BearFan PHX Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 I dunno if this is just trying to gain leverage, or he means it, but apparently Watson is following Chicago weather forecasters on twitter LOL If Nagy and Pace get one more year, can you imagine them trading the future to get this guy to prove that Nagy was good and it was Trubisky that was the problem? And do you think that would work? To me it sounds like it would just cost us the chance to get more OL, and other players, and end in the same result. https://heavy.com/sports/chicago-bears/fans-react-deshaun-watson-twitter-likes/?fbclid=IwAR3-0IRwA96mUuRlkMRirbuV9cX8jzhAXzuXgGpO2rfHfXrGTPX1Oez5Lyg Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jason Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 2 hours ago, BearFan NYC said: I dunno if this is just trying to gain leverage, or he means it, but apparently Watson is following Chicago weather forecasters on twitter LOL If Nagy and Pace get one more year, can you imagine them trading the future to get this guy to prove that Nagy was good and it was Trubisky that was the problem? And do you think that would work? To me it sounds like it would just cost us the chance to get more OL, and other players, and end in the same result. https://heavy.com/sports/chicago-bears/fans-react-deshaun-watson-twitter-likes/?fbclid=IwAR3-0IRwA96mUuRlkMRirbuV9cX8jzhAXzuXgGpO2rfHfXrGTPX1Oez5Lyg I think he's just posturing. Probably pissed about the DHop thing. And I think you're right about the draft picks. He'd end up running a lot more in Chicago than he has in Houston. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan2000 Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 Watson s disgruntled. Bringing him here even if he wanted to come. Would cost us too much and I feel we’d be no better off other than an upgrade at QB. It would limit what we can do elsewhere on the team.  The irony here is if it were to happen we’d end up with a QB we could have had on draft day and we would have mortgaged the future twice to do so. High price for one mistake. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 9, 2021 Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 15 minutes ago, BearFan2000 said: Watson s disgruntled. Bringing him here even if he wanted to come. Would cost us too much and I feel we’d be no better off other than an upgrade at QB. It would limit what we can do elsewhere on the team.  The irony here is if it were to happen we’d end up with a QB we could have had on draft day and we would have mortgaged the future twice to do so. High price for one mistake. What's funny is Houston is basically in the situation we would be in if we acquired him. They have an aging defense and no early draft picks due to some bad trades. So if the Bears somehow pulled off a trade, they would have to give up so much that we would look just like Houston does now, with Watson, and not much else. The crazy part is even with a new GM and HC, they are still years away from competing. They have TEN and IND in their division who are going to be good for the foreseeable future AND Jacksonville, who will have the #1 pick and a ton of draft capital to reset. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted January 9, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 9, 2021 I said to fire Nagy around week 12 last year, give Mitch a different look and if he couldnt make it, then move on and draft a QB this year. I said if we didnt, wed lose not only this one year, but the defense would regress. I honestly think nothing positive that ends in a Super Bowl can begin until Nagy is gone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 So the lead teams look to be MIA and NYJ. SF, CHI, CAR, IND, DEN, WAS and NE were other teams mentioned as realistic candidates. My take is there is no way Houston is trading within their division, so IND is out. If they trade him within the conference, there is a chance they would have to face him every year (depending on schedules). I can't see them doing this and risking that every year for the next 15 years. Also, for a team like MIA, if they did trade with them, all they would be doing is getting their 1st rounder back that they traded for Tunsil, so it would be Watson for Tunsil and a first (in this year's draft), which would look even worse. So that leaves the NFC teams of SF, CHI, CAR, and WAS. So let's look at this year's draft capital, cap space, and highest-paid QBs: Best draft capital this year: CAR - #8, #39, $13M Cap, Bridgewater $21M AAV Easiest out for QB contract: SF - #12, #43, $22M Cap, Garoppolo $27.5M AAV Cap space availability: WAS - #19, #51, $43M Cap, Smith $23.5M AAV Cheapest starting QB to trade: CHI - #20, #52, $0 Cap, Foles $8M AAV Right now the Texans are $18M over the current cap. That may grow to more than that when the official cap comes out. It gets even worse in 2022 as the Texans have the lowest cap space of any team in 2022 right now. That's when Watson's deal kicks in and his cap hit balloons to $40M. So they have to be thinking about that as part of the equation. Watson's cap hit for 2021 is only $15.9M, so it's hard for me to believe they would go deeper in the hole cap-wise to move him. So they would unlikely trade for Bridgewater, Garoppolo, or Smith. On the flip side, Carolina can't absorb Bridgewater's dead money if they decided to trade for Watson and cut Bridgewater. The 49ers and Redskins could with their QBs. The Texans could take Foles and save $8M in cap space with a serviceable QB. To me, there is not much difference between those 3, Smith was the worst of the 3 and technically Garoppolo got outplayed by Nick Mullens, and with the added cap hit, Foles is actually the best deal and lowest risk. So I think it will come down to SF, WAS, and CHI as the landing spot if the Texans decide to move on from Watson. I still think he stays but you never know anymore.  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connorbear Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 2 hours ago, adam said: So the lead teams look to be MIA and NYJ. SF, CHI, CAR, IND, DEN, WAS and NE were other teams mentioned as realistic candidates. My take is there is no way Houston is trading within their division, so IND is out. If they trade him within the conference, there is a chance they would have to face him every year (depending on schedules). I can't see them doing this and risking that every year for the next 15 years. Also, for a team like MIA, if they did trade with them, all they would be doing is getting their 1st rounder back that they traded for Tunsil, so it would be Watson for Tunsil and a first (in this year's draft), which would look even worse. So that leaves the NFC teams of SF, CHI, CAR, and WAS. So let's look at this year's draft capital, cap space, and highest-paid QBs: Best draft capital this year: CAR - #8, #39, $13M Cap, Bridgewater $21M AAV Easiest out for QB contract: SF - #12, #43, $22M Cap, Garoppolo $27.5M AAV Cap space availability: WAS - #19, #51, $43M Cap, Smith $23.5M AAV Cheapest starting QB to trade: CHI - #20, #52, $0 Cap, Foles $8M AAV Right now the Texans are $18M over the current cap. That may grow to more than that when the official cap comes out. It gets even worse in 2022 as the Texans have the lowest cap space of any team in 2022 right now. That's when Watson's deal kicks in and his cap hit balloons to $40M. So they have to be thinking about that as part of the equation. Watson's cap hit for 2021 is only $15.9M, so it's hard for me to believe they would go deeper in the hole cap-wise to move him. So they would unlikely trade for Bridgewater, Garoppolo, or Smith. On the flip side, Carolina can't absorb Bridgewater's dead money if they decided to trade for Watson and cut Bridgewater. The 49ers and Redskins could with their QBs. The Texans could take Foles and save $8M in cap space with a serviceable QB. To me, there is not much difference between those 3, Smith was the worst of the 3 and technically Garoppolo got outplayed by Nick Mullens, and with the added cap hit, Foles is actually the best deal and lowest risk. So I think it will come down to SF, WAS, and CHI as the landing spot if the Texans decide to move on from Watson. I still think he stays but you never know anymore.  If Carolina wants him, they will figure out the cap space for this year. Just a thought:  become part of a 3-way trade for Watson - Chicago trades 2020 2nd to Carolina for Bridgewater, Carolina trades multiple picks including Chicago's 2nd to Houston for Watson. A second this year has the value of a first next year and Carolina get's to move forward with Watson. I simply don't think we have enough to get him. I see Bridgewater as a above average QB that can fill the role while we continue to search for a top-tier QB. Peace   Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fudgeripple2000 Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Also, Watson has a not trade clause. So he can have a list of where he would want to go. If Houston let him go they would seem to be in a rebuild mode. In that sense they would clean some house and get rid of JJ as well. In a rebuild a place holder quarterback might be what houston would look for. Foles fits that mold. Bridgewater has more years on his contract and Garrapolo still makes a healthy amount. Right now the NFC west is a buzz saw. The NFC north not so much. I would be surprised if Watson left and even more if he wanted chicago. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 Watson is too expensive. People are saying three firsts to get him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Connorbear Posted January 18, 2021 Report Share Posted January 18, 2021 4 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said: Watson is too expensive. People are saying three firsts to get him. It's going to cost more than 3 first-round picks to get him. Peace Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bertva Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 Watson traded to the Phins? 2021 NFL Mock Draft: Texans trade Deshaun Watson to Dolphins and take Zach Wilson, Saints go receiver - CBSSports.com Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alaskan Grizzly Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 13 hours ago, Bertva said: Watson traded to the Phins? 2021 NFL Mock Draft: Texans trade Deshaun Watson to Dolphins and take Zach Wilson, Saints go receiver - CBSSports.com I think that’s part of the mock draft scenario involving him going to Miami and Tua to Houston.  Although Watson did say/tweet something about wanting to leave Houston and play for Miami.  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 21 hours ago, Mongo3451 said: Watson is too expensive. People are saying three firsts to get him. So you wouldn't trade Gabe Carimi, Shea McClellin, and Kyle Long for Watson? How about Kevin White, Leonard Floyd, and Mitch Trubisky? Also, if you are a good team that makes the playoffs, you would be consistently drafting in the 20s. The #1 pick is worth 3000, the #24 pick is worth 720, so it would take 4x #24's to get the #1 pick. So if you view Watson as a #1 pick value, giving up 3 firsts would be worth it. The 16th pick is worth 1000, so you would have to expect to be drafting in the top 15 to lose out on that trade. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted January 19, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 7 minutes ago, adam said: So you wouldn't trade Gabe Carimi, Shea McClellin, and Kyle Long for Watson? How about Kevin White, Leonard Floyd, and Mitch Trubisky? Also, if you are a good team that makes the playoffs, you would be consistently drafting in the 20s. The #1 pick is worth 3000, the #24 pick is worth 720, so it would take 4x #24's to get the #1 pick. So if you view Watson as a #1 pick value, giving up 3 firsts would be worth it. The 16th pick is worth 1000, so you would have to expect to be drafting in the top 15 to lose out on that trade. I think to make your analogy work, you have to look at the average player taken at whatever position in the first round, or maybe a great player, and average one and a miss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 9 minutes ago, BearFan NYC said: I think to make your analogy work, you have to look at the average player taken at whatever position in the first round, or maybe a great player, and average one and a miss. That's fair, here are the last 3 years of pick 15 and pick 16: #15 Jerry Jeudy, Dwayne Haskins, Kolton Miller #16 AJ Terrell, Brian Burns, Tremaine Edmunds You can't get more average than the two middle picks of the first round over the last 3 years. Again, would you trade those packages for Watson? The answer is hell yeah every time. If you are picking outside of the top 12, the odds of you hitting on a star is low enough to justify the trade for someone of Watson's caliber. As long as we didn't trade the house and only needed to address OL and WR in the draft (after trading for him), we would be an immediate contender. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 19, 2021 Report Share Posted January 19, 2021 Also, you would have to expect the Bears would be an attractive destination for a free agent if we had Watson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 Just heard Louis Riddick on ESPN Chicago. He said Nagy is dying to get Watson. He knows first hand that Nagy liked Watson more than Mitch. Said Nagy loves, loves, loves Watson. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jason Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 On 1/19/2021 at 11:14 AM, adam said: So you wouldn't trade Gabe Carimi, Shea McClellin, and Kyle Long for Watson? How about Kevin White, Leonard Floyd, and Mitch Trubisky? Also, if you are a good team that makes the playoffs, you would be consistently drafting in the 20s. The #1 pick is worth 3000, the #24 pick is worth 720, so it would take 4x #24's to get the #1 pick. So if you view Watson as a #1 pick value, giving up 3 firsts would be worth it. The 16th pick is worth 1000, so you would have to expect to be drafting in the top 15 to lose out on that trade. I think the mathematical part of this is overpowering the common sense of it. Sure, the math of 720+720+720 is less than 3000, and the guy worth 3000 in this case has incredible talent, but this is a team game. If we were to take Gabe Carimi, Shea McClellin, and Kyle Long and assign them a value, it wouldn't be 720 each their first year. Carimi was easily a 1000ish (mid-1st) guy his first year before the freak knee injury. Shea sucked, and 90% of this board called it when he was drafted, but he was still a starter for a few years. Let's call him 500, like a 2nd round pick like he should have been. Finally, Long was all-rookie, 3 time pro bowler, and a monster his first three years. You have to slot him like an early first rounder. Let's say 1500. That would be the more realistic math, and a solid start to a team. A first rounder with immense talent can fail, however, if the surrounding talent is so subpar that the talented guy doesn't have the freedom to display said talent. In other words, Jay Cutler being traded to Chicago. Cutler got destroyed his first two years. Absolutely planted over and over again. Led the league in being sacked. Then he was gun-shy, and never the same guy again. Meanwhile, the Bears used guys like Devin Aromashodu, Rashweed Davis, Dane Sanzenbacher, and Roy Williams when they realized Johnny Knox, Devin Hester, and Earl Bennet weren't #1 WRs. Additionally, they built an OL of guys like Frank Omiyale, JMarcus Webb, and Lance Louis, worth about 50 points combined, to protect the guy worth several thousand in Draft Trade Value. If getting Watson means giving up multiple first rounders, which it appears it will, then it's a bad move for a franchise that wants to win. Great for tickets, but bad for wins. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DABEARSDABOMB Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 2 hours ago, Mongo3451 said: Just heard Louis Riddick on ESPN Chicago. He said Nagy is dying to get Watson. He knows first hand that Nagy liked Watson more than Mitch. Said Nagy loves, loves, loves Watson. Franchise Arob - trade him for a 2nd rounder (I don't know if that is doable). Trade Mack for a 1st or 2 2nd rounders. At that point - I think you might have enough capital to make some moves - but only way I can see Bears pulling off is if Watson has a really short list of teams and is pretty much demanding a trade to the Bears. I don't really know why he would do that - knowing you might have another new coaching staff in a year. If Nagy and Watson went back and had worked well together at some point - I could see it happen. I just don't see Watson to Chicago - although I do see Nagy wanting him and I see Pace and his aggressive ways also being enamored with this chance.  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted January 21, 2021 Report Share Posted January 21, 2021 58 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said: If Nagy and Watson went back and had worked well together at some point - I could see it happen. I just don't see Watson to Chicago - although I do see Nagy wanting him and I see Pace and his aggressive ways also being enamored with this chance.  I think he's too expensive, but who knows. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan2000 Posted January 22, 2021 Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 18 hours ago, jason said: I think the mathematical part of this is overpowering the common sense of it. Sure, the math of 720+720+720 is less than 3000, and the guy worth 3000 in this case has incredible talent, but this is a team game. If we were to take Gabe Carimi, Shea McClellin, and Kyle Long and assign them a value, it wouldn't be 720 each their first year. Carimi was easily a 1000ish (mid-1st) guy his first year before the freak knee injury. Shea sucked, and 90% of this board called it when he was drafted, but he was still a starter for a few years. Let's call him 500, like a 2nd round pick like he should have been. Finally, Long was all-rookie, 3 time pro bowler, and a monster his first three years. You have to slot him like an early first rounder. Let's say 1500. That would be the more realistic math, and a solid start to a team. A first rounder with immense talent can fail, however, if the surrounding talent is so subpar that the talented guy doesn't have the freedom to display said talent. In other words, Jay Cutler being traded to Chicago. Cutler got destroyed his first two years. Absolutely planted over and over again. Led the league in being sacked. Then he was gun-shy, and never the same guy again. Meanwhile, the Bears used guys like Devin Aromashodu, Rashweed Davis, Dane Sanzenbacher, and Roy Williams when they realized Johnny Knox, Devin Hester, and Earl Bennet weren't #1 WRs. Additionally, they built an OL of guys like Frank Omiyale, JMarcus Webb, and Lance Louis, worth about 50 points combined, to protect the guy worth several thousand in Draft Trade Value. If getting Watson means giving up multiple first rounders, which it appears it will, then it's a bad move for a franchise that wants to win. Great for tickets, but bad for wins. Agree 100%, if you pay the steep price of bringing in Watson and your left with nothing around him, what good did it do.  His talent would be wasted.  The bold part was just painful to read that was a sad time reading all those names brings back bad memories.  The way to fix the Bears on offense is to start with the line, if you can't protect your QB he's not going to stay upright and by extension won't matter who he'd be throwing to from the ground.  Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted January 22, 2021 Author Report Share Posted January 22, 2021 21 hours ago, jason said: I think the mathematical part of this is overpowering the common sense of it. Sure, the math of 720+720+720 is less than 3000, and the guy worth 3000 in this case has incredible talent, but this is a team game. If we were to take Gabe Carimi, Shea McClellin, and Kyle Long and assign them a value, it wouldn't be 720 each their first year. Carimi was easily a 1000ish (mid-1st) guy his first year before the freak knee injury. Shea sucked, and 90% of this board called it when he was drafted, but he was still a starter for a few years. Let's call him 500, like a 2nd round pick like he should have been. Finally, Long was all-rookie, 3 time pro bowler, and a monster his first three years. You have to slot him like an early first rounder. Let's say 1500. That would be the more realistic math, and a solid start to a team. A first rounder with immense talent can fail, however, if the surrounding talent is so subpar that the talented guy doesn't have the freedom to display said talent. In other words, Jay Cutler being traded to Chicago. Cutler got destroyed his first two years. Absolutely planted over and over again. Led the league in being sacked. Then he was gun-shy, and never the same guy again. Meanwhile, the Bears used guys like Devin Aromashodu, Rashweed Davis, Dane Sanzenbacher, and Roy Williams when they realized Johnny Knox, Devin Hester, and Earl Bennet weren't #1 WRs. Additionally, they built an OL of guys like Frank Omiyale, JMarcus Webb, and Lance Louis, worth about 50 points combined, to protect the guy worth several thousand in Draft Trade Value. If getting Watson means giving up multiple first rounders, which it appears it will, then it's a bad move for a franchise that wants to win. Great for tickets, but bad for wins. I agree. You cant buy a QB in this league and field a real team long term, you HAVE to draft one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McGowan Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 I think that if the Bears wanted to get Watson, the best way for them to build an attractive trade package is to trade their 1st round pick, along with Jaylon Johnson and Roquan Smith. Johnson and Smith are young enough to be rebuild pieces for the Texans, and they've proven themselves at the NFL level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 13 minutes ago, McGowan said: I think that if the Bears wanted to get Watson, the best way for them to build an attractive trade package is to trade their 1st round pick, along with Jaylon Johnson and Roquan Smith. Johnson and Smith are young enough to be rebuild pieces for the Texans, and they've proven themselves at the NFL level. Which basically makes the Bears what the Texans are now. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McGowan Posted January 25, 2021 Report Share Posted January 25, 2021 2 hours ago, adam said: Which basically makes the Bears what the Texans are now. Not really, there's still talent on the D but it's older. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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