Jump to content

We should have signed Robinson to a long term deal


BearFan PHX

Recommended Posts

Here's a topic - I think Pace should have signed Robinson to a long term deal. Of course I don't know what he was asking, but if it was fair market value, I think it was a mistake not to sign him and give Fields that receiver to grow with long term.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, BearFan NYC said:

Here's a topic - I think Pace should have signed Robinson to a long term deal. Of course I don't know what he was asking, but if it was fair market value, I think it was a mistake not to sign him and give Fields that receiver to grow with long term.

I really think Robinson is a very good, not star receiver, who wants to be paid like a star.  I like and respect his game - but don't think he was worth a multi year deal that got him his 20M/yr target.  If in a year they don't like the FA market - go ahead and sign him again to franchise him vs. tying up the LT cap too significantly.  

I believe Bears were around 16M/yr vs. Robinson wanting $20M/yr.  Robinson has mediocre seperation and while his fundamentals are super strong - I just don't think the Bears value him at that high of a price tag. Heck - look at what happened on the FA WR market this offseason.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

I really think Robinson is a very good, not star receiver, who wants to be paid like a star.  I like and respect his game - but don't think he was worth a multi year deal that got him his 20M/yr target.  If in a year they don't like the FA market - go ahead and sign him again to franchise him vs. tying up the LT cap too significantly.  

I believe Bears were around 16M/yr vs. Robinson wanting $20M/yr.  Robinson has mediocre seperation and while his fundamentals are super strong - I just don't think the Bears value him at that high of a price tag. Heck - look at what happened on the FA WR market this offseason.  

I read that Bears were at 16 also and it was mentioned that he is looking at what Keenan Allen and Amari Cooper got as his target.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It makes you wonder if Pace wasn't trying for $18M, and Robinson holding for $20M.

$16M seems low for his worth. DABEARS makes some good points above about him maybe not being worth $20M, but I think he is worth more than $16M for sure.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So here is a list of the recent WR leaders in receptions and yards with their career AV and games played, and an average value per game. Robinson comes in at #17.

From the top 20 players in receptions, Robinson had the 16th best QB rating and was 21st in TDs, and only Marvin Jones had a lower YAC AVG than Robinson (39th) in the top 40. Robinson only had 319 YAC. So if you strictly go off receptions, ARob has been a top 10 WR, for yards, top 15, and TDs, top 20. So just with those numbers, you can say he should be paid between 10-15 which still comes in higher than his AV rating at #17.

Jones AV 119, G 135 .882 (signed for $22M AAV)
Thomas AV 60, G 70 .857 (signed for $19.25M AAV)
Hill AV - 62, G  74 .838 (signed for $18M AAV)
-----------------------------------------------
AJ Brown AV 23, G 30 .767
Jefferson AV 12, G 16 .750
---------------------------------------------
Diggs AV 61, G 86 .709 (signed for $14.4M AAV)
Beckham AV 57, G 82 .695 (signed for $18M AAV)
Metcalf AV 21, G 32 .656
Cooks AV 66, G 103 .641 (signed for $16.2M AAV)
Allen AV 63, G 100 .630 (signed for $20M AAV)
Hopkins AV 79, G 126 .627 (signed for $27.3M AAV)
Adams AV 62, G 100 .620 (signed for $14.5M AAV)
Evans AV 65, G 106 .613 (signed for $16.5M AAV)
----------------------------------------
Kupp AV 31, G 54 .574 (signed for $15.75M)
Ridley AV 25, G 44 .568
DJ Moore AV 26, G 46 .565
Robinson AV 48, G 88 .545 (Franchise $17.8M AAV)
Smith-Schuster AV 31, G 58 .534 (signed for $8M AAV)
Cooper AV 49, G 93 .527 (signed for $20M AAV)
Lockett AV 50, G 95 .526  (signed for $17.25M AAV)
Landry AV 57, G 111 .514 (signed for $15.1M AAV)
Golladay AV 24, G 47 .511 (signed for $18M AAV)
Woods AV 59, G 116  .508 (signed for $16.25 AAV)
-----------------------------------------
Thielen AV 48, G 105 .457 (signed for $16M AAV)

 

So I can understand their concern. Can they afford to pay him as one of the top two tiers when he is performing more in the 3rd and 4th tier?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

46 minutes ago, BearFan NYC said:

It makes you wonder if Pace wasn't trying for $18M, and Robinson holding for $20M.

$16M seems low for his worth. DABEARS makes some good points above about him maybe not being worth $20M, but I think he is worth more than $16M for sure.

Remember, we were broke going into the off season, resulting in us having to cut Fuller.  They may have said, if you want four years now it's gotta be 64 mil. Otherwise we sign you for 17 on the franchise and hope to get something done later.  Also, they can franchise him again.  Robinson was asking for top 5 money out of a tenth place resume.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

53 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

Remember, we were broke going into the off season, resulting in us having to cut Fuller.  They may have said, if you want four years now it's gotta be 64 mil. Otherwise we sign you for 17 on the franchise and hope to get something done later.  Also, they can franchise him again.  Robinson was asking for top 5 money out of a tenth place resume.

Assuming he will play under the tag, then mathematically, you're right. Paying him the tag is no more expensive than what he's asking for. But if he holds out (like next year) then it's not just a matter of numbers anymore.

But I can see why Pace doesn't want to give him $20M a year.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If they hit the nail on the head with Fields, he will make mediocre WRs better.  The Bears not betting long on AR are counting on Mooney and Kmet to take bigger roles in the passing game and maybe someone else to step up.  If no one steps up, you can still franchise or sign AR next year.   They can also use a 2nd RD pick next season too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, BearFan NYC said:

Assuming he will play under the tag, then mathematically, you're right. Paying him the tag is no more expensive than what he's asking for. But if he holds out (like next year) then it's not just a matter of numbers anymore.

But I can see why Pace doesn't want to give him $20M a year.

If he holds out - I still franchise him - trade him for a pick - than redeploy the funds on another wideout/other team needs. I kind of think as Adam broke it down and you mentioned - the Bears are just more comfortable going year to year with him at this point vs. locking him up long-term.  They prefer the flexibility. If we were talking about a franchise QB - I would disagree with that approach - but for a skill position player, especially one with more modest speed (who statistically from a pure seperation perspective ranked below average across the league over past 2 years - meaning - QB's have to thread the needle to hit him - to his credit though - he makes a ton of catches other wideouts don't in traffic) - I just don't love the bet long-term.

It is hard for me to say the above - because I like Arob the player and person a lot. He's a total professional who does the little things and gets the most out of himself and is a well above average player.  And - maybe he actually ages like a fine one - because he relies less on pure athleticism and more on skill/craft (which ages better).  But I don't see WR prices steeply increasing over the next year - especially not after this past offseason where wideouts were getting much smaller contracts than expected.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

He's a top 10 WR in the league, but because he is a possession type , he's not worth top 5 money. I would rather have him here but over the last two yrs, a large group of young good wrs coming into the league. They are thinking they can tag him twice and then not have to pay him 20 to 22 mil a yr for his last couple of yrs on a 4 yr deal. They essentially pay him 40 mil for 2 yrs and develop Mooney, a speedy wr paying a lot less money. Possession type WRs just don't get too dollar, they want to throw downfield, not 10 yard pops.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
×
×
  • Create New...