Bears backfield Top 5?

[adam]

After watching some Monty highlights and offseason work, I really like where our RB room is at. Monty is a true RB1 and then you have Damien Williams as a very solid RB2, Tarik Cohen back, and some fresh speed with Khalil Herbert. I was looking around the league, and it was hard for me to find a comparable group. Most die off after 2-3 RBs. Here are the 5 best groups (not individuals):

LV has Jacobs, Drake, Riddick

CLE has Chubb, Hunt, ?

BAL has Dobbins, Edwards, Hill

NO has Kamara, Murray, Montgomery

LAR has Akers, Henderson, ?

 

None of the players listed had more yards than Monty last year.

 

Thoughts?
 

 

[BearFan PHX]

I totally agree with you. I think Montgomery is a really good back with vision and a desire to finish his runs. he reminds me of Raymont Harris in that way. THe run blocking was atrocious for him, and frankly the rhythm of the running playcalling was awful too. With decent blocking, Montgomery is a Pro Bowl player.

William IS a solid #2. Probably the best in the league. He is starter quality.

Cohen and Herbert provide speed matchup problems too.

There is every reason to think that we have the pieces to have a really scary offense. We will know after this year with complete certainty whether Nagy is the guy or not. Most coaches dont get this extra year and such a stocked roster to do that either. We are either going to be really good, or very angry. I am going to predict we will be very good.

[adam]

1 hour ago, BearFan NYC said:

I totally agree with you. I think Montgomery is a really good back with vision and a desire to finish his runs. he reminds me of Raymont Harris in that way. THe run blocking was atrocious for him, and frankly the rhythm of the running playcalling was awful too. With decent blocking, Montgomery is a Pro Bowl player.

William IS a solid #2. Probably the best in the league. He is starter quality.

Cohen and Herbert provide speed matchup problems too.

There is every reason to think that we have the pieces to have a really scary offense. We will know after this year with complete certainty whether Nagy is the guy or not. Most coaches dont get this extra year and such a stocked roster to do that either. We are either going to be really good, or very angry. I am going to predict we will be very good.

Great points, I agree. Also, if you look at our top end players, if Kmet takes a step forward, we really have an elite offense:

ARob, Monty, Kmet is a very solid set of #1s, then you have Mooney, Williams, Graham as the #2s. That is 6 solid players, and not even counting Cohen or Miller. Last year the Bears had 5 players with over 40 receptions (ARob, Monty, Mooney, Miller, and Graham). So we have 8 players that have the potential for 40+ catches. 

[Mongo3451]

3 hours ago, BearFan NYC said:

There is every reason to think that we have the pieces to have a really scary offense. We will know after this year with complete certainty whether Nagy is the guy or not. Most coaches dont get this extra year and such a stocked roster to do that either. We are either going to be really good, or very angry. I am going to predict we will be very good.

I hate to be the negative guy, but I disagree with any prediction of a really good offense this year.  First year QB and LT make me very nervous.  What's the bust rate on first round QB's, then factor in the bust rate on second round tackles...

[Stinger226]

I think a rookie with Fields talent is a step above what we had last year. LT is open for a discussion but Leno was the definition of average. I would rather have a rookie with talent  than  the prospects of Leno being a yr older average play.

[Bill]

7 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

I hate to be the negative guy, but I disagree with any prediction of a really good offense this year.  First year QB and LT make me very nervous.  What's the bust rate on first round QB's, then factor in the bust rate on second round tackles...

What he said.  Not counting a whole revamped OL.  All most the lowest % of cap  then any team.  29th.

[BearFan PHX]

Well you know I think that Leno was far below average despite whatever PFF may have said. But that's old news, and happily, we dont have to debate it anymore.

I think the points about the inexperience at LT and QB are well said too. I guess i should have said we look to have the pieces to develop into a scary offense, and surely I agree it is unlikely to be complete right out of the gate.

As to the low cap number, it's because of so many rookie deals. if you start a second round pick at LT on their rookie deal, your OL cap number is gonna be low!

I still think Nagy's play calling is as important a part of this as any other link in the chain now though. He has challenges, yes, every team does, but he has weapons and options now.

[Stinger226]

Nagy gets to prove himself this year. I think he now has the tools to run his offense. I always think the best coaches are the ones that adapt to their players not force a system on them. This yr will explain a lot about our coach. He has made a lot of mistakes along the way but has a winning record over 3 yrs. I think he deserves some credit for keeping the players playing hard.

[adam]

On 6/28/2021 at 11:51 AM, adam said:

Great points, I agree. Also, if you look at our top end players, if Kmet takes a step forward, we really have an elite offense:

ARob, Monty, Kmet is a very solid set of #1s, then you have Mooney, Williams, Graham as the #2s. That is 6 solid players, and not even counting Cohen or Miller. Last year the Bears had 5 players with over 40 receptions (ARob, Monty, Mooney, Miller, and Graham). So we have 8 players that have the potential for 40+ catches. 

I totally forgot Goodwin and Byrd, who both are WR2 or WR3s on some teams. Byrd was a WR2 with a terrible QB last year in NE. Goodwin led SF in 2017 in receptions and yards (had 447 yds more than their next best receiver - Kittle). 

[adam]

23 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

I hate to be the negative guy, but I disagree with any prediction of a really good offense this year.  First year QB and LT make me very nervous.  What's the bust rate on first round QB's, then factor in the bust rate on second round tackles...

A few things to consider. The difference between the O-Line last year and this year is essentially Leno/Massie for Jenkins/Daniels. That is hard to see that as a downgrade. Also, Jenkins had a first-round grade on him and was projected as one of the top tackles in the draft. The "bust rate" is more related to the 7th, 8th, or 9th OT off the board not working out. Jenkins is not one of those guys. 

Even if Jenkins is a downgrade at LT, he is not blocking for a statue like Foles or a lost QB like Trubisky was. The QBs did not elevate their teammates. Trubisky would run into sacks, Foles wouldn't even move.

So the overall offensive unit as a whole should be better. With Daniels back, the interior is strong and Ifedi had the best stretch of his career at RT to end the year. If he just stood there, he would be as good as Massie was. The % of cap of any given unit is going to be contingent on how many guys are on rookie deals and how many All-Pros you have locked up to a huge deal. The Bears are paying Daniels, Mustipher, and Jenkins on rookie deals, and Ifedi to a very reasonable deal. This should be seen as a positive and not a negative IMO.

 

[Mongo3451]

17 hours ago, adam said:

So the overall offensive unit as a whole should be better. With Daniels back, the interior is strong and Ifedi had the best stretch of his career at RT to end the year. If he just stood there, he would be as good as Massie was. The % of cap of any given unit is going to be contingent on how many guys are on rookie deals and how many All-Pros you have locked up to a huge deal. The Bears are paying Daniels, Mustipher, and Jenkins on rookie deals, and Ifedi to a very reasonable deal. This should be seen as a positive and not a negative IMO.

I hope you are right.  My opinion is simply based on historical data that tells me rookie QB's and LT's struggle greater than any other positions.  Given that Jenkins has minimal experience at LT and was projected to be a RT lends to more development required.  Is the arrow pointing up?  Yes, but next year IMO.

[Stinger226]

6 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

I hope you are right.  My opinion is simply based on historical data that tells me rookie QB's and LT's struggle greater than any other positions.  Given that Jenkins has minimal experience at LT and was projected to be a RT lends to more development required.  Is the arrow pointing up?  Yes, but next year IMO.

I agree its a big unknown with Jenkins, but we knew what Leno was and another yr older, I did not see him being better, he is the definition of average. I think a rookie will make mistakes but his mistakes will help him get better, Leno was just Leno. I think it will even out between regular Leno and a rookie making mistakes. History does tell you how hard those positions are but in the last few yrs we are starting to see that change. Burrows, Hebert, Murray, Josh Allen, Minshew. They all had decent first yrs. As far as LTs only a few played decent. If Jenkins rates close to Leno on service ability, its a win. 

[BearFan PHX]

2 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I agree its a big unknown with Jenkins, but we knew what Leno was and another yr older, I did not see him being better, he is the definition of average. I think a rookie will make mistakes but his mistakes will help him get better, Leno was just Leno. I think it will even out between regular Leno and a rookie making mistakes. History does tell you how hard those positions are but in the last few yrs we are starting to see that change. Burrows, Hebert, Murray, Josh Allen, Minshew. They all had decent first yrs. As far as LTs only a few played decent. If Jenkins rates close to Leno on service ability, its a win. 

I agree with all this, and doubly so, because as you know, my assessment of Leno was even less than yours. So from my point of view, your point here is all the stronger.

[Mongo3451]

54 minutes ago, Stinger226 said:

I agree its a big unknown with Jenkins, but we knew what Leno was and another yr older, I did not see him being better, he is the definition of average. I think a rookie will make mistakes but his mistakes will help him get better, Leno was just Leno. I think it will even out between regular Leno and a rookie making mistakes. History does tell you how hard those positions are but in the last few yrs we are starting to see that change. Burrows, Hebert, Murray, Josh Allen, Minshew. They all had decent first yrs. As far as LTs only a few played decent. If Jenkins rates close to Leno on service ability, its a win. 

I hope so.

[adam]

11 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

I hope you are right.  My opinion is simply based on historical data that tells me rookie QB's and LT's struggle greater than any other positions.  Given that Jenkins has minimal experience at LT and was projected to be a RT lends to more development required.  Is the arrow pointing up?  Yes, but next year IMO.

I almost feel like TE has become one of the hardest positions to excel at as a rookie. Kelce didn't play his rookie year and only started 11 games in year 2. Kittle? Started only 7 games as a rookie with 515 yards. Both Kittle and Kmet had 2 TDs their rookie years.

There have been some pretty good success with rookie QBs of late, especially those that excelled in college. Burrow, Herbert, and Tua in 2020, Murray in 2019, Mayfield and Allen in 2018 all did pretty well their rookie years and I would say Fields is coming in more refined than most of them. 

As for Jenkins, I think if we are treating him like a 2nd rounder, we are doing a disservice to him. There were several mocks with Jenkins to the Bears at 20, and most had him gone before 32. So even though he is a second-round pick, the expectation should be that of a first-round OT, who normally start as rookies. Also, Jenkins reminds me of Quenton Nelson, who looks like they want to crush the defender on every play. Leno was like Eeyore, just happy to be there collecting a paycheck, and he never finished a block to save his life. 

I would be more concerned with Jenkins if this was 2020 all over again, but with a full offseason and time to bound with the QBs, I think Jenkins will be fine. All we are asking of him in Year 1 is Leno level production, which in reality wasn't that high of a bar to set. 

[adam]

4 hours ago, BearFan NYC said:

I agree with all this, and doubly so, because as you know, my assessment of Leno was even less than yours. So from my point of view, your point here is all the stronger.

Leno really changed once he got the big payday. After that, it was a steady decline. Trubisky was so jumpy in the pocket (and he normally scrambled to the right) that Leno was often not blamed for any hurries or pressures, but the tape doesn't lie. He was great for a late-round pick, but they never should've extended him a year early and for that length and amount.

[Stinger226]

They thought they has a comer so they extended him then he plateaued. Just didn't get better. A great 7th round value but they should have replaced him like you said.