QB issues

[fudgeripple2000]

Every year as the draft gets closer the hype on quarterbacks intensifies and the bears are always needing a quarterback, I look back to a list that Bill Parcels made as it relates to drafting a quarterback.

1. 3 year starter

2.  Be a senior

3. Graduate from college

4. start 30 games

5. win 23 games

6. post a 2-1 td to int ratio

7. >60% completion

 

By that list most quarterbacks wouldn't get drafted.  Chicago is not like Jacksonville.  It is an intense football market.  So I took 3 things from that list that I would imagine are important. 

Games played (as most are juniors 3 year starter is out).

year

completion percentage-I will round up to whole numbers

 

Just to look back--mix bag of acheivers with Josh Allen representing the garbage conference (MWC)

Mitch                       Jr         13 games           68%---we all know he wasn't ready

Joe Burrow            Jr          28 games           76%---what sticks out is games against tough opponents

Russell Wilson       Sr         50 games           72%

Pat Mahomes        Jr.         32 games          66%

Josh Allen              Jr          25   games        56.3--he is the true outlier here

2021 projected quarterbacks

Trevor Lawrence  Jr            40 games         69%

Zach Wilson         Jr            30 games         73%  my son played him in high school and dumped him.  He is small and played against garbage competition.  And dad is an ass.  Apple/tree

Mac Jones           Jr            30 games         77% my question is who is the last ELITE quarterback to come out of alabama.  ELITE.  Competition was heavy though.

Justin Fields       Jr             22 games        70% See above concern with Jones.  System quarterback that keys on first receiver.  With epilepsy.

Kyle Trask           Jr             24   games      69%

Tre Lance           Jr              18 games        67%

Kellen Mond     SR             46 games         63%

 

Pro days and combine can be prepared for.  FILM, FILM, FILM.  What have they done?  Have they improved?   I am not saying that I only want Kellen Mond.  I am saying that are we using up good years from a good defense to sit a quarterback?  Because everyone of these quarterbacks outside of Trevor Lawrence, should sit for at least a year.      

[Alaskan Grizzly]

I appreciate the Parcells' measurement criteria and think there is something to be said about it applied to how successful they will be in the NFL.  I shared the below link in another thread and if you apply the Parcells' rules, only Lawrence and Mond were able to get 6/7 of the measurables.  If you apply his technique to last years' class you'll see Herbert and Hurts scored 7/7 and Burrow, Love and Fromm all scored 5/7.  Many say Herbert played well in SD and Hurts is still working on how well he could play in Philly.  If you look at the fact he succeeded in both Alabama and Oklahoma, you'd really not need more to know his ceiling is pretty high.  

Allen is truly an enigma in that a pretty low number of games and still had a low completion rate.  I'm guessing they had a really good running game of which he contributed.   Of the second list of players you show, only Lawrence and Mond had 40 or more games.  By itself that speaks to experience something we know Trubisky did not have and still was drafted #2 overall.  

Last year I was hoping the Bears would have drafted Hurts.  He was available in the later rounds which is where I think they can find a player like Mond this year.  If they need to sit him that's fine as I'm not convinced Dalton will be horrible. He'll be good enough to win a handful of games and keep the team above .500.  IF they were to make the playoffs is where I'd start getting concerned about his performance.  

 

https://thedraftnetwork.com/articles/2021-nfl-draft-qb-class-bill-parcells-rules

[Mongo3451]

You should add Davis Mills.  He is flying up draft boards and has only 13 starts.  He crushed his pro day.

[adam]

What scares me about Jones is thinking of the talent around him; he had 2 WRs that may go in the top 10 of the same draft (Waddle and Smith), as well as Najee Harris (RB) and Alex Leatherwood (OL) who should both be drafted in the top 50. That is 4 Offensive teammates from the same draft class. With guys like Landon Dickerson (OL) and Deonte Brown (OL) who both will go in the first 3 rounds, that's 60% of his offensive players (not including him). How many other players had that much talent on offense?

 

Chris Simms, who is actually a decent analyst compared to some of the others ranked the QBs this way:

1. Wilson
2. Lawrence
3. Jones
4. Mond
5. Fields
6. Lance

https://www.si.com/nfl/49ers/news/chris-simms-quarterback-rankings-for-the-2021-nfl-draft

I was shocked he had Mond so high, and Fields and Lance so low.

Simms on Mond:

Quote

Simms: "Why is nobody talking about this guy? He lost one game in the SEC, threw 19 touchdowns and three interceptions. That merits more talk and hype. But forget that -- his throwing is special. Wilson is the king of the throwing. Jones is extremely consistent. Kellen Mond is the next guy. As pure throwers, guys who can throw perfect strikes every time, Wilson, Jones and Mond are more machines than Trevor Lawrence is at this point. Mond has a really quick release, he keeps the ball up tight. I wish he would relax and loosen up, but that's the way they're taught in college at times. Every throw he makes is bullseye. It's a rocket arm. He doesn't need space in the pocket. He can throw with pressure. The only negative is I wish he'd play a little bit more backyard football. He's a really good athlete, but I think he's trying to do the right thing in the Jimbo Fisher system and go through the reads, and he's a great decision maker, he can go 1 to 2 to 3 seamlessly, he makes very little mistakes, when people aren't open he doesn't compound those mistakes. And I'm not going to lie, I'm not blown away by Jimbo Fisher's offense. It's a little predictable. Defenses are all over their concepts, and he still throws strikes in there."

Last year he ranked them like this:

1. Burrow
2. Herbert
3. Love
4. Tagolvailoa
5. Eason

2019
1. Kyler Murray
2. Drew Lock
3. Dwayne Haskins
4. Ryan Finley
5. Jarrett Stidham
6. Daniel Jones

2018
1. Lamar Jackson
2. Josh Allen
3. Baker Mayfield
4. Sam Darnold
5. Josh Rosen

So he gets most of the evals right. Love and Haskins are his biggest mistakes, but we haven't seen Love, so we don't really know. Haskins turned out to be a bust but he did have him after Murray and Lock. Jury still out on Daniel Jones. 

[Bill]

4 hours ago, adam said:

What scares me about Jones is thinking of the talent around him; he had 2 WRs that may go in the top 10 of the same draft (Waddle and Smith), as well as Najee Harris (RB) and Alex Leatherwood (OL) who should both be drafted in the top 50. That is 4 Offensive teammates from the same draft class. With guys like Landon Dickerson (OL) and Deonte Brown (OL) who both will go in the first 3 rounds, that's 60% of his offensive players (not including him). How many other players had that much talent on offense?

 

Chris Simms, who is actually a decent analyst compared to some of the others ranked the QBs this way:

1. Wilson
2. Lawrence
3. Jones
4. Mond
5. Fields
6. Lance

https://www.si.com/nfl/49ers/news/chris-simms-quarterback-rankings-for-the-2021-nfl-draft

I was shocked he had Mond so high, and Fields and Lance so low.

Simms on Mond:

Last year he ranked them like this:

1. Burrow
2. Herbert
3. Love
4. Tagolvailoa
5. Eason

2019
1. Kyler Murray
2. Drew Lock
3. Dwayne Haskins
4. Ryan Finley
5. Jarrett Stidham
6. Daniel Jones

2018
1. Lamar Jackson
2. Josh Allen
3. Baker Mayfield
4. Sam Darnold
5. Josh Rosen

So he gets most of the evals right. Love and Haskins are his biggest mistakes, but we haven't seen Love, so we don't really know. Haskins turned out to be a bust but he did have him after Murray and Lock. Jury still out on Daniel Jones. 

I enjoy listening to him on PFT in the mornings.  He's growing into someone who seems to have some great understanding of QB play.  Ill take his opinion of QB play that most others.  I do think Jones is going to be an above average QB.  Don't care who he was throwing to. his line, etc.  He still made plays and put the ball where it needed to be.  77% of the time.  Thats pretty damn good for a young man.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

19 hours ago, fudgeripple2000 said:

Tre Lance           Jr              18 games        67%

Lance is the one that confounds me the most on this list.  I don’t get where all the love is coming from.  For the most part I think some have fallen in love with the idea that a former #1 came from there in Wentz but we all see how that’s turning out so far.  And to see Lance only had 18 starts?  That means he only had 5 more starts than Mitch. No thanks.  

[adam]

46 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Lance is the one that confounds me the most on this list.  I don’t get where all the love is coming from.  For the most part I think some have fallen in love with the idea that a former #1 came from there in Wentz but we all see how that’s turning out so far.  And to see Lance only had 18 starts?  That means he only had 5 more starts than Mitch. No thanks.  

Yeah, I am souring on Lance. He played inferior competition and has very limited experience. He should've torched those teams and he was only above average.

[Pixote]

43 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Lance is the one that confounds me the most on this list.  I don’t get where all the love is coming from.  For the most part I think some have fallen in love with the idea that a former #1 came from there in Wentz but we all see how that’s turning out so far.  And to see Lance only had 18 starts?  That means he only had 5 more starts than Mitch. No thanks.  

Agreed, Lance scares me. I don't like to take any player, especially QB, who hasn't had extensive playing time at the college level.

We seem to have a habit of picking players who have flashed "Blue Chip" talent for one year.

The two we picked that I sat in front of my TV begging for us not to select that fit that description was Mitch & Floyd.

[adam]

So what about these guys based on Parcells criteria?

Ian Book - 84.0 QBR, 45 games, 8948 yds, 63.8%, 7.8 Y/A, 72 TD, 20 INT, 147.0 Rating, 1517 Rushing Yds, 17 TD

Sam Ehlinger - 76.6 QBR, 46 games, 11436 yds, 62.5%, 7.7 Y/A, 94 TD, 27 INT, 145.0 Rating, 1903 Rushing Yds, 33 TD 

[BearFan PHX]

44 minutes ago, adam said:

So what about these guys based on Parcells criteria?

Ian Book - 84.0 QBR, 45 games, 8948 yds, 63.8%, 7.8 Y/A, 72 TD, 20 INT, 147.0 Rating, 1517 Rushing Yds, 17 TD

Sam Ehlinger - 76.6 QBR, 46 games, 11436 yds, 62.5%, 7.7 Y/A, 94 TD, 27 INT, 145.0 Rating, 1903 Rushing Yds, 33 TD 

good point.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

2 hours ago, adam said:

So what about these guys based on Parcells criteria?

Ian Book - 84.0 QBR, 45 games, 8948 yds, 63.8%, 7.8 Y/A, 72 TD, 20 INT, 147.0 Rating, 1517 Rushing Yds, 17 TD

Sam Ehlinger - 76.6 QBR, 46 games, 11436 yds, 62.5%, 7.7 Y/A, 94 TD, 27 INT, 145.0 Rating, 1903 Rushing Yds, 33 TD 

Generally speaking, the Parcells' theory is applied to potential 1st (or early round) talent.  Of course we know how reliable the pundits like Mel Kiper are in predicting success for all his picks (he can't).  Nevertheless we and the rest of those who watch the NFL listen to what he (and others like him) say.  That being said, for whatever reason both Book and Ehlinger aren't considered 1st or even 2nd round talent at their position.  So the Parcell's theory hasn't really been applied to them.  But you're right they check many of the boxes.  

One commonality between them seems to be questionable arm strength.  Without watching much tape on either I'd have to guess a lot of their passing yardage credit was made on short and intermediate throws with some good YACs thrown in. That would also attest to their having a higher completion percentage.  With Ehlinger (and to some degree Book) I've heard his tendency for indecisiveness comes into play too (saw one commentator say Ehlinger reminded him a lot of Trubisky).  Still considering a player like Lance above both these guys, wwho are from more reputable and (personally speaking) stronger football schools, makes it that much more difficult to comprehend.

[Stinger226]

Parcels was known for running the ball and playing great defense.  I don't remember him as the QB whisperer.  No matter how you frame it,  QB is the hardest position to evaluate.  I think the best strategy is take one every year and hope you get lucky. People like Lance because of his measurements,  he hasn't proven himself yet which means he should be a 2nd or 3rd round developing QB but the position value won't allow that. I personally don't care which one they take as long as they don't give up draft capital to get one. 

[Bill]

9 hours ago, adam said:

So what about these guys based on Parcells criteria?

Ian Book - 84.0 QBR, 45 games, 8948 yds, 63.8%, 7.8 Y/A, 72 TD, 20 INT, 147.0 Rating, 1517 Rushing Yds, 17 TD

Sam Ehlinger - 76.6 QBR, 46 games, 11436 yds, 62.5%, 7.7 Y/A, 94 TD, 27 INT, 145.0 Rating, 1903 Rushing Yds, 33 TD 

When did Parcells use this criteria, 20 years ago?  Not saying he does not make some good points but different college and NFL now.

[lemonej]

12 hours ago, Bill said:

When did Parcells use this criteria, 20 years ago?  Not saying he does not make some good points but different college and NFL now.

I agree with you. Parcells QBs were Phil Simms, Jeff Hofstetler, Drew Bledsoe and Tony Romo(UDFA)

[Mongo3451]

This is a mock trade that I saw on GMFB.  Thoughts?

[BearFan PHX]

If the right player is there, thats not such a steep price to pay for the move up in the abstract.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

18 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

This is a mock trade that I saw on GMFB.  Thoughts?

No, for the simple fact its more than likely for one of the 'lower-tier' 1st round QB prospects.  IMHO there is equal talent available in later draft positions.  And besides, we've already been down this road.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

15 hours ago, Bill said:

When did Parcells use this criteria, 20 years ago?  Not saying he does not make some good points but different college and NFL now.

Out of curiosity, what would you look for in a great QB coming out of college these days?  

Hell, truth be told the "Tuna" hasn't been doing much football anything in a quite awhile.  Parcells' metrics are more just a tool of entertainment but does provide some good basic measurables:

• Be a three year starter
• Be a senior and graduate college
• Start 30 games (with a successful record of sacks, interceptions, pass completions etc)

You could apply these to just about any positional player and find yourself a good solid prospect.  

[Mongo3451]

29 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

No, for the simple fact its more than likely for one of the 'lower-tier' 1st round QB prospects.  IMHO there is equal talent available in later draft positions.  And besides, we've already been down this road.  

You've read my thoughts ad nauseum...?

[Alaskan Grizzly]

57 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

You've read my thoughts ad nauseum...?

Likewise.  ??

[BearFan PHX]

I have to agree, unless someone falls, or there is a non QB we are coveting, trading up for 8, even if the price is fair isn't a great idea.

Then again, if they take a "second tier QB", and he turns into the best NFL QB ever, we will all be saying it was a genius move.

But in general, I do think 8 is too late to get the blue chipper QBs and too early to reach into the next group of QBs.

[lemonej]

Here's a what if: The Bears trade up for Slater.

[BearFan PHX]

1 hour ago, lemonej said:

Here's a what if: The Bears trade up for Slater.

when I was looking at this thread, I started wondering what else besides a QB could be found at #8, and Slater is one of the strong possibilities.

Now you all know I want an OLT really bad, but I don't know if I would pay 2 firsts and a 3rd for one...

[BearFan PHX]

Looking at a bunch of mock drafts, it looks like #8 would be for Trey Lance.

Trey Lance who has measurables, but only played 18 games for a school that isnt traditionally a football powerhouse.

Pace cant be that dumb can he? It fits the pattern so closely.

Then again, whoever wrote the article is probably just projecting from the existing pattern, so it's circular logic.
 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

2 hours ago, BearFan NYC said:

Looking at a bunch of mock drafts, it looks like #8 would be for Trey Lance.

Trey Lance who has measurables, but only played 18 games for a school that isnt traditionally a football powerhouse.

Pace cant be that dumb can he? It fits the pattern so closely.

Then again, whoever wrote the article is probably just projecting from the existing pattern, so it's circular logic.
 

Been seeing Lance #3 to SF. Makes more since than Jones.