Fields Named Starter for Season

[adam]

Justin Fields just had his best game as a pro, a 63.4 QBR and that is with the stupid Mooney tipped ball INT. He had a career high in Comp% at 70.4, and two highlight reel TDs, I can watch those on loop all week.

The Run:

The pass:

Those are the types of plays we have been waiting for. Notice no separation by James, no problem, rolling to his left and throwing it only where James could get it. The run was insane because it was also 4th Down and the original play call got blown up. SF was one of the better defenses the Bears have faced and they scored 22. That is progress. Now they need that big 27+ score game and string some of those together.

So how did the other rookies do:

Lawrence had a league-low QBR of 11.7 this week, Mills was second lowest at 12.6, Mac Jones was 52.7, White in place of Wilson was 54.1, and Lance didn't play. So Fields was the best of the bunch and 8th in the NFL this week. Mac Jones has been the most consistent and NFL ready QB thus far and it shows. He was clearly the safe pick. However, we are now seeing glimpses of what Fields can do. I rarely see another rookie highlight on NFL.com and Fields is already racking them up. I will be curious to see where his DVOA is at after this week's game.

 

[Mongo3451]

He's starting to look more comfortable.  I like it.

[adam]

After Jared Goff's stinker, he now has the honors as the QB with the lowest QBR this season, dropping past Fields to 33rd. 

QBs as a whole have been struggling this year, Stafford still owns the top QBR this year at 67.1 which is almost 10 pts below the lowest #1 QBR since the stat was created (Palmer 76.4 in 2015). Last year there were 15 QBs over 60, this year there are 8. Not that it matters but it is interesting nonetheless.

[adam]

Not that Fields is not to blame for some of his bad plays, but he has really been unlucky with his INTs. Out of all of them, 2 were on him (CIN and 3rd one in TB), 2 were partially his fault (DET and PIT), but the other 4, 2 on Mooney and 2 on bad calls/coaching (free plays or not).

1 - CIN, LB dropped into coverage, 100% his fault. Rookie mistake. Bad read.
2 - DET, tipped at LOS by incoming LB. Tough to fault him there. Bad luck.
3 - GB, Hard count, GB jumped, no call, thought they had a free play. Bad officials.
4 - TB, Quick snap, was told it was a free play, ARob slips. Bad coaching/luck.
5 - TB, Off both of Mooney's hands, ugh. Can't play volleyball like that. Bad WR.
6 - TB, Under throw to ARob on the sidelines throwing from end zone. Bad throw.
7 - SF, Another Mooney volleyball play, pass was nearly perfect, see pic below. Bad WR.
8 - PIT, Intercepted by DLine on quick throw. Bad luck.

This was intercepted:

[adam]

It is amazing how the eye test can be so much different than the actual stats. Here is a comparison between Dwayne Haskins rookie year with WAS and Fields this year to this point:

Haskins 2-5-0, 119-203, 58.6%, 1365 yds, 7 TD, 76.1 QB Rating, 7 INT, 29 Sacks, 6.7 Y/A
Fields 2-6-0, 115-198, 58.1%, 1361 yds, 4 INT, 69.0 Rating, 8 INT, 31 Sacks, 6.9 Y/A

Now that is astonishing, with 4 completions, 5 attempts, 0.5% comp %, 4 yds, 1 INT, 2 sacks, and 0.2 Y/A

Haskins actually has more passing TDs (by 3), so outside of the rushing (Fields 311 yds and 2 TDs to 101 yds and 0 TDs), how can the stats be so off? What am I missing?

[Mongo3451]

9 hours ago, adam said:

It is amazing how the eye test can be so much different than the actual stats. Here is a comparison between Dwayne Haskins rookie year with WAS and Fields this year to this point:

The eye test is very tricky when you are wishing with all of your being that a player succeeds.  That is where we are with every new QB we get.  We take the wow plays and see that as glimpse into a successful future.  It's kinda like golf.  You hit a good shot, now that becomes the goal and expectation.  

What I see from Justin is mixed.  He shows promise with the deep ball and improvisational plays.  He is very weak on processing the speed of the game, as he often is late to deliver.(this was Mitch's major flaw as well)  He is also weak on moving around in the pocket.(Mitch also)  He also hasn't shown the ability to throw players open.(Mitch again) I've never read a critique on his release, but it could be a lot quicker.  His delivery is long and smooth which helps with the deep ball accuracy.  

I'm very hopeful that Justin will grow and succeed, as I did Mitch.  Both have above average arm strength and highly mobile.  One is accurate short, while the other long.  I think Justin is a little more than Mitch, so my expectation is a little more.

[adam]

1 hour ago, Mongo3451 said:

The eye test is very tricky when you are wishing with all of your being that a player succeeds.  That is where we are with every new QB we get.  We take the wow players and see that as glimpse into a successful future.  It's kinda like golf.  You hit a good shot, now that becomes the goal and expectation.  

What I see from Justin is mixed.  He shows promise with the deep ball and improvisational plays.  He is very weak on processing the speed of the game, as he often is late to deliver.(this was Mitch's major flaw as well)  He is also weak on moving around in the pocket.(Mitch also)  He also hasn't shown the ability to throw players open.(Mitch again) I've never read a critique on his release, but it could be a lot quicker.  His delivery is long and smooth which helps with the deep ball accuracy.  

I'm very hopeful that Justin will grow and succeed, as I did Mitch.  Both have above average arm strength and highly mobile.  One is accurate short, while the other long.  I think Justin is a little more than Mitch, so my expectation is a little more.

I agree 100%. I was just shocked that Fields' stats were nearly identical to Dwayne Haskins, who looked absolutely terrible as a rookie.

[AZ54]

I think it’s more about the upward trend than overall stats.   

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, adam said:

I agree 100%. I was just shocked that Fields' stats were nearly identical to Dwayne Haskins, who looked absolutely terrible as a rookie.

Haskins gets easily distracted and bored (recalling the time he was with WFT and was supposed to be on the field when he was taking selfies with fans) and this (below).  Justin isn’t that way.  Still the stats are pretty interesting.  
 

 

[adam]

1 hour ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Haskins gets easily distracted and bored (recalling the time he was with WFT and was supposed to be on the field when he was taking selfies with fans) and this (below).  Justin isn’t that way.  Still the stats are pretty interesting.  
 

 

That is what is so weird. Fields is the model player, upstanding kid, works hard, respectful, great teammate, has all the intangibles but then on the field the stats look way to close to Haskins who could care less about studying defenses, etc. Also, it was not like Haskins had some dominant players or anything. The same season he was 2-5 as a starter, Keenum was 1-7. His RB was 48 yr old Adrian Peterson and after Terry McLaurin, the next WR was Steven Sims. Their best TE, Jeremy Sprinkle. So you could say Fields is in a better place, yet the stats don't bear that out. Either we are really overrating Fields or Nagy is so bad that he can make a great QB look mediocre. 

[Alaskan Grizzly]

6 hours ago, adam said:

Either we are really overrating Fields or Nagy is so bad that he can make a great QB look mediocre. 

I’m going with the latter.  I just can’t believe that Fields is that bad a QB that he won’t improve. 

The wife and I were watching highlights earlier and saw Joe Burrow continuing to light things up. I predicted Fields would be next year’s version of Burrow.  I think they’re more alike than Fields and Haskins. 

[adam]

9 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

I’m going with the latter.  I just can’t believe that Fields is that bad a QB that he won’t improve. 

The wife and I were watching highlights earlier and saw Joe Burrow continuing to light things up. I predicted Fields would be next year’s version of Burrow.  I think they’re more alike than Fields and Haskins. 

Oh I agree, and Fields has a better arm and is more mobile. Fields upside is up there with a top 5 QB, but due to some fixable issues, he can easily be a bottom 5 QB any week. As long as he continues to improve, he has the capacity to get there. If there is a perfect example of a system helping a rookie, look no further then NE and Jones compared to Fields, Wilson, Lawrence, and Mills. Lance has not played enough to get an assessment there.

[Mongo3451]

3 hours ago, adam said:

If there is a perfect example of a system helping a rookie, look no further then NE and Jones compared to Fields, Wilson, Lawrence, and Mills. Lance has not played enough to get an assessment there.

Yeah, Jones went to as solid of a place that there is.  Established coaching staff, great OL, great defense and a very nice selection of skill players.  Pats were ravaged last year with covid19 opt outs and first year without Brady.  Sucks, but our OL got worse, as well as our receiving corps.  Not to mention defense banged up along with a terrible secondary.  2022 is going to be up and down.  2023 will have to be his year...

[adam]

Now their are Broncos fans believing that Patrick Surtain (CB) was still a better pick than Justin Fields, these are pure comedy:

 

 

 

[adam]

There are so many more, and they are funny. Surtain is a great player, but Denver doesn't have a QB. Without it they will continue to be a .500 team. They are 6-5 and have a harder path to the playoffs than the Bears do at 4-7.

They play KC twice, CIN, LV, LAC and DET. The only gimme is DET. They will have to win at least 2 against KC, KC, LV, CIN, LAC to have a chance at the playoffs. 

[AZ54]

On 11/28/2021 at 2:09 PM, adam said:

That is what is so weird. Fields is the model player, upstanding kid, works hard, respectful, great teammate, has all the intangibles but then on the field the stats look way to close to Haskins who could care less about studying defenses, etc. Also, it was not like Haskins had some dominant players or anything. The same season he was 2-5 as a starter, Keenum was 1-7. His RB was 48 yr old Adrian Peterson and after Terry McLaurin, the next WR was Steven Sims. Their best TE, Jeremy Sprinkle. So you could say Fields is in a better place, yet the stats don't bear that out. Either we are really overrating Fields or Nagy is so bad that he can make a great QB look mediocre. 

I think these stats are showing what physically talented rookie QBs can do as a baseline.  Haskins has arm talent.   As fans I still believe we underestimate just how much these first year QBs have to learn.   I'm oversimplifying it (a lot) but it's basically backyard football early on in the rookie season and the arm (or running) talent will get you a base level of performance stats whether you are Trubisky, Jackson, Haskins, Lawrence, Jones (Daniel or Mac), Fields, Kyler Murray, etc.   I get there are fliers out there like Herbert but if I could put rookie QB stats into a control chart we'd likely see a trend of upper and lower limits for the vast majority of these QBs.   Like your grades in elementary school, I don't think the rookie season necessarily correlates to future success.  Especially true for the first half.   I definitely want to see continued growth from Fields in the last part of the season.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

4 hours ago, adam said:

There are so many more, and they are funny. Surtain is a great player, but Denver doesn't have a QB. Without it they will continue to be a .500 team. They are 6-5 and have a harder path to the playoffs than the Bears do at 4-7.

They play KC twice, CIN, LV, LAC and DET. The only gimme is DET. They will have to win at least 2 against KC, KC, LV, CIN, LAC to have a chance at the playoffs. 

If anything we should be comparing who each of the players' HC is/are.  With Surtain he's in a prime location with a defensive mind like Fangio running the show.  Between Fangio and Nagy there's no disputing who is better in their respective fields.  Denver is playing well mostly due to their defensive strength (sound familar) and Surtain happens to be a part of it.  Their defense would still be good if they had chosen to draft Fields instead.  Not to take anything away from Bridgewater. He's a solid QB but...he's injury prone and they don't have much depth behind him.  Their offense is running a primarily smash-mouth style running game (go figure) with a fleet of decent RBs and Melvin Gordon as their lead. And I think Fangio understands better how to be an HC than does Nagy. 

[ASHKUM BEAR]

2 hours ago, AZ54 said:

I think these stats are showing what physically talented rookie QBs can do as a baseline.  Haskins has arm talent.   As fans I still believe we underestimate just how much these first year QBs have to learn.   I'm oversimplifying it (a lot) but it's basically backyard football early on in the rookie season and the arm (or running) talent will get you a base level of performance stats whether you are Trubisky, Jackson, Haskins, Lawrence, Jones (Daniel or Mac), Fields, Kyler Murray, etc.   I get there are fliers out there like Herbert but if I could put rookie QB stats into a control chart we'd likely see a trend of upper and lower limits for the vast majority of these QBs.   Like your grades in elementary school, I don't think the rookie season necessarily correlates to future success.  Especially true for the first half.   I definitely want to see continued growth from Fields in the last part of the season.  

Fields had a decent day the first go round with Detroit.  It would have been nice to seem him get another shot with a little experience under his belt. 

Watched part of the Ravens game last night and it would be nice to see an offense created for Fields like Roman did for Jackson.  I think Fields could be better than Jackson tbh. 

[DABEARSDABOMB]

On 11/28/2021 at 9:25 AM, Mongo3451 said:

The eye test is very tricky when you are wishing with all of your being that a player succeeds.  That is where we are with every new QB we get.  We take the wow plays and see that as glimpse into a successful future.  It's kinda like golf.  You hit a good shot, now that becomes the goal and expectation.  

What I see from Justin is mixed.  He shows promise with the deep ball and improvisational plays.  He is very weak on processing the speed of the game, as he often is late to deliver.(this was Mitch's major flaw as well)  He is also weak on moving around in the pocket.(Mitch also)  He also hasn't shown the ability to throw players open.(Mitch again) I've never read a critique on his release, but it could be a lot quicker.  His delivery is long and smooth which helps with the deep ball accuracy.  

I'm very hopeful that Justin will grow and succeed, as I did Mitch.  Both have above average arm strength and highly mobile.  One is accurate short, while the other long.  I think Justin is a little more than Mitch, so my expectation is a little more.

Justin has flashed special athleticism at times and an ability to throw the ball into tight windows down field.  That said - he holds onto it way too long and for him to take things next level things have to speed up and he has to be able to decision faster. I don't think we can come to that conclusion this year - as he needs to go through these lumps, learn, have an off-season and than we see how he emerges after next year at handling those.

The good news is - his elite athleticism means he never has to be amazing in his ability to read the D to be great, he just has to be okay.  If he is better - great.  Haskin's issue was more I think how he put in the work and other items, or more how he didn't do any of those things. I think people forget that there was some optimism about Haskins early in his career - before his off the field/work ethic issues really got in the way and made things worse.

Haskins also struggled from fact that OSU requires no real reading of the D - but he didn't have the elite athleticism to buy time, nor did he show the character, leadership, work ethic that gave Washington the hope that he could grow into those things. Fields doesn't have anywhere near those issues - other than, like most rookies (not named Matt Jones), it takes time to show whether you can/can't process the speed of the game.

Worse part for Fields is the offense often times asks Fields to dissect an entire Field vs. making the reads more rookie QB friendly.  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

On 11/28/2021 at 1:09 PM, adam said:

That is what is so weird. Fields is the model player, upstanding kid, works hard, respectful, great teammate, has all the intangibles but then on the field the stats look way to close to Haskins who could care less about studying defenses, etc. Also, it was not like Haskins had some dominant players or anything. The same season he was 2-5 as a starter, Keenum was 1-7. His RB was 48 yr old Adrian Peterson and after Terry McLaurin, the next WR was Steven Sims. Their best TE, Jeremy Sprinkle. So you could say Fields is in a better place, yet the stats don't bear that out. Either we are really overrating Fields or Nagy is so bad that he can make a great QB look mediocre. 

Stats are heavily impacted by 2 horrific games though and quite frankly - rookie QB's largely are meh, especially early. How do they trend, those things matter a lot, and what is going on between the room.  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

On 11/29/2021 at 5:11 AM, adam said:

Oh I agree, and Fields has a better arm and is more mobile. Fields upside is up there with a top 5 QB, but due to some fixable issues, he can easily be a bottom 5 QB any week. As long as he continues to improve, he has the capacity to get there. If there is a perfect example of a system helping a rookie, look no further then NE and Jones compared to Fields, Wilson, Lawrence, and Mills. Lance has not played enough to get an assessment there.

Jones can read D's.  He has special accuracy and throws guys open. I've seen enough to know Mac is going to be good - whether he'll be very good/elite, no idea, but he's got a high floor and its why I liked him a ton coming out of the draft. I also really liked Fields. Mac was the surer thing, from a downside perspective, Fields has ability to be elite if he can learn to process D quickly and clean up some of those items that quite frankly will be learning efforts given what he was asked, or more notably, wasn't asked to do at Ohio State (OSU was a 1/2 read offense - but Fields ran it much better/with more complexity than others).

I've also seen Fields shown an ability to get through progressions better than Mitch did at early stages of his career.  So that gives me optimism.  

[Alaskan Grizzly]

8 hours ago, DABEARSDABOMB said:

Jones can read D's. 

There's something to be said about Alabama players. Generally speaking any QB coming from there has been 'playing against' NFL caliber defenses, at least during practices.  So their 'experiences' put them a hair ahead of other players.  Comparatively amongst themselves, this is how it shakes out:  

Tua:  2020 stats:  1841 yds  11 TD 5 INT (64.1%) 87.1 rating   2021 stats:  1701 yds 10 TD 6 INT (70.5%) 94.7 rating

Hurts: 2020 stats:  1062 yds  6 TD 4 INT (52%) 77.6 rating   2021 stats:  2435 yds 13 TD 8 INT (60.1%) 83.9 rating

Jones:  2021 stats: 2850 yds 16 TD 8 INT (70.3%)  97.1 rating

With Jones, not only do the stats support he 'gets it' but also have to believe that having system like the "Patriot Way" and Belichick running it certainly helps.