Your 7-7 Chicago Bears!

[adam]

What a crazy roller-coaster season and game for that matter, perfect for 2020. It has come down to a 2-game season. The Bears need to win both and hope ARZ loses one of their remaining 3 games (winning right now). 

[Bears4Ever_34]

If they miss the playoffs, they'll look back at that DET game as the most costly loss of the season. Not sure the Cardinals lose another game. 

I also don't think GB will end up resting their starters, because I don't see them beating TEN next week.

[adam]

10 minutes ago, Bears4Ever_34 said:

If they miss the playoffs, they'll look back at that DET game as the most costly loss of the season. Not sure the Cardinals lose another game. 

I also don't think GB will end up resting their starters, because I don't see them beating TEN next week.

That was definitely the most costly loss, but it was almost payback for Week 1 when the roles were reversed. 

They have to play SF and at LAR. They just lost to LAR at home by 10 and it looks like LAR will still be fighting for the Division title and home playoff game in Week 17. So we will see. 

[jason]

Even if they win out, they're 9-7, a likely first round exit, and a mediocre draft pick. 

This is a discussion that goes back on this board to the Lovie years. Some say winning breeds the confidence to continue winning. Well, sometimes that's true, but with this team it doesn't hold the pattern. How many years can that argument be made? Winning those meaningless, end of year games don't help the team build for the future. It just provides a temporary confidence, and a middle-of-the-round pick that doesn't help as much when team-building if it's the only one you have. The only time the odds are in a team's favor with a mid-teen pick are when a trade down happens (what should have happened instead of picking Trubisky).

[adam]

10 minutes ago, jason said:

Even if they win out, they're 9-7, a likely first round exit, and a mediocre draft pick. 

This is a discussion that goes back on this board to the Lovie years. Some say winning breeds the confidence to continue winning. Well, sometimes that's true, but with this team it doesn't hold the pattern. How many years can that argument be made? Winning those meaningless, end of year games don't help the team build for the future. It just provides a temporary confidence, and a middle-of-the-round pick that doesn't help as much when team-building if it's the only one you have. The only time the odds are in a team's favor with a mid-teen pick are when a trade down happens (what should have happened instead of picking Trubisky).

Right now the team is pretty much locked into a pick between 15-20. If the QB you want is not there, and there is not an OT there, you trade back and gain back some draft capital. It would be nice to trade back into the late 1st and pick up an extra 2nd round pick. You still get the 5th year option and an extra 2nd rounder.

The order of the wins and losses change so much of the narrative. If the Bears were 3-3 thru 6 (instead of 5-1), then went 4-4 in the next 8 to be 7-7 thru this week, I don't think anyone would be wanting them to lose. 

If they make the playoffs, they are guaranteed to play the #2 seed, which looks like it will be NO or SEA. TB also has a chance to slide up into that slot. The Bears beat TB, almost beat NO, and SEA's defense is terrible. The Bears would be underdogs in any of those games, but those are all winnable games. 

[Mongo3451]

1 hour ago, jason said:

Even if they win out, they're 9-7, a likely first round exit, and a mediocre draft pick. 

This is a discussion that goes back on this board to the Lovie years. Some say winning breeds the confidence to continue winning. Well, sometimes that's true, but with this team it doesn't hold the pattern. How many years can that argument be made? Winning those meaningless, end of year games don't help the team build for the future. It just provides a temporary confidence, and a middle-of-the-round pick that doesn't help as much when team-building if it's the only one you have. The only time the odds are in a team's favor with a mid-teen pick are when a trade down happens (what should have happened instead of picking Trubisky).

And this is main thing you and I have disagreed with over the last 15 years, lol.  We are soul brothers on OL,  but you play to win, especially if you can make the playoffs.  Give me a chip and a chair any day.  I truly don't see where drafting at a higher slot ever beats a winning culture.  Draft well and train them up.

[adam]

1 minute ago, Mongo3451 said:

And this is main thing you and I have disagreed with over the last 15 years, lol.  We are soul brothers on OL,  but you play to win, especially if you can make the playoffs.  Give me a chip and a chair any day.  I truly don't see where drafting at a higher slot ever beats a winning culture.  Draft well and train them up.

The Jets just won and in doing so gave the Jaguars Trevor Lawrence. SD and DAL had 3 wins two weeks ago and top 5 picks, and now both have 5 wins and are drafting 8th and 9th.

[McGowan]

53 minutes ago, adam said:

Right now the team is pretty much locked into a pick between 15-20. If the QB you want is not there, and there is not an OT there, you trade back and gain back some draft capital. It would be nice to trade back into the late 1st and pick up an extra 2nd round pick. You still get the 5th year option and an extra 2nd rounder.

The order of the wins and losses change so much of the narrative. If the Bears were 3-3 thru 6 (instead of 5-1), then went 4-4 in the next 8 to be 7-7 thru this week, I don't think anyone would be wanting them to lose. 

If they make the playoffs, they are guaranteed to play the #2 seed, which looks like it will be NO or SEA. TB also has a chance to slide up into that slot. The Bears beat TB, almost beat NO, and SEA's defense is terrible. The Bears would be underdogs in any of those games, but those are all winnable games. 

They're probably going to need someone to replace Robinson so if they can grab someone like Jaylen Waddle it wouldn't be a bad idea.

Regardless of what happens to end this season, Pace and Nagy's fate should already be sealed.  Just like Lovie and Angelo, Nagy and Pace are nothing more than Bumslayers. 

Imagine being a Jets fan right now.....you sit through that miserable season, thinking you're getting a generational QB prospect and then *poof* they pull a game out of their arse and now they don't get Lawrence. 

[50england50]

Watched the Eagles v Cardinals yesterday. Thought we were going to move into the last wildcard. The Eagles had 2 dropped catches in the end zone of their penultimate drive and 2 Hail Mary chances. 
 

Now on to next weekend. Looks like it will need us to beat the Packers and the Rams to make the playoffs. Looks like it’s a game that the Rams need to win. 

[McGowan]

Anyway, I think we saw yesterday that it's the same old Mitch and the only question is if they can afford anything better without using draft capital. 

Also, I can't believe how much the defense has taken a shit over the last 6 weeks or so. 

[Mongo3451]

8 minutes ago, McGowan said:

Anyway, I think we saw yesterday that it's the same old Mitch and the only question is if they can afford anything better without using draft capital. 

Also, I can't believe how much the defense has taken a shit over the last 6 weeks or so. 

Same old Mitch?  Winning Mitch?  33 points a game Mitch?  98 QB rating Mitch?  Playoff contention Mitch?  How bout new Mitch?

Agreed on D.

[adam]

13 minutes ago, McGowan said:

Anyway, I think we saw yesterday that it's the same old Mitch and the only question is if they can afford anything better without using draft capital. 

Also, I can't believe how much the defense has taken a shit over the last 6 weeks or so. 

You can absorb an INT if your offense is putting up 30+. Was it a bad throw yes, should he have ran or thrown in away, yes, but his bad throw pct is way down over the last 3 weeks. 

I don't know if you have watched any other teams, but there are bad INTs thrown each week by some great QBs. 

To me it was as bad of a throw as it was a play design. 5 receivers all running into the end zone, no outlet, and defenders close enough to contest balls thrown to other receivers. Holtz's defender made the interception in front of ARob. ARob was also interferred with and changed his momentum towards the ball.

I didn't like the play calling and didn't like the throw, but it happens to all QBs.

The defense is another story. It is clear that Jackson is playing not to get hurt. He is just running around as an 11th player on the field, but is not doing anything. On the two large receptions by the TEs, him and Fuller avoided contact and allowed 10-15 extra yards on the receptions. That has to change. Something is clearly going on there with them. Outside of the mixup on the TD to Thielen, Vildor and Shelley played decent. Look at Thielen's numbers. 

[adam]

5 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Same old Mitch?  Winning Mitch?  33 points a game Mitch?  98 QB rating Mitch?  Playoff contention Mitch?  How bout new Mitch?

Agreed on D.

Yeah, you can go back to any 3 game stretch of his career and tell something is different. To me he is being more decisive with his throws, but they are all not first read, he is making quicker decisions and not just starring down one receiver. I thought he had two bad passes all game, and for the most part made the right decision with the ball. He also had his highest carries in a game this season with 8 and was only sacked once. 

[Mongo3451]

14 minutes ago, adam said:

Yeah, you can go back to any 3 game stretch of his career and tell something is different. To me he is being more decisive with his throws, but they are all not first read, he is making quicker decisions and not just starring down one receiver. I thought he had two bad passes all game, and for the most part made the right decision with the ball. He also had his highest carries in a game this season with 8 and was only sacked once. 

Mitch made that terrible throw in the endzone and it wasn't even a terrible decision.  He underthrew the ball by 5 feet.  Bolts couldn't even get back to it to prevent the pick.  On the other hand, Kyler Murray gets praised for his terrible, ill advised, throw in the endzone, where Fitzgerald makes a fantastic catch.  I'm tired of the Mitch bashing.  He's averaged 31 f'n points a game.  Before that, we were begging for a score.

 

[McGowan]

10 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Mitch made that terrible throw in the endzone and it wasn't even a terrible decision.  He underthrew the ball by 5 feet.  Bolts couldn't even get back to it to prevent the pick.  On the other hand, Kyler Murray gets praised for his terrible, ill advised, throw in the endzone, where Fitzgerald makes a fantastic catch.  I'm tired of the Mitch bashing.  He's averaged 31 f'n points a game.  Before that, we were begging for a score.

 

He's still a 1 read QB and if the one read isn't there he takes off and runs. Lazor is just putting him in the best position to succeed within his limitations, which is what should be expected. 

[Mongo3451]

44 minutes ago, McGowan said:

He's still a 1 read QB and if the one read isn't there he takes off and runs. Lazor is just putting him in the best position to succeed within his limitations, which is what should be expected. 

He actually had multiple reads a few times yesterday.  Those things come with time and confidence.  The OL has been hot garbage.  Bill Lazor has made all the difference in the world.  They are finally tailoring the gameplan to the skill set of the team.  Nagy's ego would not allow the round peg to go in the round hole.

[McGowan]

2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

He actually had multiple reads a few times yesterday.  Those things come with time and confidence.  The OL has been hot garbage.  Bill Lazor has made all the difference in the world.  They are finally tailoring the gameplan to the skill set of the team.  Nagy's ego would not allow the round peg to go in the round hole.

Yeah, but a few times isn't most plays, which is what a good QB is supposed to do. 

[Mongo3451]

6 minutes ago, McGowan said:

Yeah, but a few times isn't most plays, which is what a good QB is supposed to do. 

Which of his 6 incompletions do you want to criticize besides the pick?  He has been a top 10 quarterback since he returned.  What else do you want?  On top of that, how much better is Montgomery and the OL?

[McGowan]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

Which of his 6 incompletions do you want to criticize besides the pick?  He has been a top 10 quarterback since he returned.  What else do you want?  On top of that, how much better is Montgomery and the OL?

I have to see it against a decent defense. They've been playing crap defenses and it could just be a product of that. I want to see him do it against GB in 2 weeks and then I might be willing to give him a bit more slack. He also threw another bad pass in the game that Harrison Smith dropped, otherwise he'd have had 2 picks. You can't take points off the board like he did. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

4 hours ago, McGowan said:

He's still a 1 read QB and if the one read isn't there he takes off and runs. Lazor is just putting him in the best position to succeed within his limitations, which is what should be expected. 

I would agree that he’s still not at the Offense 200 level yet but is doing much better at the 100 level (maybe even 150) and for whatever reason Lazor seems to have figured out what works best.  Most of what I saw yesterday was Mitch rollout to his strong side, look for the two or three receivers in his direct sight path (short, medium and long) or handoff to Montgomery and repeat.  There were a few plays in there where he stood in the pocket (like the INT in the end zone) but overall he looks a heck of a lot more confident than he ever has.  Before, like in 2018, there were games he looked confident (like the 6 TD effort against TB) but other times he mightily struggled.  Since he’s come off the bench this year and outside of that GB game, he’s looked like a totally different QB.  
 

The oline has looked like an oline.  Some of the ‘up the gut’ runs yesterday were beautifully blocked.  Where many times in the last several games Monty would hit a wall of defenders and maybe make 2-3 yards.  Montgomery also has changed his running to more single step ‘plant and go’ running AND added some edge running.  Not something we’ve seen him do a lot before.  He has the speed to make those wide turns, we need to see more of that . 
 

They need to find him a complimentary back that isn’t named Patterson.  As I said yesterday I love the guy but he’s too valuable on ST to keep using in the backfield.  If you want to use him on offense put him in the slot occasionally or out wide and let him catch passes.  As far as backs go right now the best backup options would be Nall and Pierce. 

[jason]

21 hours ago, adam said:

The Jets just won and in doing so gave the Jaguars Trevor Lawrence. SD and DAL had 3 wins two weeks ago and top 5 picks, and now both have 5 wins and are drafting 8th and 9th.

Bingo.

[jason]

21 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

And this is main thing you and I have disagreed with over the last 15 years, lol.  We are soul brothers on OL,  but you play to win, especially if you can make the playoffs.  Give me a chip and a chair any day.  I truly don't see where drafting at a higher slot ever beats a winning culture.  Draft well and train them up.

I'm a numbers guy. Over the course of a decade plus on this board, there was an analysis I can never find that proves higher picks equal better players by percentage. It was exhaustive and done by position. Sure, you can find Brady late, but the odds are not as good. That's kind of my entire point. In order to have those studs, the odds are extremely better if the pick is higher. 

I'd agree with you if the Bears had a winning culture, but they don't. If we were on the Patriots board I'd be singing the same song you are. But these are the Bears, and constantly getting a pick in the middle of the round is not as good as unless your GM/HC/Front Office has a great track record of drafting studs, which the Bears obviously don't. 

For the record, I understand fighting for a playoff spot. I can't blame the team for doing that, obviously. I just hate the meaningless wins. If there is no chance at the playoffs, put in the JV and see what you have on the roster.

[Bertva]

9 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

Same old Mitch?  Winning Mitch?  33 points a game Mitch?  98 QB rating Mitch?  Playoff contention Mitch?  How bout new Mitch?

Agreed on D.

If the Bears do not start on resigning him now and he continues to play well.  The price is only going to go up.  

[adam]

39 minutes ago, Bertva said:

If the Bears do not start on resigning him now and he continues to play well.  The price is only going to go up.  

If you are Trubisky, there is no way you are signing a deal now unless you think COVID is going to kill your market. The best option may be a 1-yr deal somewhere. 

[BearFan PHX]

43 minutes ago, Bertva said:

If the Bears do not start on resigning him now and he continues to play well.  The price is only going to go up.  

Let him go, he's performed semi good in front of two horrible defenses, and one mediocre one. He also threw into triple coverage. No one caught it, so we forgot it. Had the DB caught it, you'd be thinking about the interception.

Trubisky is bad. I understand the last few weeks he's looked better than the garbage we saw before. That is no baseline though. He is not GOOD.