adam Posted March 21, 2021 Report Share Posted March 21, 2021 Roster construction is all about bang for your buck. How can you squeeze the most out of the least while staying under the cap. At the end of the day, production has to match the pay in order to field a winning team. Based on 2020 cap hit and AV, here were the top 10 most productive players per dollar last year: David Montgomery Tashaun Gipson Bilal Nichols Darnell Mooney Jaylon Johnson Cairo Santos Brent Urban Barkevious Mingo Anthony Miller Roquan Smith The worst values were Skrine and Demetrius Harris, but interestingly enough the next 3 players that had cap hit over $1M and an AV below 10 were: Foles Fuller Graham The biggest shock was not to see Quinn at the bottom, but he only had a $6.1M cap hit last year, so he didn't need elite production to have marginal value. In case of Foles, Fuller, and Graham, Fuller was the only one with a cap hit over $10M of those 3. Closely following those 3 were Hicks and Leno, both were discussed as cap casualties based on their performance, so the eye test seems to work too. Now if you believe Fuller would repeat 2020 in 2021, there is no way you could pay him $20M. However, now they have to bring someone in for $4-5M and hope they can exceed Fuller's production in 2020. A tall order. The only chance is a bounce-back year from Trufant or a rookie CB. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted March 21, 2021 Report Share Posted March 21, 2021 adam, yes this is what its all about. Pace may not use the exact same grading scale, but in the end, production vs cap hit is what it is all about - thanks for sharing this - great analysis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mongo3451 Posted March 21, 2021 Report Share Posted March 21, 2021 12 minutes ago, BearFan NYC said: adam, yes this is what its all about. Pace may not use the exact same grading scale, but in the end, production vs cap hit is what it is all about - thanks for sharing this - great analysis. Moneyball! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted March 21, 2021 Report Share Posted March 21, 2021 Just now, Mongo3451 said: Moneyball! totally, and I am reading nerdy papers right now about approximate value LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted March 21, 2021 Report Share Posted March 21, 2021 7 of 10 back and possible Gibson and Mingo comes back. The low end players dont have many options because of all the good players out there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted March 21, 2021 Author Report Share Posted March 21, 2021 2 hours ago, Stinger226 said: 7 of 10 back and possible Gibson and Mingo comes back. The low end players dont have many options because of all the good players out there. Yeah, not too bad. Urban signed too quick, as I bet they wanted him back but at the time had the ARob and Fuller stuff going on. Like you said, if Gipson and Mingo come back on comparable deals, that would be 9 out of 10 of the high-value guys back on the roster. 2 hours ago, BearFan NYC said: totally, and I am reading nerdy papers right now about approximate value LOL Enjoy your reading. I like AV better than PFF Grades, though I wish they were broken down lower than whole numbers, like 2 decimals would've been perfect. I really wish this guy had a player rating system: https://www.usatoday.com/sports/nfl/sagarin/ I have been using his team rating systems for a long time. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted March 21, 2021 Report Share Posted March 21, 2021 1 hour ago, adam said: Yeah, not too bad. Urban signed too quick, as I bet they wanted him back but at the time had the ARob and Fuller stuff going on. Like you said, if Gipson and Mingo come back on comparable deals, that would be 9 out of 10 of the high-value guys back on the roster. Enjoy your reading. I like AV better than PFF Grades, though I wish they were broken down lower than whole numbers, like 2 decimals would've been perfect. I really wish this guy had a player rating system: https://www.usatoday.com/sports/nfl/sagarin/ I have been using his team rating systems for a long time. where are you getting your AV numbers? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted March 21, 2021 Author Report Share Posted March 21, 2021 11 minutes ago, BearFan NYC said: where are you getting your AV numbers? PFR: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/chi/2020.htm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stinger226 Posted March 21, 2021 Report Share Posted March 21, 2021 PFF has some value be no way its the bible on football knowledge. People sight them when they rate someone they like but they are not always right . Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted March 21, 2021 Report Share Posted March 21, 2021 36 minutes ago, adam said: PFR: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/chi/2020.htm thank you! EDIT - forgive me but I dont see AV scores there, just regular stats. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted March 21, 2021 Report Share Posted March 21, 2021 5 minutes ago, Stinger226 said: PFF has some value be no way its the bible on football knowledge. People sight them when they rate someone they like but they are not always right . I think PFF is insane. They have said so many things that I disagree with, i discount them as a source for my opinion anyway. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted March 21, 2021 Author Report Share Posted March 21, 2021 55 minutes ago, BearFan NYC said: thank you! EDIT - forgive me but I dont see AV scores there, just regular stats. Go into individual player pages and AV should be the last column. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adam Posted March 21, 2021 Author Report Share Posted March 21, 2021 1 hour ago, Stinger226 said: PFF has some value be no way its the bible on football knowledge. People sight them when they rate someone they like but they are not always right . I don't mind PFF for WR, RB, LB, DL and Edge. Outside of those, their analysis is too subjective for me. They don't know the play, the read, etc, so QB ratings are off, same for OL with blocking assignments. I don't like their secondary ratings as they don't know the coverage assignments. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BearFan PHX Posted March 21, 2021 Report Share Posted March 21, 2021 1 hour ago, adam said: Go into individual player pages and AV should be the last column. thank you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.