Pace draft history

[adam]

So I was curious about how many true hits and misses Pace has had over the last 6 years. Everyone talks about Trubisky, Shaheen (whiffs) or Jackson, Amos (hits), but what about all the others. Bullard and Grasu in the 3rd? Jordan Morgan? Langford and Ridley in the 4th? So I gave a value for each round (1st = 7 to 7th = 1), then either gave Pace credit for the hit (positive value), or negative for a miss. A player needs to play at least 50% of the snaps to be a hit. Using that basic criteria, Pace is a -2 overall, meaning an autodraft or monkey could've done better. That does not include trades, which would change the value of a lot of picks (makes Trubisky worse, etc). Here are the numbers, what do you think?

 

Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos	Hit/Miss	Value
2020	2	Cole Kmet	43	TE	H	6
2020	2	Jaylon Johnson	50	CB	H	6
2020	5	Trevis Gipson	155	DE	M	-3
2020	5	Kindle Vildor	163	CB	M	-3
2020	5	Darnell Mooney	173	WR	H	3
2020	7	Arlington Hambright	226	T	M	-1
2020	7	Lachavious Simmons	227	G	M	-1
Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos		
2019	3	David Montgomery	73	RB	H	5
2019	4	Riley Ridley	126	WR	M	-4
2019	6	Duke Shelley	205	CB	H	2
2019	7	Kerrith Whyte Jr	222	RB	M	-1
2019	7	Stephen Denmark	238	CB	M	-1
Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos		
2018	1	Roquan Smith	8	ILB	H	7
2018	2	James Daniels	39	C	H	6
2018	2	Anthony Miller	51	WR	M	-6
2018	4	Joel Iyiegbuniwe	115	LB	M	-4
2018	5	Bilal Nichols	145	DT	H	3
2018	6	Kylie Fitts	181	DE	M	-2
2018	7	Javon Wims	224	WR	M	-1
Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos		
2017	1	Mitchell Trubisky	2	QB	M	-7
2017	2	Adam Shaheen	45	TE	M	-6
2017	4	Eddie Jackson	112	S	H	4
2017	4	Tarik Cohen	119	RB	H	4
2017	5	Jordan Morgan	147	G	M	-3
Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos		
2016	1	Leonard Floyd	9	OLB	H	7
2016	2	Cody Whitehair	56	G	H	6
2016	3	Jonathan Bullard	72	DT	M	-5
2016	4	Nick Kwiatkoski	113	ILB	H	4
2016	4	Deon Bush	124	S	M	-4
2016	4	Deiondre' Hall	127	CB	M	-4
2016	5	Jordan Howard	150	RB	H	3
2016	6	DeAndre Houston-Carson	185	S	M	-2
2016	7	Daniel Braverman	230	WR	M	-1
Year	Rnd	Player	Pick	Pos		
2015	1	Kevin White	7	WR	M	-7
2015	2	Eddie Goldman	39	DT	H	6
2015	3	Hroniss Grasu	71	C	M	-5
2015	4	Jeremy Langford	106	RB	M	-4
2015	5	Adrian Amos	142	S	H	3
2015	6	Tayo Fabuluje	183	T	M	-2
		Total				-2

 

[Stinger226]

I get your model on value but I think this year Vildor and Gibson get more playing time and become a + . I think from the 5th round and down if you get a player that makes the team and becomes a backup with some playing time, that would be a + for me. From 2019 I think Shelley ends up taking over for Skrine and Ridley still could become a contributing player. Anthony Miller has talent but his issues need to go away to become who we thought he was. He has show flashes. Joel Iggy sucks he never stepped forward. As a drafter he probably falls in the middle of the pack but because so many first round players busted it pulls everything down.

[BearFan PHX]

really cool analysis Adam. Thanks for doing all that work and sharing it.

It's worth noting that one of the big point successes here is Leonard Floyd too.

Pace has made some good picks and some bad picks, and as you say, a weighted random generator would have done no worse. That is no competitive edge.

[adam]

2 hours ago, BearFan NYC said:

really cool analysis Adam. Thanks for doing all that work and sharing it.

It's worth noting that one of the big point successes here is Leonard Floyd too.

Pace has made some good picks and some bad picks, and as you say, a weighted random generator would have done no worse. That is no competitive edge.

Thanks, also note the hits that are no longer on the team should be viewed as a negative too, which would make it worse. 

[BearFan PHX]

Just now, adam said:

Thanks, also note the hits that are no longer on the team should be viewed as a negative too, which would make it worse. 

totally

[adam]

3 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

I get your model on value but I think this year Vildor and Gibson get more playing time and become a + . I think from the 5th round and down if you get a player that makes the team and becomes a backup with some playing time, that would be a + for me. From 2019 I think Shelley ends up taking over for Skrine and Ridley still could become a contributing player. Anthony Miller has talent but his issues need to go away to become who we thought he was. He has show flashes. Joel Iggy sucks he never stepped forward. As a drafter he probably falls in the middle of the pack but because so many first round players busted it pulls everything down.

I understand that not all players will contribute the same amount, but that is why the lower round guys have lesser value, but in order to properly evaluate on an even playing field, you have to have one constant, so I went with hits with 50% of the snaps. I even added Shelley to the hits because he got that much PT after Skrine was out. Gipson had 1 solo tackle, so right now he is a miss. If he improves that can change. Same for Vildor, he allowed 12 completions on 17 attempts and 2 TDs, that is currently a miss.

Misses are also bad players, I forgot to mention that. So Trubisky played a ton, but was a whiff.

[jason]

On 4/4/2021 at 1:57 PM, adam said:

So I was curious about how many true hits and misses Pace has had over the last 6 years. Everyone talks about Trubisky, Shaheen (whiffs) or Jackson, Amos (hits), but what about all the others. Bullard and Grasu in the 3rd? Jordan Morgan? Langford and Ridley in the 4th? So I gave a value for each round (1st = 7 to 7th = 1), then either gave Pace credit for the hit (positive value), or negative for a miss. A player needs to play at least 50% of the snaps to be a hit. Using that basic criteria, Pace is a -2 overall, meaning an autodraft or monkey could've done better. That does not include trades, which would change the value of a lot of picks (makes Trubisky worse, etc). Here are the numbers, what do you think?

This is what I've been saying for years.