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Week 6 Official Game Thread - GB @ CHI , +4.5, O/U 45, SUN 10/17, 12PM CT - FOX


adam

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This is a winnable game for the Bears. The Packers lucked into a win against the Bengals two weeks removed from doing the same thing against SF. 

This will be Fields' 3rd game with Lazor as the play callers. At this point we should start seeing improvement from him and the offense overall. Hopefully Hicks is back for this one.

Davante Adams now has 42 receptions on the year for 579 yards. He accounts for almost 50% of their passing offense, which is bonkers. If you can limit Adams, like the Saints did, you win easily because it looks like Rodgers throws to Adams regardless of the situation. Out of 163 attempts, Rodgers has targeted Adams 66 times. If possible, I would line up Johnson on him the entire game. 

The Packers defense is in the bottom 3rd of the league, better than the Lions and worse than the Raiders. So the Bears should score in the mid-20s. It is going to come down to the Bears defense. If they can keep them under 21, the Bears win. If they allow more than 24 they probably lose. 

The Bears have back-to-back double digit wins while the Packers have won 3 straight by a total of 15 pts with 2 GW FGs. Packers will be on the 2nd of back to back road games after playing an extra 10 minutes with OT on Sunday.  The Packers won't have Za'Darius Smith (12.5 sacks in 2020) or Jaire Alexander (13 PD in 2020), two of their top 2 defenders. That would be close to not having Mack and Johnson for the Bears.

Bears have 18 sacks, Packers have 10. INTs are 5-4 Packers. Rodgers averages 2 sacks a game, Bears average just over 3. Rodgers had 5 INTs all last year, already has 3 in 5 games. So 3 sacks and an INT would be perfect for the Bears defense in this game.

Weather for the game looks perfect, around 60 and sunny with a little wind. If it comes down to it, I like Santos over Crosby in the kicking game.

An early prediction, I am going Bears 27-23 in a close one. 

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On paper this is a winnable game, and there's reason to be optimistic to that end, but GB has owned us regardless of the records and how our seasons have gone to that point.  Of course I would love nothing better than to beat the cheese heads, but if we don't I would prefer it be a dogfight that they barely escape from rather then them just walking all over us.  These games are so hard to predict.  Rodgers does throw to Adams a lot and I can see 1 or 2 stupid easy TD's where Adams is wide open by 10-15 yards (could also insert Cobb for added salt in the wound).  I hope I'm wrong though.

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22 hours ago, adam said:

The Packers defense is in the bottom 3rd of the league, better than the Lions and worse than the Raiders. So the Bears should score in the mid-20s. It is going to come down to the Bears defense. If they can keep them under 21, the Bears win. If they allow more than 24 they probably lose. 

Mike Pettine will have some interesting perspective to offer after spending 3 seasons as the Packers DC (2018-20).  
 

Their o-line is vulnerable with Bahktiari still out.  They did well holding off Bosa a few weeks ago and TJ Watt after that. Not sure the same will be said about Mack AND Quinn.  

Rodgers is always the x-factor in these games.  Limit him and you limit the team.  

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25 minutes ago, Mongo3451 said:

 We owe them perpetually because of Charles Martin...

THIS!  THIS!  THIS!  My pure unadulterated hatred for the Packers stems 100% from that one single event.  I am beyond convinced that cost us multiple Super Bowls...  And in return, the football gods give them Favre and Rodgers.   We aren't owed it.  We need to f'ing take it.  

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2 hours ago, madlithuanian said:

THIS!  THIS!  THIS!  My pure unadulterated hatred for the Packers stems 100% from that one single event.  I am beyond convinced that cost us multiple Super Bowls...  And in return, the football gods give them Favre and Rodgers.   We aren't owed it.  We need to f'ing take it.  

Rage on with me brother!  ?

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11 minutes ago, Daventry said:

The Packers were very dirty under Forrest Gregg.  Anyone remember Stills running Payton out of bounds over the players bench?  I sure remember 

Oh I remember.  At least that was somewhat in the heat of battle and Payton braced himself.  What happened to McMahon was the epitome of cheap shot.

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11 minutes ago, madlithuanian said:

Oh I remember.  At least that was somewhat in the heat of battle and Payton braced himself.  What happened to McMahon was the epitome of cheap shot.

That was definitely the slam dunk of dirty play in that period.  To be fair, those days are long behind us.  It will always smart for me though 

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This will be a good game to flip the script and start rolling out Fields more often especially from play action.  I believe they've seen enough of our run-heavy sets the last couple games and will come out hard against the run to make Fields beat them through the air.  Based on what I saw in their last game (yes I scouted a Packers' game) they don't have the edge rushers to challenge him (as Cleveland did).  Use the heavy formations in the run game but start using the TEs on routes more like we've been waiting to see happen.  Their LBs will have to make a quick decision on run support, pass coverage, or chase Fields to the outside.   This might be a good game to use that play they ran with Jesse James in the preseason that got him a wide open TD pass, but do that with Jesper.   It's the type of play that has to be setup a few times to get the whole defense running that way and their backup DBs might not be as disciplined as they should be.     

Maybe I should just say we shouldn't expect the same running game to be as easily done this week and we're going to have to do something different to win.  

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The fact that we are dead last in yards with a 3-2 record is actually very promising. Odds are that the offense will improve significantly over the remainder of the year. Also, yards are very misleading because if you score on enough drives, have turnovers (like against CIN), you have short fields and thus don't need multiple 70-yard scoring drives. KC is 3rd with a losing record. The Giants are 12th in yards but have 1 win. 

I also think the team is not showing their full hand and that may be on full display this weekend. They haven't needed to the last two weeks, so why not wait to unleash new plays, formations, etc the most important week before the bye? Division opponent, at home is as important as it gets.

Also, the defense still has yet to field all their starters at the same time for a full game. Hicks, Goldman, Trevathan, and Gipson have yet to be on the field at the same time this year.  So both sides of the ball can improve. 

On Special Teams, Grant had a decent first game, and I can only imagine he will get better once he is in sync with his blockers. 

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9 hours ago, adam said:

 

It looks like the Packers may be down both of their starting CBs (Alexander and King). 

 

The Bears announced ROT Ifedi is going to ‘non-season ending’ IR (strained MCL).  Meaning Elijah Wilkinson will be getting more at that position.  Good or bad thing?  

And for those who care, Ledarius “Little” Mack is back on the Practice Roster. I for one am glad he’s back. 

 

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8 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

The Bears announced ROT Ifedi is going to ‘non-season ending’ IR (strained MCL).  Meaning Elijah Wilkinson will be getting more at that position.  Good or bad thing?  

And for those who care, Ledarius “Little” Mack is back on the Practice Roster. I for one am glad he’s back. 

 

Wilkinson played well after Ifedi went down. 

With Attaochu on IR, we may see Snowden get a shot and Mack backfills on PS. 

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12 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

Damien Williams out this week. Rookie Khalil Herbert’s turn.  
 

 

Man, I wish I didn't live in Alabama. Talk about an easy prop bet for an anytime TD. Herbert is easy money. He is going to either get one on the ground or in the air for sure. GB RZ defense is terrible. 

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