cutler injured in year 2, then had Glennon/Trubisky in year 3. Not many coaches are going to succeed in that situation. 

The Bears went 14-34 under him, but 20 losses were within 8pts or less. If they win half of those, they are 24-24 under him and it looks like a completely different team.

This - I think the team Pace built was the team Fox would have taken to the next level and it would have been a sustained next level.  

[adam]

On 12/3/2020 at 9:42 PM, DABEARSDABOMB said:

This - I think the team Pace built was the team Fox would have taken to the next level and it would have been a sustained next level.  

Look what Fox did in Denver. He made it work with Tebow and got a playoff win against the Steelers. That was impressive. I think he was handed a pile of crap post Emery/Trestman and was then the easy scapegoat after 3 years. 

Just think if he was in on the draft in 2017, he liked Watson, and was blindsided by the Trubisky move. We could've had Watson + those draft picks back, which could've been an O-Lineman. He might still be coaching the team with Fangio as the D-Coordinator if that happened.

[adam]

1. NYJ 0-11
2. JAX 1-9
3. CIN 2-8-1
4. LAC 3-9
5. DAL 3-8 TNF
6. PHI 3-8-1 
-----------
7. ATL 4-8
8. HOU 4-8
9. CAR 4-8
10. WAS 4-7 MNF
11. DEN 4-7 SNF
12. DET 5-6
13. CHI 5-6
14. SF 5-6 MNF

We gained at least one spot with the loss and could make it all the way to 10-12 this week.

[Bears4Ever_34]

22 minutes ago, adam said:

1. NYJ 0-11
2. JAX 1-9
3. CIN 2-8-1
4. HOU 3-8
5. ATL 3-8
6. DAL 3-7
7. WAS 3-7
8. NYG 3-7
9. LAC 3-7
-----------
10. CAR 4-7
11. SF 4-6
12. NE 4-6
13. DEN 4-6
14. MIN 4-6
15. CHI 5-6
16. DET 5-6

We gained at least one spot with the loss and could make it all the way to 11-13 this week.

They were 13th before today's game, not 15th. 

http://www.tankathon.com/nfl/mock_draft

[adam]

2 hours ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

They were 13th before today's game, not 15th. 

http://www.tankathon.com/nfl/mock_draft

Yeah, NE and SF hadn't won yet when I posted that last week.

Depending on how SOS plays out (best SOS is considered the better team) we can end up between 11-14 this week. All 3 teams behind us have tough matchups, but if the Giants can beat the Seahawks, anything is possible. We are still only a game out from the 7th pick with 4 games left. 

1. NYJ 0-12
2. JAX 1-11
3. CIN 2-9-1
4. LAC 3-9
5. DAL 3-8 TNF
6. PHI 3-8-1 
-----------
7. ATL 4-8
8. HOU 4-8
9. CAR 4-8
10. WAS 4-7 MNF
11. DEN 4-7 SNF
12. DET 5-7
13. CHI 5-7
14. SF 5-6 MNF

[Mongo3451]

Crazy, 3 teams below is are within a game of their division.  

[adam]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

Crazy, 3 teams below is are within a game of their division.  

Wanna know what is even crazier, the Bears are still only 1 game out of the 7th playoff spot (now held by MIN). They would have to win out at this point, but 9-7 will more than likely be enough for that spot. ARZ keeps losing and now SF is in the mix. 

[adam]

1. NYJ 0-12
2. JAX 1-11
3. CIN 2-9-1
4. LAC 3-9
5. DAL 3-8 TNF
6. PHI 3-8-1 
-----------
7. ATL 4-8
8. HOU 4-8
9. CAR 4-8
10. DEN 4-8
11. WAS 5-7
12. DET 5-7
13. CHI 5-7
14. SF 5-6 MNF

[Bears4Ever_34]

Washington and SF winning would be good for the Bears. Washington has a brutal schedule down the stretch, but I think you'd rather have them win the division instead of the Giants, because I don't think the Giants would be in the market for a quarterback.

[adam]

On 12/7/2020 at 7:50 PM, Bears4Ever_34 said:

Washington and SF winning would be good for the Bears. Washington has a brutal schedule down the stretch, but I think you'd rather have them win the division instead of the Giants, because I don't think the Giants would be in the market for a quarterback.

Yeah, that is one of the bigger problems. This is one of the worst years to need a QB and not have a top 10 pick.

1. NYJ - Lawrence
2. JAX - Best QB not named Trevor
3. CIN - won't need a QB, but teams can trade up to here
4. LAC - won't need a QB, but teams can trade up to here
5. DAL - possible, depends on Dak
6. PHI - possible, Wentz Hurts, but you never know
7. ATL 4-8 - possible, perfect chance to nab Ryan's replacement
8. HOU 4-8 - unlikely, traded to MIA who won't need a QB, but teams can trade up to here
9. CAR 4-8 - doubtful, depends on how they view Bridgewater
10. DEN 4-8 - will need a QB, Lock is not the answer
11. WAS 5-7  - will need a QB, another chance to get their QB and have them sit behind Smith
12. DET 5-7 - may move on from Stafford, even if they don't they could pull the trigger.
13. CHI 5-7 - depends on what they do with developmental QB Trubisky
14. SF 5-7 - possible, Jimmy G not the answer

Getting in front of Denver and Washington would be huge. That could give the Bears the 3rd QB off the board. Even the 4th QB gives you the pick between the last of Fields, Lance, and Wilson. The 5th is where the value drops off. 

[adam]

This is the realistic tanking pool the Bears are in. With 4 games remaining, they can potentially leap frog the following teams in draft position:

7 . CAR 4-8 (.536) vsDEN
8. ATL 4-8 (.536) @LAC
9. HOU 4-8 (.549) @CHI
10. DEN 4-8 (.568) @CAR

11. WAS 5-7 (.461) @SF
12. DET 5-7 (.505)  vsGB
13. CHI 5-7 (.516) vsHOU
14. SF 5-7 (.534) vsWAS

SoS is the tiebreaker, so all the Bears need to do to pass CAR, ATL, HOU, and DEN is have the same record as them. A loss against HOU this week would allow the Bears to gain one slot, and since CAR plays DEN, one team will end up tied with the Bears, so that is another guaranteed slot to move to 11th. SF plays WAS, so a WAS win would give the Bears another slot to 10th. ATL is playing a worse team in LAC so they should be favored, which would bump the Bears to 9th. 

So if the Bears lose and the other games play out as projected, the Bears could be 5-8 with the 9th pick and only behind one of CAR or DEN at 4-9 and DET at 5-8. CAR plays GB in Week 15 and DEN plays BUF, so those are both expected losses. DET plays TEN, so that is an unlikely win for DET as well. So this is the move week. I don't see them gaining any draft position next week.

[lemonej]

The QB I like Is Fla's Trask

[adam]

2 hours ago, lemonej said:

The QB I like Is Fla's Trask

So there seems to be 5 very solid QB prospects this year. Trask reminds me of Big Ben, 6'5" and 240 is a tank back there. Mac Jones has really impressed with a crazy completion % with the average over 12. Trask has a ridiculous QB-INT ratio, 38-3 is mind boggling good. All these guys are at least 6'3", all have better comp%, AVG, and TD-INT than both Mahomes and Watson, which is impressive. The assumption is Lawrence goes #1, but looking at the raw numbers, he has the worst comp% of the group, lowest average, and is in the middle of the pack for TD-INT. His biggest factor is his size at 6'6" and experience. I will need to watch some tape on these guys but I would not be disappointed if we got any of them. I feel like at worst you are looking at a decent NFL starter.

Trevor Lawrence - 69.2% Comp, 20-3 TD-INT, 9.7 AVG, 2431 yards - 38 G, 6'6"
Justin Fields - 78.1% Comp, 15-3 TD-INT, 10.3 AVG, 1407 yards - 31 G, 6'3"
Mac Jones - 75.7% Comp, 27-3 TD-INT, 12.2 AVG, 3113 yards - 26 G, 6'3"
Kyle Trask - 71.4% Comp, 38-3 TD-INT, 10.1 AVG, 3243 yards - 24 G, 6'5"
Zach Wilson - 73.0% Comp, 27-3 TD-INT, 11.1 AVG, 2964 yards - 28 G, 6'3"

Patrick Mahomes - 65.7%, 41-10 TD-INT, 8.5 AVG, 5052 yards - 32 G, 6'3"
Deshaun Watson - 67.4%, 41-17 TD-INT, 7.9 AVG, 4593 yards - 38 G , 6'3"

[DABEARSDABOMB]

6 hours ago, lemonej said:

The QB I like Is Fla's Trask

Me too. It really looks like despite some physical limitations, he knows how to read defenses and spread the ball all over the field.  I feel like now more than ever that is the big differentiating skill set.  What do I know though - cause he's like the 4th/5th rated QB by most experts (with most having Lawrence, Fields, Wilson, and Lance all ahead of Trask).  

[BearFan2000]

This upcoming draft is a good one to get out future QB and also address the OL.  We should pick high enough to have our pick of at least 3 of these guys.  Having a guy like Trask who's a big body QB more in the mold of Big Ben in theory helps with his durability, and should make him harder to bring down.  Definitely will have to look at some film.   It is interesting how Lawrence stacks up to the other QB's in the draft based on these stats.  His experience is a valuable thing that teams will like.  But it could also be that he goes first but is then overshadowed by guys who go later.  Happens all the time.  We don't need to find the best of these 5, we just need to find the best one that fits our team and whoever the new gm/coach will be.  

[killakrzydav]

Tank for Trask!!

[jason]

On 12/3/2020 at 9:40 PM, DABEARSDABOMB said:

The one constant is Diva Wideouts rarely drive success. It is why I have kind of said overpaying for Robinson, as solid and quality as he is, just isn't worth it. Teams just don't seem to win at high clips having a ton of salary cap space tied to the wideout spot. Tie it to the pass rushers, db's, line and QB.  

On the same token, save money on RB. Emmitt Smith will forever be overrated to me because he ran behind the best OL of all time. And I can't remember all the nobodies like Olandis Gary that Denver trotted out for 1,000yd seasons behind their awesome line and blocking schemes in the mid/late 90s.

[jason]

On 12/10/2020 at 11:00 AM, adam said:

So there seems to be 5 very solid QB prospects this year. Trask reminds me of Big Ben, 6'5" and 240 is a tank back there. Mac Jones has really impressed with a crazy completion % with the average over 12. Trask has a ridiculous QB-INT ratio, 38-3 is mind boggling good. All these guys are at least 6'3", all have better comp%, AVG, and TD-INT than both Mahomes and Watson, which is impressive. The assumption is Lawrence goes #1, but looking at the raw numbers, he has the worst comp% of the group, lowest average, and is in the middle of the pack for TD-INT. His biggest factor is his size at 6'6" and experience. I will need to watch some tape on these guys but I would not be disappointed if we got any of them. I feel like at worst you are looking at a decent NFL starter.

Trevor Lawrence - 69.2% Comp, 20-3 TD-INT, 9.7 AVG, 2431 yards - 38 G, 6'6"
Justin Fields - 78.1% Comp, 15-3 TD-INT, 10.3 AVG, 1407 yards - 31 G, 6'3"
Mac Jones - 75.7% Comp, 27-3 TD-INT, 12.2 AVG, 3113 yards - 26 G, 6'3"
Kyle Trask - 71.4% Comp, 38-3 TD-INT, 10.1 AVG, 3243 yards - 24 G, 6'5"
Zach Wilson - 73.0% Comp, 27-3 TD-INT, 11.1 AVG, 2964 yards - 28 G, 6'3"

Patrick Mahomes - 65.7%, 41-10 TD-INT, 8.5 AVG, 5052 yards - 32 G, 6'3"
Deshaun Watson - 67.4%, 41-17 TD-INT, 7.9 AVG, 4593 yards - 38 G , 6'3"

Lawrence is not in range, unless Pace trades up again (I'll kill him).

I'd love Jones or Trask. 

Just say no to Fields.

[adam]

11 hours ago, jason said:

Lawrence is not in range, unless Pace trades up again (I'll kill him).

I'd love Jones or Trask. 

Just say no to Fields.

I do not want Fields, he feels like he will be a bust after seeing the team take the ball out of his hands to win the game. 

All the recent great young QB's were selected by a team that traded up (KC, HOU, BUF). So if the Bears are picking in the late teens to mid 20s, and want a QB like Jones or Trask, I assume they will have to give up their 2021 and 2022 firsts to move up 10+ slots to have a shot at one of them. If the trade is this and next year's ones, Im ok with it. 

[Stinger226]

I think Jones and Trask could be there at around 20. Dont know if they are worth that high a pick or not but will be in demand because so many teams need a QB. I have read some good things about J. T. Daniels and Jamie Newman( not my opinion) so maybe there is a few that could be a 2nd  round pick for us. There is potentially 10 teams that could take a QB in front of us so all of this maybe a wasted talking point. 

[Mongo3451]

3 hours ago, adam said:

I assume they will have to give up their 2021 and 2022 firsts to move up 10+ slots to have a shot at one of them. If the trade is this and next year's ones, Im ok with it. 

If they trade away next year's first to move up for a QB, I am done.  That's exactly the opposite of what they need to build this team right.  Could not disagree more...

[jason]

Some sites have Jones listed as a mid-round pick. Apparently the league's GMs aren't sold on him as NFL-capable. I think once the QBs start going off the board, there will be a QB frenzy and the Bears will have trade partners ready to leap.

I'm hoping for a trade down into the end of the first round, pick up an extra 2nd and an extra 3rd, and then a Mac Jones selection at the end of the first just to be sure.

Round 1 Pick 30 (BUF): Mac Jones, QB, Alabama (B+)
Round 2 Pick 20: Rashawn Slater, OG/OT, Northwestern (A)
Round 2 Pick 30 (BUF): Sage Surratt, WR, Wake Forest (A)
Round 3 Pick 19: Liam Eichenberg, OT, Notre Dame (A-)
Round 3 Pick 29 (BUF): Phidarian Mathis, DT, Alabama (B+)
Round 5 Pick 20: Zaven Collins, DE/OLB, Tulsa (A+)
Round 6 Pick 20: Michal Menet, C, Penn State (A-)
Round 7 Pick 4: Monty Rice, ILB/OLB, Georgia (A+)

[Alaskan Grizzly]

13 hours ago, jason said:

Some sites have Jones listed as a mid-round pick. Apparently the league's GMs aren't sold on him as NFL-capable.

Isn’t this how we ended up with Trubiksy and KC ended up with Mahomes?  The “experts” (aka GMs and draft experts) predicted Trubiksy would be a blue chip prospect and Mahomes a risky gun slinger prone to turnovers? Not that Jones is either of those, just sayin.  But as I’ve said before he’s coming from Alabama where if anyone is ready for the NFL, most coming from there are.  I’d like to see how he does in the CFL playoffs.  

 

[Mongo3451]

33 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Isn’t this how we ended up with Trubiksy and KC ended up with Mahomes?  The “experts” (aka GMs and draft experts) predicted Trubiksy would be a blue chip prospect and Mahomes a risky gun slinger prone to turnovers? Not that Jones is either of those, just sayin.  But as I’ve said before he’s coming from Alabama where if anyone is ready for the NFL, most coming from there are.  I’d like to see how he does in the CFL playoffs.  

 

I am historically leery of Alabama players due to the fact that nearly every one of them has a future NFL player beside them.  That much talent makes it that much easier to do your job.