Why I don't want Trubisky going forward.

[Bill]

With the biggest game of his career.   Four years into his NFL career. .Two two or three years with all of his coaches and players.  And this is the passing game plan they go with.

 

 

Five pass plays over ten yards and only one completion.  One interception.  The coaching staff does not have more faith in him than that game plan was the best he could handle..

[Bill]

Two more years.  I don't want two more weeks.

[BearFan PHX]

well put. Playing Ok against a few horrible defenses does not an NFL starter make.

[50england50]

Trubisky can only pass to the plays that have been called and this may be because the Packers secondary is better the our wide receiver group. I don’t know why double moves weren’t used to stop the DB’s sitting on routes. 

The short routes may also be down to the coaches assessing that our OL isn’t able to pass protect for a route that takes time to develop. 

On the longer passes is it possible to redo this chart to show if the receiver was open, had not caught a ball that was catchable and if it was a tight window or good separation had been gained. 

[Mongo3451]

6 hours ago, 50england50 said:

On the longer passes is it possible to redo this chart to show if the receiver was open, had not caught a ball that was catchable and if it was a tight window or good separation had been gained. 

Good question.  I would attempt to answer it if I had coaches film.  I would even ask our they even sent out deep routes.  That ten yard window looked packed all game.

[adam]

GB played Cover-3 a ton taking away most throws between 10-20 yards by having 3 DBs in that area in addition to the DBs playing man. They forced all throws to go underneath or be contested between 10-20 yards.  If you notice that any throws over 10 yards probably had 2 or more DBs in close proximity. The game plan did not take advantage of this defensive scheme. Cover-3 is easy to beat and exploit, yet Nagy/Lazor didn't attack it. They were very passive. The 4th Down rollout was a perfect example where they had only one option. Trubisky's biggest issue is thinking on the fly. He just throws the ball where it is called regardless of the defense. He has to be able to see that the play is not there and move to other reads. He just throws it. That is frustrating, especially when someone like Josh Allen can improve by changing his mechanics in the offseason. 

Trubisky ended the year with a higher QBR than Roethlisberger, Goff, Burrow, Dalton, Minshew, Tua, Wentz, Lock, Newton, Dalton, and Foles. His last 4 games QBR: 85.9, 81.9, 63.3, and 63.6. That run matches his best stretch of any in his career. He has only had one other 4 game stretch with a QBR of 60 or higher (in 2018 TB, MIA, NE, and NYJ, team went 2-2 in those games).

Trubisky also had his highest career QB Rating at 93.5, a 2:1 TD:INT Ratio and his highest completion pct at 67%. 

 

[adam]

I just thought about this, what the hell happened to the "Adjustor"? Remember when Nagy said Burton was the Adjustor and everything keyed off him on the offense? Who is the adjustor in this offense? No one really plays that role which makes the offense feel very clunky. 

I think when you add Trubisky to a clunky offense, you get exactly what we see every week. So if Nagy comes back, I don't think Trubisky will be back. Cap will play a role in this decision too.

[Bill]

2 hours ago, adam said:

I just thought about this, what the hell happened to the "Adjustor"? Remember when Nagy said Burton was the Adjustor and everything keyed off him on the offense? Who is the adjustor in this offense? No one really plays that role which makes the offense feel very clunky. 

I think when you add Trubisky to a clunky offense, you get exactly what we see every week. So if Nagy comes back, I don't think Trubisky will be back. Cap will play a role in this decision too.

So if I understand correctly, the Packer defense made Trubisky play like a real NFL QB should be able to.  The coaches installed a limited game plan that they knew he could execute.  He's had the best run the last four games of his career and in the GB game and still could only put up one touchdown and 16 total points.  He has commented that they need to open up the offense against the Saints.  A better defense that will most likely do the same thing.  Make him play like a playoff quarterback should.  I guess we will see how that turns out.  I just don't see him succeeding and if not I hope they pull him as fast as they did week three.   Of course, if they do, there is no chance in hell he would return.

 

I hope he comes out and plays like he did against TB in 2018 and shuts me up and shows how ignorant I am about football.

[jason]

On 1/6/2021 at 6:40 PM, Bill said:

With the biggest game of his career.   Four years into his NFL career. .Two two or three years with all of his coaches and players.  And this is the passing game plan they go with.

 

 

Five pass plays over ten yards and only one completion.  One interception.  The coaching staff does not have more faith in him than that game plan was the best he could handle..

Great post. I quoted you because that graphic needs to be seen multiple times.

[McGowan]

 

[jason]

1 hour ago, McGowan said:

 

Two supplemental charts from that article:

 

[adam]

A lot of QBs struggle with the deep ball.

 

 

[adam]

What if Trubisky just needed glasses or Lasik? That's why he can't see all those defenders past 10-15 yards. 

[adam]

Mooney's route tree vs GB:

 

[adam]

Robinson's, see the trend, all the routes are short, so Trubisky's percentage for deep balls is going to be dependent on a very small sample size:

 

[BearFan PHX]

6 hours ago, adam said:

Robinson's, see the trend, all the routes are short, so Trubisky's percentage for deep balls is going to be dependent on a very small sample size:

Sure, but Nagy is on the record as saying he wants a lot of deep shots, so this is a chicken egg kind of thing. Is it a matter of Mitch not being given the opportunity to throw deep and that's why the sample size is too small through no fault of his own? or is it that the coaching staff knows he cant throw deep so they dont call those plays much anymore? We know the defenses are cheating up so its not like the opponent's game plan is taking that away.

Or maybe this is just Charles Leno killing everything because we know Mitch wont have time for a 7 step drop to get to those deep routes anyway.

Either way, I'm coming around to seeing that that's Pace's fault. Trubisky AND Leno. And Nagy.

[adam]

20 hours ago, BearFan NYC said:

Sure, but Nagy is on the record as saying he wants a lot of deep shots, so this is a chicken egg kind of thing. Is it a matter of Mitch not being given the opportunity to throw deep and that's why the sample size is too small through no fault of his own? or is it that the coaching staff knows he cant throw deep so they dont call those plays much anymore? We know the defenses are cheating up so its not like the opponent's game plan is taking that away.

Or maybe this is just Charles Leno killing everything because we know Mitch wont have time for a 7 step drop to get to those deep routes anyway.

Either way, I'm coming around to seeing that that's Pace's fault. Trubisky AND Leno. And Nagy.

You nailed it, it is all of them. Pace, Nagy, Trubisky, and the O-Line (main culprits of Massey, Leno, and Coward). In defense of Trubisky, how can he take a shot when the receivers aren't running any deep routes, or if they do and are bracketed with safeties over the top? Pace made the biggest and initial error drafting Trubisky, then hiring Nagy who can't develop an offense with the players he has. It has been square peg and round hole since. Pagano is the same way. The DBs don't play 12 yards off a receiver on a 3rd and 7 because they want to. That is the scheme. 

We saw a few flashes of the offense working with Foles and Trubisky. I wonder if we will see Foles if Trubisky starts off bad?

[Lucky Luciano]

4 minutes ago, adam said:

Pagano is the same way. The DBs don't play 12 yards off a receiver on a 3rd and 7 because they want to. That is the scheme.

this  scheme is what we have seen in chicago for nearly two decades. it is the same ilk as we saw from lovie smith. our db's play deep zones or backpedal at the snap beyond the markers. it is a given 5-10 yard gain with consistency that favre and rogers have exploited to ad nauseam.

we have made this easy for any opposing qb's to move the ball down the field and into the redzone. the REASON we had done so well at forcing field goals rather than td's is because by the time they are backed up in the redzone they CAN'T back up or backpedal any more because they would be out of the endzone. thus no mega cushion for receivers or rb's running routes.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, adam said:

We saw a few flashes of the offense working with Foles and Trubisky. I wonder if we will see Foles if Trubisky starts off bad?

I have a co-worker who has said a few times that he thinks Foles is much better without a lot of preparation.  You saw him play well against Atlanta when he took over there.  And somehow did well filling in for Wentz back in Philly.  Although there he maintained his good play all the way to the Super Bowl.  Maybe there’s something to it?  Maybe you’re right?  What would they have to lose if Trubisky can’t put it together today  and decide to play Foles?  
 

As an aside.  How about that Wash QB Heinikie?  Pretty impressive performance yesterday.  

[madlithuanian]

22 hours ago, Lucky Luciano said:

this  scheme is what we have seen in chicago for nearly two decades. it is the same ilk as we saw from lovie smith. our db's play deep zones or backpedal at the snap beyond the markers. it is a given 5-10 yard gain with consistency that favre and rogers have exploited to ad nauseam.

we have made this easy for any opposing qb's to move the ball down the field and into the redzone. the REASON we had done so well at forcing field goals rather than td's is because by the time they are backed up in the redzone they CAN'T back up or backpedal any more because they would be out of the endzone. thus no mega cushion for receivers or rb's running routes.

100%!!!!!!!!  I could not agree more.  They literally seem to be playing "prevent".  Then when in the red zone, pure physics doesn't allow them to do it anymore.

[BearFan2000]

39 minutes ago, madlithuanian said:

100%!!!!!!!!  I could not agree more.  They literally seem to be playing "prevent".  Then when in the red zone, pure physics doesn't allow them to do it anymore.

Second that.  Hard to state it any clearer.  Bears D is given too much credit for being good in the red zone while getting torched between the 20's but it absolutely has in large part to do with the shrinking field.  Further evidence is when we give up a red zone TD it often looks stupid easy.  This is why it's hard to have any confidence in the D to come up with stops despite the supposed talent.  I feel like Lovie's D was better than this crap but that might be recency bias.  At the end of the day when your D relies on bend but don't break sooner or later it will break and get ugly.  Coupled with our offense a one possession deficit feels insurmountable.  

[madlithuanian]

3 hours ago, BearFan2000 said:

Second that.  Hard to state it any clearer.  Bears D is given too much credit for being good in the red zone while getting torched between the 20's but it absolutely has in large part to do with the shrinking field.  Further evidence is when we give up a red zone TD it often looks stupid easy.  This is why it's hard to have any confidence in the D to come up with stops despite the supposed talent.  I feel like Lovie's D was better than this crap but that might be recency bias.  At the end of the day when your D relies on bend but don't break sooner or later it will break and get ugly.  Coupled with our offense a one possession deficit feels insurmountable.  

Yup.  Fangio didn't send the house all the time, but nor did he have his DB's play 10-15 yards off the LOS.  Makes a huge difference.  Smith's D under Rivera was incredible.  After that, just really really good.  Our D under Fangio got to that really really good mode and touched upon the incredible.  Pagano, mostly "C+" with a few instances of being very very good.

[Lucky Luciano]

21 hours ago, BearFan2000 said:

At the end of the day when your D relies on bend but don't break sooner or later it will break and get ugly.  Coupled with our offense a one possession deficit feels insurmountable.  

a key to this type of defense, bend but don' break, is riding time.

when an offense moves from one endzone to the other it takes a LOT more time and your defense is on the field for that. it wears them out much quicker during a game even when the time of possession is close. also what this bend don't break defense creates is your offense is sitting on the sidelines watching another team move down the field instead of out there scoring themselves. it limits your scoring opportunities. this is ESPECIALLY true when you do not have a high scoring offense.

add to that, any three and out by your offense throws the defense into the fire without time to rest sufficiently.

[Stinger226]

On 1/10/2021 at 2:03 PM, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I have a co-worker who has said a few times that he thinks Foles is much better without a lot of preparation.  You saw him play well against Atlanta when he took over there.  And somehow did well filling in for Wentz back in Philly.  Although there he maintained his good play all the way to the Super Bowl.  Maybe there’s something to it?  Maybe you’re right?  What would they have to lose if Trubisky can’t put it together today  and decide to play Foles?  
 

As an aside.  How about that Wash QB Heinikie?  Pretty impressive performance yesterday.  

He came thru our camp and we did not keep him. So much for noticing talent. One game does not make a QB but we have very little to work with now.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

7 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

He came thru our camp and we did not keep him. So much for noticing talent. One game does not make a QB but we have very little to work with now.

True...