NFL Over/Under Wins

[adam]

For how well the media liked the Bears draft, the oddsmakers do not like this team. They have the T-9th lowest win total at 7.5. With a 17 game season, that is basically the old 7-9 record for a 16 game season (so a coin toss between 8-9 or 7-10).

So the Bears are going to end up with a top 10 pick? What am I missing?

In terms of snap counts, they lost Trubisky, Fuller, and Leno. That is really it. No offense to Mitch, but he was a terrible QB and Foles was not much better. Dalton/Fields is at least +2-3 wins. The loss of Fuller hurts the most, but it's not like Fuller was playing at an All-Pro level like he did a few years ago. Also, if you think about it this way, if Johnson takes the next step in terms of development (remember he had no offseason as a rookie), he fills Fuller's void, and we only need a CB2 to fill his shoes from last year, which is much easier to fill with Trufant, Burns, Roberson, Graham, or even Vildor. Skrine not at Nickel is a plus, regardless who fills that spot. Leno may be missed but I can't imagine Jenkins not being able to play near Leno's level last year. All Ifedi has to do to replace Massie is stand there for 1 second in front of the defender. Not hard to replace. If Goldman does return, that is a huge boost for the D-Line that feels like a free upgrade from 2020. 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/2021-nfl-win-totals-odds-predictions-best-bets-top-expert-picks-over-10-5-wins-for-l-a-rams/

Looking thru the list, I feel like they have the following teams too high:

SF 10 wins - tough division to get 10 wins in, especially for a team that has only 1 winning record in the last 4 seasons and a 6-10 record last year.
Cowboys 9.5 wins - I get that they got Prescott back, but that is a huge jump from a 6 win team that was in a terrible division
Patriots 9 wins - 7 wins last year with basically the same team in a division that is improving?
Vikings 8.5 wins - So they are going to magically jump the Bears by +2 wins from last year?
Broncos 7.5 wins - They were 5-11 with a -123 pts differential, and they are going to win 2 more games? This seems like an easy bet for the under.

Teams too low:

PIT - 9 wins, this team won 12 last year. With a 17 game schedule, this is easily a 10 win team.
WAS - 8 wins, this team has a borderline dominant defense in a bad division. 9 wins minimum.
CHI - 7.5 wins, again, I would be shocked if this team didn't win at least 9 games. 

There were 5 teams with 4 or less wins in 2020. The odds only have 2 teams with 5 wins (DET and HOU). I would bet the under on HOU (5), DET (5), JAX (6), NYJ (6), and ATL (7). 

Thoughts?
Who do you think is too high or too low?
 

 

[jason]

Compelling breakdown, but here's how I see it:

1. Sunday, Sept. 12 at Los Angeles Rams, 7:20 p.m. - Primetime and the Rams are good. Loss
2. Sunday, Sept. 19 VS. CINCINNATI BENGALS, Noon - They will improve, but not that much. Win
3. Sunday, Sept. 26 at Cleveland Browns, Noon - This team has swag. Loss 
4. Sunday, Oct. 3 VS. DETROIT LIONS, Noon - Always close games. Split series this year. Win.
5. Sunday, Oct. 10 at Las Vegas Raiders, 3:05 p.m.* - Random game. Win.
6. Sunday, Oct. 17 VS. GREEN BAY PACKERS, Noon* - They own the Bears. Loss.
7. Sunday, Oct. 24 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 3:25 p.m.* - Brady avenges his brainfart from last year. Field probably starts by now. Loss.
8. Sunday, Oct. 31 VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS, Noon* - This is a trap game IMO. Anyway. Win.
9. Monday, Nov. 8 at Pittsburgh Steelers, 7:15 p.m. - Primetime, perpetually good team. Loss.
10. Sunday, Nov. 21 VS. BALTIMORE RAVENS, Noon* - Tough team. Loss.
11. Thursday, Nov. 25 at Detroit Lions (Thanksgiving), 11:30 a.m. Always close games. Split series this year. Primetime. Loss.
12. Sunday, Dec. 5 VS. ARIZONA CARDINALS, Noon* - At this point it's win or go home. Just to make it interesting. Win.
13. Sunday, Dec. 12 at Green Bay Packers, 7:20 p.m.* - They own the Bears. Likely the nail in the playoff coffin. Loss.
14. Monday, Dec. 20 VS. MINNESOTA VIKINGS, 7:15 p.m. - Hey, 17 games and 8 losses? Time to get moving. Win.
15. Sunday, Dec. 26 at Seattle Seahawks, 3:05 p.m.* - The C-Hox have a playoff lock, the Bears players look up Pyrrhic victories during their dance party. Win.
16. Sunday, Jan. 2 VS. NEW YORK GIANTS, Noon* - This is so obvious. Just like a Greek tragedy. Win.
17. Sunday, Jan. 9 at Minnesota Vikings, Noon* - Finish on a 4-game streak for false-confidence, but lose a playoff tie-breaker. Win.

Long story short, 9-8, out of the playoffs, false confidence, worse draft position because of the end of the season, but all anyone will talk about, in classic Chicago fashion, is "JUST WAIT UNTIL NEXT YEAR." So, 7.5 wins is slightly underrated.

[adam]

1 hour ago, jason said:

55 minutes ago, jason said:

Compelling breakdown, but here's how I see it:

1. Sunday, Sept. 12 at Los Angeles Rams, 7:20 p.m. - Primetime and the Rams are good. Loss 
2. Sunday, Sept. 19 VS. CINCINNATI BENGALS, Noon - They will improve, but not that much. Win
3. Sunday, Sept. 26 at Cleveland Browns, Noon - This team has swag. Loss 
4. Sunday, Oct. 3 VS. DETROIT LIONS, Noon - Always close games. Split series this year. Win.
5. Sunday, Oct. 10 at Las Vegas Raiders, 3:05 p.m.* - Random game. Win.
6. Sunday, Oct. 17 VS. GREEN BAY PACKERS, Noon* - They own the Bears. Loss.
7. Sunday, Oct. 24 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 3:25 p.m.* - Brady avenges his brainfart from last year. Field probably starts by now. Loss.
8. Sunday, Oct. 31 VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS, Noon* - This is a trap game IMO. Anyway. Win.
9. Monday, Nov. 8 at Pittsburgh Steelers, 7:15 p.m. - Primetime, perpetually good team. Loss.
10. Sunday, Nov. 21 VS. BALTIMORE RAVENS, Noon* - Tough team. Loss.
11. Thursday, Nov. 25 at Detroit Lions (Thanksgiving), 11:30 a.m. Always close games. Split series this year. Primetime. Loss.
12. Sunday, Dec. 5 VS. ARIZONA CARDINALS, Noon* - At this point it's win or go home. Just to make it interesting. Win.
13. Sunday, Dec. 12 at Green Bay Packers, 7:20 p.m.* - They own the Bears. Likely the nail in the playoff coffin. Loss.
14. Monday, Dec. 20 VS. MINNESOTA VIKINGS, 7:15 p.m. - Hey, 17 games and 8 losses? Time to get moving. Win.
15. Sunday, Dec. 26 at Seattle Seahawks, 3:05 p.m.* - The C-Hox have a playoff lock, the Bears players look up Pyrrhic victories during their dance party. Win.
16. Sunday, Jan. 2 VS. NEW YORK GIANTS, Noon* - This is so obvious. Just like a Greek tragedy. Win.
17. Sunday, Jan. 9 at Minnesota Vikings, Noon* - Finish on a 4-game streak for false-confidence, but lose a playoff tie-breaker. Win.

Long story short, 9-8, out of the playoffs, false confidence, worse draft position because of the end of the season, but all anyone will talk about, in classic Chicago fashion, is "JUST WAIT UNTIL NEXT YEAR." So, 7.5 wins is slightly underrated.

7.5 does feel low, even if they underachieve, that is probably 8 wins.

Great breakdown, I was thinking 9-10 wins and that may come down to if Rodgers plays or not. I almost think that is a 2-game shift if he plays or not. We win both if Love plays and we lose both if Rodgers plays. 

In regards to your projections, I can't see the Bears losing to Detroit, regardless of the short week or not. I also think that the Bears will be very competitive against Pittsburgh and Baltimore (Bears coming off a bye). 3 straight losses and 6 out of 8 in the meat of the schedule may spell the end of Nagy if that happens. 

I'm thinking the 7th seed is in reach and it will come down to Week 17 in Minnesota. 

Jason, so is this projection with Dalton or Fields, and if you swapped them, how would you change your projections. I think Fields is going to give the team a better chance in closer games where his legs become a weapon.

[Bill]

Best case for me is 10-7.  But will be happy with 9-8. If injuries or bad play call and coaching  7-10.  If the wheels fall off and a few key players get lost or badly underperform  6-11.  I think this roster is the best it's been top to bottom for well over ten years.

[adam]

15 hours ago, Bill said:

Best case for me is 10-7.  But will be happy with 9-8. If injuries or bad play call and coaching  7-10.  If the wheels fall off and a few key players get lost or badly underperform  6-11.  I think this roster is the best it's been top to bottom for well over ten years.

They went 12-4 in 2018 and this roster looks to be stronger, like you said, from top to bottom. So if that is the case, 11 wins seems possible.

[Stinger226]

I can see possible 12 if Fields starts the season in game 1. I think we have a very good roster and are under estimating their value. Pace upgraded OL, RB, WR, and QB. The front 7 on D is top 5. The only question is back of D, I think we're good.

[Mongo3451]

21 hours ago, jason said:

Compelling breakdown, but here's how I see it:

1. Sunday, Sept. 12 at Los Angeles Rams, 7:20 p.m. - Primetime and the Rams are good. Loss/L
2. Sunday, Sept. 19 VS. CINCINNATI BENGALS, Noon - They will improve, but not that much. Win/W
3. Sunday, Sept. 26 at Cleveland Browns, Noon - This team has swag. Loss/L
4. Sunday, Oct. 3 VS. DETROIT LIONS, Noon - Always close games. Split series this year. Win/W
5. Sunday, Oct. 10 at Las Vegas Raiders, 3:05 p.m.* - Random game. Win/W
6. Sunday, Oct. 17 VS. GREEN BAY PACKERS, Noon* - They own the Bears. Loss/W
7. Sunday, Oct. 24 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 3:25 p.m.* - Brady avenges his brainfart from last year. Field probably starts by now. Loss/L
8. Sunday, Oct. 31 VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS, Noon* - This is a trap game IMO. Anyway. Win/L
9. Monday, Nov. 8 at Pittsburgh Steelers, 7:15 p.m. - Primetime, perpetually good team. Loss/W
10. Sunday, Nov. 21 VS. BALTIMORE RAVENS, Noon* - Tough team. Loss/L
11. Thursday, Nov. 25 at Detroit Lions (Thanksgiving), 11:30 a.m. Always close games. Split series this year. Primetime. Loss/W
12. Sunday, Dec. 5 VS. ARIZONA CARDINALS, Noon* - At this point it's win or go home. Just to make it interesting. Win/L
13. Sunday, Dec. 12 at Green Bay Packers, 7:20 p.m.* - They own the Bears. Likely the nail in the playoff coffin. Loss/L
14. Monday, Dec. 20 VS. MINNESOTA VIKINGS, 7:15 p.m. - Hey, 17 games and 8 losses? Time to get moving. Win/W
15. Sunday, Dec. 26 at Seattle Seahawks, 3:05 p.m.* - The C-Hox have a playoff lock, the Bears players look up Pyrrhic victories during their dance party. Win/L
16. Sunday, Jan. 2 VS. NEW YORK GIANTS, Noon* - This is so obvious. Just like a Greek tragedy. Win/W
17. Sunday, Jan. 9 at Minnesota Vikings, Noon* - Finish on a 4-game streak for false-confidence, but lose a playoff tie-breaker. W/L

I HAVE 8-9

[adam]

So you guys are in agreement on 5-5 with 7 games up for grabs. A 12-win best case scenario and 5-win worst case scenario with 8.5-8.5 right in the middle.

I know the AFC North is tough, but I feel like we will at least split with them. Wins against CIN and PIT, losses against BAL and CLE. 

[Stinger226]

As much as they have a tough schedule., going into last yr, I thought we would lose to SF, Pit, TB, and Buff. We didnt, I am not sure projections from yr to yr can be consistent. I could take a safe guess and say 8-9 or 9-8 but I prefer to state what I believe  that they will do better than that. I am one of those people , right or wrong , always give my honest opinion. Now, injuries always come into play but as of now, 12-5, also I am basing my projections on Rodgers been gone from GB. May not happen.

[killakrzydav]

Sounds like a good bet

[jason]

On 7/6/2021 at 4:21 PM, adam said:

7.5 does feel low, even if they underachieve, that is probably 8 wins.

Great breakdown, I was thinking 9-10 wins and that may come down to if Rodgers plays or not. I almost think that is a 2-game shift if he plays or not. We win both if Love plays and we lose both if Rodgers plays. 

In regards to your projections, I can't see the Bears losing to Detroit, regardless of the short week or not. I also think that the Bears will be very competitive against Pittsburgh and Baltimore (Bears coming off a bye). 3 straight losses and 6 out of 8 in the meat of the schedule may spell the end of Nagy if that happens. 

I'm thinking the 7th seed is in reach and it will come down to Week 17 in Minnesota. 

Jason, so is this projection with Dalton or Fields, and if you swapped them, how would you change your projections. I think Fields is going to give the team a better chance in closer games where his legs become a weapon.

I think Fields starts by the Tampa Bay game. Not only do I think the Bears will start slow, but I think it'll be a good story/reason with Fields (i.e. youth of the league) going against Brady (i.e. soon-to-retire GOAT).

[Stinger226]

On 7/8/2021 at 9:12 PM, killakrzydav said:

Sounds like a good bet

Last year I won 100 on the bears over 7.5 wins.  Will be doing the same this year to.

[Mongo3451]

5 hours ago, Stinger226 said:

Last year I won 100 on the bears over 7.5 wins.  Will be doing the same this year to.

Same!  Took it this year too...

[Bill]

6 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Same!  Took it this year too...

Don't get me wrong.  But I don't understand betting on things one has no control over.  I've won over 1500 in my fantasy league the last two years for only 250 investment..  Not counting all the trash talking I get to do.  Yea I might go another ten years and win nothing but I have some control over what I do.  Not a big gambler after getting my ass burned for decades

[Pixote]

I assume you guys who mention betting do so online. What site/service do you use? 

I've never placed a bet like this before but if the O/U is 7.5 I think I just might give it a go.

[Stinger226]

In Illinois, I get on the Betrivers site. They give you double your money to join, or did when I joined anyway. The funny thing is , I use to win money playing FF, but am lousy at it now , but the last 3 yrs have been winning gambling on football which I never did In the past. Never drank heavy or got into drugs but love gambling. I guess everyone has a vice, that would be mine. I take 500 every year and gamble with it for football season and smart enough to quit if I lose, but been lucky the last 3 yes on betting on football.

[Mongo3451]

3 hours ago, Pixote said:

I assume you guys who mention betting do so online. What site/service do you use? 

I've never placed a bet like this before but if the O/U is 7.5 I think I just might give it a go.

Fanduel and Draftkings.  Send me your email and I'll send an invite.  We'll both get 50$ free cash!?

 

[killakrzydav]

I use bookmaker, gtbets, betus, justbet, & heritage. I'm basically a bonus whore that runs up an account and requests a withdrawal before switching to another.  All have paid. If you want my referral code( or bonus whore guidance) I can hook you up.

[adam]

The Bears would have to be hit with a ton of injuries not to hit 8 wins.