Playoffs, are we talking about the Playoffs? Yes, yes we are

[adam]

So I totally forgot about the 3rd WC slot (the same one the Bears slipped into last year). The difference this year is the 17th game. The extra game for the Bears was LVR, for the Vikings, it's the LAC. That extra game may end up being the difference in making the playoffs or not this year.

At this point, if the Bears can survive to the bye, with TB, SF at home, and PIT (MNF) in the next 3, they have a much more favorable schedule down the stretch. They have to win one, but two puts their odds of making the playoffs very high.

If you consider TB a loss (3-4), then SF a win (at home) - SF plays SNF against IND at home. With a loss against the Colts, they could come into Chicago at 2-4 and 4 straight losses.

Then in Week 8, the Bears go to Pittsburgh with an extra day to prepare. Pittsburgh is in Cleveland in Week 7. So Pittsburgh doesn't gain additional time between games. A win to go 5-4 into the bye would be huge. Even a loss is not the end of the world.

The Wild Card is going to come down to the following teams vying for the 2nd and 3rd slot. If you lock LAR or ARZ into WC1 (whoever loses the division), then you have 6 teams for 2 spots. 3 from the NFC South, which normally works itself out once they play each other.

WC2 - NO 3-2, still has 2x games against TB, and plays TEN, BUF, DAL, all probable losses. So if they win every other game, they are 10-7. Hard not to see them slip up once in those other 7 games to finish 9-8. That is the best-case scenario. Still 2x vs ATL and one vs CAR. WC2 probably finishes 9-8. Week 17 vs CAR. Week 18 @ ATL.

WC3 - MIN 3-3, plays DAL, BAL, LAC, GB in their next 4 games (talk about brutal). They can easily lose all 4 and be 3-7 going to SF. Just say they win 1 (unlikely), that's 4-6, then they play the Bears twice, LAR and GB again. Let's say they split with the Bears and lose to both the Rams and Packers, that is 5-9 (at best), and they win their other 3 against PIT, DET, and SF, that is a tough 8-9. They have to split with the Bears AND beat one of DAL, BAL, LAC, GB, AND beat PIT to get to 8 wins. The only way they get to 9, by sweeping the Bears and still beating someone like DAL and PIT. Possible, but unlikely. I say they finish between 7-10 or 8-9.
------------------
4 - CHI 3-3, the Bears lose to TB and PIT, beat SF, and are now 4-5 into the bye; then 4 wins against DET, MIN, SEA, and NYG and losses against BAL, ARZ, GB, and MIN makes them 8-9. They will need to beat PIT or sweep against MIN to slip into WC3 at 9-8. Beating PIT AND sweeping MIN would put them at 10-7, which seems like the ultimate ceiling. There is an extremely high probability that Week 18 in Minnesota is a playoff play-in game, win and you're in. They both could come into Week 18 both at 8-8. I just can't see MIN beating DAL, PIT and sweeping the Bears (4-0), then the Bears obviously losing 2 to MIN and losing to PIT (0-3). That's basically what would need to happen for MIN to beat CHI into the playoffs. I think the Bears finish 9-8 and none of that matters.

5 - CAR 3-3, hasn't played TB yet, 0-2, still have to play BUF and ARZ. At least 4 losses there. Depending on who wins CAR vs NO may decide which one of those teams gets into the playoffs. Playing out their schedule, they go either 8-9 or 9-8 as well. Their season may come down to beating ATL once or twice. Week 17 @ NO, Week 18 @ TB.

6 - SF 2-3, they still have ARZ, LAR x2, CIN, TEN, CHI and MIN. I have them finishing no better than 7-10 and at best 8-9. I have them losing to the Bears, beating IND this week. That is 3-4, then ARZ, LAR to 3-6. Then JAX, MIN, SEA (2-1) to 5-7. Then CIN, ATL, TEN, HOU (2-2) to 7-9. Week 18 @ LAR. They would have to beat MIN, SEA, and CIN or CHI to get to 9 wins. Odds are they split and go 8-9. 

7 - ATL 2-3, they truly are the wild card team in all of this. They have 2x against both NO and CAR, and one against SF. They probably have 3 losses against TB, DAL, and BUF, but depending on how they are viewed otherwise, if they beat MIA, JAX, and DET, and go 2-3 in their remaining 5 games, they go 7-10. Those 2 wins would be against one of NO, CAR, or SF, which would change the outcomes of those teams. Week 18 vs NO.

 

BLUF: 9-8 should make the playoffs, Week 18 may decide it. Go Bears!

[Alaskan Grizzly]

1 hour ago, adam said:

BLUF: 9-8 should make the playoffs, Week 18 may decide it. Go Bears!

And another year of Nagy and Pace…right?  ???

But really, if the Bears win…we win as fans.

[adam]

2 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

And another year of Nagy and Pace…right?  ???

But really, if the Bears win…we win as fans.

I honestly don't know as 9-8 with a first-round playoff loss would be the definition of mediocrity from 2019-2021. A losing record and two playoff losses. At some point you need more.

Also, we have to start evaluating whether the team is getting beat because they are better coached/scheme (On Nagy) or if the other team has better players (on Pace), or both. 

[Mongo3451]

15 minutes ago, adam said:

Also, we have to start evaluating whether the team is getting beat because they are better coached/scheme (On Nagy) or if the other team has better players (on Pace), or both. 

He's had 4 years to install his offense with multiple quarterbacks and were still at the bottom.  It's Nagy's scheme and play calling, along side of too many picks traded away.

[madlithuanian]

7 hours ago, adam said:

So I totally forgot about the 3rd WC slot (the same one the Bears slipped into last year). The difference this year is the 17th game. The extra game for the Bears was LVR, for the Vikings, it's the LAC. That extra game may end up being the difference in making the playoffs or not this year.

At this point, if the Bears can survive to the bye, with TB, SF at home, and PIT (MNF) in the next 3, they have a much more favorable schedule down the stretch. They have to win one, but two puts their odds of making the playoffs very high.

If you consider TB a loss (3-4), then SF a win (at home) - SF plays SNF against IND at home. With a loss against the Colts, they could come into Chicago at 2-4 and 4 straight losses.

Then in Week 8, the Bears go to Pittsburgh with an extra day to prepare. Pittsburgh is in Cleveland in Week 7. So Pittsburgh doesn't gain additional time between games. A win to go 5-4 into the bye would be huge. Even a loss is not the end of the world.

The Wild Card is going to come down to the following teams vying for the 2nd and 3rd slot. If you lock LAR or ARZ into WC1 (whoever loses the division), then you have 6 teams for 2 spots. 3 from the NFC South, which normally works itself out once they play each other.

WC2 - NO 3-2, still has 2x games against TB, and plays TEN, BUF, DAL, all probable losses. So if they win every other game, they are 10-7. Hard not to see them slip up once in those other 7 games to finish 9-8. That is the best-case scenario. Still 2x vs ATL and one vs CAR. WC2 probably finishes 9-8. Week 17 vs CAR. Week 18 @ ATL.

WC3 - MIN 3-3, plays DAL, BAL, LAC, GB in their next 4 games (talk about brutal). They can easily lose all 4 and be 3-7 going to SF. Just say they win 1 (unlikely), that's 4-6, then they play the Bears twice, LAR and GB again. Let's say they split with the Bears and lose to both the Rams and Packers, that is 5-9 (at best), and they win their other 3 against PIT, DET, and SF, that is a tough 8-9. They have to split with the Bears AND beat one of DAL, BAL, LAC, GB, AND beat PIT to get to 8 wins. The only way they get to 9, by sweeping the Bears and still beating someone like DAL and PIT. Possible, but unlikely. I say they finish between 7-10 or 8-9.
------------------
4 - CHI 3-3, the Bears lose to TB and PIT, beat SF, and are now 4-5 into the bye; then 4 wins against DET, MIN, SEA, and NYG and losses against BAL, ARZ, GB, and MIN makes them 8-9. They will need to beat PIT or sweep against MIN to slip into WC3 at 9-8. Beating PIT AND sweeping MIN would put them at 10-7, which seems like the ultimate ceiling. There is an extremely high probability that Week 18 in Minnesota is a playoff play-in game, win and you're in. They both could come into Week 18 both at 8-8. I just can't see MIN beating DAL, PIT and sweeping the Bears (4-0), then the Bears obviously losing 2 to MIN and losing to PIT (0-3). That's basically what would need to happen for MIN to beat CHI into the playoffs. I think the Bears finish 9-8 and none of that matters.

5 - CAR 3-3, hasn't played TB yet, 0-2, still have to play BUF and ARZ. At least 4 losses there. Depending on who wins CAR vs NO may decide which one of those teams gets into the playoffs. Playing out their schedule, they go either 8-9 or 9-8 as well. Their season may come down to beating ATL once or twice. Week 17 @ NO, Week 18 @ TB.

6 - SF 2-3, they still have ARZ, LAR x2, CIN, TEN, CHI and MIN. I have them finishing no better than 7-10 and at best 8-9. I have them losing to the Bears, beating IND this week. That is 3-4, then ARZ, LAR to 3-6. Then JAX, MIN, SEA (2-1) to 5-7. Then CIN, ATL, TEN, HOU (2-2) to 7-9. Week 18 @ LAR. They would have to beat MIN, SEA, and CIN or CHI to get to 9 wins. Odds are they split and go 8-9. 

7 - ATL 2-3, they truly are the wild card team in all of this. They have 2x against both NO and CAR, and one against SF. They probably have 3 losses against TB, DAL, and BUF, but depending on how they are viewed otherwise, if they beat MIA, JAX, and DET, and go 2-3 in their remaining 5 games, they go 7-10. Those 2 wins would be against one of NO, CAR, or SF, which would change the outcomes of those teams. Week 18 vs NO.

 

BLUF: 9-8 should make the playoffs, Week 18 may decide it. Go Bears!

Adam, I really want a puff of what you're smoking.  My stuff is rotten.  I don't see a snowball's chance in Aaron Rodgers' living room that we make the playoffs... 

[madlithuanian]

3 hours ago, Mongo3451 said:

He's had 4 years to install his offense with multiple quarterbacks and were still at the bottom.  It's Nagy's scheme and play calling, along side of too many picks traded away.

Agreed.  I've seen damn enough to know Nagy ain't the guy.  Anything good that happens is despite him.  And at the worst opportune time, he will insert himself into whatever because of his enormous ego and we will fail.  We deserve better.  Fields deserves better.  Hell, the freakin' McCasky's deserve better.

[BearFan2000]

This team doesn't belong in the playoffs plain and simple.   If we got to the post season I want it to be because we deserve to be there, earned it, and have a shot at making some noise or competing.  If we some how luck our way in like we did last year we'll be 1 and done like last year.  I couldn't even stomach watching all of yesterday's game do we really want to see that kind of performance in a playoff game we have no business being in?   Besides the point that to luck into that we would need to have some sort of win streak to pull it off, which to the McCaskey's may look like "progress" and we may get stuck with these clowns for yet another season of mediocrity.

[adam]

The 7th seed is not normally a playoff team, see Bears 2020, but for how bad that game was, the Bears are still in it.

If anyone was watching the other games, SF lost and looked like crap with Jimmy G back starting. They are now 2-4 coming to Chicago. Carolina got destroyed by the Giants and lost a game I had them winning. If the Bears beat SF next week, I would scratch both SF and CAR off the list.
 

That leaves NO, MIN, CHI, and ATL vying for 2 spots. Those are much better odds. MIN plays DAL, NO plays SEA tonight and TB next week and ATL plays CAR. After next week the Bears and Falcons might be WC2/WC3 going into Week 9 where the Bears get the Steelers, Falcons play the Saints (one team will get a loss), and the Vikings play the Ravens. So there is a chance the Bears go into the bye at 5-4 with one of the Wild Card spots and may even have WC2 depending on what the Saints do.

The top 2 teams in the AFC are the Bengals and Raiders, both teams the Bears have beat. The Ravens got killed by the Bengals so that game now seems a little easier than it originally was. 

The Bears have held Rodgers, Brady, Burrows, and Carr all to under 220 passing yards a game. Regardless of the outcome of those games (2-2), that is impressive. 

Obviously things have to change. Fields needs better protection and better hot routes. WRs have to be better.

 

[adam]

With the loss to SF, the Bears basically sealed their playoff fate. Now tied for 11th in the conference, would have to pass no less than 4 teams and break the tie with 2 other teams just to get the last WC spot. Just one game back from CAR at 4-5, but also only one game ahead of WFT for the 2nd worst team in the conference. 

I smell a 6-7 win season and for Pace and Nagy to be gone at the end of the season. This would make the team have less than a .500 record since 2019. The team is regressing fast and the way the defense couldn't stop one player (Samuel) does not bode well for the remaining games. The best news was the growth of Fields. He was way more decisive when to run and made some great passes. Even on the TD to James, zero separation. 

The Bears are 31st in scoring (15.4 pts), 32nd in yards (294.3), 32nd in passing yards by a country mile (157.6), and 5th in rushing yards (136.6), 29th in 1st Downs, 28th in 3rd Down %, and 29th in 4th Down %. How does Nagy still have a job. You had one job Matt and you sucked at it. 

[adam]

The defense that was top 10 already dropped out in most categories, now the middle of the road. Once the leader in sacks, now tied for 4th and falling. Pace put so much money into the defense and you rarely heard their names called for good plays. Millions in Goldman, Hicks, Nichols, Quinn, and Jackson (obviously injured) and they were really quiet yesterday. Now 3-5 and 3 straight losses. 

There is hope that the organization would fire Nagy in season, but then my assumption is Pace would stay. Either way, a loss to the Steelers would put the Bears at 3-6 going into a bye. Then the Ravens immediately after. That could easily be 3-7 with 5 straight losses, then 4 days later they play on Thanksgiving in Detroit. That is a tough game on short rest. 3-8 with 6 straight losses in back to back seasons and a prime time loss. How could Nagy survive that?

[Connorbear]

1 hour ago, adam said:

The defense that was top 10 already dropped out in most categories, now the middle of the road. Once the leader in sacks, now tied for 4th and falling. Pace put so much money into the defense and you rarely heard their names called for good plays. Millions in Goldman, Hicks, Nichols, Quinn, and Jackson (obviously injured) and they were really quiet yesterday. Now 3-5 and 3 straight losses. 

There is hope that the organization would fire Nagy in season, but then my assumption is Pace would stay. Either way, a loss to the Steelers would put the Bears at 3-6 going into a bye. Then the Ravens immediately after. That could easily be 3-7 with 5 straight losses, then 4 days later they play on Thanksgiving in Detroit. That is a tough game on short rest. 3-8 with 6 straight losses in back to back seasons and a prime time loss. How could Nagy survive that?

He shouldn't survive that but I will continue to believe the Bears do not fire during the season until I am proven wrong. 

Peace

[adam]

21 hours ago, Connorbear said:

He shouldn't survive that but I will continue to believe the Bears do not fire during the season until I am proven wrong. 

Peace

Yep, very unlikely, but sometimes to stop the insanity, you have to try something different, and they just experienced a game without him and the results weren't as bad as they have been with him there.

[adam]

Just for fun, this is what would need to happen for the Bears to make the playoffs. Two of the current WC teams face off this afternoon (MIN vs SF). 

WC2 MIN 5-5 SF-W, DET-W, PIT-W, CHI-L, LAR-L, GB-L, CHI-L 8-9
WC3 SF 5-5 MIN-L, SEA-W, CIN-L, ATL-W, TEN-L, HOU-W, LAR-L 8-9
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 ATL 5-6 TB-L, CAR-W, SF-L, DET-W, BUF-L, NO-W 8-9
2 NO 5-6 DAL-L, NYJ-W, TB-L, MIA-L, CAR-W, ATL-L 7-10
3 PHI 5-7 NYJ-W, WAS-W, NYG-W, WAS-L, DAL-L 8-9
4 CAR 5-7 ATL-L, BUF-L, TB-L, NO-L, TB-L 5-12
5 WAS 4-6 SEA-W, LV-L, DAL-L, PHI-L, DAL-L, PHI-W, NYG-W 7-10
6 NYG 4-7 MIA-L, LAC-L, DAL-L, PHI-L, CHI-L, WAS-L 4-13
7 CHI 4-7 ARZ-W, GB-L, MIN-W, SEA-W, NYG-W, MIN-W 9-8

The Bears need to finish the season 5-1 while other the other outcomes listed. Between MIN, SF, ATL and PHI, only one of those teams can win 1 extra game. If two do, depending on the team, the Bears would lose the tie breaker to SF and win the tie breaker against MIN (assuming they beat them twice). 

I don't see the Giants winning another game. They have a chance against MIA, PHI, and CHI. Same for Carolina. They have the toughest schedule, the only chance is their next game against ATL. We would rather see CAR win against ATL to knock them out. Philly has an easy schedule, but I have no clue which team is going to show up.

That ultimately leaves MIN, SF, and ATL as the only real playoff threats. The Bears have to win one of their next two, which is extremely doubtful, but possible if Fields plays. 

Thoughts?

[Alaskan Grizzly]

4 hours ago, adam said:

ARZ-W, GB-L,

As much as I appreciate your optimism I have a hard time believing we’ll win one of these two.  
 

Murray I believe will be back and Rodgers is already paying off the refs so he continue his “ownage”  of our team. Gawd it would be sweet to beat them though. 

[adam]

9 hours ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

As much as I appreciate your optimism I have a hard time believing we’ll win one of these two.  
 

Murray I believe will be back and Rodgers is already paying off the refs so he continue his “ownage”  of our team. Gawd it would be sweet to beat them though. 

Oh no, that is not optimism, they have to split those and win out to make the playoffs. I am not saying they will do that, but that is what they need to do to get in. I figure theu will win 2-3 more games and finish no better than 7-10.

However, there is a path and it is not that crazy, especially if they can steal a win from ARZ or GB. If they don't they can still make the playoffs, but the margins are super slim with tie breakers.

The Vikings loss actually made it easier for the Bears to get into the playoffs, but it is still an extremely long shot. The Bears can now go 4-2 and still somehow back in. If all the other games played out as below, the Bears would tie PHI and ATL, and would get in with a better Conference record than ATL and a better record against common opponents with PHI. So the Bears can technically lose to ARZ and GB, which is expected, but then win out against the lesser teams to finish 8-9. 

Obviously, teams like ATL or PHI wouldn't be able to win another game than I have projected here. NO could win one more as long as it wasn't against TB. So the biggest threat to this outside of MIN, ATL, and PHI is WAS. They have a great conference record and a somewhat light schedule down the road. If they win 8, they will get in with the best conference record over every team but PHI. 

After 11/28

WC2 SF 6-5 SEA-W, CIN-L, ATL-W, TEN-L, HOU-W, LAR-L 9-8
WC3 MIN 5-6 DET-W, PIT-W, CHI-L, LAR-L, GB-L, CHI-L 7-10 (5-7)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 ATL 5-6 TB-L, CAR-W, SF-L, DET-W, BUF-L, NO-W 8-9 (5-7)
2 NO 5-6 DAL-L, NYJ-W, TB-L, MIA-L, CAR-W, ATL-L 7-10 (5-7)
3 PHI 5-7 NYJ-W, WAS-W, NYG-W, WAS-L, DAL-L 8-9 (6-6)
4 CAR 5-7 ATL-L, BUF-L, TB-L, NO-L, TB-L 5-12
5 WAS 4-6 SEA-W, LV-L, DAL-L, PHI-L, DAL-L, PHI-W, NYG-W 7-10 (7-5)
6 NYG 4-7 MIA-L, LAC-L, DAL-L, PHI-L, CHI-L, WAS-L 4-13
7 CHI 4-7 ARZ-L, GB-L, MIN-W, SEA-W, NYG-W, MIN-W 8-9 (6-6)

[Alaskan Grizzly]

And they’re 0-3 since he (and OBJ) joined the team.  Imagine being in these guys’ shoes. 

[adam]

31 minutes ago, Alaskan Grizzly said:

And they’re 0-3 since he (and OBJ) joined the team.  Imagine being in these guys’ shoes. 

Yeah, Miller went from a 4-4 team to a 7-1 team, his old team is now 6-5 (2-1 w/o him) and his new team is 7-4 (0-3 w/ him). So Miller is technically 4-7 lol.

Even CLE got a win w/o OBJ, so they are 1-2 w/o him and LAR is 0-3 w/ him too. So OBJ is 5-7. 

Those are supposedly 2x impactful players and they have done nothing to improve that roster. 

[adam]

McCaffrey on IR and out for the season again. That is why you don't pay RBs. The Packers hilariously paid Aaron Jones (6th highest) who will make $9M in 2022 and potentially $19M in 2023, when they still have AJ Dillon on his rookie deal, and Dillon is better. McCaffrey has the 3rd biggest contract for an RB and has only played in 10 games in the last two seasons. He signed his new deal in April 2020 and in September 2022, he will have played in 10 of 33 games for the 3rd highest RB salary in the league. 

This knocks CAR out of any playoff contention.

[DABEARSDABOMB]

On 11/28/2021 at 1:30 PM, adam said:

Just for fun, this is what would need to happen for the Bears to make the playoffs. Two of the current WC teams face off this afternoon (MIN vs SF). 

WC2 MIN 5-5 SF-W, DET-W, PIT-W, CHI-L, LAR-L, GB-L, CHI-L 8-9
WC3 SF 5-5 MIN-L, SEA-W, CIN-L, ATL-W, TEN-L, HOU-W, LAR-L 8-9
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 ATL 5-6 TB-L, CAR-W, SF-L, DET-W, BUF-L, NO-W 8-9
2 NO 5-6 DAL-L, NYJ-W, TB-L, MIA-L, CAR-W, ATL-L 7-10
3 PHI 5-7 NYJ-W, WAS-W, NYG-W, WAS-L, DAL-L 8-9
4 CAR 5-7 ATL-L, BUF-L, TB-L, NO-L, TB-L 5-12
5 WAS 4-6 SEA-W, LV-L, DAL-L, PHI-L, DAL-L, PHI-W, NYG-W 7-10
6 NYG 4-7 MIA-L, LAC-L, DAL-L, PHI-L, CHI-L, WAS-L 4-13
7 CHI 4-7 ARZ-W, GB-L, MIN-W, SEA-W, NYG-W, MIN-W 9-8

The Bears need to finish the season 5-1 while other the other outcomes listed. Between MIN, SF, ATL and PHI, only one of those teams can win 1 extra game. If two do, depending on the team, the Bears would lose the tie breaker to SF and win the tie breaker against MIN (assuming they beat them twice). 

I don't see the Giants winning another game. They have a chance against MIA, PHI, and CHI. Same for Carolina. They have the toughest schedule, the only chance is their next game against ATL. We would rather see CAR win against ATL to knock them out. Philly has an easy schedule, but I have no clue which team is going to show up.

That ultimately leaves MIN, SF, and ATL as the only real playoff threats. The Bears have to win one of their next two, which is extremely doubtful, but possible if Fields plays. 

Thoughts?

I actually think 4-2 might work, presuming both wins are against Minnesota.  The Steelers, Niners, and Ravens games were just brutal losses - they should have won all 3 (quite frankly) but at a minimum 2 of those 3 games.  We would actually be 50/50 at this point.  

That said - I am focused on development right now, most notably Fields but really want to see Borom, Jenkins, Mooney, Johnson, Kmet, Gipson and the other young guys development as those players arrows pointing up and showing real growth is way more important to the franchise being closer to the promise land than a true rebuilding mode.  If in that path they make it interesting from a playoff perspective - great, but development is most important and I do want to temper my expectations given how many injuries the D has had.  

[DABEARSDABOMB]

23 hours ago, adam said:

Yeah, Miller went from a 4-4 team to a 7-1 team, his old team is now 6-5 (2-1 w/o him) and his new team is 7-4 (0-3 w/ him). So Miller is technically 4-7 lol.

Even CLE got a win w/o OBJ, so they are 1-2 w/o him and LAR is 0-3 w/ him too. So OBJ is 5-7. 

Those are supposedly 2x impactful players and they have done nothing to improve that roster. 

The Stafford dael was a gross overpay at the time and still is.  Rams have mortgaged everything. Best thing that could happen is McVay depends out and comes to Chicago with a fresh restart

[adam]

Can you imagine the Bears missing out on the playoffs by tie breaker or one game (when you have the tie breaker) knowing they got robbed by the officials in the Steelers game? That would be tough to swallow. That is very much in play if they finish 8-9.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

28 minutes ago, adam said:

Can you imagine the Bears missing out on the playoffs by tie breaker or one game (when you have the tie breaker) knowing they got robbed by the officials in the Steelers game? That would be tough to swallow. That is very much in play if they finish 8-9.

Oh yes that thought definitely has crossed my mind.  That and the earlier GB game of the officials definitely siding with GB (more than not) gets me really frustrated.  I don't think the TEAM is as bad as the record reflects.  The coaching? nother story.  

[adam]

After 12/2:

WC2 SF 6-5 SEA-W, CIN-L, ATL-W, TEN-L, HOU-W, LAR-L 9-8
WC3 WAS 5-6 LV-L, DAL-L, PHI-L, DAL-L, PHI-W, NYG-W 7-10 (7-5)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1 MIN 5-6 DET-W, PIT-W, CHI-L, LAR-L, GB-L, CHI-L 7-10 (5-7)
2 ATL 5-6 TB-L, CAR-W, SF-L, DET-W, BUF-L, NO-W 8-9 (5-7)
3 PHI 5-7 NYJ-W, WAS-W, NYG-W, WAS-L, DAL-L 8-9 (6-6)
4 CAR 5-7 ATL-L, BUF-L, TB-L, NO-L, TB-L 5-12 (3-9)
5 NO 5-7 NYJ-W, TB-L, MIA-L, CAR-W, ATL-L 7-10 (5-7)
6 NYG 4-7 MIA-L, LAC-L, DAL-L, PHI-L, CHI-L, WAS-L 4-13
7 CHI 4-7 ARZ-L, GB-L, MIN-W, SEA-W, NYG-W, MIN-W 8-9 (6-6)

NO lost to DAL, as expected, dropped down to 5th "in the hunt". CAR on bye this week. Need WAS, ATL, and NYG to lose this week to stay on course. Would be great if SEA figured something out and snuck a win in against SF but I doubt it.

[Alaskan Grizzly]

6 hours ago, adam said:

Would be great if SEA figured something out and snuck a win in against SF but I doubt it.

Hearing more and more from Seattle fans I know (lots of them here in AK) and they say Russell Wilson has checked out.  So yeah, don’t expect much more from Seattle.  

[adam]

After 12/6:

WC2 WAS 6-6 DAL-L, PHI-L, DAL-L, PHI-W, NYG-W 8-9 (7-5)
WC3 SF 6-6 CIN-L, ATL-W, TEN-L, HOU-W, LAR-L 8-9 (6-6)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1 PHI 6-7 WAS-W, NYG-W, WAS-L, DAL-L 8-9 (6-6)
2 MIN 5-7 PIT-W, CHI-L, LAR-L, GB-L, CHI-L 6-11 (4-8)
3 CAR 5-7 ATL-L, BUF-L, TB-L, NO-L, TB-L 5-12 (3-9)
4 ATL 5-7 CAR-W, SF-L, DET-W, BUF-L, NO-W 8-9 (5-7)
5 NO 5-7 NYJ-W, TB-L, MIA-L, CAR-W, ATL-L 7-10 (5-7)
6 NYG 4-8 LAC-L, DAL-L, PHI-L, CHI-L, WAS-L 4-13
7 CHI 4-8 GB-L, MIN-W, SEA-W, NYG-W, MIN-W 8-9 (6-6)

Based on WAS win against LV and SF's loss against SEA. SF now holds the last WC spot. Since the Bears lost to them head to head, they have the tiebreaker. If it falls out like the above scenario, the Bears miss out due to a tiebreaker against SF, but would hold the tiebreaker against PHI due to common opponents. 

So the Bears either have to run the table, including a win against GB, or SF or WAS have to lose 4 of their next 5 instead of 3. I have both of those teams losing this week (SF to CIN and WAS to DAL).